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wow NM is certainly quiet since mocking my negative outlook for qqqqs this week
off a cliff is right
bulls and bears fought it out yesterday to stalemate productivity number came out much better than expected and oil dipped below 60dollars will be interesting to see if morning pop breaks out or fades
ken for qqqqs i am definitely following stock pickers
Because qqqqs actually trade in a tight trading range there isn't a huge premium for options.
The thing that is interesting is for a while your system was exactly what I was looking for a way to spot short term trends
that changed direction in qqqqs
and your system did work I believe 4 or 5 times in a row. During those times I made swing options trades on qqqq and all were successful. But then the rail went off the tracks which was a shame.
daaverage
i don't have set system. the past year i found a core group of stocks and just played trends.
for instance apple stock for the past couple of years would surge the week before their earnings announcement. i would buy calls and sell the day of earnings announcement. (although this doesn't really happen anymore now that apple is super hyped stock)
I just started to concentrated playing qqqqs this summer played ken's first system until it stopped working and then played ken's revised system until it stopped working
. still trying to figure out the qqqqs -
The thing about qqqqs that is frustrating is that qqqqs are an index and an index is a collection of stocks and market trends are harder to figure out than individual stock trends.
NM 500 bucks to make 5000 ?? sounds seductive. but in my opinion playing that dec 43 q is nothing more than a speculative bet- I have no idea what is going to happen 10 days out?
It is way outside my confort zone. as a rule I usually don't hold an option more than 5 days.
Once again is comes down to money management many people who play options try to hit home runs I prefer to try to hit singles and doubles - in fact if I did take that bet and it was that outcome I would only probably make 2500-3000 on that bet because my money management rules would have taken money off the table
NM sorry i haven't read your historic previous postings my loss ! Glad you have developed a successful system ! I enjoy this board because of the chart and trend ideas floating around.
as far as Option trading -I have had great success in short term option buying - I work full time and don't have time to still in front of computer all day trying to squeeze a few cents per share profit from a day trade .. I can live with occasional 30% -50% loss on an option trade because the upside is so good.
The key with Options is money management. I have seen many options players not lock in profits and hold option too long and end up with loss.
i always laugh when people pull out that 95% of all options end up out of the money - as someone that trades options this is an incredibly misleading statement - yes 95% END UP out of money but you are discounting the month(s) of trading before OE when those same out of money options can make you $$$.
your statement suggests someone buys an option and holds it until OE. this never happens! during the life of those 95% of options many of them go in and out of money .. and this is where you can make your money.
hmmm my point was most people DO believe in this rally .. that is why i am a bit contrarian now.. just like when Karina hit most on this board were extremely negative (including me) .. and lo and behold that is when we started this recent rally.
interesting.. I am not perma bull or bear but everyone and his mother is predicting an end of year rally which makes me skeptically that it is going to happen. i know some major move is going to happen in the next couple of weeks just no idea which way
hmmm so far today the high for qqqq is 41.06 as someone posted yesterday maxpain for qqqq optioins is 41.00 -- and i would expect that tommorrow OE we will be at 41.00
max pain
wow like clockwork
Ken this is incredible charting and explanations thanks
So with this ADX TRIX system - instead of going short last week as TRIX said it might have been a pause in the rally and an opportunity to increase your long position
Ken
once again an interesting system .. i like the warning and confirmation - that might elimiate whipsaws
so basically when the ADX is falling you ignore it or rising but below 30 you use TRIX solely .. but when ADX is above 30 and rising you ignore TRIX and just go with the current trend.
SM
interesting -- have you back tested this ?? perhaps this is the places where the TRIX missed the trend change calls
heading toward 41? opening at 40.80 after Dell earnings
qqqq still going up after hours
Dell disappointed but not as bad as people suspected so that equals good news.
i guess end of year rally has started
ouch ken-
i have a new axiom
i will call it the smartone axiom
any investment system will work 100% until you actually put it to use with real $$$ and then it will fail.
well ken
today was a wash so I don't feel so bad making you finally pull the trigger. that TRIX is still reading short is a good sign for tommorrow
Ken what does TRIX say now?
yes correct
the low of day in qqqq nov 40 put was .20
oy ! I wonder what TRIX will say at end of day-
Ken I am interested in where you are going to jump in
I actually missed your call at end of day yesterday.
You end of day calls are perfect place to jump in on an option swing trade because many times the markets moves in the direction of your call in that time (yesterday qs went from down .1% when you made the call to down .3% by the end of day)
In addition the next day either two things happen
1. the market makes a large move up in the morning and as a trader it is easy to get cold feet.
2. the market starts to go down and you don't pull trigger because you feel you missed the boat.
Ken
did you put buy the trix swing this time? a nov qqqq 40 put in .30 -
Google could be screwed if AOL is bought by MSN because 10-15% of Googles ad sales come from AOL traffic..
sold rest of 39 nov .55 calls 1.35 - I don't like to hold over weekend
thanks Ken and TRIX
am i wrong or does it look like the two TRIX signal start to converge when trend is about to change-
perhaps this is the signal whether the trend is going to continue or end.
Ken TRIX still working magic-
sold half of my 39 Nov call .55 for 1.10 this morning
now i am play with house's money-
I am curious Ken if there is a way to figure out reentry signals
beside your candle stick entry system which only helps you when you want to reenter .. it really doesn't give you a signal to reenter a trade
ken
is TRIX still saying long?
ken
i had faith in the TRIX!
yesterday everyone was talking short but the market held up pretty good at the end.
so far your system is great for trend changes which is great for options . i bought 39 calls on monday for .55 when you said trix was now reading long and they are up to .75 now i will hold until friday or when TRIX says go short.
ken
i don't understand why you think your system failed today... qqqq only ended down a few pennies.. while everyone else thought we were going to have horrible down day your system was staying long.
trix
well the interesting thing is everyone is talking about shorting today meanwhile we just had we had a large move today in nasdaq that everyone is failing to mention.
just wondering if you are using the same TRIX as Ken.. i believed he modified the signal
Ken
did yesterday 's TRIX signal happen after market closed ?
how far did you back test TRIX?
when did it not work?
I think with apple the problem isn't ipod sales .. they have huge hit with nano and most of the initial sales are going to be reflected in this upcoming quarter .. the problem is apple makes much higher margins on their computers but ipod is becoming larger and larger percent of their total sales.. which is putting pressure on apple margins.
Trix so far so good i did a very small qqqq call option this month using trix and made 80% return - but I am waiting to see if Trix catches the next trend change before I put full faith in Trix
Still it is looking good
Trix looking good ken -