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morning all..
looks like we are headed for morning bounce.. i guess this trend of last few years of labor day opening following what last hour did .
this week..
well wall street logic will say that Hurricanes are not so bad for economy..
remember that before 911 we were in a recession and 911 brought a ton of governmental spending which was huge stimulus for economy then of course that lead to iraq war - once again a huge government stimulus --
in addition i bet that next greenspan rate hike is now on hold .. so that is also a plus for equities.
on the downside .. i went to beach on long island for holiday weekend and was paying 3.89 a gallon for premium gas!! I ask the gas attendant if prices were going down soon , he said yeah right after holiday .. by 10 to 15 cents which still leaves gas at eye popping 3.75 a gallon.. if gas price don't retreat soon then we are looking at recession number two for bush administration.
so rcptrader we ended up down the last hour wondering if we will follow the same pattern on tuesday as we did in previous years which would mean we are headed for a gap down.
looks like we are closing negative..
will be interesting to see if we gap down on tuesday
wow that is just like Bush.. he is a man of deep faith but never goes to church on sunday -he claims it is because of security issues and yet Clinton managed to go to church every sunday.
quoting steve martin
"What I Believe."
I believe in rainbows and puppy dogs and fairy tales.
And I believe 8 of the 10 Commandments.
And I believe in going to church every Sunday, unless there's a game on.
wow great posts rcptrader!
thanks -
so how long did the gaps last??
perhaps the thing to do is play the fade..
do you make any plays for tuesday?
is there any scenario which you would buy a equity or option today to set up for tuesday.
i always play on conservative side
my number one obsession is money management
you never know what will transpire over a long holiday and many large traders are already on holiday..
will they come back pessimistic and we will finally get drop we have been waiting for ?
or will they come back thinking the worse is over in terms of New Orleans ,gas prices etc.
any thoughts?
you think?? i think that the orders from executives on vacation is keep qqqq at 39
it is almost holiday so i think you are not going to see major moves one way or another until tuesday..
i love this board - and don't wanna piss anyone off but....
can we stop the political discussions - they are going to devolve into arguments and fights. a road we don't wanna go down.
there are plenty of great discussion blogs for liberals and conversatives on the web..
let's please keep this to making $$$$
i think we have a rally till wednesday or so.. perhaps up to 39.25 after wednesday we hit the before holiday drop in volume.
and market will be stuck in neutral.
seems like bounce is gaining a bit of strength maybe we will have end of day fade - it is funny this morning they were predicting 50,000 dead and a toxic soup in New Orleans and because it was only a terrible hurricane rather than a devastating hurricanee - it is good news for the market
surprised there isn't more monday morning qbing on what the market will do today
crude oil hitting $70 in limited trading..
http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx
Little Chico
thanks for the tips.. it is funny cause i use other "western" signals and then use candlesticks for verification -- from various signals i see a slight bullish correction happening, the hammer is a possible confirmation
but i do know people who think candlesticks are tea leaves and always get burned by them.
definitely worth a further discussion.
looking at the QQQQ chart - that could be a hammer which follows a bearish trend could be a signal of a bullish reversal.
being short is the way to an efficient market.. a security value is ultimately determined by real numbers.. when Mr Market gets too enthusastic it makes sense there are some investor can bet that the market is momentarily incorrect in the way they value a security.
i find it funny that average people think shorting is bad but if you notice hedge funds (i e wealthy investors) have no problem doing it and making tons of money in the process.
bollinger
i have similar thoughts at some point soon we are headed to 200 MA although i think we might get sideways leading until the holiday but this year is weird because the holiday is so late into sept. so you might be right that it will be sooner than later
or get a mac
qqqq is just bouncing off the 50 MA -- you are buying sept puts in anticipating of it breakthru 50 ma ? what is your time frame that qqqq is going to do this? i personally feel that we might be hanging around 38.50 for a few days (maybe even get a bounce)
this is just too funny- Luskin on Oil
are we going to have bounce? qqqq are right at ma 50 - just thinking out loud are we are going to get increasingly light trading as we had toward labor day? or is the bottom going to fall out?
great view -- that is how i feel.. ultimately i don't care one way or another which way market goes. because huge financial players are using QQQQ options to hedge their investments it makes the market liquid for me to easily trade in and out of them.
well i will be devil's advocate.. i am one who doesn't subscribe to the theory that the big financial markets control how the markets go and they are playing us all for suckers.
i think investors have been getting loads of mixed signals this spring and summer and that is translating into "things could be much worse so i am positive"
the good
inflation isn't a problem yet
the job market is actually improving
tax revenues have been better than expected
there was still false hope about iraq.
housing market still very strong
the bad
but now you have gas 3 dollars a gallon which is huge psychological barrier for consumers which will start to effect the economy in a negative way.
iraq is a mess that is turning into disaster
housing market on it's last legs .. interest rates going up.
so these mix signals can quickly go from into "things could be much worse so i am positive" to "what a mess" very quickly
i suspect post labor day things will turn nasty.
I agree that china is effecting market but once again US is being gluttons with oil.. the years of SUV and no CAFE standards is finally coming back to bite us..
people forget that the reason OIL prices collasped in early 80s was that US used 15% less oil in 1982 than we did in 1975 - supply and demand econ 101 - if we had a sane energy policy and aggressively got US auto makers to switch over to hybrids we could do seriously cut our gas usage in 3 -5 years.
my view is that she would generate page views for clearstation which is probably their metric of success.. so they didn't do anything about her.
well OE tends to mask market moves.. so you never know on monday we could hit a rebound and bust through 39 or drop like bucket..
i have never figured out OE... and how they effect markets post OE
if there is still problems with "her who cannot be named" we can always move to yahoo group.. i belong to a few and you can make them moderatored where only those invited can view and post.also you can easily boot someone off that is being a jerk or disruptive... also you can set up yahoo egroups to be sent to you via email (either each posting or daily digest) which is convenient.
nope going to end dead on 39.00
didn't have a chance to post this morning but i sold the rest of my 40 aug puts for 1.10 - i am still bearish and think sept is going to be rough month for qs and i am tempted to jump into sept puts..
i always feel option expiration tends to slightly warp the market.. especially a liquid options such as qqqq .. the market makers want this baby to end on an round number for example 39.00 so that there will be more out of money options. (puts and calls at 39.00 will be a wash). i always sense the market resets itself after options expirations so i am skiddish about buying next month's option right before this months expirations..
any thoughts??
i am not perma bear i buy trends.. we just had an unexplained summer rally historically that means a down fall... the inflation news today isn't good.
wow vaquero i was definitely skeptical
i am surprised at the preimium that out of money Q puts so close to option expiration.. but more power to you ( i still am holding 40 puts)
39 puts that is very risky trade considering that options expiration is on friday... if you think qqqq are going down to 39 i would be looking at 39 sept puts rather than aug
just my opinion
longtime lurker on QQQQ CS -- i really enjoy everyone's insights i hope this message board works out.. i usually play options with qqqq because it is incredibly liquid option. i am currently holding 40 aug puts which i bought a week or so ago for .35 a contract sold half on friday for .85 so i am playing with house money.. my short term target is qqqq to get to 38.50