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The AMGN KOL's not the same group ADXS is working with.
Common sense tells me AMGN likely had anything they wanted covered by non disclosure, not in AMGN head space, but it'd be a longass list. Aside from that, ADXS has receivables due from AMGN so any violation would be punitive in that regard. All in all the smart thing to do is double vet any statements to steer clear of damages. That is one of the reasons why this is material.
If you believe they have to wait until February 8 to make any statement at all I will have a gentlemen’s bet with you.
If thats what you really think my point is, which you know its not, because any idiot can say anything outside the bounds of restrictive covenants. With that said, the Idiot King hasn't said a word. Must be selecting his words very carefully for max impact. You think? Seriously, I do expect a statement between now and Feb 8 however, just to be clear.
I won't suggest, I'll state for a fact the deal covenants expiring Feb 8 is material. Thus, ANY disclosure with respect to AMGN/NEO is subject to the covenants. Its not too broad. Its specific as hell. After all, 10 days and not a word. Suggests to me they're being VERY CAREFUL about violating the covenants of the deal expiring Feb 8.
I'm down with that.
Dark until Feb 8, while a possibility I suppose, in my view the greater probability is that whatever response ADXS has before that date will be a shade of gray between black and white, influenced by the deal covenants. Thats what lawyers get paid to do.
Heres a metaphor to illustrate the point. The AMGN handcuffs are on until Feb 8. Since I deal in probabilities, that tells me with 100% confidence any response by ADXS before that date will be impacted to some degree. Private talks would be impacted as well. The significance or lack thereof, will be, with 100% certainty, colored by ADXS interpretation of the deal covenants. Its a material issue, no matter what level of significance you ascribe to it. Thats my point.
Good stuff bro.
Glad you're positive. After all, what's a little pepper in AMGN nose when the path forward is clear cut.
Expired, finished, over, dead.
Where you getting the other shit? Dont bother answering that, please.
Re implications: AMGN doesnt need to say a damn thing. ADXS does. Are they restricted to when and what can be said before Feb 8? Then.totally free and clear? ADXS could hide behind the CTO if it governs and their purpose is suited until Feb 8. Or not.
That's it. Like I said the plot thickens.
No, I meant precisely what I said. The deal expires Feb 8. The actual implications to coms between now and then are unknown to me. Carry on.
BB, found some info, actually stumbled across it. Reimburseables from AMGN were 7.5 mil in 17', 5.8 mil in 18' according to a link posted by traderbx. Another interesting bit I missed, but apparently the deal doesnt expire till Feb 8, 2019. Now, there could be all manner of communication technicalities to be observed until deal expiry. The plot thickens. Lol
Maybe my question ought to have been addressed to anyone. It was unfair to put BB on the spot like that because the answer requires DD, of which my effort turned up nothing conclusive for my taste. All in all just another fundamental data point, but it goes to increased cash burn for what its worth.
BB, do you know the annual projectable cost of the NEO trial? The reimburseables, assuming they are in large part an AMGN thing, are a little murky, and since the execution phase of the trial is new, it likely has a different cost than the setup. Anyhow, I am curious.
The takeaway from Friday volume is it dropped right off around the 3 mil mark. Maybe, just maybe, a meshing of covering and selling perhaps. Its been proffered AMGN dumped their stake. Maybe... If the former, the ammo for a squeeze has been vastly reduced should there be anything less negative than the market may anticipate associated with ADXS response. If the latter, it simply punctuates AMGN decision. The underlying fundamental issues, separate from the expected ADXS reaction to the AMGN dump dominate the outlook however. The inevitable r/s with dilution will artificially redistribute sh equity. Without improvement in the monetization of assets, the contrivance won't hold up. Certainly not to the level required for current and LTSH to recoup losses. This is not directed at the core believers who have consistently ignored the devolution of prospects and rearranged their investment thesis to fit the desired outcome. Nor is it directed at the core disbelievers, while being right so far, have a highly biased view as well. More so, this is directed to the conversation for those looking to make a reality based analysis of the future prospects without prejudice, insofar as that is possible. While possibilities are virtually endless, the fundamental issues limit the scope to practical considerations of survival for ADXS. That said, the silence from ADXS speaks to the need to consider their options before taking the microphone. Then and only then, is there a possibility of enough meat on the bone to make a more informed decision to support investors confidence or not in my view.
"The first casualty when war comes is the truth".
This shit storm has no foreseeable near term silver lining, save perhaps a tradable % dead cat bounce. The fundamentals have been nuked. Wal Mart having an off season sale on arm floaties. Whodda thunk it?
Happy trails!
gf, you're a keeper. Hope this turns around, really.
Mort
How about an Irish Wake?
At the end of the day, it is only money, but little solace when you're life is wrapped up in the outcome and it utterly fails
Sorry for your loss though. Guess the AXAL stay of execution was part of this AMGN thing. A WAG on my part.
You're bad!
If true, wow.
Your Happy Hour inspired me to cook up a batch of egg nog. Gawd, it's good. The only surefire way I know of to sit down and an hour later be 5 lbs heavier without eating a thing.
"Ohh, the humanity"
So, everybody get it figured out today? Poems are good and sometimes necessary to convey content of a conflicting nature that has a decided bias in its message intent, check.
gf.. simply not to be trifled with. check check
catt fitted with arm floaties for own safety check
ig said floaties not material check
hov analyzed the floaties, 50-60% they work check
Bourbon predicted floaties recall, worth .28 fair value check
blue said floatie fair value @ 173.28 check
hdwr thought the whole thing funny check
raja faith restricts floaties, cool for everyone else tho check
billy can't believe floaties so cheap. Buy more check
fb doc's fault damn things fail 1/2 the time
ub recuses himself. Off season Walmart floatie sale check
Z zombies don't need floaties
All in jest. Grab a cocktail. Have a good weekend.
Splendid door choice. Bon appetit.
Select the right door and behind it a big prize awaits.
And the Nobel prize for poetry goes to GF!
Short answer is no u cant buy calls for 30 days. That said there are get around strategies whereby you sell common, buy the calls, buy the common again, if sequence is appropriate. Dont talk to broker as only source. Talk to tax professional.
In N'awlins its called jumbalaya. Still holding out for a GF layover in NOLO for gumbo and other goodies on the way to the party. Maybe K gives us a reason today.
There ya go, from the horses mouth. Happy New Year.
My wag would be mgmt, employees, bankers, vendors, and collaborators. According to a poster who spoke to K recently if I remember correctly, K said watch for the catalysts in 19'. It would be great for sh's if good news materializes above the obvious negatives to the extent a net good was achieved.
Not sure what time period you're talking about but ADXS carries an accumulated deficit of $349,000,000+ as of July 31 2018. Doesn't mean some measure of success won't be achieved at some point but clearly they've come up a little short thus far.
SP proves that when underwater, the money is lost for other uses, has 0 value. Agree that it doesn't in itself prove K to be a conman. A man of questionable judgement so far, in my view, yes. He may turn out to be a hero, but there a tuff road ahead to get there.
catt, as a poster given to sometime extreme speculation, I tried to advise and protect you with soft admonitions over the years, but to no avail, as you have continued on the road. Me, while tempted at one time, never touched warrants, and stayed so far in front on the common with my hedge, I lapped you. Still have the long side of my hedge position courtesy of ADXS mgmt, free of charge. So, I ask you, who's traveled the gravel road here? Not me amigo.
Tax selling typically reaches crescendo in mid to late December as sellers with significant losses typically aren't timing the wash rule with a pos performer like ADXS. They're simply paring down or getting out. If one is viewing the continued devaluation as a temporary calendar event, consider that the data expected in 1H19', by most observers anyway, likely is not of ground breaking variety. I'd characterize it as a distraction from the basic problem with ADXS, too many horses to feed, not enough cash. For pro investors, given the evidence of 0 interest at these levels, why would they buy higher? The answer is not unless there is new evidence that comes to light of an investable nature that outweighs the absolute certainty of dilutive offerings. Off the top, with the usual caveat of a deal being struck, I'd guess a possible milestone from AMGN on NEO data as a possible catalyst. Thats a WAG for sure, and totally dependent on the timing vis a vis recap proxies and the like. The continued bludgeoning of the sector plays into it as well. AMRN and ACAD raised into the bloodletting and are getting punished but they're pretty good plays and will likely recover. ADXS not even in the same church, let alone pew. Good luck.
Looking forward to sharing an amazing table with gracious people and food prepared by a gifted chef.
Happy Tday!
That's called sticking with what works if the alternative doesn't. Lol...
When a company executes, which you conveniently left out, in this case meaning already having FDA approval, wrapping up the FDA mandated follow up trial leading to the speculation in the stock, and then delivering data which may or may not end up being as good as they suggest, is the real story. The issue has 0 to do with a BP pulling the strings to artificially derail the stock in order to buy it. Nor does it have a thing to do with an inability to stay on focus, nor does it suggest the base valuation of the company before the run up was unwarranted. ADXS executes, the opposite theory of catt goes away, the market prices in the development and away it goes.