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Fabius, have faith. we will soon find out. If as I suspect Boyd or UBS buys the next offering then we know. the price is currently being manipulated down so they can buy up the company cheap.
Someone like Boyd wont sink 13 million into this if he felt it was bad. I still feel the technology is good. its just we have a bad CEO making poor decisions. once we get a new sheriff in town I think we see it turn around.
weezhul, again you make unsubstantiated claims. no one can say at this time if they will pass the oral abuse labeling standard. IPCI claimed they do. Naturally, I can not comment too much on what they prior claimed but they did claim they are oral abuse deterrent. Your slim reference to Odidi's claim that it can be chewed like bubblegum as a reason for not passing is immaterial. It does not matter if it is chew-able or not to be oral abuse deterrent, it comes down to the amount of opoid that is extracted. which none of us will know until they conclude all the studies will we?
The difference is, Odidi can be replaced, we still have promise in a nice pipeline. EGLT does not have much else going for it.
Angelo, That's a great idea. however, I only found one thing wrong with it. we know there has been no cash infusion because as of the latest SEC report and the updated resale of the warrants, they still claim to only have 200k in cash? unless they just copied and pasted and failed to update that figure. so it still appears they spent no money over the last month.
Other than that, assuming they made another mistake LOL and they did get an infusion of cash, you may be right. That 11 million was was classified as Cost recovery. that is pretty much wide open. we know they bought machines early last year. I am not sure cost recovery is the same as performance payments but since we do not have access to the documents it is a possibility.
I for one, am surprised they have not made another offering by now. Its immaterial whether they do it before or after any RS as a RS is revenue neutral.
In other words issuing 10 million shares now at 32 cents would have exactly the same outcome at say a 10 to 1 RS. As long as it is a direct offering and someone grabs them, it does not place any downward pressure on the stock price and we still end up with the same in the end. 6 million shares.
so issue 10 million now and end up with 6 million shares or wait for the RS we stand at 5 million shares, in order to generate the same amount money they would have to issue 1 million new shares at $3.20.
I guess after spending 3.5 million a quarter on average I find it strange they are able to get away with only 200k since the middle of July. I would have thought we would have seen one by now.
wim, agreed. Its a non issue
Doog, you do know that they have said the same thing for 3 years now. each time the deadline comes and goes and they just extend it.
"even", clearly you need to expand on your thought process here because anyone anyone who knows the company can see how easily things can be turned around with a change in the way management has been handling things.
a deal for Regabatin being inked, a deal for Rexista, selling off the generics. Any of those 3 alone would immediately pop the share price and would bring in millions of dollars.
even small changes such as cost cutting measures would help turn the company around. The company has huge potential that has thus far been untapped.
Wim, Yes, I believe it comes before the shareholders meeting. It makes sense to fully dilute. get to say 60 million shares then RS and go back to 6 million on a 10 to 1 RS. Then allow the major shareholder to start calling the shots to effect changes that actually start moving the pipeline.
Weezhul, clearly you just pick and chose what you want to believe to push your agenda. The Company stated they were exploring partners and offers. The fact they did not accept any you use as proof they didn't have any? there is a big difference of not accepting a deal and never having one.
Weez, you ask for the evidence to back up my statements yet you then do the exact thing. You make a statement saying no one is interested in Rexista or Regabatin. why do you make that statement? merely because no partnership has been signed yet? the company even stated they were exploring interested partners.
As to my proof, its simple. The warrants are now classified s shares and they increased the outstanding shares. that places them on the books which means shareholder equity. Just go back and read the PR associated with the with resale.
Doog, I have to respectfully disagree with your outlook here;
Fabius. There you have it. I have been saying all along the shorts have been doing this on purpose. our market cap is lower than others which stand around 50 million and no pipeline!
Wim, I agree. I see it being closer to 25% but I see an offer for being around 10 million shares plus warrants. which means there will be a new sheriff in town.
Fabius, well I think the results that were submitted to adcomm show the IV resistance worked. The other test results the company did share showed Rexista was the only drug that was going to be able to taken with or without food which makes it better than the others. Slong as the phase 2 and 3 studies show the same results for oral and Nasal, I feel the drug will be approved. I really do believe in the technology which is why I stayed invested. likewise they do have 4 approved drugs which shows their other technology works.
So, if the technology is working but the management has been the detractor. That now will go away with the next dilution. he will need to dilute a minimum of 25% just to get another 3 to 4 million to keep the doors open. at which point, USB has 16% I believe, Armistice has 19%. Either one could potentially buy the next offering which honestly would be in their best interest.
So by changing the management, someone could force Odidi to take these offers he is no doubt turning away feeling they are inferior. honestly, if the big boys double down why wouldn't or shouldn't we? It is probably our only chance to negate the dilution we have suffered up to this point.
lets face it, while he has been a problem not getting deals done, the share price has still also been manipulated down. its the combination of the two which killed us. Which means IPCI is actually undervalued. even competitors which have no pipeline and no approvals are selling at a higher market cap.
so yes at least for me, its reason to take advantage at these levels. everyone has said for sometime he needs to get back into the lab and let someone else run things. well, that time is fast approaching. so what would be the problem is people get what they wanted?
the only other option is he inks a deal to stave off another dilution to maintain control. at which point, while he would still remain a deal at this point we still win!
Wimike, Yes, the majority times a stock will go down after a RS but look at the reasons why? they do a RS for a purpose. usually to consolidate shares or to meet requirements like IPCI is doing. However, the key then is what lies on the other end?
we now look forward to a majority share holder. The studies are supposed to be done on October time frame. I once heard someone say they intend to partner Rexista once top line studies are completed. with new major shareholder at the helm I think we see deals no longer being turned away.
Even the release of positive Rexista studies would help share price. So while we could go down some it also wont be at the same levels. now we dropped from 45 cents to 33 cents in a week. the shorts would have to drop the SP down from $4.50 to $3.30 to get the same ratio. how hard will that be? if we do a RS of 10 to 1 and get $3.30 I would be surprised if they can drop the share price down past $3.
I may be wrong, but looking at what the pipeline has going for it, if we have a change in management style think about the potential. we may be in that 10% ! I still believe in the technology.
Doog, no worries there. Trust me. LOL. there are benefits to being a bus driver.
doog, one has to do what is best for their own situation. However, I have to disagree with you here on this statement;
Tilator, that's my logic. I was just using that selling the generics as example of how this can turn around on a dime. The problem has always been the leadership. That now will change if he dilutes. If he does not abd makes a deal we still benefit. Either way a win. So I only see two choices. Hold or sell. I do not see much reason to sell unless you know that you have a sure thing to recover your loss. So im holding. Then once you decide to hokd if you believe in a recovery then ask yourself is it worth diubling down like the big boys? If you expect it to go just back to only 1 dollar any money you put in now is a 200% plus profit that can help offset other loss.
Wim, Exactly. That is why I am more optimistic now that I have been for a while. Think about it. what has our problem been ? NOT the drugs, but the man running the show. With one more dilution he needs to sell off 25% of the company to get maybe 5 million dollars. Assuming Boyd gets that, it gives him access to 45% of the company! That is more than enough to force changes.
So what are our choices? hold or sell? for me why sell now at all time lows. I can hold because worse case scenario things can change around rather quickly.
They way I see it, if he dilutes for 5 million we are good for almost year end. Boyd could come in and immediately start changes. 1st thing sell off generics for say 15 million. they could get more but if you want to move them sell them all for cheap. That gives enough cash through next year.
Next step as soon as Rexista studies are done, partner it. that could be by October and would probably come with up front payment because it is almost done. even a mere 10 million gets us through 2019 now along with sale of generics.
Next Partner Regabatin with no upfront payment but milestones. the first tests would take a while but I am sure would be done by the end of 2019. then you get the milestone payments.
by this time Rexista is approved in 2018 and should be on market by year end.
Nothing stops a plan from this from happening except one person! with a change that is about to come, that person no longer stands in the way. The drugs are still good. the biggest obstacle to our success is about to be removed. so I for one am not displeased. so after the all the hurt that he has put us longs through our only choice is to cost avg down at these historic lows. or just hold and then wait for share price recovery. I guess you could sell and take the loss but for as far down as we are you better have a great investment to get it back. I still see this recovering to quickly that even getting back up to $1 pre split price isn't bad if you cost avg down now! thats how I look at it.
Tilator, I absolutely agree! I feel any new sheriff in town will cut those costs first!
Trend, exactly. I actually do not see that as a bad thing. Lets face it, Regabatin, Rexista, Podras alone is a great start. They could sell of the generics get enough cash to get them through next year and Rexista approval. Say 15 million for all the generics. Then start licensing out Podras and then they can start working on the so called other 20 NDA's !
The one thing that has been holding back the company has never been the technology. I for one have been here since 2012 because of the technology. NOT because of Odidi. The only reason I am STILL here is because of him and his unwillingness to ink deals.
The only downside I see here, is if a new player comes in and takes the next 25% and then we have no clear winner. But I am betting Boyd won't let his investment go south.
I'm ready!
Doog, I hear you. I feel the same pain. but as you pointed out you have no faith in Odidi's ability to bring things to market. assuming he does do another offering as we all expect and he loses control it wont be him in control will it?
Trend, I wish I had an extra 100k myself. LOL. my point is if the big boys are still buying there is a reason. If Odidi loses control is it a bad thing?
what is better, him out or in?
doog, does it really matter if they dilute before or after the RS ? I do not think so.
Honestly, this is the time to be buying. cost avg down. If someone like Byds buys these shares things will turn around. The only thing that will help us early longs is getting our cost avg down. He will turn things around. However, the potential would still be limited to say 100 million market cap. for a while but even going to 80 million shares or 8 million after a RS of 10 to 1, we still could see $1.25 to $1.50 pre split price.
so better take advantage of the rice at 35 cents.
Wim, actually thats a great idea. They should bypass wainwright. as for possibly needing them in the future, why would they? if they sell to Aristace, he would own 45%. he would turn things around and they probably would never need to do another offering.
I say now is the time to be buying.
wimike, but didnt wainright just issue an upgrade recently to $2.70? and you wonder why I complain about the manipulation.
wimike, actually that is our problem. We actually do have a lot going for us! Regabatin is worth a great deal even if it has no upfront payment, I am sure milestone payments would easily be worth 30 to 50 million. Rexista, is worth a bit as well. we are at the end so probably a 10 million upfront with more upon approval. then royalties to boot. Podras if proved could be licensed for tens of millions to multiple companies to be added as a Supplement.
The problem is this all requires Odidi to make a deal. My only thought is Boyd has just invested millions at this point. what is he thinking? he hasn't given up. Odidi just needs to make some deals.
wimike, sorry but I can't discuss that openly at this point.
Fabius, The only redeeming factor is after this next dilution he will no longer be in the drivers seat. at this rate if he has no news to support the price he will need to dilute 25% just to get another 5 million. If Boyd or even UBS gets that, he will be having a meeting in short period saying "now if you want our vote next year here is what you are going to do"
Wimike, Its what I expected after they reclassified the warrants as actual shares. it now gave the holders the right to shirt against them without actually paying for them! unlike a warrant where you can always eventually cash in you still had to have the actual shares to cover or else it was naked shorting. This just gave out extra shares that could now be shorted. They probably dangled the carrot in front of him saying if you do this you meet the shareholder equity requirement and he took it. never thinking about how they could use them against him to drive the price down to force a bigger dilution.
fabius, true its all relative. Its just normally we still were trading 2 and 3,000 share blocks.20k at once is a larger block. BUT I agree in the scheme of things its relative low cost.
20k shares at the ask at 33 cents. Clearly someone wants to create a wall after dragging it down.
Simco, LOL well if you have about 5 million dollars you can buy about 25% of the company in the next few weeks.
Angelo, I agree with your comments. I was merely pointing out that if they really needed cash to get through the next year, by inking a deal for both even without upfront payments, they could be achieved with a RS and then a minimal dilution.
It was only an example. I too would rather not see the RS and just make due, but my thinking is, they won't trust if we sit at $3 a share and then they sell an offering that were not sold back down below $1. So my gut tells me they RS and then hence the example I laid out.
Wimike, I agree. Regabatin should have been partnered two years ago. I also agree now with Pfizer putting out their own ER, IPCI will get sued for patent infringement. If nothing else just to stall launch by 30 months just like Purdue has done. I agree, this has substantially reduced its value that and combined with Generics coming on market in December.
However, this just means they probably wont get an upfront payment, it does not mean it has no value. so it can be partnered. The question is does Odidi see that his stalling on it has reduced its value and be willing to sign a reduced contract?
My fear is he probably still thinks it is worth what it was before and then botches the deal which is probably why we now sit with only 200k in cash and at 35 cents.
Tilator, Thy do not need 35 million cap to maintain compliance. as an alternative to that requirement they can show 2.5 million in shareholder equity. hence the recent resale and reclassification of the warrants to actual shares. That now is 5 million in equity!
Fabius, I think That is where we need to focus our attention. As doog pointed out in the post immediately prior, we all know what the history and how we got to this point. Between his management AND the games being played we are where we are. The question is where can we possibly go ?
Honestly, I do not see delisting as an issue at this point. The recent reclassification of the warrants as now shares exercise-able at the strike prices allowed Odidi to carry those shares are shareholder equity and which is why they are now counted in the float. Equity that he can just not throw away paying the high salaries. at least not until he does something to get share price to the strike prices.
So that coupled with an RS allows us to maintain compliance. so taking that off the table where do we sit or what is in the future?
It still does not ease the cash flow issue. So I see 3 options;
option 1, he inks a deal even without up front payment. signing a deal for both Regabatin and Rexista could pop the share price to the $3 range assuming he tells us the value is worth say 50 million each in future milestone payments. A 10 to 1 RS would then put us at $30 a shares with 5 million outstanding shares. He could then sell only 500k shares at get 15 million dollars! which would only amount to 10% of the company.
Option 2, he dilutes either before or even after the RS. with no news we sit at 35 cents. a RS of 10 to 1 gets us only to $3.50. He would need to then sell, 1.5 million shares or 25% of the company just to get 5 million dollars and keep the doors open another quarter.
If he takes option 2, he will lose control of the company and be forced out. Is that really a bad thing???? I could see us recovering from that just taking longer.
option 3 of course would be ink a deal with upfront monies. that would stave off further dilution for a time. are there any out there however? Possibly maybe with good HAP studies for Rexista however we dont expect those studies to be complete until September or October. so that wont help the immediate need for cash which is why I feel it will be option 1 or 2.
what do others think? I feel we do have to look for what the worse case is at this point and plan for it and right now Options 1 or 2 are what I perceive as our worst cases.
Angelo, I by no means am a securities lawyer LOL Just trying to make sense out of something I never came across before.
I must admit someone made a good point. there is a foot note for the .455 cent price and the total amount. it does state its for comparative purpose only. I then re-read the entire thing for the umpteenth time and noticed the table on age 20 reduces the overall holdings of all the holders by the exact number of warrants.
so, my new conclusion is the holders of warrants gave back the warrants to the company. (this explains the reduction in holdings on page 20) The company then converts the warrants to actual shares or they are now registered where as before they were unregistered shares. This explains why they are being "held in account for the shareholders" or the owners of the original warrants. Then upon the stock price hitting the target set original strike price instead of the shareholders getting a warrant they actually get to buy an actual share. This explains why the float has now increased by the number of warrants because they are no longer considered a warrant but are now representative of an actual share. The company of course sees no money from this until the strike price is held and the shares actually turned over to the holders.
This then because the warrants now represent actual shares instead of a warrant which is just an option, now shows stock holder equity. so that along with a RS can meet compliance for NASDAQ.
so, that is now my revised "opinion". this was a new one to me to folks. trying the best I can here. But Wim or Bluelucky pointed it there was a foot note to that 455 cent price which did change things in my mind.
Tilator, you are close. (in my personal opinion lol) this was classified a resale because it was renegotiating 6.8 million warrants that were already issued.
If you recall Boyd bought back in October Shares for $1.10 and exercise able warrants at a strike price of $1.25. Then back in March they bought more shares with warrants of a strike price at 60 cents and 75 cents etc. Those warrants amounted to these 6.8 million we are discussing today.
Now understand what a warrant is, its an option to buy at the strike price not a "you must buy". therefore the warrants are not part of the float until such time they are converted.
what today did was re sell or renegotiated those warrants. The holders now agree to convert the warrants at the strike prices that was originally set, HOWEVER instead of paying the strike price they will now only pay 455 cent per share converted.
so while the company was going to get money at 60 cents, 75 cents 1.10, 125 and $1.35. They now only will receive 455 cents per warrant but only when the original strike price is met.
This "promise" to buy now means the warrants must be counted as actual shares and part of the float and this then meets the companies need for compliance of share holder equity. It does not however get the company immediate cash.
Basically look at it as if you rolled back the original offers and instead of buying shares at $1.10 and then warrants at $1.10, they now can buy those same warrants for only 45 cents when the share price hits that $1.10.
does that make sense? well, I should ask do you understand, the concept is crazy in my mind. the company just gave away extra equity. If they can get the share price up to that strike price, which they must in order to get the funds anyway, who wouldn't have paid the original warrant price? But we all know Odidi is no longer in the drivers seat. The man with the deep pockets calls the shots.
feel free to disagree this is just my opinion on how this works.