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The elephant in the room is that the dems didn't start this ... if you catch my drift ... and it remains to be seen how equitable the finish is under the R's. Clearly, neither party has a monopoly on greed, corruption and lying.
please see post 574686
Sean Spicer ... frmr WH press secretary ... there is a saying that there is no such thing a bad publicity ... then again, this time may be different! (nod to Camp 1 campers!!)
just trying to keep things a bit light and respectful ... definitely no sarcasm or offense meant
Looking forward to all of that ... though not sure what that has to do with Ferris Bueller :) ...
Seriously? New investors would LOVE a low IPO price ... though, as I have stated many times, that would also be counter to the warrants - unless the gov't has figured out a way to screw current common while preserving the warrants. I have no idea if that is even possible, but how many would have guessed that two of the largest, most profitable financial institutions could have been forced in cship, with adequate capital, and then forced to issue 80% warrants and 10% non-repayable SPS, see the NWS enacted and find themselves in cship 11+years later? What kind of smell test would have caught that? All of this, and much more (multiple court losses, 11K hiddent docs, etc.) simply go to show that nothing is certain when it comes to the ultimate resolution of this for CURRENT shareholders. cheers
This post seems to encompass the two camps here:
The "This time is going to be different" camp who believe we're head for release and CURRENT shareholder will be rewarded with $6-$18 (or higher) in the next 12-18 months (or sooner).
And the "Burn me twice, shame on me" camp who believe that we SEEM to be headed for release, but there is incredible concern that current common will get screwed in the process (with $6 maybe being the upside? (my guess))
Market, aka lemmings (count me in), is clearly in the second camp.
I forget all of the specific time frames, but I think in the next 6 months we'll see how Judge Atlas rules on the en banc remand, if the SCOTUS agrees to hear the en banc appeal, if Sweeney allows her case to go forward and reveal the 11K docs and, most importantly, how much longer Sean survives on DWTS ... cheers, Shadow
nov 1, 2016 ... $4.49
nov 1, 2019 ... $3.11 ... -30%
so, yeah, you are going to say (again) that ytd is a common performance time period ... and that is correct ... but is also correct that it is totally arbitrary. it seems to be your main justification that things are different ... yes, they are ... but just because the foundation has been repaired after the flood swept away the house doesn't mean our equity has increased (which it hasn't, yet, if you are being honest about the increased SPS liquidation preference)
my mind is made up (subject to new information) ... sounds like yours is as well ... so exchanges like these hopefully provide a balance of input for those still deciding ... cheers
you are totally correct ... its a new day ... we've moved from a complete taking under a rship to an 80% taking + unknown NWS resolution + unknown recap dilution + unknown g fee changes + unknown JPS conversion + unknown competition ... and that's just the unknowns we know about! yeah, its a new day, but the market is telling us that they don't have confidence in the outcome - amount or timing - for existing shareholders. btw, i really do hope you are right. i'm holding my 50K pre-cship common shares until the zero-or-hero moment arrives. truly gltua. cheers,shadow
Obi, endless thanks for your incredible perspective and informative contributions. Re current pps and dynamic tension between bulls and bears, these few lines sum it up for me:
However, possible future actions to be taken in this part of the big picture by the players involved are uncertain.
The opinions of anonymous observers are usually inconsequential in the decisions and actions of the actual players in the picture. The decisions and actions of the actual players in this part of the big picture count.
A useful focus is to be carefully attentive to those actors who have actual authority and power to decide and act (Justices, judges, clerks, attorneys for the plaintiffs and defendants (shareholders, Mnuchin, Calabria) and certain lawmakers. Since these minds cannot be read and there is little direct ongoing access to the actual players, actors in this picture, imagination and speculation substitute for fact and certainty. That is the way it has been and is. Outsiders looking in and trying to make sense of the current circumstances with inadequate information.
And your conclusion ... Wait and see. Like a roll of dice, outcomes will appear.
cheers, shadow
Exactly! As opposed to the R's who only told everyone FnF were adequately capitalized while telling their buddies at Eton Park the opposite, then put the companies in cship while imposing the 80% warrants, non-repayable 10% SPS and a complete write-down of DTAs. Whew, thank goodness they weren't greedy ...
amelia, thanks and appreciate your posts as well. The mostly extremely optimistic views on the board are hard to take in light of the 11+ years, low pps and govt's continued hostile legal behavior. The number of those on my ignore list has grown considerably as I try to screen out traders (good folks, just very different investment goals) which has helped. I also follow Tim Howard's board. cheers, shadow
PS Speaking of Tim Howard, if you haven't seen it, there is a very good exchange about the govt's cert request - and how its filing MIGHT have been intentionally delayed to significantly REDUCE the chances it would be granted. Worth a read as it suggests the possibility that the gov't is maneuvering to save face (with FnF opponents) while trying to settle with P's ... as some on this board have more generally suggested.
Steel, there is a lot of pumping and dumping on the board - a totally legitimate exchange for traders, but (IMO) not really connected to the actual resolution of this mess. I also feel that too many have prematurely conflated an RRR with a successful outcome for EXISTING shareholders - but market sentiment and the pps TOTALLY reflect significant uncertainty in the outcome. Don't be swayed from being rightfully confused/hesitant by those trying to hype every pps flicker up or down. The WS forces that put FnF in cship and imposed the NWS are STILL very much in charge. Having said that, a few judges have sided with us and I DO think the tide has turned a bit in our favor. Regardless, many years ago, I committed myself to the "zero or hero" sentiment (love that expression), so I'm in it to the bitter (or better) end. cheers, shadow
UST: hey, new investor, I would like you to help with the recap of FnF
New $: cool, can I assume their future earnings will be similar to current earnings for modeling valuations?
UST: well, we're thinking about leveling the playing field and enabling competitors, so maybe not
New $: so you can't tell me how much market share FnF will lose to new competitors? How the hell am I supposed to model? I may be New $, but I wasn't born yesterday ...
"To foster competition that serves consumers, the new strategic plan and scorecard aim to provide a level playing field for all market participants such that success depends on running a better business rather than special regulatory and statutory advantages,” the FHFA states."
Competition to FnF? Well, that will be dandy ... So, what, we ignore statements like that because it will require congressional approval that will likely never happen?
anyone interested in investing in FnF has 4 simplistic choices (excluding options and more exotic WS stuff):
1 buy common or pref now
2 buy new common (or pref?) at recap stage
3 some combination of the first two
4 do nothing
given the stagnation of pps, I wonder how many are waiting for #2. and why would they do that? oh, maybe they have insider info that suggests #2 will be a lot better than #1. don't believe insider info is leaking to big money? just goggle eton parks - and that's just the stuff we know about ... opponents of this theory will say its doesn't have to be a zero sum game where new $ benefits at expense of old $ ... of course, they're right ... WS is well known for their eleemosynary, egalitarian, equality-based propensities ... just ask folks why road kill is the viagra of WS ...
well, there is the saying that actions speak much louder than words ... and ALL of the admin's actions in the courts say "screw current shareholders" and we have NO idea of how current shareholders will fare under a RRR, so either way, MC's comments are just meaningless words (as stupid and ill advised as they may be). I know you trust one or two smart/in-the-know sources for a good outcome, but we had truly brilliant legal scholars who got burned repeatedly by the courts, so I can't put too much faith in hope-based opinions. Until some one offers a rational explanation of why the gov't remains hell bent on the law suits while holding the warrants, I say anything can happen. cheers
My feelings exactly. I wrote this off emotionally and financially a long time ago and am willing to push to the max ... however, I'm not funding the law suits and P's may feel differently
Why is the govt still doing everything possible to thwart current shareholders when they hold the warrants?
This is a critical, and maybe the most important, question.
Is it a negotiating ploy to get P's to settle for less? I don't think P's will be bluffed that easily, and damaging P's should hurt the value of the warrants - unless that part isn't true for some very disturbing reason.
I think this is why we are where we are ... the market might believe we're heading for RRR, but they fear current shareholders might get royally screwed by the current administration (not the totally paralyzed congress) in the process.
We can retain a gazillion dollars in profits, hire consultants, debate g-fees and reserve levels, but as long as the SPS liquidation preference increases $ for $ with profit retention and the suits continue, we will bounce around in a $2-$5 trading range.
"... some mixture of hope, wishful thinking, and WAGing" My investment thesis in a nut shell!
its all ok ... its just Snidely Whiplash (MC) who has tied Nell (FnF) to the tracks ... but Dudley-Do-Right (POTUS) will save the day
Dang, i was worried if the choo choo express had enough track laid out in the front, but I forgot to check to see if they REMOVED the track behind us so they we couldn't go backwards ...
Great buying opportunity ... unless gov't really has figured out way to preserve value of warrants, wipe out current shareholders and avoid new law suits (again, doesn't seem likely to me) cheers
So far, NO ONE has stood up for existing shareholders except a few judges. Why only a few? Because the rest have bought into the Big Lie, so they twisted the law beyond recognition to support it - which is why I thought MC's comment could hurt us if it in any way perpetuates the Big Lie in the minds of judges yet to rule.
But what I find the most perplexing of all is the warrants. The warrants should align the gov't with existing shareholders - yet the gov't still fights us tooth and nail. Some say its to strengthen their (gov't) negotiating position, but they are already entitled to 80% of the common. So, what, the gov't wants even more while trying to settle the law suits (which we all assume is needed for RRR and to maximize the value of the warrants)? Ain't going to happen. So IF its true that the interests of current shareholders are indirectly protected by the warrants, everything should work out (notwithstanding the complete travesty that we lost 80% of our company in the first place). BUT, we better hope the govt's total unwillingness to stop the suits is only for appearance sake - and not some indication that they have figured out a way to screw existing shareholders while preserving the value of the warrants. Doesn't seem likely, and more lawsuits would follow, but the conflicting interests of the lawsuits and warrants is really perplexing to me. cheers
One perspective is that Calabria's comment was a harmless reply to a stupid statement. However, the Big Lie has been going long and strong for over 11 years, and we have paid/suffered dearly for it. Calabria's flippant comment SUGGESTS that there may very well be some as-yet-uncovered circumstances that will justify a shareholder wipe out. Given our 11-year old circumstances, it didn't feel harmless to me.
BTW, endless thanks for all of your incredibly informative posts. cheers
Calarbria is in WAY OVER his head. As another poster said, good luck with new investors with that kind of bs being spoken out loud. Still, that should be a reminder that NO ONE is publicly defending existing shareholders besides a few judges ... and I really mean just a few. The choo choo express may have lot of passengers, but not sure that much track has been cleared for us ...
ok, thanks. so IF the admin is motivated, it seems that the only reason to continue the NWS, lawsuits, hidden docs, etc. would be for leverage against the P's, but if true, that would seem to be contrary to the interest of current shareholders ... which wouldn't make sense if warrants are exercised ... what a CF ... can't wait to see how they unravel this mess. cheers, shadow
"and the administration was already motivated to complete recap and release" ... how do you conclude that? and what makes you think a RRR will be good for common even if it does happen "soon"?
GREED isn't a left of right thing. Greed put FnF into c-ship in the first place - just days after declaring them adequately capitalized - and then GREED declared the NWS, aggressively fought against the P's in ongoing lawsuits, continued the NWS despite the en banc decision and continues to hide 11K docs. If it weren't for a few judges with backbone, we'd be toast - and the market is still incredibly skeptical of how commons and JPS will fare in a RRR. About the only thing LEFT is that we need the courts to gets this RIGHT before we all die of old age.
you mean like ending the sweep, returning the over payment, fast tracking settlement talks ... all of those kind of things?
Just wondering ... Trump is under increasing pressure (impeachment, tax returns, trade wars, Syria, etc.) and I'm wondering if he will begin to pull out the stops for some wins to strengthen his image. I am one of those that thinks the RRR is a 1-2 year play, but what if a $100B plus windfall from the warrants is just the kind of win Trump could use (i.e., I took care of tax payers - and I'm a financial wiz for solving the problem). That seems far fetched, but Trump could really accelerate this thing if he wanted to.
yeah, i do
especially regarding a few posters who belittle those with different opinions and include inexcusably inappropriate memes in their posts that have nothing to do with FnF. they are the most reprehensible
still, many others others try to keep it on topic, and a few are absolute treasurers (think obi)
i have used the ignore feature to block the trash, and found the board way more useful
cheers, shadow
nats1, great perspective, much appreciated
skeptic7, I agree. The optimists say the rule-of-law admin will do the right thing, but what does that mean, and when? I think there is a very high chance that we WILL see a RRR in 1-2 years, but that commons could get diluted even more than the Moelis plan, all in legal ways. We could see the recap/loss reserve set too high, a JPS conversion rate unfair to common, and the IPO price set low to ensure enough new investors are attracted. All that means more dilution - on top of the warrants (unless magically cancelled by the tooth fairy). And all bets are off (to the down side) if the gov't moves to charter competitors - which I don't expect, but who would have expected an 11+ year cship with 10% SPS div AND 80% warrants AND the NWS? So I guess folks like you and I (and, ahem, the market) are just lemmings who don't have the vision to jump on the choo choo express that is shoveling our shares into the boiler as we barrel towards the big pay day. Just not sure its going to be ours ... cheers, shadow
"future" capital requirements: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-03/when-climate-change-leads-to-mortgage-defaults?srnd=premium
There are some days that I am hopeful ... and then someday's when I feel like RULE of LAW stands for Ruthless Unscrupulous Lying Elites of Limitless Apathetic Wealth. Will we get LOA or LOL tomorrow? I think we get LOA that increases capital retention with commensurate increase in liquidation preference (pending remand of en banc decision). cheers, shadow
Totally agree. This board is like having incredibly intelligent mathematicians speculate on which ticket they'll pull out of a barrel, but the barrel has 1,000 tickets in it (or maybe 11,000 ;) cheers, shadow
Not sure anyone outside of our echo chamber knows about the 11K docs, 91% republicans reportedly support Trump, many dems MIGHT stay home if their personal favorite candidate isn't nominated and the electoral college disproportionately favors Trump by just enough to make a difference - again. Re the 11K docs, didn't someone (Sweeney?) impose a discovery restriction that excluded all docs except those pertaining to the sweep? IF that is correct, then the docs may not help Wash Fed that much (which is focused on the holy grail (cship)) unless discovery is expanded by Sweeney should she find that Wash Fed has standing and they move towards trial. Anyway, blah, blah, blah ... like you, I still REALLY want to see what (and who) is covered in the docs, but short of the courts growing a few more spines, I'm not sure we'll ever see them, and the REAL deep state will remain hidden. cheers, shadow
still don't see any evidence AT ALL that our stable, rule-of-law genius - and his expanded posse of fellow travelers - have any intentions of doing the right thing ...
despite whatever one's conviction, there is no question that the market is still wondering how this will unfold ... most would say that ending the sweep is major positive, but I still maintain that its HOW they end it that matters ... and the BIG LIE narrative is still in full force. LOTs of dust still needs to settle on excess sweep payments, warrants, capital requirements and competition ... and as they say in scuba diving, "Don't hold your breadth"
yes, blinds them to common's cents!