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"I still expect great things to happen here so do not misinterpret my comments."
Can you be more specific livefree? I'd like to see what you are hoping for as wells as expecting from IPIX. Some wise posters have pointed out that one of the shared failures on our mb is that too often many of us seem to have confused hopes and expectations. I know I have.
Many thanks to you both (i.e w/grumpini) for proving intense "public education" for the remaining longs who usually (and I may just be speaking about myself) know less than we think we do about what is really happening.
Officially, I am blown away. I read what you did, mostly, but you seemed to get maybe a ton more than I. Maybe you read more critically; once I taught speed reading, not such a good thing for a little bio investor, I guess.
As always, an education. Thanks for the detail and perspective, and of course the candor.
I don't fault Leo for taking the covid chance, though you are right in your comments about hope as opposed to facts. My most recent let down was that Leo didn't dilute a goodly amount when the pps was in the 40-50 cent area. That was a surprise.
Nice educational post on covid and FDA, very relevant to the IPIX covid trial and all the upcoming Ph3s (Ok, I can hope). FDA has long been a real anomaly, some great staff buried in an underfunded agency, too often on the side of BP, rather than the US population There are some easy fixes. I have no faith they will be accomplished by this or any other administration.
1. Stop the revolving door between FDA and BP. Any FDA employee (particularly to include political appointees) can not leave FDA for a private pharma job until 5 years have passed.
2. Salary raises for the top scientists so they are not tempted to sell out to BP.
3. No one voting on drug committees with conflicts of interests. The system is now that you declare your interest, and then vote. Pretty lame.
4. Force FDA (and CDC too!) to use FEMA's communication policy. Smart scientists should not be deciding what and how to inform the public. They mess it up and make the agency seem like a crew of nutcases, which it is not.
5.FDA needs the authority to review vitamins and all medical treatments (for example using Ivermectin to treat covid). This is so obvious, and yet it remains undone year after year. BP lobbies, citizen consumers do not.
Thank you, grumpini for the thoughtful response, especially opening up the knowledge umbrella that smart money spreads, and that we here on the mb do not normally do enough of. You're right, especially, about the Virus article. It was quite a tell, which apparently was too soft for so many others (and me, of course) to hear.
The mb can give lots of saved dd time, but the old adage of "Do your own dd" still holds. Lots of tells just slipped past too many of us and we were tone deaf to those wise trader/investors that were listening more intently and letting the rest of us know their strong feelings.
I'm still modestly hopeful of B for OM, and even the whole Alfasigma venture, but have pretty much dropped Kevetrin out of my perspectives; and that is quite a shame, and is one that Leo wasn't very wise to just fritter away. The shame is we will probably never know.
What is your future take on B for OM and the AS venture, grumpini?
Not sure I buy the "intensive monitoring that ushers in a bio-security state" contention but I do appreciate the BBC sign up spot. Really good stuff, slick one.
My take on why the pps is .067
A friend of mine was a broker and was being critical of my addiction to little bios. He said, "The smart guys always know more than you and always win." Lately I've been dwelling on that. For example, when I wrote why I was still an active long I would usually mention the potential of B for ABSSSI. Good numbers, an IV limited flexibility, but still a good bet. While I was musing the smart guys looked more deeply and found competitors in late stage testing with pills. I posted this a week or two ago. Ok, now B for ABSSSI is no longer much of a top product. They was it was an IV and they saw IPIX had no lab to develop other treatments modes.
Mover over to IBD treatments for ulcerative colitis and other IBD treatments. The smart guys looked around and saw IBD treatments for ulcerative colitis in later stages. One just posted an effectiveness of 30% or so, as I recall. Each breakthrough cuts the chances that Alfasigma would want to buy the IPIX IBD franchise, of course assuming success in its own UP study.
They look at Kevetrin and think, "Hmm, an nice early indication of cancer effectiveness," but still a couple of years away, assuming a crash was put on by IPIX right now to get it through the Ph2 and Ph3.
So the smart guys see a nice spit and swish with goo, not great numbers for OM. They know BP wants to nail this cash cow down, and little IPIX sits there. NO lab, no real staff, a CEO who is obviously bright enough to find good potential products but who has trouble pulling the trigger in time. Here we are, the smart guys say. .0676 and are not falling over themselves to get in.
And finally, the smart guys saw what TIAB and others saw re B for covid was an IV, so the chance of getting non-institutionalized patients before severe organ damage was lessened when an anti-viral with anti-immune properties might really be helpful, if only....
As I type the smart guys are still out there, but my recent faith in B for ABSSSI and B for UC has slipped lots. I hope I am wrong.
Bizzy, you still around? Promise I will make no licking wound type jokes.
Time marches on with new and effective IBD treatments. This one for Ulcerative colitis. Still room for B for IBD issues, but the standing in place costs time value. If Alfasigma has a successful testing, does this diminish the chance they will want to buy our B for IBD franchise, in whole or in part? Who knows? Good news for patients, not so hot for IPIX.
https://www.gastroenterologyadvisor.com/meetings/acg-2021/upadacitinib-safe-and-efficacious-for-ulcerative-colitis/
'"Now the vaccines are shown to be almost useless....."
Bullshit. DANGEROUS bullshit.'
Yeah, LR, I say the same thing. In this instance you are more eloquent.
"Now the vaccines are shown to be almost useless"
How can you say that? Most that die ae unvaccinated, that counts for something. Maybe everything.
Sorry, r/IPIX on reddit
Sorry, r/IPIX on reddit
I just saw a post by crashco01 on the rReddix cite. Does anyone know about the new patent applications by IPIX that were mentioned? I really can't get the hang of that site.
Why not, at .07 I am still here with you and lots of others. But I'm not sure why the the concern with WHO and a covid treatment possibility. I'd love to see a site, I've looked all around and found nothing. Maybe a better researcher, of which there are lots here, can find a site.
"So what happens if Brilacidin is shown to be effective on 15 of the 20 viruses that are being tested and then WHO decides to run Phase 2 studies on the 5 most promising?"
Probably nothing, as in vitro studies don't amount to much, just indications that a Ph1 or maybe even later, a Ph2 could pay off, if someone wants to take a chance funding a new Tamiflu. IPIX does not have the money and has the thinnest track record of getting outside licensing (just AS, right?). I am trying to be realistic. And unlikely the WHO would fund anything unless the Chinese gave the go ahead, see (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/05/china-global-influence-who-united-states/611227/), and why would they?
That said, of course funding for wide-scoped anti-viral trials of Brilacidin would be great. Just not likely to happen, imo.
Ok, kfc, let me ask you, what are your dollar value estimate(s)?
"No serious pharmaceutical company would pay even $5 million for this sad shell now."
C'mon, Spots. The AS approval, if it comes to that, will boost the whole IBD franchise, maybe even getting a purchase offer from AS. I don't see why you write off B for OM, it may be an adjuvant drug, it may not be, but it has a decent chance at getting through a Ph3 trial; and given the general failure of the competition even a modest success of a spit and swish with no huge SEs could be a good addition to every hospitals drug formulary as well as to most doctor's offices. Lots of bucks there and lots of happy patients undergoing chemo treatments. I've kind of written off the B for ABSSSI because Leo let it go dormant while the world shifted to antibiotic pills. But, if there is OM or IBD capital available, it would only take another treatment method to augment the facility based IV to add some value to B for ABSSSI. If none of this happens even $5 million will be out of reach. If it does, who knows. Maybe even Kevetrin, if there is money to test it out, but that is a future bet, for sure. It also calls for a wise CEO.
At the risk of being ingenuous, yes.
"Some common synonyms of ingenuous are artless, naive, natural, and unsophisticated."
Ok, which word would you use?
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
Just a comment about data analysis. Over 15 years ago I had reason to analyze a 120 area data set, with maybe 20 or less variables. I called a professional data guy ($350 or so each time he helped me, as I recall) and he first said to spend $400 or so on a stat package, as I recall, to get a data analysis package. For a grand or less I had access to consultation on the use of the pack and interpretation of the print outs. Did it all for you. You tossed in the data set and chose which stats you wanted it to do. Bang. Done. The point I am making is that data analysis is done by stat packages, quickly and relatively cheaply. Of course you need a pro to pick out the package, help with the choice of which tests to use and how to interpret results. But it is not rocket science and it is relatively cheap. All the fuss about secondary data analysis after a failed test is ingenuous, in my view. These are small sample sizes with not that many variables. The final prices should be thousands or tens of thousands. Not a crushing expenditure. After all, we are not dealing with patients, just numbers.
I hope you're right, but I'm thinking Leo will do a Prurisol data dive and never let us see, one way or another. Sorry for the bad attitude, but is what it is.
Some posters have suggested that the IPIX pps would be dead in the water well into next year. Maybe, but maybe not. Here are my picks for potential pps drivers. All based on my gut feelings, and nothing more:
NIH/federal/private institutional in vitro findings that Brilacidin is an effective ant-viral in areas of unmet need
pps rise to .31 or more
weak to moderate possibility
IPIX data analysis of the failed covid Ph2b shows at least moderate effectiveness in cases of moderate infection
pps rise to .41 or more with above, or .31pps w/o the above
weak to moderate possibility
Good success in UP testing by Alfasigma in a Ph2b, pps up to .60 including either or both of the above
weak to moderate possibility
Good success in testing Brilacidin for OM in a Ph3, pps up to $1.75 includes an Alfasigma successful Ph2b, but minimal chance a test will even be held by early next year
weak possibility
"BP is years ahead of IPIX in every respect, but it's a big pie. All the more reason for AlfaSigma to have the B to test when they need it. No excuses."
Truer words were never spoken. When I read them I am sickened, and not from IBD. I can't imagine what the hold up is or why.
Appreciate the detailed response. Lots to think and obsess about, ok, think about.
Minnie, if you are not a savvy investor, we are all in trouble--- But modesty bespeaks wisdom.
Wish I could make an informed comment, can I just so thanks, so much appreciate the knowledge?
Williamssc, I could not agree more.
"Skin conditions is huge market"
Sure is, but do you believe that B for ABSSSI seems to be a lead into that market? The competition moves forward and IPIX seems to be just stationary in this market.
Loanranger, what are you making of this? We know last May was tough times for covid in N. Italy, but we really don't know much more, do we? So they went into a 2a in May and then radio silence?
"we already saw a successful phase 2 B-UP trial. We sold it for:
$420K upfront
$6M in development milestones
$18M in tier sales milestones above $100M.
2-6% royalty (they did their own formulation which I believe drops the royalty from 6% to 2%)"
It was my understanding that we saw a 2A, the 2B and 3 are to come next year.
"So AS already owns about 97% of B-UP. They're going to run a larger phase 2 with their own formulation now. I hope we can run a POC oral IBD phase 2 for cheap to get a partnership.
They'll likely wait on those results and the results of our gut biome studies before investing further. I think your talking a couple years out for all of this to come together."
Guess we disagree on the timing. I feel a 2b and 3 enema IBD UC trials should not take more than 6-8 months apiece. Lots of folks out there with various bowel issues. And this type trial does not include the complexities of a cancer trial, for example, with death, OM and others issues. But my estimating could be off, and it could certainly drift out to two years because of a new covid threat or whatever, I just don't feel it will. And if successful, no reason for AS not to want to buy a good chunk of IPIX; after all Crohn's treatment is the bell of the ball, and there is a good chance AS will go after it, imo.
Quote:
"B for Covid is still a could be. A real potential, but still a Ph3 waiting to happen."
I wrote in a confusing manner, I agree with your thoughts and feel there will be no B for covid Ph3. It's a dead horse. Data analysis could produce something, but likely nothing.
"Again, we need that secondary data. Not sure how long it takes them to crunch the secondary endpoints but I was hoping for something last week. If we go more than another week or two then I would say Brilacidin is not going to phase 3 for COVID. If the company had even the vaguest flimsiest plans to advance B-COVID into phase 3 they would have mentioned it.
My hope is partnership on synergy with Remdesivir and development of the inhaler with Gilead. There is no way for us to run another IV trial without external funding."
These are hopes I've never really shared, but wouldn't discount them, when I've averaged down a bit; however, it is because of AS and B for OM, as my primary hopes. And I haven't bet the farm. And won't. I do appreciate your thoughtful and extensive analysis. GLTY and all the longs.
Not sure why you are blowing past Alfasigma, if we see a successful trial they could have first rights to buy/license IPIX properties. That's kind of a big deal. And it could happen in much less than two years. B for Covid is still a could be. A real potential, but still a Ph3 waiting to happen.
Two or more years ago, last response, then I got him po'd at me.
I'm not expecting it, but a boost from the federal labs such as in NIH, which we see reviewing B for anti-viral use, could occur. Maybe even before an OM trial or the Alfasigma trial starts, but who really knows (not the shadow and certainly not the longs). Goodnite.
For sure----
L vus, though not addressed to me let me say I benefit by your posts and am glad you are still here, though that somehow sounds like "misery loves company." GLTY
Thanks, for the cite, Williamssc, good info.
Looks like it's rights up IPIX's alley, no pun intended, sort of.
"then it will screw royally with the gut microbiome if administered orally and reaching the gut."
Probably will, but any anti-biotic will end up killing lots of gut bacterial too. Not good, but not necessarily evil either. I notice lots of docs are now giving pro-biotics to patients along with antibiotic treatments. Too bad B were not one of them, could have been if IPIX either had more capital or was willing to make a deal. Unfortunately B for ABSSSI (or the other conditions that could no doubt be addressed) is on the shelf while the BP world moves on. If I sound a bit bitter or at least quizzical about this, it's only because I am.