Buh bye
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I think their Magic 8 ball was sent back for repairs, hence the delay in knowing the results. Worst case, I believe they have a pseudo "Russian-roulette" randomization device to help with injecting patterns into the data points.
Make sense?
15 squared maybe
The more I think about the "potential" Advaxis has in their platform, the more I now believe that it's a multi-billion dollar platform. They ain't selling early unless somebody brings an offer near 10 billion. I'm now fully convinced that Advaxis knows EXACTLY what they have (and the potential) and where they are headed. It' going to take just under 2 years before a BP comes in and makes an offer, and it won't be for anything less that 10 billion to start. Likely, there will be a bidding war.
You heard it hear first.
The fly on the wall is very savvy...
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Crazy what Advaxis has and what's in the queue. How can this not command billions when all is said and done!
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Utter insanity and superfluous ridiculousness!
Seriously...
The positive thing about this is that it's a data point shorts are starting to get concerned...
Do or do not. There is no try.
EXACTLY! POR or "plan of record" being executed. This adds support to those under the opinion that Advaxis is not on sale, at least not in the near term.
My opinion still stands:
A. Either an early buy out is in process and will occur before EMA submission for the "right price" (start at 2.4B)
****[OR]****
B. Pursuing POR - next event should be an EU partner in prep for EMA submission
Plan b will bring significantly more valuation, so that's what I'm hoping for.
Really? Seriously? This is the A-team? Come on, can't do better than this?
I hope you are right!
Each day Advaxis "stays quiet" reinforces the theories around an early buyout, i.e. prior to EMA submission. It's going to go one way or the other. I'm hoping the next news is EU partnership announcement in prep for EMA submission. But, I'm also well aware that "Don" Lombardo may have been brought in to do his thing.
Time will tell, and very shortly I believe (i.e. in the next few months).
Start with $60; it's a 100% premium from the highest valuation. Anything below that is nonsense.
Really great post, summarizing the current landscape ! Out of curiosity, what do you speculate a "bottom" offer would be, that Advaxis would accept, in both pre-approval and post-approval scenarios?
James, if true, and he was kept out of the dark on this, it's speaks to the possibility that they are moving directional to sell the company, and to do it quickly.
Speculative question to the board based on potential
Premise: Suppose one could demonstrate, through data, (prior to any EU or FDA approval) that Advaxis possesses a disruptive platform providing never-before-seen CR numbers across "N" constructs, as well as the flexibility to extend to "N" constructs.
Question: Regardless of the current share price, what would the potential of owning such a platform, outright, be worth?
I will start the bidding: 8 BILLION
Simple, Steve. Next month is August. Workings behind the scenes in process. Likely-hood that something could transpire is higher with each passing day. August time frame is a reasonable prognosis.
SHAZAM! You "get it" Blue.
Changing like the wind. The price declines 3% and out come the posts on how Dan destroyed 40% of the company's value. Price increases 4+% and it looks like there maybe a change ahead.
I can't imagine what will happen when we have a 30% gainer! Wow. Just wow.
<sarcasm>
I believe every email that IR sends me fully discloses exactly what is going on behind the scenes at the company. I have full confidence that Noelle is sharing the most important current and future details to all email inquiries. What else would they do?
</sarcasm>
Similar inference from my recent IR response, although it was not from Noelle. Financial and operational strong position.
Bummer for them. Gonna get caught.
Plan of record
Continue w/ POR, likely boiler plate. Odd twist, it was not Noelle that responded. I'll leave it at that.
Well, IR responded, and I'm sticking with my original thoughts around moving forward to EMA submission, per POR - i.e. no early BO.
That's all I'm going to say.
Good night.
I will admit one thing concerning an early BO scenario, i.e. before EU submission slated for Q4. If we go without any communication from Advaxis through August and September, that would be the strongest indicator of an impending acquisition.
I emailed IR today expressing my concerns and asking for a window of time when shareholders can expect an update. So far, no response.
Price? < OR > than 2B?
Define "soon". Before or after Q4?
James, interesting data point to watch. If the "hiring"/"openings" move to a halt for senior-type roles, it might be an indication that the company is part of an impending acquisition.
Fair and accurate point.
Do you not think they recognize the pps is lagging? Do you not think they want the valuation to reflect the platform's true number? Why do you think Dan is gone? CEO's are held accountable. Yah, I can see it now,
"Hey Advaxis IR, this is Exel. I hold 32K shares in your company and wanted to let you know that I think the pps should be trading at $68.90, not $6.89. So, why isn't it and what are you going to do about it? Maybe you should sell the company for 3 billion. What do you think?"
IR's response,
"Thank you for your concern. We have the heart of our shareholders in mind and fully recognize that the current valuation is not preferable. After all, we're shareholders too! As we continue to evolve our platform, we will keep investors informed, and we fully believe and are committed to bringing the best value. We are excited to see the impacts of our solutions and look forward to changing lives across the world. Thank you for your input and understanding."
Meanwhile, in the back room,
"Mr. Badway, your total offer of 4.25 billion, although generous, does not meet our expectations. We believe our constructs enable a pathway to disrupting the industry. We also must inform you that Mr. Kenneth C. Frazier of Merck has expressed strong interest in our platform, so we must consider all possibilities. Let's continue this discussion at a later date..."
If Advaxis IR is taking advice/input from from folks here, we have much bigger problems. Who knows what the companies projections are? Just because Dan through out a 6 Billion number a few years back, is that the reality? Maybe, as we see more validation in the platform, they are no longer thinking in terms of single-digits. My point is that if there are qualified individuals, there's a "looking for CEO" sign on the Advaxis front yard - feel free to apply. Other than that, if people are not happy with the company, then they can take their investment and move on; everyone is empowered to do so. In the meantime, I'm ok with the projected milestones, coupled with some interesting scenarios around early BO, mid BO, or late BO. When I think of the potential world-wide impact addressing multiple constructs in a personalized way, I see nothing but great things.
In the end, the data (to date) tells me the platform "just works". The pps will take care of itself in due time.
William, spoken with Dan, Noelle and Hans since_Dan_left?
I see, I see. So now, after they disclosed information that surely tells the picture, you have the insight and conviction to assert realities this board can't possible have foreseen. And, I charge you - do not be so naive. When you spoke to them, they certainly had scripted responses, at best, and likely a bunch of very generic commentary. In short, they legally can't tell you anything that's worth salt.
My advice, whatever they told you, it's probably not remotely close to what is going on behind the scenes. Whether you want to believe, something is brewing at Advaxis - an EU partnership in prep for EMA submission? an early BO? something material we haven't seen coming?
The silence is very, very loud. We should be finding out something noteworthy before the start of Q4.
My $.02 and tea leaves.
You're still low and still wrong. But, as I have stated earlier, I have reversed my opinion on an early buyout based upon some information I read about Advaxis looking for a placement CEO to Lombardo, and moving forward with EMA submission in Q4, followed by AA for EU and FDA in 2018. Those events alone will push the market cap into the billions. The catalyst will be an EU partner sign-on before EMA submission.
However, if there is an early BO, it's likely to happen before Q4 and it won't be for anything less than 2.5B IMO (and that is a low-ball offer).
<rhetoric>
If somebody interprets and manufactures a composition of isolated, but related data points, only to result in an assertion that is greater than the sum of the parts, does that mean they have "extra" info?
</rhetoric>
Wrong on all counts. That's all I'm going to say at this point.
fbg, I hate to break it to you, but you have NO IDEA how wrong you are. None.
Yes, I know.
Although I've switch my view on a near-term sale, I will admit that if your scenario is correct, the company will get sold before November, 2017 year. I'm referring to your "a lot sooner than people think comment". Reason being is that Amgen, among others, would not like to pay for the many multiples premium post EMA submission and AA for EU and/or FDA.
I hope you're wrong Although I would love to see a crazy scenario where we get halted, acquisition is announced, and we re-open somewhere between $65 and $90 a share. That would be a moment for sure!
I do not. I can't speak for Blue.
Another train of thought to consider: potential valuation
So, let's make the assumption that the platform works for multiple constructs. Amgen, says, "yup, the data is compelling. It works. We want it." In this scenario, a buyout for several billion is still worth an ROI of multiples of that. This is why I believe 2.5-3B is the bottom of the barrel. I will not be surprised if a BO offer is considerably more, assuming that's what ends up happening.
Still waiting to see that fork in the road to validate the direction near-term, so looking for that EU partnership announcement within 2 months. After that, it's basically game over.