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Type in "BI BIOTG". Then click on "Drug Explorer" towards the bottom left. Then type in "Seroquel" near the top where indicated. At that point it pulls up total Seroquel sales by month. Choose weekly data from the drop down box and click on data versus chart. On the middle drop down box, select "manufacturer", then select Mallinkrodt. Then you can use the left drop down box for total Trx and Total dollars among other choices. You can hunt around the various options available to see what data is there that might be of interest.
You need a Bloomberg terminal which costs over $1,500 per month
Next week sales will not give you the full September sales. It seems to take them a couple of weeks or so to publish the previous month's sales.
Here s the latest - sorry it took so long
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Count By Week
MALLINCKRODT P...
Data Chart
Payment Type 09/22/2017 09/15/2017 09/08/2017 09/01/2017 08/25/2017 08/18/201
Total 658.00 615.00 585.00 504.00 443.00 384.0
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Dollars By Drug Name By Week
MALLINCKRODT P...
Drug Name 09/22/2017Dn 09/15/2017 09/08/2017 09/01/2017 08/25/2017 08/18/2017 08
QUETIAPINE FUMARA 453.48k 400.63k 415.11k 347.41k 296.82k 248.28k
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Well, we don't know the terms of the MNK deal so we really can't say for sure what % of Seroquel sales will fall into IPCI's income statement. It is further confused by how the $11 million will be allocated that IPCI will get in the early portion of this deal. On a long run basis, however, if Seroquel sales were $50 million, I suspect IPCI would get about $10 million of that. But I am just guessing at a 20% royalty rate.
You are forgetting that MNK gets to keep most of the Seroquel sales and IPCI sees only a portion.
Mackie cut their estimates of generic revenues dramatically and suggested the company would license the generics to raise cash. His new income statement is weird, though as he has almost revenues of only $7+ million in 2018. I am not sure if he has been watching the sales increases on Seroquel lately. Maybe he is assuming they sell that off. He sees a 2019 commercial launch for Rexista and $95 million in sales from it in 2019 based on a 20% royalty rate. He also thinks they could conservatively get a $15 million upfront payment from a Rexista partner in 2018.
Mackie raises to a Speculative Buy and raise price target from $1 to $3.10.
I think they want to lead the offering. But he is also right.
Maxim is out with a report that says little other than regurgitate the company's press release. But the analyst is calling for $20 million in 2018 Seroquel sales, $10 million in other product sales (presumably newly approved generics) and $4.3 million in Focalin sales for a total of $34.3 million in 2018 sales and $0.42 in EPS. I think these are aggressive numbers but there are not impossible to reach if all went well.
OK - so Rexista is not dead and the stock therefore has something other than generics to look forward to over the next 18 months or so. That is definitely good, since if the FDA just deep-sixed Rexista today, we would only have the generics for a very long time and the stock's price-earnings ratio would never be high based on just those earnings.
What we don't know, however, remains significant:
1.) Exactly how many studies need to be done and how long will they take?
2.) What will those studies cost?
3.) How quickly will the FDA respond once the studies are completed?
4.) Where is the money for the studies coming from?
5.) Will IPCI raise just enough money to get by or will they raise much more than the minimum? Odidi now knows that his scraping for cash to get by approach of the past cost him valuable time with Rexista, Regbatin and PODRAS. He could well allow the new CFO to go out and raise a lot of money in order to avoid the mistakes of the past, even if it hurts his own position in the stock, not to mention ours.
So, it will be nice to see how the new and improved communications under the new CFO work out in the next couple of weeks and how clear an answer we get to the above questions.
As we thought - there is a future for Rexista:
http://www.intellipharmaceutics.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1041478
I believe you have it about right. This is the most likely outcome. IF it is not a CRL, then it is a positive for the company and the stock as the company then has a significant product on the horizon. If Rexista is dead in the water, however, it is going to be a long time before PODRAS or Regbatin are on the radar screen and we will only have generics between now and then. That is not very exciting. So, I am hoping the FDA gives Rexista a pathway to approval and I think that is the most likely outcome. Rexista remains the best alternative in the space and the FDA knows that.
Not if the stock is not trading. aftermarket trading has been halted for over 24 hours. I am not sure what the rules are since it is a weekend but I suspect they have more time to release the info. But we will know before trading starts on Monday, if not sooner. The only way that might not be true is if there is some other related development. For example, if the company got an approval and Purdue indicated they would partner if that happened, then trading might be halted for a longer period of time. But the chances of that being true are close to zero. So, I think we will know before the open on Monday.
No, they almost certainly have been told what the FDA'S decision is on Rexista. We will know what it is before the market opens.
Imminent threat????? Either you are not very experienced in this area or you are trying to scare folks. It is not even out of the clinic yet. Under the best of circumstances, it is 4-5 years from the market and that assumes everything goes right, and it almost never does. The article I read said they hope it starts its first phase I trial in late 2018. Hardly imminent!
I mentioned earlier it is normal for the FDA to send out their approval decisions on Fridays. I imagine the company has to get a PR together and get the lawyers to approve everything they say in it. Maybe we will see a PR tomorrow but certainly before trading starts on Monday.
I just started following today. Maybe we can wake it up.
IPCI will put out the PR after being informed by the FDA. Don't count on the impact being reduced if it comes out after the markets are closed. Those computers can remember until the market opens again.
I have mentioned the data can be bit sketchy in the past and it is a bit sketchy today. The number of prescriptions went up (first chart below) but the revenue fell for the week (second chart below). It could be they reduced the price significantly or it could be just some screwy data from Bloomberg. We will get a better feel for that in the weeks ahead. Also, I am pretty sure the hurricane messed up sales for that week. So, I would not freak out about it too much. That impact could last a couple more weeks as well.
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Count By Week
MALLINCKRODT P...
Payment Type 09/15/2017 09/08/2017 09/01/2017 08/25/2017 08/18/2017 08/11/201
Total 615.00 585.00 504.00 443.00 384.00 332.0
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Dollars By Week
MALLINCKRODT P...
Payment Type 09/15/2017 09/08/2017 09/01/2017 08/25/2017 08/18/2017 08/11/201
Total 400.63k 415.11k 347.41k 296.82k 248.28k 214.70
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
I am still of the conviction that Rexista is the biggest threat to Purdue and one way Purdue could try to improve its very sullied image would be to embrace a drug like Rexista. I just think it is in their best long term interest to work out a partnership deal with IPCI. And, right now, IPCI might be more compliant on the terms than in the past. Perhaps this is what Samsa is working on. A deal between to the two companies makes too much sense and both companies have good reason to speed the whole legal process up. IPCI needs the cash and Purdue needs to do all that they can to improve their image. Having a superior drug that leads to fewer deaths has to be a big winner for them.
I think a more accurate list would go like this:
1.) Guidance from the FDA about the path forward for Rexista
2.) Q3 sales and earnings shortfall vs analyst estimates
3.) Approval of 2 more ANDA's in the next 60 days
4.) Some form of financing/partnership raising $10-$15 million to get the company out of the ATM mess and provide long-needed financial stability
5.) Shareholder lawsuits dismissed for lack of evidence
6.) Q4 sales and EPS exceed analyst estimates and Company goes cash flow positive
7.) Results of cat 3 tests submitted to FDA
8.) Tentative approval of Rexista
9.) Partnership with Purdue announced
10.) Stock price advances to $6 per share by end of 2018
On the positive side, if the meeting goes well, they may well have PE data released by 11/1 and that could help the effort to list on NASDAQ, all of which would create positive momentum and get the company positioned for a proper fundraising. That would be dilutive to current shareholders but with good data in their pocket, a NASDAQ listing, a lot of capital in their pocket post a sizable equity issue and a growing anticipation of Mono data, there would definitely be a more favorable vibe around here. Tony is lining things up nicely for success. Now let's just hope the FDA does not scuttle everything on 10/12.
I have said the optimal time to buy would be after the last big fundraising and that is still likely the case. But the case is not as strong as it once was.
I think we need to resign ourselves to some level of dilution as it is inevitable if they are not able to raise capital from partnering their current drugs (or they just don't think that is the wisest use of capital). If (and I believe it is more likely a question of "when" rather than "if") they do sell additional shares we simply have to hope they tread as lightly as possible on long-suffering shareholders. Since the Odidi's are one of those long suffering shareholders, there is a better chance than normal that legacy shareholders will not get crushed in a new share offering. Also, if Rexista is not dead and they get some generics approved soon, the price of the stock should jump meaningfully, therby reducing the inevitable dilution.
The FDA often makes announcements on Fridays so, there is a chance we get something from them tomorrow.
Maybe we do not get a complete rejection but something that says this is what is needed to move forward (likely the studies the ADCOM wanted to see). But I am just guessing. Anything that indicates Rexista is not totally dead is a win.
Doesn't the company already have the authority to implement a reverse split? Anyone know why they are having this additional special shareholder's meeting (assuming I am right that they already have the authority for a reverse split). If nothing else, the expressed desire to list on a national exchange is an indication management is focused on the future.
Also, I would not be surprised if the hurricanes took a little out of sales in the first half of September as Houston and Florida are large markets.
Bloomberg updates the sales info every Friday.
I suspect the cost recovery aspect to the deal gives them a higher percentage until the additional $8 million is earned. So, I would guess they get 40% until that $8 million comes in and then they drop down to 20%. Just a guess though, but it helps in the short term if I am close to being right.
Here is the Seroquel info - I can't really get you the historical Focalin data - Sorry
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Count By Week
MALLINCKRODT P...
07/28/2017 07/21/2017 07/14/2017 07/07/2017 06/30/2017 06/23/2017 06/16/2017
175.00 183.00 136.00 96.00 117.00 87.00 5.00
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Count Type By Week
MALLINCKRODT P...
09/08/2017 09/01/2017 08/25/2017 08/18/2017 08/11/2017 08/04/2017 07/28/2017
585.00 504.00 443.00 384.00 332.00 221.00 175.00
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Dollars By Week
MALLINCKRODT P...
07/28/2017 07/21/2017 07/14/2017 07/07/2017 06/30/2017 06/23/2017 06/16/2017
112.00k 122.19k 78.49k 71.83k 81.05k 55.20k 2.22k
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE (RX_06147 Comdty)
View TRX Dollars By Week
MALLINCKRODT P...
09/08/2017 09/01/2017 08/25/2017 08/18/2017 08/11/2017 08/04/2017 07/28/2017 07/
415.11k 347.41k 296.82k 248.28k 214.70k 140.41k 112.00k
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Here is the latest update for Seroquel sales - still showing good momentum:
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Dollars By Week
MALLINCKRODT P...
Payment Type 09/08/2017 09/01/2017 08/25/2017 08/18/2017 08/11/2017 08/04/201
Total 415.11k 347.41k 296.82k 248.28k 214.70k 140.41
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
What did you see that was promising?
You might want to revise your comment. It is a fact that the company has no presentations scheduled at ID Week - that is not presumption.
It is also a fact the company is in the midst of trying to raise additional capital and was pitching the stock to the Rodman and Renshaw conference just days ago. I think you would agree that seems to be at odds with your statement as well.
If you don't already know then those "sources" you have spoken of must not be very good.
It is worth noting that there are no PRO 140 presentations at the ID Week conference coming up in a few weeks. This is one of the industry's most important annual conferences and to not be presenting there is not a good sign.
I would just point out that Seroquel is already above a quarterly run rate of $3 million based on August sales. And it looks like the trend is your friend. So, you may well be right for Q3 but looking forward, Seroquel sales may continue to grow.
Here are the Focalin revenues for Par by month:
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule DEXMETHYLPHENIDATE HCL
View TRX Dollars By Month
PAR PHARMA
Payment Type 08/31/2017 07/31/2017 06/30/2017 05/31/2017 04/30/2017 03/31/201
Total 6.69M 5.19M 5.75M 6.61M 6.40M 7.42
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
And this data is only available when you have a Bloomberg subscription which costs about $1,200 per month.
Here is the data in dollars by month:
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Dollars By Month
MALLINCKRODT P...
08/31/2017 07/31/2017 06/30/2017
Total 1.15M 412.51k 138.47k
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Here is the data as of the latest week ending 9/1 - it shows a continued nice progression in the number of prescriptions:
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Count By Week
MALLINCKRODT P...
Data Chart
Payment Type 09/01/2017 08/25/2017 08/18/2017 08/11/2017 08/04/2017 07/28/201
Total 504.00 443.00 384.00 332.00 221.00 175.0
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
The ADCOM was a joke and the FDA likely knows that. Rexista should receive a tentative approval. The issue at this point may be more political than factual. If the FDA leadership feels that going against the panel's recommendation in regard to a new opioid is too risky politically for them, they will CRL Rexista regardless of the facts. If they have courage they will grant tentative approval for IV use and require the blue dye to be removed until the Category III tests are completed. Being that it is a government agency, I am not expecting a lot of courage to be demonstrated.