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About 2 million shares traded at close. Me likey.
Really like the volume of late, here and in Australia.
Just basically saying Vericel is either overvalued or Avita is at least a little undervalued. Truth probably lies somewhere in between.
I had mentioned Vericel as a comparable. It did 18mm in revenue last quarter, its best to date. 3.14B Mkt cap. I think within 18 months Avita will be doing those kind of numbers. A similar mkt cap would make it $122/sh. Just saying.
Thanks fmellow, been on vacation.
I remember reading about Stratagraft awhile back. I believe it will have a niche for use in large catastrophes as I believe it can be stored and cut to fit the burn area. But it's cost and healing properties are inferior to Recell. I genuinely believe Recell will eat Epicel's lunch now that they are in the same space. Cheaper, quicker and better cosmetics. Epicel has been in use since the late 90's and I believe is still mainly used in the Northeast US.
Sounds about right.
Volume proceeds price.
I think traumatic wounds may ultimately get a label expansion similar to pediatrics once practioners begin using it off label more. Some already are, more will follow. So maybe sometime in 2023 instead of 2024. Think we'll have a better feel for vitiligo by end of year. First half of 2023 possibly. Hope to be getting an update on their cosmetic collaboration by this fall sometime.
AVH closed at the equivalent of 21.53 for RCEL.
I'm not so big on predicting stock prices, especially short term. But comparing it to Vericel, similar company, could be instructive. They had about $18mm revenue last quarter, best to date. Market cap of $2.6B, or almost 6 times that of Avita. Their burn product, Epicel, did $8mm of revenue, by far their best quarter for that product. It is far more expensive than Recell and has a 2-3 day turn around, not 30 minutes like Recell. With the label expansion we are now competing directly in Epicel's market, burns over 50%. Their main market is in the Northeast US. As Recell takes hold across the US I believe Recell will eventually eat Epicel's lunch.
So question: is Vericel really worth 6 times Avita with only twice the revenue and not as much pipeline? I for one don't think so.
Another minor point, they just brought on 2 new income streams about 2 years ahead of schedule. Yep, these guys are completely clueless...not.
Short answer is no.
You're very welcome.
Australian law requires tax payment for the full amount when options are exercised, not as in the US when the underlying shares are sold. So that's why he sells some of the shares shortly after he exercised the options. He still holds most of the excercised shares.
Plus an expansion for all patients with burns above 50%. In record time. And costs for pediatric trials disappear leaving more resources to go after vitiligo, traumatic wounds and possibly something new (DFU maybe?)
We already know that, but it won't be because of some random poster on a message board.
All they said in the conference call was that they in conjunction with Cosmotec are in constant communication with the Japanese authorities. Think they have given up making predictions about government agencies. Hoping would be a better term.
And the Cosmotec application is broad range for all uses, not just burns. So it really wasn't too surprising that they asked for more data.
Guess you missed the announcement a little later that year (Sept-Oct) that Japan had requested further documentation in August . It was assembled and submitted early winter but pushed back the time frame far enough to get into pandemic time. Most people don't understand how time consuming, costly and frustrating the approval process can be with entities like the FDA. It takes them a month to post meeting notes.
Thanks Fmello
The real issue throughout the past year has been less about sellers and more about a lack of buyers.
Same reason the outpatient Medicare payment is delayed, government agencies have had other priorities of late. Looking through the 13-F filings on Edgar shows little selling by major shareholders throughout this sell-off. The fairly low volume would indicate mostly retail. Nothing material has changed other than the recent equity raise (once again oversubscribed). And that gives them the wherewithal to complete their 3 trials and finish the burn rollout. Covid slowed things down, it didn't end them.
Thanks. Anyone who took the time to listen to the conference call should be feeling pretty good about where the company is headed. I still believe it's a solid business plan that they continue to work diligently and are obviously excited about the future. Covid is still an issue but hopefully people won't get too stupid and we can get past it. Not for widows and orphans, but I think this company has a bright future. Microsoft, Google and Amgen were considered high risk early on. Do your due diligence.
You probably would be able to own few tech or biotechnology companies since few pay dividends.
Although this is not a "start up", it is in the early stages of commercialization and covid has had an effect on progress since it hit only a year in to product launch. New medical technology takes time to take root. But nevertheless they have continued to make exceptional progress in penetration of the burn market.
Vitiligo is next up, pediatric scales at some point and traumatic wounds. All have been greatly derisk since they fundamentally do the same thing as Recell, replace damaged skin with new. Two of the three are much larger markets than burns.
Down the road there is cosmetic use, genetic disorders, diabetic foot ulcers, etc..
That said this is still a speculative stock and shouldn't be held as anything other than high risk portion of a portfolio.
Doesn't really sound like it's in your wheelhouse and you probably shouldn't own it.
I hope this is the last time you post on this topic. Not even sure why you would continue, a very kind and decent gentleman has passed through this world, great investor or not it's a smaller place with his passing. We should all work on the things in life that will people think the same of us someday.
But that $10 figure from Bell Potter is for AVH shares in Australia which is currently trading at $5. You are likely correct as to why the dump, but the price would still have to double from here to reach their target. Afraid this will be a "show me" stock for awhile.
You have no worries then as Avita is now a US domiciled company on the NASDAQ. It trades as a foreign company (CDI's) on the ASX in Australia.
This will be the same process for pediatric scalds and traumatic wounds.
This was applied for under a PMA with FDA guidance. Once it's filed the FDA will either approve it based on the data given or will require further data. Up to the FDA. The application is greatly derisked by having an approved product that does fundamentally the same thing, replace damaged skin with new skin.
Also much more expensive than Recell.
I had no doubt they'd be doing another raise, but after redomiciling in the middle of covid thought Perry might have learned something about timing. Why not wait until you have some actual news, like Japan approval and out patient payment approval. Be nice to get some announcements that don't involve people exercising options or doing an equity raise. Also be nice to know how much they're raising. Good for you dank. Still believe in the long term, and this will be needed to get there, but we will be in the doghouse for awhile longer. Sheesh.
Agreed Pete. Saw a post by that certain person on Hot Copper, so he's still around and still long. But one gets weary of doing counterpoint to negative posters who don't have any interest in the company to begin with.
Artfully please offer mine also. I had hoped to drive down from Houston to meet him after covid clears, sorry that won't happen. Never really got to know him but think we were kindred spirits.
Jugs, if I don't get to meet you in person it's been a pleasure meeting you here. Life well lived.
My belief is that the major short position in AVH shares on the ASX over the last few months was major holders shorting against the box, protecting their downside while maintaining their long positions. Think the extremely heavy volume in AVH last Friday may have been an unwinding of those shorts. If so, should show up in reported numbers tomorrow. Although one can never really know.
Jugs, since Karst exited early this year there have been no change of substantial holder notices on ASIC. Since most of the shares owned by major holders are AVH shares they would have to comply with ASIC rules which is a 3 day reporting period for any change of 1% of total outstanding shares. Both Blackcrane and Redmile had recently filed 13-F's with SEC showing they each still own around 9%. Not sure about other major holders since 13-F's are harder to track down than 13-G's. Won't likely any new 13-G's in US until early March. Filing requirements in US are a lot looser in US than Australia. There had to be an RS when it redomiciled, one can quibble about the ratio. Long run it doesn't matter. Market cap is ultimately the same.
You are correct Jugs. And it's not much of a change. Just describes the company a little better than what it was.
Jugs, with you on Enterprise, moved some funds into it and some other high yield blue chips earlier this year anticipating my retirement. But still holding quite a few free shares here. It's day will come.
Think we'll have to wait until next year for that. Will likely be some tax loss selling over the next few weeks. Other than timelines being set back several months I don't see what has really changed here. The fact that they did as well as they have this year is a minor miracle.
So when will it hit $1?
Don't believe there are any 70 point touchdowns.