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Fmello, not cello. Smartphone strikes again.
Yep jugs, I know, just trying to help cello rationalize his 12.5mm. Going back to sleep now.
65% US sales growth Q to Q would put them at $7.5mm. Throw in BARDA and international and you might get to $11mm. But I'd surely take $12.5mm.
Empery has 2 employees and I believe 2 clients. Been around since 2008 with current assets under management around $300 million. Virtually all of their holdings are in microcap biotechs. Pulled up a sample 20 holdings. Highest price was $11/sh, lowest was $.30/sh, half were under $1/sh and most were under $2/sh. Average market cap was in the mid $20 millions. They hold just under 300 of this type stock, so I guess they cast a wide net where a few major winners outperform their losers. Hard to say whether they care about where these stocks are listed. I'm sure Sunil is hoping they will vote yes on RS as he wants to keep his NASDAQ listing.
My 2 cents. Before I bought I ran the numbers and felt that sales numbers by 1st quarter 2020 would support the premise that Recell will become standard of care for burns and a stock price of $10 at that point. My opinion hasn't changed and we'll know better by Friday. I think ultimate sales for all indications once approved will be somewhere between Blackcranes estimate of $850mm and Avita's 2B, which would support a conservative share price of $25-50/sh. Kicker is that neither of those estimates include cosmetics, the biggest market of all, which we may hear something on soon.
That said much of this is still speculative, so taking principal off the table if you have large profit wouldn't be a dumb thing to do. That's all Redmile did. They bought AVH at. 08-.10 AUD. The 12% they sold covers their principal and makes their clients smile. Karst has done the same a couple times over the past year. Idea is to make money.
Easy money was made over the past year for those that got in early, it will get harder from here, but I do think Avita still has the potential to outperform the market. But market uptake for new indications is still a risk and should be understood. Higher returns always carry higher risk.
I do plan on taking my initial investment off the table at some point this year now that all my shares are long term.
Each should buy, sell, hold or trade in whatever way makes them comfortable.
Good luck.
Titan, the NASDAQ equivalent of pyrite. Soon to be the OTC equivalent of pyrite.
Good for tax sheltered accounts, not so much for cash accounts. If I sold now it would have to go just over 8 to break even after taxes and it would reset my shares to short term taxable. No thanks.
Thought I saw somewhere the special meeting for the RS vote was the 16th, tomorrow. Anyway, some might want to read the "Risks" section of the recent prospectus:
Risks Related to This Offering
The proceeds of this offering will only be sufficient to fund our operations for an additional few months and we will need to raise additional capital shortly, which may not be available on acceptable terms.
The net proceeds of this offering, together with our available capital, will only be sufficient to fund our operations through September 2020 and we will need to raise additional capital shortly following completion of this offering in order to expand our commercial infrastructure. There can be no assurance that we will be able to raise the necessary funds on acceptable terms, if at all, or that any alternatives will be available to us to enable operations to continue beyond such time.
Management will have broad discretion as to the use of the proceeds from this offering, and we may not use the proceeds effectively.
We intend to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital. Our management will have broad discretion in the application of the net proceeds from this offering and could spend the proceeds in ways that do not improve our results of operations or enhance the value of our common stock. Our failure to apply these funds effectively could have a material adverse effect on our business and cause the price of our common stock to decline.
You will experience immediate and substantial dilution in the net tangible book value per share of the common stock you purchase.
Since the price per share of our common stock being offered is substantially higher than the net tangible book value per share of our common stock, you will suffer immediate and substantial dilution in the net tangible book value of the common stock you purchase in this offering. Based on an offering price of $0.25 per share, if you purchase shares of common stock in this offering, you will suffer immediate and substantial dilution of $0.28 per share with respect to the net tangible book value of the common stock. See the section entitled “Dilution” below for a more detailed discussion of the dilution you will incur if you invest in this offering.
You may experience future dilution as a result of future equity offerings and other issuances of our common stock or other securities. In addition, this offering and future equity offerings and other issuances of our common stock or other securities may adversely affect our common stock price.
In order to raise additional capital, we may in the future offer additional shares of our common stock or other securities convertible into or exchangeable for our common stock at prices that may not be the same as the price per share in this offering. We may not be able to sell shares or other securities in any other offering at a price per share that is equal to or greater than the price per share paid by the investor in this offering, and investors purchasing shares or other securities in the future could have rights superior to existing stockholders. The price per share at which we sell additional shares of our common stock or securities convertible into common stock in future transactions may be higher or lower than the price per share in this offering. In addition, we are issuing warrants to purchase 8,700,000 shares of common stock in a concurrent private placement. You will incur dilution upon exercise of any outstanding stock options, warrants or upon the issuance of shares of common stock under our stock incentive programs. In addition, the sale of shares in this offering and any future sales of a substantial number of shares of our common stock in the public market, or the perception that such sales may occur, could adversely affect the price of our common stock. We cannot predict the effect, if any, that market sales of those shares of common stock or the availability of those shares for sale will have on the market price of our common stock
USE OF PROCEEDS
We estimate that the net proceeds from this offering will be approximately $1.9 million, after deducting the placement agent fees and the estimated offering expenses payable by us.
The proceeds from this offering are expected to be sufficient to enable us to continue operations for only a short period of time. We expect that we will have to raise such additional funds through the sale of additional equity or equity backed securities. Any future equity or equity linked financing that we may need may not be able available on terms favorable to us or at all.
We intend to use the proceeds for working capital. We may temporarily invest the net proceeds in short-term, interest-bearing instruments or other investment-grade securities.
Closed at 10.48 equivalent in Australia. Tdeck and the Moonboys, good name for a band.
Might have been a little bit of a squeeze going on. May get one in Australia tonight. Will settle back down a bit once it's done. Just noise. Think December.
That will really depend on why it goes up (or down for that matter). Several catylists coming up, should be an interesting year. And there's always the chance they might get an offer they can't refuse. Anyone out in the that eventuality will have left a pile on the table and in their shorts.
lipster, you do understand that if they don't get the RS they will be delisted in March? This is not going over a dollar based on revenues, which were down 30% from the previous quarter. They will have enough cash to continue operations until about July 2020. What happens after that? Another equity raise and another RS? And who in their right mind is going to buy the next equity raise? The only people buying it now are penny stock junkies. Maybe Titan could come up with an implant to cure that disease.
Guessing they buyer will vote for the RS. This sale is not about raising equity, it's about keeping their NASDAQ listing. Good luck, if you own it you'll need it.
Dang Fitz, beat me to it. But from his recent crawfish on his $12 prediction his prognostications only count when they work out.
Thanks #1 Moon Boy. I'm quite sure the list of things you've never heard of is truly impressive. Happy New Year.
Mike, your concern for the welfare of your fellow man is deeply touching. A true humanitaruan.
Some may have sold expecting that big dump last week. I doubt many serious traders look at a 4% pullback as a "dump", so they will either have to move on, hope for a better entry point or buy back higher. I have nothing against trading stocks, especially in tax protected accounts. Been trading ACAD off and on for six years, it's had a lot of 20-50% swings over that time. I wouldn't consider 4% a tradeable event. I also don't need the tax headaches trading in a cash account. All my RCEL shares will be long term in a couple of weeks. Don't really care to go back to short term until it's on my terms.
Dumb last week.
Sorry, you are correct, most tax issues are based on the sales date. The exception is short sales at a loss, which are based on the settlement date.
3 days to settle, today is it.
Last day for tax selling. Guess they took care if that last month.
Mike, your $12 by year end prediction will always make you moon boy #1 in my book. Happy Holidays bud.
Happy Holidays to you all. Enjoying a family trip in our nation's capital.
Which is why I've had my target of 10 for early May 2020. By then I believe Dr. Foster's quote will be apparent to the burn practioners, insurance companies and the market. At which point projections and higher prices will begin to be supported by fundamentals. But still hoping Tdeck gets his Christmas wish.
Closed at 8.73 equivalent in Australia. Maybe a short squeeze for Xmas.
Scalds not scales
Sounds like 2020 Q1/Q2 for Japan. Pediatric scales trial to begin Q1 2020, so earliest you'd likely see submission to FDA likely Q1 2021. Glacier speed of the process can be annoying with pharma companies. Is what it is.
I double dog dare 'em. (it's that time of year)
If memory serves Recell was used on a female patient with flesh eating bacteria a year or so ago in the US.
Just noticed AVMXF traded 446k shares today. Probably doesn't mean anything, but interesting.
AUD to USD back up over .69, every little bit helps.
See Fitz took care of HC posting. Thanks fir the heads up. Maybe some of the hand wringers will start to relax. Was explaining Avita to a friend today and reconvinced myself of what a great find this has been. Always good to worry a little, but I've never been less worried about an investment.
BNY Melon has added AVH's shares backing the ADRs. Should put the number of RCEL ADR's outstanding at around 27mil, or about 25% of the total market cap. Few more North American owner's.
Gooo? And what the heck is a "BioTuesdays Pre-JPM Virtual Conference"? Sounds like something to do when you have no funds for a real conference.
As far as I can determine they haven't even submitted an NDA to the FDA yet.
A month or so ago we discussed Stratagraft's product which is in trials. It's a storable sheet graft (don't remember all the technical details) that can be cut and then sutured or stapled to burn wounds. Although I don't see it as a direct competitor to Recell, I think what's going on in NZ is a perfect fit for use of their product. Catastrophic event with large number of victims in a remote area. Interesting to see if it was used in that event.
Hmmm, think you might be on to something Cre8.
44k per year.
Think they said @44000 in a PR awhile back. Don't know how many shifts that accounts for, 1, 2 or 3.
Thanks Fitz. The Bell Potter estimates at the bottom of the article appear to be well off. 480 units at 7500 equals 3.6mil sales. But they had US sales of 4.6mil in this last quarter, or over 600 units. We'll see at the end of January, but I'd guess we'll already be in the 8 to 9 hundred unit range for the last quarter of 2019. So next year should be substantially better than his estimate.
I had that thought also, but it wasn't clear during the interview. Overall it was a definite positive.