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Worried? It's guaranteed, likely 8-1. Take that to the bank.
Thanks Hezwkia for the excellent post. There are many reasons to sell a stock, only one reason to buy. He still has a good portion of his personal wealth tied up in the company. You'd really have to know more about his personal finances to know if this sale was done for legitimate practical purposes or if it was something other than that. I feel fairly certain any major shareholders or purchasers of the secondary would have been advised of the sale prior to it happening. Whatever, my opinion of Avita's prospects haven't changed. Good entry point I believe. Thanks again.
Truce Mike, meant no disrespect in any of my posts. You're OK in my book. Didn't mean to brag, was just feeling good about it.
Thanks,I tend to make big bets with the risk portion of my holdings. It's worked out over the long haul, but there have been tragic moments along the way. Hoping this may be my last outing. But I'll always keep a little on the side to play with. I obviously love Avita, but if the story changes hopefully so will my position.
The only ongoing concern for me here is possible entry of competition. But I've gone through the FDA database and don't see the possibility of any real competition for several years at this point. First to market matters, and this is it.
Should read "stupid folks like me".
Let him enjoy his moment in the sun. Assume he is referring to stupid folks like who bought some last week above 9. My basis went from 1.25 on 137500 shares to 2.02 on 155500 shares, with 3000 more shares to buy. Hope to survive my stupidity.
You're right Mike, you're the smartest guy in the room. But you got a little bit lucky with the unexpected capital raise, which many, even you I believe, didn't expect until sometime next year. Biggest reason for the drop. Bought some earlier at 8.06, one more buy left, lower or higher.
Amazing they found anyone to take the last offering. Only 13-G filed was by a real estate management firm in NYC. Not your usual biotech investor. Must have needed a tax write off.
Nope, I'm good.
I'm no expert but having invested in individual stocks for 35 years I have picked up a few things. Learned a lot the hard way.
Love how they didn't even mention product sales in the top of the release. Weren't sales 300k last Q? Sales went down? Man, what a great company...not.
Defiantly earned it, best typo ever.
Thanks If. Look, I know I get a little preachy sometimes and I don't intend to be. Everyone has their own set of circumstances and their own experiences relating to investing. But I see so many at the moment running down management for this latest move. I feel fairly certain this wasn't something they decided last Tuesday. I'm sure they did a study of their capital requirements to get all the various trials, approvals, launches, production, etc done and figured now was a good moment to raise the capital. I agree with keepsmiling that the bar for executive compensation was set too low, but in today's world unfortunately it's not uncommon. They've done a good job for me to this point so I'm sticking around for the ride. Got some bids in, hope I hit them.
What you are looking at is the additional shares recently added to the compensation plan. The offering was oversubscribed and they ended up selling 203mil shares for 120mil AUD. This was an unusual confluence of events. There was over 40mil short position put on prior to the NASDAQ uplisting, likely major longs protecting their downside against a pullback after uplist. Pullback didn't happen, shorts stayed on. Then a surprise early inclusion into the ASX200 happened, price spiked. Shorts stayed on expecting pullback after index rebalancing, a known phenomena. Some sold on the spike based on that phenomenon. But before that could happen Avita surprised all us retail shoppers with an equity raise at .59, a 14.5% discount to final closing price, 7.5% discount to 30 day average. So the ETF funds got filled at a lower price and the shorts got a great opportunity to close their positions. None of the above is ever likely to happen again in that order and no one but those involved in the equity offering could have predicted it. All of the above activities are true, conclusions drawn are my own.
What didn't happen is that Avita did not declare bankruptcy.
Hey riks, been seeing a lot of Sublocade adds on TV, and they have plenty of money for marketing and sales. Titan could have had the subdural market to themselves for several years if they hadn't screwed it up so badly. Sad.
Sunil and Marc can likely get professorships at Wharton teaching a class on what not to do in business.
Jugs, don't try to catch a falling knife. AVH closed at .59, equivalent to 8.03 here. I'll give the Aussie's another trading day and see where we are then. Keeping my powder dry.
Yep, may see 8 after all. Shorts are having their way with it on the ASX.
Guessing the index funds got all they needed last night in Australia. So far the pullback is what one might have expected after the rebalancing for the ASX200. Interesting confluence of events. Already regretting not buying at the open. Back up to where I started buying last week.
Guess I'll watch a little longer, hope I don't end up buying at 10.
S'all good man.
Close equivalent to 8.66/sh for RCEL. Doubt we'll do 7.5mil shares tomorrow. Would think we'd track AVH pretty closely the next few days. They are definitely driving the bus.
Details are available on the ASX under AVH announcements. 203mil shares for 120mil raise.
Been covered here before, but since I brought it up, I'll explain.
Avita is an Australian listed company, AVH symbol on the ASX.
AVMXF was the original OTC ADR for AVH at a 1 to 1 ratio in the US. Divide AVMXF price by AUD to USD exchange rate to get the AVH equivalent price. The depository for the ADR's was and is BNY Mellon. In 2012 they listed AVMXY at a 20 to 1 ratio as the new ADR for AVH. Holders of AVMXF were granted a grace period to exchange them for AVMXY shares without a fee. AVMXF shares are no longer registered with Avita but still have value and can be transferred to AVMXY shares for a fee. But they trade on their own, unattached to Avita so the trade halt did not apply to them. Hope that answers your question.
Now just hanging around for the announcement, or the start of trading in 45 minutes.
AVMXF closed at the equivalent to .66 for AVH.
Agree with risk54 100%. His last point is a very cogent one. Should they get an offer(s) a strong balance sheet will give them a good bargaining position. Others have already stated their opinions. Ultimately the question you're really asking, should I buy more or sell, you'll have to answer for yourself. Depends on your investment horizon, how large a percentage of your portfolio you would feel comfortable with Avita being, etc. Best of luck.
If a couple of comments made on Hot Copper about the strength of subscription to this offering, it may get hit at the open only to finish up. Going to be an interesting Wednesday.
Just noticed AVMXF traded 92K shares today. Previous close .48, low .42, today's close .459 down -4.37%. Likely not a good indicator, but interesting at least.
Considering tdeck has it at 10 by Xmas and I had it at 10 by end of 3rd qtr 2020, ill5take 12 by year end. S'all good man.
Figured you'd want to, so I left it open. Already said we might see 8 again, so we have no disagreement there. But once again, after the raise at .08 all the stock did was go up, so there's that.
9% what I came up with also. Dilutions I'm not fond of are those with warrants attached that can double the dilution and are usually done out of desperation. Or massive compensation plan options. Not the case here. For a modest dilution current shareholders will get a 100mil bump in equity that should get the company through all it's current trials for other uses. That in turn gives a huge bump to future sales and revenues. Good for current shareholders. And depending on who subscribes to the offering it may have little negative effect on current share price. If those who buy plan on holding they won't be selling back into the open market. And yes, I'm painting the optimistic view. I could paint the alternate view but I'm not so inclined.
The last offering was at .08 for half a billion shares. Price never went below .08 and was at .39 within 3 months of the offering. That was a 37% dilution raising $40 mil. This will be a 9% dilution raising $100 mil. We might see 8 again but I doubt it will last long. $100 mil will go a long way toward getting to their ultimate goal of $2 billion in sales. Investors understand that.
Jugs, the fool's errand has been trying to predict short term moves in this stock this past year. There was one earlier when it went from 4.85 to 7.50 in one day and the one week move from 7.25 to 9.80. Other than those 2 there really haven't been any really major tradeable moves. But I've seen quite a few predicted that haven't materialized. When it was at 7.25 quite a few were predicting sub 5. I don't know if we'll go below 9 again or not, I'm comfortable with my own predictions and am invested accordingly. But I'm all for people making money in whatever manner makes sense to their investing objectives.
Good for you. My shares are just now starting to go long term, mainly in a cash account, so trading thus far would have only generated income for Uncle Sam. Only just now getting the opportunity to buy any subtantial amount in my tax sheltered account. Will trade in there when the opportunity arises. Point being everyone's situation and investment goals aren't the same.
Probably won't be until next Thursday earliest. Funds will be buying through the 13th, inclusion in ASX200 takes effect on open the 14th. But who knows what the price will be by then between funds buying and shorts trying to unwind. Might never see 9 again. How's that "dump" thing working out for you so far? Predicting where this stock is going next has been a fool's errand so far this year.
Jugs, I count my blessings every day, but Merrill still pissed me off. Life goes on.
Jugs, picked up another 9500 shares today, hope to get at least another 9500 before I'm done. Sad, costing me more than double for less than 20k shares when I could have bought 65-70k shares last year for less than have the principal. Thanks for "protecting" me from myself Merrill Lynch.
I'll probably buy half tomorrow then wait until the funds are done buying. Got a dip after inclusion in the 300. Sound reasonable?
Yep, saw that, Nov. 14th. Damn, been waiting patiently to deploy the 180k in my 401K hoping for a little better price. Guess I'll just have to bite the bullet tomorrow. Those shorts are likely toast.
Thanks. All in good time.
Shush, Titan's management has worked hard to keep it a secret.
In that case maybe my phone isn't as dumb as I thought.
I'd guess the number under yahoo statistics is fairly close. Believe they had around 20mil prior to adding the 20mil shares and 20mil warrants, so the 57mil+ listed on yahoo sounds about right. Then divide that by whatever RS ratio they ultimately come up with.
Been out for over 3 years now, still love the product and do hope that some of the long suffering longs here manage to get out with their skin on. But this management team is simply atrocious. Wish I'd listened to some naysayers back in 2013. Ended up not losing much, but the opportunity cost hurt, others things I was in did quite well. Good luck to you.