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At a minimum they need to share their plans for commercialization of ProB with shareholders. I had some reasonable suggestions when the contract got cancelled, I'd love to hear theirs. Gonna call them Thursday.
Camarus is Braeburns other partner, with the latest crl. While Invidior already has an approved monthly depot and a seasoned sales staff. Camarus is likely also in the fudge along with Appletree. Likely $300mm plus down the Braeburn rattle so far.
Well they closed this deal sooner and better than most here believed. Since the FDA screwed them on 04-30-13 they have had very limited options. Yes, they are the least transparent mgmt I've ever seen, but they have managed to stay alive against huge odds, no small feat. I could make a much better argument defining Braeburns poor mgmt, Camarus should be worried. I give Titan better odds of surviving than Braeburn. Saddest part is that this is a product that could be changing a lot of lives for the better. No magic elixir, but would really be a boon to that 15-20% of addicts that are ready to be clean.
If all you want is a low ball buyout that's fine. A little competency and REAL revenues will get a much better price.
So take the mil and subsidize the first 1600 implants. Recruit some top pain med salesmen who understand opioid regs and pay them $1000 per implant sold. The physician pays a nominal upfront cost ($500-1000), the balance paid on reimbursement from patient or insurance. That would generate @ $2.5-3mm after costs. Rinse and repeat. Why not?
Mr Sunil etal, how about you drop the price to $3500, recruit top notch salesmen willing to work for expenses and 30% commission and see if you can't get this thing off the launch pad. Think out of the box a little.
Wouldn't disagree, but think one kink might be Appletree pulling the plug on Braeburn. They may actually be in worse shape than Titan. Might be able to work a deal for part of future revenue in that event. It's all a long shot at this point.
Titan is probably in a better position to become a real company than they ever have been. Question is can they hang on until then. A little more info occasionally would be nice. Doesn't appear to be in their DNA.
Yeah, don't think Sunny etal are real anxious to go there. And any equity infusion after BK would essentially be a buy out. Don't see anyone currently associated with this company coming out with much if anything on the other side of BK.
Might be a way out, but current shareholders would get zipideedoodah.
The fact they are doing this now after having gotten in to the loan agreement in the first place says a lot about Titan managements' strategic planning abilities. That said, one wouldn't think they would amend it now unless they do see some light at the end of the tunnel. Let's hope it's not an oncoming train.
Braeburn is probably closer to closing it's doors than Titan at the moment. Say what you will, Invidior is way ahead of them when it comes to the ability to make actual sales of their injectable. Yes Braeburn screwed up the roll out, but IMO it made more sense from a competition standpoint for them to reevaluate their plan and push Probuphine to larger institutional users. If congress actually passes something in the $25-45B range, I think Titan will have less of a problem finding a new partner.
No mention of Braeburn's injectable. They are gonna get killed by Invidior. Yet no competition for Probuphine. Hope Titan is fishing for a new partner, their current one is in breach of contract and dumber than a post. Friggin' shame what has happened here, this is a superior product to both the injectables.
One thing makes me feel better, the smart guys at Appletree have done a lot worse here than I have. At least I'm only losing house money at this point.
Braeburn is in for an A kicking from Invidior if that's their plan.
Love to verify that story. It's more than likely bunk, told to scare their patients. I agree that "cold turkey" is the best way to quit, unfortunately it works for very few. Many in the treatment area are in denial of that simple fact. My nephew got clean that way, but his son's mother tried and failed that way repeatedly until she OD'd. Multiple approaches are needed.
Although US military and other overseas personnel would likely be the first population targeted, global market is 2.8 billion people. Give me one percent of that market.
Well, we did know they were good at keeping secrets. They've managed to keep Titan a secret for years. This is good news. Assume if successful eventual payment would be under contract direct with US govmint.
I assume you are referring to the loft on their pitching wedges.
"as we drive commercial efforts for our first approved product and finalize regulatory filings seeking approval of our flagship opportunity, CAM2038."
Sad.
Not going to waste anyone's time defending Titan or Braeburn but the true villain in our story is the FDA. Fixing the REMS and labelling for what they wanted would have taken 6 months tops. And we'd be 3 years ahead of where we are now. The results of the last P3 trial simply proved it wasn't needed.
Surprised he wouldn't have tapped Rush for this with Chris leading the fight against obesity. I'll never understand politics.
I particularly liked the third paragraph from the treatment center website. They get it.
Appreciate all your posts DOC. Think you are Titan's IR department.
The reason I am still hanging on is the same for buying the stock initially. To me the ultimate reason to use Probuphine is the psychological benefit, which was never evaluated in the trials nor has it been touted much by Titan or Braeburn. It is still my belief that once they get enough implants out there, this will be the "word of mouth" issue that will drive this to "gold standard" therapy. The ability to lead a normal life without the daily reminders of one's addiction just seems to me an enormous incentive and benefit to be derived from it's use. And 6 months is much better than 4 weeks. Obviously it has and will take longer than I ever expected, but I still believe it will prove true. But after all the pain endured here I may end up needing a treatment myself.
I agree Doc. Braeburn/Appletree would not have even begun the IPO process at this time without a compelling case (with numbers) to present in it's prospectus(which I have not seen)to possible investors. Think this has more to do with softness in pharma than Braeburn specifically. JMHO.
Thanks Doc. 2018 would be exceptional, hope they get there.
Just to add my thoughts to what EMA1 posted, it's easy to get frustrated with the SP and management. But I always have to back up to what happened in April 2013 to remind myself how we got here. Titan had spent what they could spend at that point and along with virtually everyone who followed the company believed it would be approved. The FDA changed the rules in the middle of the game. I still believe this third trial was unnecessary, and I think the results compared to the prior 2 trials bears that out. The FDA could have delayed the ruling to work out the REMS and labeling issues with virtually no difference in the outcome, other than an approval in late 2013, early 2014. That didn't happen and here we are over 3 1/2 years later.
But I still believe this platform has the potential to improve lives. The biggest benefit wasn't measured by the trials, which is the ability of a recovering addict to feel like a normal human being. To be able to get treatment without being reminded your in treatment every day is a huge psychological benefit. Granted the other benefits, I think this is the one that will ultimately drive Probuphine's succcess, provided Braeburn can get enough sold to start that snowball rolling. Fingers crossed.
I've enjoyed reading this board over the past 3+ years, promise not to clutter it up.
Anyone know where to find an up to date Braeburn contract? Or do you just have to piece it together from posted changes? That thing must look like my Grandmother's will when she died at 90, lots of white out and retype.
Yes Braeburn has pain also, been awhile but I thought the approval for pain came with like a 35-50M milestone. Since the Proneura platform has been approved with Probuphrine, pain should be well, less of a pain to get to approval.
Although I wouldn't necessarily disagree, in fairness there are a lot of biotechs down 30-40% over the past couple months, it's not just Titan.
TRUTH, everybody loves a dreamer. It's good to have a dream.
Titan addresses issues on conference calls? Who knew.
Well I loaded up on pharma's in 1993 the last time an election had a big effect on pharma prices and did real well over the next 3-4 years. Ultimately I don't think Titan is tethered to that either way, but it is likely part of the current problem with share price. But who really knows with this stock.
Look, since they initially filed for the up to $50mm in stock I've thought that was a better way to raise capital and doing it with Cantor is a positive. I read the prospectus and didn't see any "minimum" price mentioned, the 5.62 a share appeared to me to simply be used as an example of what it would equate to at that price. If I missed the "minimum" part I'd be happy to be corrected. There are positive ways to view this, but there are also negative scenarios that can be applied. My point is that just once it would be nice for shareholders to get actual guidance from company management when they do this stuff. It always comes as a surprise in an SEC filing and we are left to conjecture as to what it could really mean. Gets old.
But with supposed good news in the offing, why now? If they expect sales to go well why not wait until 1 or 2 million shares would do the trick instead of 4? And I hate to break the news to these geniuses, if sales aren't good none of it will matter. So once again, why now? It's a rhetorical question since I'm sure no one here knows and we should never expect any kind of rational guidance from management. I've defended some of their behavior in the past, but these guys seem determined to prove they are either clueles or the worst fiduciaries ever, or both.
Both of the one month depots will be targeting patients with higher dosage requirements than Probuphine. But perhaps by then other studies currently in progress will verify what the 2012 Propuphine trial indicated, that continuous dosage at lower levels works as well as daily dosages at higher levels due to blood plasma levels remaining fairly stable.
Also worth noting that Braeburn may have a similar product with Camarus on the market in that same time frame. Also a 1 month depot.
BDSI's Bunavail is a direct competitor tom Suboxone film, so there really isn't a direct comparison to be made with Probuphine.
Best news was on the insurance front, hopefully as complete paper work more implants will get done. But wow, staying awake through Titan's conf calls to catch what little new info they provide is a real challenge. Seriously need to hire an IR person at some point.