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Bought some NFLX, TXT for a trade.. dipped good this AM..
Yeah.. who knows... nothing goes straight up or down :O)
Apparently even the Condo market in Toronto where there was actually speculation is not as bad as feared..
Interesting times..
I gotta tell you M... nothing would please me more market wise than stability and recovery... Then I would feel pretty darn confident living off the proceeds going forward.. :O)
B
ROTF.. I had HOU and HEU... and HXU... sold too soon.. That's fine.. Had a very good day Monday anyway and another up day today.. Infrastructure is moving it seems.. I have CSC and JNJ for a trade here.. JNJ looks like it's breaking for the 200 DMA and I may scoop a quarterly dividend also out of the deal.. CSC is still bubbling... broke above the 200DMA ... looks like it wants to run.. We'll see ... My US ute SO, Southern company is down though... to my surprise actually.. Loonie pop not helping any of these :o( Sold my VNP.TO this AM for a double :O) in the kiddie accounts.. They are a supplier to FSLR..
I have a guy on SI calling for 15$ oil, US collapse.. but somehow they will still control the seas.. Lots of fun stuff in the 'news'...
I'm still thinking we run close to June.. but as you know I can change my mind quickly :O)
B
Sure would have been nice to have held on to those 2X funds :o(
Gold !!!! what the heck is that.. buy the dips and fasten seat belts .. one heck of a bronco...
we're trending, so follow the trend lines.
As a bear that was hard to spot and kept me too wary.. Luckily I set my self to profit from a bull and be relatively safe otherwise.. Yeah I could be making more but I'm up very nicely today anyway for the first day of month :O)
Since I'm expecting the trend to end in June... it won't LOL
Have a good weekend..
B
LOL I made good coin but left half again on the table so far.. My infrastructure stuff though is running so I'm not being left behind.. but yeah.. Probably half of the monthly target we were talking about... Worse I stopped out of HXU for a small loss yesterday before the downdraft... so that stings too.... :o(
I was convinced we run into the summer... buy the dips.. I need to start listening to myself more often ..
I was a little down this AM you might say before my other stuff kicked in..
BTW I contemplated shorting gold stocks via HGD last night.. but the Swine flu hitting Hong Kong now makes me chicken.. besides they can go either way it looks to me still ... but my bias is down...
And now I have some real world stuff to do..
I cleared out of HOU and HEU this AM. Ended up working out pretty well. Getting exchange reamed though on some US stuff.. Some selling into Wednesday's close would have netted me a cool grand CDN (from US sales) extra on a scalp... sigh...
Naw she's still around.. http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25561464
john,
Today lots of dipping should have been expected between so many going ex divi today and swine flu .. FWIW..
B
Now Shes Blonde :O)
But before the real crash and real deflation gets here ...
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/creditbubblebulletin?art_id=10218
Started a position in SO (Southern Company) US utility. >5% yield
Started a position in ATP.UN (US power Gen some coal mostly NG) Canadian IDS (SB no 2011 issues) >12.5% yield
Sold TBT... nice pop this AM.. tired of riding it up and down... Actually made money...
Hi Eva,
Presently I own mostly yielders '*' means 2011 trust conversion issue to watch for:
holdings:
CONNACHER OIL AND 4.75%30JUN12 (CLL.DB.A) (debenture my eff yield > 13%) note this is a bet that CLL survives... more than just an oil bet.. and paid well to wait..
ARMTEC INFRASTRUCTURE INC FD T (ARF.UN) *
CML HEALTHCARE INC FD TR UNITS (CLC.UN) *
DAYLIGHT RES TR TRUST UTS (DAY.UN) *
BONAVISTA ENERGY TR TRUST UNIT (BNP.UN) *
MEDICAL FACILITIES CORP INC PA (DR.UN) *
GENIVAR INC FD TR UNITS (GNV.UN) *
HOME EQTY INC TR UNITS (HEQ.UN) Conversion plan announced. Converting to a bank with lower yield.
DDJ HIGH YIELD FD (HYB.UN) Good yield no conversion
K-BRO LINEN INC FD TR UTS (KBL.UN) *
KILLAM PROPERTIES (KMP) Good yield no conversion
MORNEAU SOBECO INC FD UNITS (MSI.UN) *
NEW FLYER INDS & NEW FLYER IND (NFI.UN) Good yield no conversion
NORTHSTAR HEALTHCARE (NHC) (imploded lottery ticket)
NORTHLAND POWER INC FD TR UTS (NPI.UN) * Has Green energy
NORTHERN PROPERTY REAL EST INV (NPR.UN) REIT
PEMBINA PIPELINE INC FD TR UNI (PIF.UN) *
PARKLAND INC FD TR UNIT (PKI.UN) *
STUDENT TRANSN AMER LTD (STB) Good yield no conversion
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20 (TBT)
SENTRY SELECT DIVERS INC FD TR (SDT.UN) *
CHINA NATURAL GAS (CHNG)
5N PLUS INC (VNP)
TRANSCAN PL (TRP) Good yield no conversion
FORTIS INC (FTS) Good yield no conversion
BORALEX POWER INC FD TR UNITS (BPT.UN) * Funny trading and thin. Green energy.
CASH 50%
If the environment does not change I'm wondering in some of these cases that 2011 is already largely priced in... Decisions Decisions ..
I have a couple on watch that I'm waiting to come off a bit which have no 2011 issues.. I may trade in some trusts I own for them .. as I want to maintain high cash since I'm obviously no clearer than anyone on the future..
I am watching CPG.UN since they have already come out with their 2011 plan.
Staying light on energy. Everything is fluid and trying not let any one position get too big.. I have had one big blowup
NHC and one minor blowup which I expect to turn out OK HEQ.UN.
These are basically all tax sheltered (RRSP/RESP).. Everything is fluid though and can change.. Capital preservation first.. Trading has been a real bitch... so I tend to take small scalps when they arrive.. up is down, down is up.. inflation/deflation.. I will not go all in and lean to cutting out fast.. the future is too fuzzy..
Good Luck
We could all use some these days..
Kastel
You can check out analyst comments here: http://www.stockchase.com/Company-sl--slq-ranges-slv-a-sla-rangee-slv-d.php
BTW marks,
few months
Considering demographics ie boomers losing their taste for risk
amount of debt (money) to be deflated ...
I'm thinking longer than that with rallies when folks feel better ...
So besides cash I'm wondering what works in that environment, a few years while we wait for the BRIC (well not really counting on Russia LOL) to stimulate growth and bail us out with some better money making opportunities..
I have lots of yield but only minor energy trust positions..
Need to figure out what to do with some of my business trusts due to 2011 tax changes..
Any ideas on where to put your dough during deflation that works better than cash.. but capital preservation is JOB ONE
Anyone else feel free to answer..
kastel@WidowsAndOrphanStocksAreUs
So I guess you saw the Hosington piece also on Booms Busts ?
Sometimes you need to believe your eyes..
I've been leaning that way for a while ...
I hear everything you say.. I have a few liabilities to take of in the next few years .. maybe two.. Then I plan to do similar.. The collapse derailed me a bit.. I needed a bit more..
C'est la vie..
I'm planning on a part time 'meet the people' kind of job to cover basic expenses.. but I need a certain amount of income from my stash via yield.. It's getting there.. If I could count on deflation :O)
Real estate has not come down to bargain levels here in Ontario .. not yet anyway..
Zone 11.. I ripped out my front lawn and put in all garden I guess 3 years ago.... Not much on lawns.. Mostly perennials... I put in a little patch of putting green to match my neighbour ... about 10 by 30 along the road :O)
My wife has relatives on the island.. Nanaimo end.. Her brother left Vancouver because it was too busy.. Has a gardening franchise.. rents a farmhouse.. I'm jealous.. Her uncle is less happy... He had 49 acres up in Desboro off Georgian Bay.. now a residential lot near Nanaimo.. but his kids live on the mainland.. which is why he left Ontario... He loved his garden...
So far our plans are to haul the camping trailer out that way this summer :O)
There's so many other things I'd rather do then living in this shithole city spending all my time in my fucking office cursing at a fucking computer screen eight fucking hours per day That's why I'm looking for something OUT of computers..
B
Pulling my hair out today...
late day swoon (400 ish) or late day rally up to -200ish LOL
gheeshh!!
OK well the stocks like to lead more often.. not a hard rule IMO..
Bought some widows and orphans stocks today FTS.TO and TRP.TO
Now a disconcerting clue for me today... see the late cratering in the TSX ..
EDIT: Seems to take almost 15 minutes these days to get the close settled.. The number was 77 when I made the chart.. and that big closing stick appeared when I posted on iHub.. still a big drop... wacky stuff..
Ya gotta pay the bills :O)
Yes I see it's popped nicely since you posted.. :O)
I never went short with HGD.. almost but I expected a bounce..
no buying today for me yet..
Looking at another yielder Fortis FTS.. beaten down but good reports.. the cash in my kids accounts is getting moldy so 4.5 with cap gains potential may be the ticket..
All my thoughts are predicated though on what happens near (before) next earnings season..
B
One more BTW on NG.. I've started my list now in case my timing is off on NG prices :O) which is also why I'm also unsure of shorting NG...
BTW Frank,
the two trusts I bought may be just for a punt..
The Debentures I own are bet on the the survivability of CLL.TO.. so POO fluctuations are less important than where it will be in as year.. so doubtful I'll punt that..
The juniors in NG I'm starting to build a list of I do not anticipate starting to buy before mid summer.. Unless we get a freakishly hot summer (and even that's a stretch) NG should continue to head down I think.. so better prices are on the horizon for good gassers.. again IMHO..
so actually shorting NG for the next few months may be a better play.. The HND on our side of the border though looks very illiquid.. so I may need to look for a US ETF.. Not sure on doing that yet..
The gassers are an investor plan remember.. for what I like to do best.. find a theme/trend.. and play it.. I'm just trying to get on a little earlier this time.. Not going up right away is fine ... it's just going down that is bad.. and as you know we do not need to bet the farm to make lots of dough when these things work out,,,
No inflation up here again..
B
Oh I see ...
Junior's first ? That's first in regard to HNU which is a double long and they have issues with the futures used to given them the 2xooooomph which degrades their performance over the longer term.. an unleveraged fund would be fine.. I like the 2X for short term trading.. Volatility hurts their performance..
I'd be looking of course at things like Encana and TLM before buying juniors.. I kinda like TLM for their shale plays they got into before NG crashed..
Also I'd basket my juniors... I do not think I'd have the stomach to go hard at just a few juniors like I did with the fertiliser stocks..
B
Not my friends LOL.. bt if you give BNN a listen every tom dick and harry almost says ... you should have a little gold .. or we like gold... or inflation .. good for gold..
My nagging question is with what we have seen gold should have hit >2K ?? unless we have big deflation still.. just feeling along the wall in the dark here.. looking for the light..
re: HAU.TO likely DBA might be better .. more liquid.. HAU is pretty thin.. HNU.. I'd look at after picking up some juniors ? Too early for a significant rally I think.. but that's my bias right now..
Your chart kinda goes along with my thinking here.. that stocks are OK for a while. even energy.. because oil is not near high enough to impact economy..
B
.. took me a second.. LOL..
naw I'm not shorting here.. I want to see how it handles the 50 DMA area.. I'm non committal here.. so you need to recoup some points here before I'm gonna even consider it seriously.. just a possibility for now..
Everyone seems to be on the gold up on inflation trade.. All the 'value' guys even.. seems crowded right now..
You know how many star athletes are apparently in financial trouble now.. Apparently tons.. Man one of those annual salaries.. and guys like us would never have a financial care in the world LOL
OK I'm looking at the big gold stocks here.. and XGD.. They look like they are trying to turn up.. but I'm looking at the 50DMA area.. if they stall there maybe time to go short.. which fits my next little while view.. but I can change my mind quickly... I'm very twitchy :O)
K
I'm not comfortable worrying only about tomorrow :O) Seems to take more energy out of me.. and I stress about it more.. A couple of months is my preferred time frame.. or better longer if we ever get back to some normalcy .. the way I'm approaching NG.. Maybe I'm gonna feel like ole Slider back in the days he was pounding the table on gold and everybody laughed :O)
Frank,
I was thinking rear view will be interesting this summer... Even more so now it looks like we may be OK until next US earnings season ? Is this gonna be a another go cash and short in June scenario generally ?
Good for gold then ?
Just thinking out loud here..
K
Jamie Dimon says not going to participate in the PPIP program for toxic assets tot eh public.. We learned our lesson with our TARP program Scarlett Letter...
holdings.. posting back on my old home again..
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37062133
holdings:
CONNACHER OIL AND 4.75%30JUN12 (CLL.DB.A) (my eff yield > 13%)
ARMTEC INFRASTRUCTURE INC FD T (ARF.UN)
CML HEALTHCARE INC FD TR UNITS (CLC.UN)
DAYLIGHT RES TR TRUST UTS (DAY.UN)
BONAVISTA ENERGY TR TRUST UNIT (BNP.UN)
MEDICAL FACILITIES CORP INC PA (DR.UN)
GENIVAR INC FD TR UNITS (GNV.UN)
HOME EQTY INC TR UNITS (HEQ.UN)
DDJ HIGH YIELD FD (HYB.UN)
K-BRO LINEN INC FD TR UTS (KBL.UN)
KILLAM PROPERTIES (KMP)
MORNEAU SOBECO INC FD UNITS (MSI.UN)
NEW FLYER INDS & NEW FLYER IND (NFI.UN)
NORTHSTAR HEALTHCARE (NHC) (imploded lottery ticket)
NORTHLAND POWER INC FD TR UTS (NPI.UN)
NORTHERN PROPERTY REAL EST INV (NPR.UN)
PEMBINA PIPELINE INC FD TR UNI (PIF.UN)
PARKLAND INC FD TR UNIT (PKI.UN)
STUDENT TRANSN AMER LTD (STB)
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20 (TBT)
SENTRY SELECT DIVERS INC FD TR (SDT.UN)
CHINA NATURAL GAS (CHNG)
5N PLUS INC (VNP)
CASH > 50%
So you are prepared for a Black Swan as long as gold holds steady .. Gold ETF investment for last quarter..
http://www.etfexpress.com/articles/detail.jsp?content_id=324631
Gold is touted by the bugs as grossly undervalued... SB well over 2K in inflation adjusted dollars.. If the last meltdown and oil @ 150 didn't do it... I gotta wonder... what is holding it back ? I'm still thinking about all those broken balance sheets... right down to the most important ones... The households..
Today:
US CPI was negative
97 billion OUTFLOWS of foreign dollars from US.. expected small INFLOW ...
Dollar negative I guess.. The world votes... I thought gold should have popped on that..
Industrial production down more than expected.. I believe they said capacity utilisation at record lows.. since recording began..
We know consumer spending is down. That's a lot of deflationary pressure..
B
Looks like the TSX has done it again.. late rally... not sure if it closed green yet...
Now you are thinking opportunity cost..
My favourite junior energy analyst was on BNN today :O)
How timely.. She always stresses companies with debt under control :O) Some of what I'm looking at was mentioned..
DAY.UN and BNP may at least be good for a couple of day scalp and [possibly a distribution..
My gut is not that reliable :O)
BUT... There is the big crazy hyperinflation camp and the big super deflation camp.. right now looks like we are caught in the middle.. again.. The last gold rally was fear... IMO..
Now folks are dull to the news.. Personally if the tug of war goes on we can muddle through.. no thanks to those in charge..
You know I have a whack of cash but I'm afraid to deploy that on any meaningful bet because of the whiplashes you've mentioned and I've experienced... with even a more modest amount allocated..
I think we get better clues in a few months.. but gold is on my watch list..
I've become a conservative investor... Have not scalped any Horizon funds this week.. since I cannot watch constantly...
Bought some BNP.UN this AM also I see..