Buh bye
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Curious about how people feel towards a BO For arguments sake, let's say Advaxis is on the selling block. I think, except for a few, most would be very disappointed with anything under 2B.
How would you feel for a sale of 3B or $75/share?
Just received this in my inbox:
Advaxis is proud to share two recently published peer reviewed papers on our lead product candidate, axalimogene filolisbac (AXAL) for cervical, anal and head and neck cancers.
Published this week in Gynecologic Oncology Research and Practice, Therapeutic options for treatment of human papillomavirus-associated cancers - novel immunologic vaccines: ADXS11–001 details the challenges of HPV-related cancers, clinical experience to date and ongoing clinical trials with axalimogene filolisbac.
LINK: https://gynoncrp.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40661-017-0047-8
Is Advaxis typical? Do you feel lucky? Well, do you?
Well if folks don't know the "context", then it is what it is. The good thing is that when they learn the story in it's complete "context", the doors will be blown off.
I don't think we'll have to wait too much longer, relatively speaking.
Early indicator that shorts have tipped their hand...
Post DOC's resignation:
Date High Low Close
Fri Jul 21 7.26 6.91 [7 < close < 7.10]
Thurs Jul 20 7.42 7.10 7.13
Fri Jul 14 7.37 6.93 7.01
Thurs Jul 13 6.94 6.36 6.88
Fri, July 7th 6.68 6.27 6.41
Thurs, July 6th 6.99 6.66 6.70
Based upon the trend above, this is what I am looking for a high next week of $7.82 and a high the week after of $7.87 to confirm. Regardless, I fully expect Advaxis will continue to trend up into the teens between now and October, also the time frame when the EU partnership is likely to be announced. If no EU partnership is finalized, it will muffle the EU submission targeted for Q4, and possibly delay it.
I now believe that an M&A is not in the cards near-term because of the second sentence from this article (http://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/o-connor-resigns-as-ceo-advaxis-immediate-effect). We have seen a trend reversal since DOC's departure and I suspect shorts are starting cover slowly in anticipation of the next material event, which is likely an EU partnership prior to EU submission. Assuming the article is correct, and that ADXS is looking for a new CEO, it makes less sense that they are in process of a M&A or at least looking to that near-term.
Advaxis is going after EU submission and AA for both EU and FDA. They land all of that and the MC will be nothing short of 3B. We could see all of this happening before Q4 of 2018.
800 million? That's a joke. Try 10X that. But we won't get near that if there is an early M&A (i.e. before October).
If Advaxis can get to Q4 w/o being acquired, it will be a strong indication that they're moving forward with EU submission (especially if we get a PR on a EU partner). If that train gets going, look for EU and FDA AA. And you can forget about any valuation under 5B at that point. Don't be fooled - this will happen much, much faster than you can imagine when that first domino falls.
I would really hate to be short right now. It's going to get ugly very quickly, and a lot sooner than folks around here realize.
I do not believe we'll have to wait much longer. Something is going to pop before Q4.
Either we get news on EU partnership, etc. OR
M&A
Partnership or M&A. What ye say?
Poor shorts - they have no way out.
Either that or EU partnership. Too quiet post DOC's dismissal, and adding the boiler-plate response from IR, may indicate something material developing behind the scenes.
Man, I would really hate to be short right now.
True that.
We'll likely never know unless there is a M&A soon - that would be the validation. Other than that, it could have been inappropriate behavior (highly unlikely) OR disagreement on direction OR simply accountability for performance related to the pps. Maybe a combination of all of the above.
From what we know (here say), he seemed surprised by his removal, so it's probably simply a change in direction where he may not align. This is why I believe we're heading to a M&A for somewhere above 2.5B.
James Salmon, do you think a M&A is off base at this point?
EXACTLY
If the platform works as advertised and as the results have been showing, it's worth billions at this stage, no doubt about it.
fbg, the problem with your prognosis of a BO offer is that you are basing it upon the price increase verses the potential valuation. If Advaxis LT is looking to sell right now, they are not going to be say, "well, the price is at $7, so we'll take $15". Doesn't work that way, solly. Remember the pps was near $30 not too long ago. There are too many irons in the fire and too much compelling data for this not to be sold in the billions.
Here's another angle. Maybe a M&A is in the queue that had a very compelling initial offer (i.e. billions), but they are still "discussing". With all due respect, the company would laugh at an offer of a billion or less. And, in fact, I'm probably low at 2.5 billion. The alternative is that we're all wrong and they are moving forward with EU submission and approval as originally planned.
One thing for certain, I would not want to be short right now.
An early BO scenario is not going to be for a billion or less. No way. Start at 2.5 billion and move up from there if there is a bidding war.
Going to be fun to watch if that's where this is headed...
Possible. Probable? Too early too tell.
Boiler plate
The one other possibility is that the EU submission is delayed, probably tied to Advaxis not landing an EU partner. I believe this scenarios is very remote.
My head says there will likely be an early BO, but my hope is that we see this thing through to FDA AA and a corresponding valuation in the high single digit billions (i.e. north of 6B).
___ [THE MONUMENTAL FORK IN THE ROAD] ___
It's plain as day and Advaxis is quickly approaching it. Will it be an early M&A or on wards and upwards with EU partnership, submission, AA, following by FDA AA? The beauty in all of this is that the cards are plainly in front of us with EU submission slated for Q4. No matter how folks want to spin it, this thing is heading north, and it ain't gonna settle for a measly Billion MC either. Worst case, we get 2.5B-3B MC, and a bitter-sweet end to the ride. Best case, well, well beyond that.
So, sit back and R-E-L-A-X.
The start of Q4 is only 11 weeks away and if we're heading to EU submission, we'll probably hear of an EU partner before the start of Q4.
Going to be a very, very exciting close to 2017 for sure.
I've always believed these kinds of valuations, even before DOC resigned. The thing that has changed is the potential of an early BO. I don't know enough about the scenario of DOC's resignation as it possibly relates to an early BO in the queue; I have a hunch it may. I hope I am wrong and Advaxis is going for EU and FDA approvals before considering any offers for the company.
Regardless, I believe the pps will continue to trend up into Q4. If we get an EU partnership between now and Q4'ish, then the cards are on the table, and shorts will be forced to cover aggressively. They maybe be already starting.
If you're waiting for FDA approval to see appreciation and/or entry, given that it will most definitely happen post an EU approval, you'll be missing out on a ~20-bagger (from current pps) at the minimum. In short, EU approval and FDA approval will put the valuation north of 5B.
Potential Series of events: in the next 6 months:
Route A:
1. M&A before Q4/EU submission - 2.5B to 3B
Route B:
1. EU partership announced - Sept/Early Q4
2. EU submission
3. AA EU approval - valuation: 3 to 5 billion
4. AA FDA approval - valuation: well north of 5 billion
(If it gets to this point, Advaxis will not be for sale for anything under 8B, probably 10B to 12B)
Route C:
Same as route B, but never sell - valuation 2-3 years post FDA approval (north of 15B)
*There is the possibility that an M&A could occur anywhere along route B after any of the approvals.
Bottom-line - I see Advaxis valuation in the billions within 3-6 months. Over the next 3 months, I expect the pps to trend upwards into the teens and may touch $20.
My hunch: BP will jump all over this early (Route A). If there is a bidding war, my 2.5B to 3B is very low.
CAVEAT: I'm assuming that the platform works for N constructs.
Exactly why I expect an early M&A. If it is shown early and convincingly that Advaxis truly has the immunotherapy platform that covers n constructs, the price for a BO may very well be beyond what any have envisioned here.
Surely, the next 6 months are going to be very exciting and, we should see a significant appreciation in the valuation, given what's in the queue.
Not another Amazon, but I'd take a 1/10 of an Amazon in a heartbeat. With Amazon's 480B MC, a tenth is about 50B, putting the ADXS ticker at around $1250 share. If that's the future, I can wait many more years - no doubt. It's nice to dream, but I don't think BP is going to allow that pie to bake - one of them is going to want it all.
More clarity before us by fall; and definitely earlier if Advaxis is going for an EU partner instead of an M/A.
Something has changed this last week. At first I suspected it was just the typical for Advaxis, but now I'm starting to think that it was the beginnings of something very, very big near term. I'm looking for more validation next week, which translates into a continued trend up. Touching $8 would be further validation.
I feel a pulse like something is on the brink. EU partnership, merger, acquisition, something else?
Rumblings have started...
"The Song Remains the Same"
Pointless
Traders could give a rip about a given company's products and potential. They are simply looking that the now, to make money. Nothing wrong with it, nothing at all. The problem is that they would never know they are playing with a ticking nuclear war-head that could be set-off at any moment. It's that "moment", albeit rare, that may very well blow-up their entire world.
So, ask yourself why flavors of posts are occurring now. It's telling us all a story.
Pay attention.
And the very thing that will be their undoing and demise.
Watch.
Fair enough. It will also be their undoing.
It's a BIO - technicals are near-useless. We're on a rollercoaster, except we do not know what the track looks like in front of us. All that we know is that it's going to be a crazy, crazy ride.
My truck is full. You must realize that the major "tell" will be right in front of your eyes before Q4 starts.
Please. All irrelevant. In due time the sub-teens will be a thing of the past. It's coming a lot sooner than you realize.
Don't short now.
Nope. Fidelity and co. will have much more influence. Of course, there's also the poison pill. This thing was near $30 not too long ago. No way they let it go for just over 1 billion. No way.
Yah, I think it's likely. I'm hoping they can get between 2.5 and 3 billion. Anything less would be robbery.
A lot of things can happen between now and October, for sure.
Yes, fair point. So I would think that post EU approval, the pps should be over 100, but if not, definitely in the 3B+ MC range, or $75+. Now, from there if granted AA from the FDA, the pps would definitely hit triple digits territory.
From this price range, it probably would be muted. However, if we could start from the teens or low 20's, yah I could see that happening for sure, with the right data.
If Advaxis can get past EU submission, gain EU approval, then $100+ is very realistic. That's only a 4 billion MC for a company who owns the platform that be applied across multiple constructs, resulting in a CR or near CR.
4 billion (~1B MC per $25 pps) is chump change if Advaxis' solution delivers that kind of value and scale.
Agreed. My heart hopes for beyond EU approval and much more valuation, but my gut says we'll see an early BO for around 2.5B to 3B in Q4.
2 billion MC pre EU submission: 20% low
2.5 billion MC would be the bottom of the barrel, and I would rather see something closer to 3 billion. And we're talking an early BO (i.e. fall, 2017). If you tack on an EU partner, EU submission and approval, and I would not settle for anything less than 8 billion or $200/share. Basically, with approval, the platform has been rubber-stamped for multiple constructs and that would be worth 10's of billions to a BP. And if were fortunate enough to see FDA approval, post EU approval? Wow, it's going to be worth a lot of money.
Basically, we believe the platform works, so no matter how you slice it, it's going to be sold "cheap" relative to the 10's of billions potential.