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HB's reaction had no material impact. I don't know what he knew, but I don't think he could have let the rest of us down easy. Any announcement by the company would have resulted in a rush for the door, with the expected consequence for the pps.
My best guess is that he simply didn't believe the level of SAEs, especially since the feedback he got from the best specialists was good, and the extremes were from disreputable "community" doctors (who were probably feeding info to Favus). Note that the FDA attributed ALL problems to Pona to justify their drastic action.
I think both of your points should be taken to heart. Especially point two. Finding the right therapeutic window with a new drug is tough science, and it's not a crime or a conspiracy when they miss, it's part of the process.
As I've said in the past, Dr.Berger did not make that determination all by himself (lots of input from Ariad's medical experts, and I'm sure some of the best minds in the field had their input).
A great deal of the subsequent damage was caused by an overreaction of the FDA, with dire consequences not just for investors, but patients, who were (and still are) denied the best drug.
Anyway, this is all history, but I do find the constant assault on Dr.Berger to be very distasteful. Unfortunately, it's become the standard wisdom on this board.
How "quick" should it be? Are you willing to wait till briga is approved? Do you think that might have an effect on the selling price?
I'm absolutely astonished at how many people have been persuaded that selling NOW, NOW, is the best thing. Don't you think this panic will play into the hands of someone who wants to get Ariad for much less than it's worth?
Let's NOT follow in captain Ahab's wake, you know well that worked out.
BTW, I think Denner is in charge, and he will do what's right for himself, and coincidentally, for us.
BTW 2: All of 2da's "allegations" are vague, rather empty (like, how do you "prove" that CEO compensation was too high, that would get 90 percent of all CEO's in trouble).
2da has been advising/harassing Ariad for years, and the fact that they ignored him (nobody likes a back seat driver) is probably entirely reasonable. I'm not aware that he has any qualifications to be taken seriously by the pros at Ariad.
I suspect that the hundreds of patients who were brought back from death's doorstep might beg to differ.
BTW, I do think you are one of the most sensible posters on this board, but I think that the vicious non-stop attacks on Dr.Berger by a few posters here has had its effect.
Keep in mind that Dr.Berger ran this ship for decades, putting in a lot more than a few thousand bucks. No bright, ambitious, scientist entrepreneur will live up to 2da's fanciful standards. Whatever value the company has (financial and as a source of ameliorating human misery) was achieved under his leadership.
The rewards sought by the likes of HB include a lot more than making a few million dollars.
If one looks at 2da's posts (for months now), it leads one to believe that he's softening up the longs for a quick, premature sale.
There's been no significant development in the last two years that he did not condemn.
HB resigned, not good enough, bunch of BoD's resign,still not good enough, a steady stream of good news from the lab and clinical front, yeh but Ariad is going bankrupt, the new administration reduces staff and gets 140 million buck, and 2da continues with the "we're in a sudden death mode" (whatever the hell that means).
And last but not least, a constant stream of dark and baneful events about to unfold, which is being engineered by none other than: 2da!!!
BTW, does anybody find it odd that he's so secretive, after all Denner knows, the SEC knows, the BoD knows, EVERYBODY knows of these earth-shattering events about to unfold, so why the hell is he not telling us about it????????
I simply cannot take any of this seriously! I would especially suggest to ariafan, and others who are worried, that they should read the decent, common-sense posts of folks like flex, kenyon, vid, and others, who do the only thing that makes sense:
Look at the science, the clinic, the recognition that pona is unique in its efficacy (and is very likely to move up the food chain), that briga is BIC, and rapidly approaching approval, etc..
So 2da is pushing for IMMEDIATE SELL, SELL, SELL, before (!!!) the next meeting, and continues an incessant and ferocious assault on the company. It's kind of hard to see any internal logic here.
These dark murmurings of the fate about to befell the leadership of the company we're invested in have been coming for quite a while.
If I took it seriously, I would feel like being on a plane, at 35K feet, with one of my fellow passengers taking pot shots at the flying crew, while grinning malevolently as he promises to get'em the next time.
There seems to be a massive confusion about why one invests! Ariad's (and our) future will be determined by their success in saving lives. Everything else is noise.