Buh bye
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Will be interesting to watch. We should see an EU partnership announcement before October, worst case, if this is the road that unfolds. The great thing is that if we're heading to EU partner and EU submission by Q4, the pps should be trading in the mid-high teens and continue to trend up as well.
We'll know within months; getting an EU partnership would way heavily to the model that an early BO (i.e. before EU submission) ain't happening. That's what I hope happens because the valuation is many factors higher if we can get to an EU approval.
Unfortunately, this scenario will not happen because I believe that Advaxis will be acquired before any EU submission. I hope I am dead wrong, that Advaxis gets an EU partnership (which should drive the price up significantly), completes EU submission (more pps appreciation), and lands early EU approval (very significant pps appreciation).
Although, no matter what scenario, I don't see Advaxis avoiding acquisition before late 2018, early 2019. Certainly, if they have EU approval, the price will be significantly higher than an early BO, prior to EU submission.
I believe DOC's exit is a data point that indicates something is stirring around a BO.
Again, I hope I am dead wrong in all counts, and Blue is right, and Advaxis becomes a major licensing player of immunotherapy. Blue's scenario would place them in the 10's of billions in MC, albeit several years away from now (best case 3 years, more likely 5 for that kind of valuation).
Note: I am fully confident because the platform works (at least from the data we have today). Tutes just don't know it yet.
It won't be 6 and change after EU submission. And then, it won't be in the teens after EU approval - probably somewhere in the $60-$70 range. So from there, it's a 300% premium
This is not an "early BO" scenario. This is after EU submission and approval, assuming that all happens.
Sooooooooooooooo,
What will the pps be after the EU submission PR? $10, $15, $20?
What about after EU approval? $50, $65, $80?
So from there, getting to $200 is not unreasonable given the multiple constructs and potential. In fact $200 would be the bare minimum.
Early BO, i.e. before EU submission. Post EU submission and approval, I would not settle for anything under 8 billion, and that price would still be robbery.
Basically, if Advaxis is not BO early, gets through to EU approval, it will likely become a 10+ billion dollar company from a valuation perspective.
Brilliant! I am right there with you
This will all be irrelevant sooner than we realize
You're completely missing the big picture. Start with this: the high was near $30 not too long ago. From around that price range, give or take a few points, add in the multiplication factor.
In terms of speculation, and depending on timing, this thing could be sold anywhere from $50-$250 pps. $50'ish range and somewhat higher would happen early, before EU submission. The $250 range or around that would happen after EU approval.
So, given what's in the queue, I expect an early BO, sometime this fall.
Great! You've given more confirmation that the unlikely will occur, since Advaxis is atypical.
What you're misunderstanding is that ticker will not be trading in single-digits when a BO is announced. "They" will move it up between now and a BO announcement. From there, it could be anywhere from 2X to 10X the price. No way of knowing that.
My guess:
Gets to the high teens, low 20s range and a BO is announced for 3X-5X. My gut says, a MC of 2.5B-3B is probably fair, although still on the low side. However, my mind says, it could be much,much higher.
BO of BIO == "highly unpredictable"
Your 1B MC BO value is completely unrealistic and assumes the price will stay in the $6 range. Not happening.
"Big Money didn't want it that way! They are invested to make the quickest ROI as possible!"
Ding. Ding. Ding. "Jim, what has Easy won behind curtain number 2?"
A NEW BUYOUT!
Folks, the domino has been pushed, and it's all but done. About as clear as can be at this point. Sale before EU submission is my bet. More than 2.5B and less than 3B.
It will be bitter-sweet if that day arrives.
Not remotely. Not even close.
investor day was a train wreck
$14-$16 is like saying it will sell for $1000/share.
Nonsensical.
$29.42 is the bare bones bottom, IMO. Anything from there to ~$45/share would be like stealing.
Jun 02, 2015 28.18 29.42 26.80 27.18
If it's an early sale (before EU submission), it'll fetch 2.5B-2.75B, or ~$60-$70 per share.
James, don't you think that Dan's sudden departure basically guarantees that we'll be seeing an early merger/acquisition, i.e. before EU submission?
I will be very, very surprised if Advaxis does not get taken out within 4 months or so.
When the CEO is "removed", it's not like they're going to share it with anyone prior to the announcement. Can't afford a leak that big.
Speculate then. What's the other shoe to drop?
They have plenty of cash to run operations into 2019.
EU submission on track for Q4
Trials showing great results
Multiple constructs in the queue
Look, Lombardi came in about 6 months ago? Former CEO. With big experience in merger/acquisitions?
"Dan, we have a potential buyer and it's getting serious, but you're not our guy to get us over the finish line..."
I think it's going to be BMS.
Please. Have you ever worked at a very large company and a very senior employee has moved on (i.e. VP and above)? The email that comes out is typically boiler plate - "leaving for new opportunities or personal reasons or whatever, and we wish him/her well in their next challenge."
And this goes to employees internally, so you think IR is going to tell you anymore detail other than Dan left on his own (technically he did resign on his own) and the company continues to move forward.
Boilerplate.
Writing is on the wall; I'd say it must before EU submission if they're ok with a sale under 3B
We'll never see EU approval as the ticker ADXS
Agreed - my guess ~2.5-2.75 billion
fbg, first you can stop talking about DOC now - he is gone. Next, do not be naive. This has been planned for quite sometime IMO. In fact, I would not be surprised if the big players, like Fidelity, have a window on when they want Advaxis sold; i.e. get their ROI and move on. From their perspective, they are looking at odds. Meaning, what are the odds of a biotech that was a penny stock, having done a 1:125'ish (reverse) split turn into a 20 billion dollar monster? Very low. However, if they could land a price of a few billion, that would be a very nice ROI.
Dan wanted the former, he wanted to play the very long game. He probably was thinking beyond 5 years from now. I suspect the big investors gave Dan that amount of time (when he first started) to get the company to a place where it was ready for sale.
So here we are. On the verge of EU submission. And I suspect a real sweet spot for a larger BP to take on a little more risk and push for an acquisition at billions less potentially.
Yah, I think a BO is on the horizon, and it's only months away.
More or less, I this is spot on. Here are some of things I've been reflecting on today.
1. Dan buying shares, steadily and probably knowing that his "philosophy" of going at it alone was in conflict with the intent of build holders - i.e. get the company sold as quickly as possible for the best price.
2. Recall Dan's thoughts a few years back of ADXS being worth $50/share "in a couple of years". Was that said to be inline with "move to get the company BO?". Did they give him 4 years to show they were close to a BO?
3. The timing - it's just very, very odd. Q4 is EU submission with virtually guaranteed approval, inasmuch is possible for BioTech.
I'm moving more and more to the following conclusions:
1. The tutes want their ROI and the company sold
2. I suspect the right buyer can make it happen before Q4 start or possibly no later than October - I think it depends on getting the goods before EU submission. If it's post EU submission the price goes up dramatically.
3. BMS as a buyer (they are my pick) may want the CEO gone before an acquisition/merger.
4. If my theory is correct, we'll likely see a gradual move back to the low teens well before "the event".
So, I'm now mostly expecting a BO to take place sometime between September and early November. I don't think it will be for more than 3 billion either, and probably around 2.5 billion - I have must hunches on this that I can share later if this transpires.
So, now we wait. The beauty in this situation is that if the "tutes running the show" can wait until after EU approval, the pps will command north of $100 or over 5B market cap. Maybe they are done waiting though. Seems the first domino has fallen.
Good luck. Let the games begin (although I guess they already have).
LOL! This does have a very odd feel to it though. Don't be surprised if a BO hits ADXS before Q4. This whole thing is just very odd, given the EU submission in Q4 time-frame.
Very, very odd indeed.
Well, here is the start of left field news. So, DOC is buying as much as he can every month, and now resigns. If not forced out, then Blue, you could very well be correct. The next left field news might be a BO.
Time will tell.
Blue, I love your "licensing model" thinking and sincerely hope you are spot on and it transpires. However, I believe it's going to be very difficult for the BOD, etc. to turn away any offer in the 2-3 billion dollar range if it comes before EU submission (assuming some BP takes that extra risk on). The only thing that throws a wrench into the price for me personally is multiple apps for cancer in the queue (20 or so?). That may very well become a huge factor in how the pps is impacted through the course of a potential BO.
Another thing to watch is that "first company" partnering with Advaxis for Europe; will that set their wheels in motion for an eventual BO offer? Of course, to your other point, whose to say if this won't eventual ignite a bidding war? A lot of scenarios brewing for sure.
No matter, come September and the start of Q4, things will start to get very, very exciting I believe. 2018 maybe the last year we see Advaxis as the entity we know today. Hoping for your model though because that would be worth 10's of billions within 5-7 years.
Yah, you're probably right.
Thoughts of an EU partner's impact on the pps? I suppose if a partnership came with a very large cash component, the pps would likely rise past our old most recent high of $16'ish, and then just stabilize and climb from there. Otherwise, we maybe see at 20%-30% bump from and 8'ish level, and then a consistent climb to mid-upper teams before EU submission?
Yes, I don't think anything formal, but more of a pulse check. I do think we see something formal after EU approval.
I'm definitely not considering the possibilities of other events between now and Q4 time-frame, but I would not be surprised at all if we see something that moves the pps north. This is the kind of stock where we wake up to a multi-hundred % increase overnight, and there is no way to predict that kind of event. Certainly, the possibility exists for that kind of scenario to happen.
My outlier event is a buyout before EU submission for around 2-3 billion. Although it's very remote, I could see it happening if the suitor gets information that is so compelling that it's worth the early risk now verses having to pay much, much more later, post an EU approval.
The more likely scenario is that post EU approval there is going to be some compelling offers. I expect DOC and LT have thought through the scenarios of a BO or they already have a number in mind and will ignore offers until they get their "number". I suspect they'll already have had low-ball offers for a billion or less already; plus the major holders (Fidelity, etc.) probably won't sell for anything under $30.
So, my hope is that DOC and co. sees this out a little longer, beyond 2019, and get a BO of no less than 10B; I'd rather wait a couple of more years for 10B than sell early for 2-3 B. But my gut tells me it may happen sooner, and for much less than 10B. Given the chatter building around merger and acquisitions momentum likely building in H2 of 2017 in the BIOtech sector, we shouldn't be surprised by anything. Who knows, maybe irrational exuberance will take over, and will get a crazy offer.
Happy 4th!
Yes, it's a bummer we aren't seeing much right now. Unfortunately, that will be commonplace until material events transpire. The great thing is that Q4 is very, very close.
Hang in there. If we're still at 6 and change by December, either no material news has transpired or something has failed. Neither seem remotely probably at this point. So count yourself very fortunate if you've purchase at these levels or lower.
fbg, why don't you believe yourself? I mean, if I had the same convictions about my investment as you do, I'd be gone.
Impossible. I haven't been as shareholder that long.
We are on a message board. I'm giving my opinion based on interpretation of current data, timelines, and upcoming events. If the platform works, as many of us believe, we are nearing the end of this silliness in trading.
?????? Amgen news??
Partnership and/or EU submission will not result in red. EU approval goes without saying...
Going from 300 million to 3 billion MC
Many folks have said, "nobody is going to pay 3 billion for a company whose market cap is 300 million", and that would be correct - from a price of $6 and change. But that won't be the price before the MC moves to 3 billion or more; not even close. A possible scenario I believe unfolds will be as follows:
July, August, (possibly September) (i.e. Q3)
-more of the same trading pattern
-range is probably very high 5's to 8's
September
-partner announcement in prep for EU submission
-up to this PR, the pps should appreciate and close at/around $10 or so
-PR announcement moves the stock 20%-30%
-probably settle in the $12 range
Q4 (Oct-Dec)
-more "day-short-play" trading
-shorts may drop it to near $10 or just below and bump it to $16
-EU submission announcement - pps closes above $16, below $20
2018 - it gets even more interesting...
- maybe some more appreciation - close to $25, rumors of BO?
- a possible early BO post EU submission - pay 3X, would be around 3B
OR
EU approval and that would drive the pps up from the 20s to the 70s overnight
So, there you have it - 300 million to 3 billion in less than 1.5 years.
So doubters on this board, do you feel lucky? Sell then, and buy back in a year or two.
Have fun with that.
p.s tx_farmer - this post was meant to be a new post and not a reply to you. Apologies.
By another year, I'm thinking we shouldn't be surprised to see an early BO. I suspect that post EU approval, a buyout will quickly follow. The other, left-field scenario, is an early "cheap" BO just prior to EU submission, which is much less likely.
I hope that DOC does not settle for anything below 8B, but I my gut says the price will be around 4 or 5B, sometime in 2018 (or early 2019 if EU approval is late 2018 Q4).
Bottom-line, I don't think this company has 2 years of runaway as the entity "Advaxis". The platform is simply too compelling not to be gobbled up.
The games people play; one year from now?
Shorts, "bye felicia"
ADXS mgmt - planned people. All planned. You don't get dumped and then have the "fortune" to recover by picking another BP, that's a better fit? That would be a huge coincidence if true.