Buh bye
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That might light the fuse, if other material events were to follow shortly after, such as EU partner announcement, followed by EMA submission.
That would likely propel the stock easily into the 1.5-2B valuation range.
BTW, IR's "non-answer" inferred very, very clearly to me that something related to EMA and EU partnership is in process.
Hence, NO acquisition. They have other priorities right now - i.e. EMA and EU.
I will summarize:
Q: "Are you able to share such and such"
A: "We will not."
The question posed was binary and actually public domain (i.e. does EU require a partner for distribution), but I believe the misinterpretation came with intent to disclose the actual "EU partner" involved, which would be material.
Hence, the response, "We will not."
The tea leaves scream loud and clear - "NO ACQUISITION".
Anyway, believe what you want.
A joke, up 2.25%, at $6.36. Should be trading 4X-5X that right now.
Would be nice to break the 50 day MA of $6.47...
Ok, I will tell you "I told you so" next week, and at the end of September, and the end of October, and the end of November, and the end of December.
There will be NO acquisition of Advaxis in 2017. End of story.
You can take that to the bank.
There will not be news until September unless there is a buyout from left field between now and next Thursday. Since it' nearly conclusive that a buyout is not in the cards this year, it will continue to be silent.
I do expect news in September, as well as material news before this year is over, and the pps to respond accordingly and significantly upwards:)
Thank you for further validating the incongruity of DD's logic wrt to this topic.
If we're talking about should be's, the stock should be carrying a valuation between 1 and 2 billion right now. The math means anywhere from $25 to $50 pps, right now.
No matter, the inevitable will be upon us soon enough.
Just par for the course. No surprise from the assertion you're referring to.
All meaningless until material news ignites the fuse. Then, look out.
When you really start to think about the Advaxis platform, it's really the "Pandora's box of immunotherapy."
Scary good thought. ;)
If an entity is willing to pay 2B right now, then they can pay 3X-4X, given very near-term AA for EU and FDA. Frankly, 2B is giving it away very cheap.
Assuming Advaxis decides to ride this out a bit, gain AA for EU and FDA, along with already having established an EU partner (likely for EU), the pps won't settle for anything in single-digit B's in an acquisition scenario SIMPLY DUE to a bidding war between multiple players. The platform is worth 10's of billions if matured appropriately.
I'd say, worst case scenario (assuming EU and FDA approval), acquisition happens within a year post those approvals. So, 2018 maybe be when things settle via EU/FDA AA, and 2019 may very well be the acquisition year. Of course, acquisition could happen earlier if the entity is just good with EU approval.
Bottom-line, relative to "stock time", the clock is running out...
Irrational Exuberance - alluded to yesterday
However, if you think about the phrase, and apply it to the world of immunotherapy, in context of people-specific optimization of cancer care, across multiple constructs, then the phrase "irrational exuberance" sounds like a conservative evaluation.
If Advaxis has the goods, the ensuing pps climb will make the term "irrational exuberance" irrational when applied to Advaxis valuation at that time.
$20 pps BO my ass.
That would make it a Tsunami!
If there is any significant licensing deals, there will be 2 waves of affect:
Wave 1: Initial bump to specific deal
Wave 2: Extended, deep runup after the market consumes the realization that Advaxis is a diverse multi-construct delivery platform
Wave 2 will be unbelievable.
Not tomorrow, but...
Each day is a day closer to reversal. Q4 start is just weeks away
Regardless, the change in trend is imminent - i.e. within a quarter from now, or maybe just weeks.
And when it turns, it won't ever look back.
Too much in the queue.
And that will change dramatically in either direction, depending on whether or not material events transpire successfully or not.
We're not stuck in time. The clock is moving.
Just more validation that they ain't sellin' baby!
Great analogy
I understand what you're saying. I'm just relaying that the response was not boiler plate nor what I expected. Obviously, my interpretation is supposition and I can't be 100% certain.
But, like i said, I would not bet a single penny that Advaxis gets acquired this year. I'm as confident in that as I can possibly be. And if I'm wrong,and they get acquired, I will thoroughly enjoy Christmas this year and well beyond.
I'll leave it at that.
The IR response I received was very short and very specific. I believe my question was misinterpreted and the non-response inferred something else.
To be clear, my question was around EMA and EU partner requirements. The response inferred that process is active. I further inferred this is the current priority. Obviously, I can't know 100%, thus my wording, " near absolute certainty"
Put it this way, I would not bet even a single penny that Advaxis gets acquired in 2017.
Please, do yourself a favor, and call Noelle. There is no buy-out coming in 2017 - guaranteed.
What reality are you referring to?
BIO Rally Monday - ADXS should see north of $6.50 just along for the ride.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170818005605/en/BIO-Applauds-Signing-Food-Drug-Administration-Reauthorization
You maybe correct with the time frame given the Sept. conference. I suspect we will hear something about a EU partner as well, prior to EMA submission.
The other alternative "left field news" is an acquisition, but I see that as EXTREMELY now.
I inferred by the "non response" to my question, that they are UNWILLING to share information at this time. This implies that the "information build" is in process. And, yes, it is specifically related to their POR.
You are correct and this reaffirms my current understanding based upon an IR response to a question I posed.
Sometimes what is not said speaks volumes
I will say that based upon a "veiled" IR response, I am %99.9 certain of partnership with EMA submission. It's not what was said, but what was not said. The alternative is that the company up for acquisition.
I will leave it at that.
Bots are not that smart!
Imagine you ask a specific question and the response to the question "specifically" does not provide an answer to the question.
You will actually have your answer.
Well folks, I can tell you with 99.9% certainty that the writing is on the wall. And, if you are short, I would very strongly suggest that you cover your position "shortly".
"shortly" - a time frame measure in weeks or, at most, a few months
Well, I'm good. Very, very, very good.
Have my answer.
I have another specific email into IR regarding near-term goals. If they do not respond, I maybe able to infer something interesting at the very minimum. I say this because they have been consistently responding to my queries.
I understand what you're asserting. One approach (go w/o partner) carries significantly more risk that going into EMA submission w/ a partner. Maybe there is a hybrid approach as well, where they can move forward with a distribution plan that includes establishing a partner within a given time frame.
Anyways.....
Lots of excitement building these next few months and into 2018. And of course, there is the randomness of "left field news of a BO". With Advaxis, there always seems to be "left field" PRs, so we shouldn't be surprised what transpires.
I disagree.
HELLO OBI!
Top of the morning to ya!
Fbg, to mock or not to mock?
That is the question.
It's definitely a mute point if Hovacre is correct. However, if they can move through with a distribution without actually requiring a secured partner as part of the plan and still receive EMA approval, why not do it?
"I see the very real possibility that the company applies for the EU before getting a partner"
If within EMA rules, I agree that this is highly probable.
Anybody feel like digging in?
http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/regulation/general/general_content_000199.jsp
http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/Regulatory_and_procedural_guideline/2014/05/WC500166909.pdf
Unlikely, since O'Connor still has retroactive inversion power.