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OPEC expects shale to finally taper off by 2025 and decline by 2030, by which point OPEC will have increased output by eight million bpd, from 33 million bpd to 41.4 million bpd.
That was OPEC's conclusion in the group's World Oil Outlook released this week. OPEC believes U.S. shale production will grow faster than previously expected, reaching 7.5 million bpd by 2021, an increase of 56 percent from the group's estimate last year.
Despite the recent market rally and current bullish streak in oil prices, the years-long competition for market share between OPEC and U.S. shale producers shows no sign of abating, and will likely continue for the next several years at least.
We will likely go into the season of peak demand when inventories begin to drop between 3.79 and 3.9 tcf this year which will be the lowest level of natural gas in storage facilities around the United States in three years, or longer depending on the final peak in inventories.
In the immediate aftermath of the roll period, the price of December futures slipped to lows of $2.847 per MMBtu on November 1. Hindsight is twenty-twenty, but it now appears the lows for natural gas in 2017 came one week earlier than in 2016.
The November-December spread is typically one of the widest of the year as it represents the period of transition from the injection to the withdrawal season for inventories each year. The winter is the time of the year for peak demand in the natural gas market and December futures tend to garner a significant premium over November contracts.
When the NYMEX November natural gas futures contract rolled to December recently, the price of December futures gave up the entire premium between the two contracts.
Natural gas has moved higher in each consecutive trading session following the gap move to the upside. In fact, as of Thursday, November 9, the price action in the natural gas market has been highly bullish as it had rallied for six straight sessions and on the final day of the week, it held its gains.
Last week, the price of natural gas did something it has not done since June it gapped higher from the closing price on Friday to the opening on Monday. On Friday, November 3 the price of the energy commodity traded to a high of $2.9980 on the NYMEX December futures contract and on Monday, November 6, the low of the session was at $3.0510.
China is a massive buyer of iron ore and the Asian nation consumes more than two-thirds of the seaborne cargos of iron ore.
China may have only 18-19% of the world's population within its borders, but it produces as much steel as the rest of the world combined each year.
With almost 1.4 billion people and a long history of extraordinary economic growth, China has been the demand side of the fundamental equation for nearly all commodities for decades.
The Asian nation's demand for the building blocks that are required for countless construction projects as wealth continues to grow is the most significant driver for prices of industrial commodities.
While Chinese growth has declined from double-digits to under 7%, the higher level of GDP means that nominal growth is even higher today than it was when the Chinese economy was growing at a rate of over 10% per annum.
Moreover, in response to an economic downturn in late 2015 and early 2016 which caused commodities prices to fall to bottoms, President Xi introduced a policy of the "new normal" to manage expectations for slower, but stable economic growth.
Teekay Tankers Ltd 2017 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Slides $TNKhttp://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4124050
Would seem so. Adding dips here. Haven’t gone long conviction yet but like prospects.
Or a reorganization altogether. There’s opportunity in this fall out in Shipping. Baltic Index red hot market wants to get behind good deals.
In the first nine months of 2017, net revenue was $50.5 million, up 112% from the same period in 2016. Our time charter equivalent date increased by 106%, while operating days were up 35%.
The daily time charter equivalent earned by our fleet during the first nine months of 2017 was about $10,000 per day, as compared to $4900 in the same period of 2016, an improvement of 106%.
In particular, our Capesize fleet earned an average time charter equivalent of about $11,000 a day.
As of September 30, 2017, our shareholders’ equity was $41.4 million, our total cash balance was $10.9 million while total debt outstanding was approximately $223 million.
As of the date of this release, our total secured debt outstanding is approximately $217 million. In the third quarter of 2017, our net revenue was equal to $18.9 million, up by 119% from $8.6 million in the same quarter of 2016.
Year-to-date in 2017, the drybulk market improved considerably compared to the historical lows in recent 2016. The Baltic Capesize Index has reached levels of more than $20,000 per day since October and a value of five year old Capesize exceeds $33 million. Just to put things into perspective about the Capesize market, the relevant 20 year averages are time charter equivalent of $33,500 per day for the rates, ten times more than the lows of last year and more than 50% higher than the current levels and vessel value of $48 million and that is 1250% more than the lows of last year and also 50% higher than the current levels.
Operating profitability, EBITDA was equal to $14.2 million and $17.7 million in the third quarter and the nine month period of 2017 respectively while net income was $6.5 million for the quarter of 2017 and net loss for the first nine months of 2017 was $3.1 million as compared to net losses of $5.9 million and $17.7 million for the respective periods of 2016.
$SHIP fleet benefited significantly from stronger Capesize rates and this was reflected in our operating results. Net revenues were $18.9 million in the third quarter 2017 and $50.7 million in the nine months period of 2017, up by 119% and 112% compared to the respective periods of 2016.
That’s incredible news for the sector.
Thought I? heard audits were ready they were just executing closing agreements, that that what you heard?
I’ll do some research on this one and any connection. Thank you.
The Baltic Exchange also operates as a maker of markets in freight derivatives, a type of forward contract known as forward freight agreements (FFAs) traded over the counter.
Re Index: The supply of large carriers tends to remain very tight, with long lead times and high production costs, the index can experience high levels of volatility if global demand increases or drops off suddenly.
A change in the Baltic Dry Index can give investors insight into global supply and demand trends, and is often considered a leading indicator of future economic growth if the index is rising or contraction if the index is falling because the goods shipped are raw, pre-production material, which is typically an area with very low levels of speculation.
The market has been extremely though for dry bulk shipping firms for a long time, possibly the full last 7 years.
During late 2015, early 2016 the situation was at the low point, with a record low BDI and huge cash flow losses for the firms.
This seems like a major turning point for the industry or so it would seem.
They have made overtures in their statements previously that expanding into verticals will help streamline supply chain, improve margins and competitive positions. Great concept if they establish the platform.
Primarily upstream in terms of proving and producing new reserves. Most projects to replace reserves take 3-10 years to come online. They are not being invested in largely due to low oil prices.
Begs the question if cash flow isn’t covering debt. How do these companies end up in this predicament?
Very positive I? agree. Shipping is at historical lows but sentiment is changing. Doing more DD here to determine catalyst for valuation. I? think debt levels are biggest concerns thus far. But value prop seems strong here.
Revenue from dry bulk vessel operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 was $171.8 million as compared to $142.9 million for the same period during 2016. The increase in dry bulk revenue was mainly attributable to (i) the increase in TCE per day; and (ii) an increase in available days of our fleet.
Dry Bulk Segment EBITDA was $11.8 million in comparison with Q2 EBITDA of $12 million. The decline in EBITDA was due to a 3 vessel decline in the fleet offset by a $318 per day TCE increase. Interest Expense for Q3 was $21.38 million, meaning that EBITDA failed to cover interest expense by more than $9 million.
The Board has declared a dividend of $0.02 per share for 3Q2017 to shareholders of record as of November 27, 2017. The payment of the dividend is expected to take place on or about December 12, 2017. Since its establishment in late 2013, NAO has paid dividends for 15 consecutive quarters, totalling $2.65 per share, including the dividend to be paid December 12, 2017.
NAO pursues a conservative financial policy. At the end of 3Q2017, the net debt[2] per vessel was $9.8m. NAO has in place until early 2020 a non-amortizing credit facility of $150m.
NAO is committed to protecting its underlying earnings, dividend potential and strong balance sheet. We shall endeavor to safeguard and further strengthen NAO's position in a deliberate, predictable and transparent way.
Revenue of $23.67M (-48.4% Y/Y) misses by $5.96M.
Nordic American Tankers (NYSE:NAT): Q3 EPS of -$0.34 misses by $0.08.
These types of companies could be nice bolt ons the bitumen platform (should it get done).
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“On April 3, 2017, we signed an agreement to cancel this existing time chartered-in contract, and, at the same time, we entered into an agreement to charter-in a 61,400 dwt, 2013 built Japanese vessel for approximately four years (having the same redelivery dates as the aforementioned canceled charter) with options for two additional years.”
“We transport a broad range of major and minor bulk cargoes, including but not limited to coal, grain, ore, petcoke, cement and fertilizer, along worldwide shipping routes. As of September 30, 2017 , we owned and operated a modern fleet of 48 Supramax/Ultramax dry bulk vessels. We chartered-in a 37,000 dwt newbuilding Japanese vessel that was delivered in October 2014 for seven years with an option for one additional year”