Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Yeah, in a broad sense, the IPO metaphor works so long as what they do going forward to mitigate the past mistakes, develop a workable strategy and don't kill existing shareholders in the process is what you bet on.
Safe to say the 3 mil block @ end of day was rebalancing. I'd hazard a guess a substantial number of shorts covered today. Thats all I got.
And if its not, no getting bought. Derisk it and move it now.
Cash? Easy one...Not nearly enough
Does the platform work? Let somebody else derisk the proposition.
Conclusion? Gee, generate cash without diluting me again or sell it. I'm in the $5-10 camp, make some nice money, I'd miss Girlfriend tho...
What we know is the BOD historically says yes to raises at any level. What we do know, that while the cast of Mgmt characters has changed 3x in less than a year, the core BOD has remained, and they are not looking past their nose on one level, yet on another, they are oblivious to the market reality as it pertains to how the market values ADXS IP. My point is and has been the prestige of the board position is enough, with all expenses reimbursed and options, which they've chosen to accept as payment for services rendered, at least up to the last annual Report I saw, to sit back and let the 3x mgmt teams of the last 11 months do their thing. You mention at what cost they sit and do nothing? Post split shares trading at what .01ish, with certain further dilution approaching lest a deal being inked for a shitload of money. Thats the cost to current investors. And so long as new investors are willing to pony up a bio bet, the cost to current investors will continue to rise.
I don't disagree they will gain with a deal higher than their exercise levels. The point is they can afford to wait, just as 1/2 the board didn't buy some token common. They're along for the ride, however long it is. Sidransky the only guy that matters, and it's clear he is willing to put up with any scenario to move ADXS forward, however long it takes
Another angle is BOD largely have made their bones financially. But, their CV isn't complete without a bio deal. It's a cocktail party or pride perspective, combined with the fiscal patience that relative financial security provides, and without out a tenacious adversity to the programs of CEO, makes for a cushy job. And, of course the options.
I like the concept and the $$$.
Absolutely spot on. You're rocking the clarity. Thanks.
I have to say, Dew made an appraisal based on his research and experience. Right or wrong he can back it up. You should hope to achieve as robust a rationale.
Good catch on the 45 days... I guess I was dreaming!
Molly isn't getting paid a boatload of cash to sit on an Invoice that is an A/R. If its me, its ready to send out immediately on completion of the terms. The question is whether any $$ is due. As for timeliness, net 45 as of today we are at July 21 for payment. July 31 is EoQ3. Despite contract language, big companies, in my experience anyway, a/p policy is governed by their own controls and schedules. The variables are legion, but after being in the system and knowing exactly what is required for a valid Inv, its mostly how close our a/r is with their a/p staff. Most Cos with a decent relationship with suppliers are in the 45-60 net range. So it is very possible any a/r will remain in this Q that way unless a check is deposited. Again, we know AMGN is good for it, its about whether they're contractually obligated at this time.
475 million... is the number I was reaching for.
Au contraire, with even a Qs worth of milestone $$, The cash runway has lengthened by 50% under KK. THAT is a significant win for us. Investors likely to follow THAT money with speculative cash. That is 5% of the deal if it's a 400 mil milestone deal. Not sure why I'm stuck on that number, so if it more, I welcome the proof. Seems to be a fair number at any rate. Doc backloaded everything so it's feasible from that perspective.
Yup, well said. It was intentional how they've handled it thus far.
What we do know is they have dosed the 1st patient with no $$ milestone pr. As you suggest, there are myriad possibilities to explain it. The most obvious usually is the right call. Historically, ADXS has spent and spent with no regard to outcome, at least until the 24% expense reduction. This value milestone is significant however, so much so that they have been questioned about it, or voluntarily addressed it in every call since the deal. One of the legs the tripod approach of ADXS stands on. Yet, this value driver of all value drivers remains cloaked in a nothing burger. I don't care about the reasons they and this board manufacture to explain no accountability. Thus far they have 0 in the win column. Now that the first significant milestone of the deal is reached, the pesky issue of value derived from the milestone is of no consequence? Considering they sold 20% of the company at a valuation of 20 million, it is not out of the realm of logic for a market driven company to pr some details of value drivers. That is, if there any in the early stages. After all, we know who negotiated the deal. Keep an eye out for the 10Q
With ADXS, what it looks like is usually the case. What it looks like is there is no milestone. Since there is no pr, and seemingly the next opportunity to find out is the 10Q, we wait and see. Backwards supposition to support a disappointing outcome, in this case, no milestone payment news, is not my stock and trade, as it is for many. Show me the freaking money.
and so far a huge improvement over Lombastic and O'ComeOnNow and NoMore.
I like em... can I offer Lombareticent in parentheses alongside Lombastic?
KB for King. Dilly Dilly!
The dreamers? Hah!!! You're the /king/queen of dreamers, nothing wrong with that, mind you. I, on the other hand am one of the least given to dreams on this board. An expectation that a milestone, if there is one, would be announced by a company in dire need of validation in the marketplace is biz 101. You are right on one thing in my view though, the hindsight reasoning employed by many here, a consequence of rationalization to explain disappointment, leaves open the issue to play out.
Show me the freakin money. There is one thing and I mean one thing that will move the needle, absent "the cure", and its $$$... It is amazing to me they haven't announced a milestone, if there is one. The dosing is the focus of 22 months collaboration with the most successful biotech of all time, and their only expense sharing partner, then nothing? The market is waiting for the other shoe to drop. Vol has dried up. No milestone, we end up red, not from the manipulators either, simple lack of demand stemming from lack of value and no lack of disappointment. I'm scratching my head here, as is the market.
K retargeted the spear which ADXS uses in its capacity as a research tool for developing value for pharma. That he decisively made public the redeployment as his 1st action makes me think his ROSG career, shaped by the failure of their main product to provide value, earned him the bones to make radical change in a new direction yesterday. ADXS is nothing more than a research org searching for value that pharma will pay for. As such K has redeployed for the targets of importance. He's looking at the now, as the necessary step to get further down the line. This 24% expense reduction extends the cash another Q. The bluff or not on PH3 AXAL reflects the current market view of the science. By bringing new product along, the element of speculation returns for investors, which in the absence of value delivery is the ONLY reason to own the stock. So, K looked good yesterday, weaving a plausible tapestry of vision with the resources at his command. Keep in mind the culture at ADXS had stalled, now with heads rolling, it's back to the get it done or else culture. So, a new ride has begun.
Got it on phone...not my notebook. Go figure.
Anybody getting the webcast live? Or, is it a silent webcast? Thinking the Canadians are up to something. After all they passed thru Princeton on the way to Washington.
I don't know how to find the data for ADXS. It'd be interesting to see it.
Re: median salary vs exec comp
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/05/median-employee-pay-at-tech-companies-amazon-alphabet-facebook.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cstory%7C&par=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
"The revelation of that stark difference comes courtesy of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which required companies to disclose the ratio between their median paid employee's compensation and their CEO for the first time this year."
Bermuda, always wanted to check out whats left of the mail sorting facility the brits used in WW2 to open, examine and reseal all the mail on the Pan Am route to and from Europe. Pretty amazing feat, considering they tested for invisible ink, code, money, etc, with a very quick turnaround time and the volume of mail. Its worth reading about if so inclined.
I was on Sell the beech before the weeks end as soon as I saw it. Truly it'd be TGIF.
There is little doubt that kb is being brought up to snuff on the cash and milestone events by Sara's second. TL, having nowhere near the cash compensation package of kb, approx 40% less cash per annum, even considering its for 10 months, is a different situation. Still, Tony's time not valued as highly as KB's. So, I'm assuming he is likely less enamored of volunteering his take on things, beyond that which is strictly required as part of his job to maintain whatever contractual compensation may be owed. In other words, Tony's rolodex access is compensation based. Tman is done, Its a new era.
If you say so. I'm all for an upside surprise
Under promise over deliver... Hope springs eternal.
Hell, he never said anything else worth remembering. I'm sure you were in the upod camp when he said it though. Wonder what Kenny will say.
Lombardo stated twice EMA approval is a 13 month process, that I'm aware of anyway, one of which I pasted below. See bolded sentence at end of quote. The other time he said it was his 1st or 2nd webcast. Couldn't find it on the ADXS website. The normal caveat applies here. Be great to see it sooner than later.
March 12, 2018 - Lombardo webcast
Last month, we were delighted to announce the submission of a conditional marketing authorization application[color=red][/color] through the European Medicine Agencies for our lead LM technology product candidate, AXAL, for the treatment of adult women who progressed beyond first line therapy for persistent, recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer. This is a significant milestone for Advaxis as it represents our first marketing application for a product approval of our LM technology. This is an exciting opportunity for Advaxis and we look forward to potentially bringing this lifesaving therapy to women suffering with metastatic cervical cancer. Despite advances in diagnostics and preventative vaccines, 24,000 women in Europe die each year from metastatic cervical cancer.
The MAA package, we have prepared for EMA evaluation includes the totality of the data, including Phase 2 results from GOG-0265 as well as supportive data from other clinical trials evaluating AXAL. This will be a 13-month review process.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4155747-advaxis-adxs-ceo-tony-lombardo-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=3
You're thinking same. Good post. My post written while you were posting. Posted here for reference.
Did you consider that ADXS in the wake of the pre submittal fiasco learned that with the help of their Euro counterparts charting the course thru the regulatory swamp, and having actual historical data inhand, the real timeline was typically in the 13 month range? Then, that might be the reason TL stated twice several months apart unequivocally the submission was a 13 month process. At the time there was rampant speculation about under promise over deliver from Tony the Dealmaker by the cheerleaders. Again, because you or me want to see it, doesn't make it so.
tc... if you take issue with "the exception makes the rule", fine with me. A lousy investing thesis, and its most always trotted out when the investment has gone really bad against you. But, in the realm of anything is possible, most anything imaginable is possible. Is it probable a white knight steps up and we're made whole? More likely a variant of that possibility below the gold standard that some envision here, ultimately emerges, so long as the stock gods are with us. Anyhow, it was good day yesterday for ADXS and I got a few miles on my Roubaix. Like to see two in a row, ADXS green.
The exception to the rule makes the rule. Typically those who use the logic of "it happens" do so from the bottom of the hole while looking up for daylight as a way out. Not much of an investing thesis, but your point is taken.
I have received no response from kb either. For now, I hope he's taking care of business vs wasting his extremely well compensated time on the likes of me. That said, my email was a paragon of warm fuzzy, welcoming him and wishing him success. I'll offer that I sent the same email to tl, got the same no response, and felt about it exactly as I feel about this one.
Noelle new title includes Govt Affairs. Got it from the bottom of the Berlin pr off ADXS website. Begs the Q, was there one before?
CONTACT:
Advaxis, Inc.
Noelle Heber, 609-250-7575
Sr. Director Corporate Communications and Government Affairs
Heber@advaxis.com
Bio is an incestuous little world. When in doubt, stay close to home seems to be the modus operandi. Haven't looked into the family tree yet, but if your claim is true, its not surprising. My positive post for the day is, maybe we just needed a guy to dot the i's and t's. Suuwweeeet!
Ig, far from exactly what we needed on the face of it. Berlins pedigree is tarnished by Rosetta for certain, maybe redemption awaits. Be a good story. Not a lot more to say at this point.
Preliminary reaction here. Berlín, Princeton undergrad, UCLA grad Lawyer, 1st 20 years M/A, Corp law with law firm(5yrs)and JnJ & affiliates, Not a science guy per se, Wasn't afraid to leave the mothership for the chance to be his own guy. Out of the box got the Rosetta job. Not a rock star for sure, may be his chance to break out from the pack. If BP ain't biting on the IP, it won't matter who's in there.
gf, I take your point. Especially about being an owner. From my perch, I've always believed the squeaky wheel gets the grease. It can backfire occassionally, but if Sid gets a couple hundred emails, it gets his attention at the least. Being a smart guy, he knows that the IT folks can clean up and forward known contacts to another acct, everything else goes into the trash. Annoyance, certainly. Fatal, absolutely not. But, if I'm Sid, I'd be telling somebody to throw a bone out there to take the heat away from me. Worst case, silence continues, Sids pissed at retail, BFD, it comes with the turf. Best case, a prime time address to ADXS nation! Btw, not endorsing tc's letter version, nor am I sheetcanning it. If it works for someone, use it. If it doesn't, write something else. Or, don't write anything at all. Happy Friday!