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Going back down but how far.
If NASDAQ continues to go up through a lot of tomorrow, maybe there will be a drop towards the end of the day as traders don't maybe want to be in during a three day weekend.
I agree about the likely upcoming market disruptive return of COVID in the US, it could be darn disruptive, particularly since the Fed won't be giving massive hand-outs; it even could peak around election time (mail-in ballots start in October I believe.)
Even if the US government wanted to do another big Covid package, how can they if they can't borrow most of the money from the Fed.
Fortunately it was a paper trade LD.
A lot being announced starting tomorrow, and will there be a sell-off on Thursday because of the three day weekend?
What concerns me about earning reports is that inflation might inflate the earnings numbers so even though their income isn't as good for the quarter compared to others, the quarterly amount could be inflated and look better than expected.
On the other hand this article expects bank earning to fall - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-earnings-expected-to-decline-despite-profitability-boost-from-fed-rate-hikes-105817079.html
You were right MM!
Looks like $31 and change was the bottom once again.
Great work Agoura Guy!
I'd like to think that if the Fed saw this war coming they would have started the Taper sooner but maybe not. It seems to me that it's a bad time for a major central bank (ours) to be so bloated with debt, that likely means unwinding of the debt is going to move at a brisk pace, but what do I know.
I hope SQQQ keeps going up, my average is higher than yours.
That $31.24 is looking good at the moment Agoura Guy, congratulations.
Incase anyone interested and haven't seen this article: "Fed says bond maturity runoff will be main tool for shrinking balance sheet | Reuters"
https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-says-bond-maturity-runoff-will-be-main-tool-shrinking-balance-sheet-2022-01-26/
NASDAQ composite today got higher, 14,567.60 (so far temporarily) than the three peaks in February since it started so high in January and then Powell dropped the hammer and the stock markets dropped.
The next peak is January 14th at 14,897.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/history?p=%5EIXIC
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.IXIC
Another reason markets are going up: "“Do you want to invest in bonds when you know that the Fed is raising rates or do you want to invest in equities where you can get some type of dividend return, you can get real earnings growth and it’s gonna give you a comfortable return in your portfolios?” https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
I suspect that means the Fed has to hurry up and finish raising bonds. I would think most buying bonds would want to make sure their yield is the floating variety, why buy a bond today when you know today's yield will be less than next month's yield.
Of course stocks aren't the only thing funds can buy.
Sorry I don't know, but it was a 1 for 5 R/S.
Personally I don't think SQQQ is the issue, it's more because enough folks still have extra money from the last two years and are playing with it once again.
NASDAQ Composite high for this year was 15,852 in the first week of January, before the Fed made their intentions known, speculators brought it up to that and they're doing it again.
As I write this the NASDAQ composite is 14,323. Should the high of February or January be used? I used to think February's but now I wonder. (That February high was 14,509, not far away.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/history?p=%5EIXIC
Sounds great Agoura Guy. Say I used to work in Agoura, CA in the late 80s!
This could be the next shoe to drop, especially if they stop some or more exports - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-has-4-days-work-out-rouble-payments-gas-exports-kremlin-says-2022-03-25/
It could get even lower than $31 and change, I'd have to see if the NASDAQ is at a fresh high since the start of February and then I'd be afraid it could go to a fresh high for the whole year.
Bitcoin still going up so retail speculators are still dumping money into it all. (Just my opinion.)
I don't see another reverse split anytime soon. Proshares R/Sed a number of their ETFs at the same time, including this one. Actually after the R/S it made new heights, besides the R/S was not that long ago.
$31 and change is what I'm waiting for too.
Sounds good to me, except the 52 week low is prior to the R/S and still a ways away! The January highs for the NASDAQ was before liquidity was drying up and no way the NASDAQ should get that high again for now, but the February high is not far away, how far past that will the NASDAQ go? Or will it.
Janet Yellen’s Plunge Protection Team Has $142 Billion to buy stocks and more with, half a trillion altogether - article - https://wallstreetonparade.com/2021/03/janet-yellens-plunge-protection-team-has-142-billion-to-play-with/
Janet Yellen’s Plunge Protection Team Has $142 Billion to buy stocks and more with, half a trillion altogether - article - https://wallstreetonparade.com/2021/03/janet-yellens-plunge-protection-team-has-142-billion-to-play-with/
I'm having trouble predicting it at the moment. NASDAQ's been higher since the first of February - https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.IXIC
Bitcoin getting new speculative buyers at the moment, stock speculators may be at it again for the short term. Obviously some scary event could change that.
NASDAQ is already in the artificially elevated category in my opinion but it can go higher.
Lets not forget that NASDAQ was making a number of new highs but only in the 9000s, before the big pandemic March, 2020 drop. It's already higher than it should be for only two years but there still is so much free money to speculate with so here we are.
Of course the ESG could be propping it up too. https://wallstreetonparade.com/2021/03/janet-yellens-plunge-protection-team-has-142-billion-to-play-with/
I tabulated the three NASDAQ peaks this year so far to be 14,142, 14,490 and 14,418. It closed today at 14,108, though it's high for the day was somewhat higher.
I'm thinking there will be a big push to bring down housing/rents some and car prices by the election, after that's over who knows.
I don't think the Democrats can win the house and senate with rents so high, as so many democrats are rents.
What's going on today with the NASDAQ is what was expected to happen yesterday.
Yet another financial website pushing getting people to go long, it will be interesting to see how it goes - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-buy-the-best-beaten-down-stocks-in-tech-and-elsewhere-and-this-winning-fund-manger-shows-you-how-11647615098?mod=home-page
Powell speaks twice this week - https://www.investing.com/news/economy/top-5-things-to-watch-in-markets-in-the-week-ahead-2788028
If Powell makes statement(s) about selling off the huge Fed holdings that the market doesn't like, that could be an issue.
More than one investment house is suggesting people should be buying now but maybe that's because they've gotten in themselves already.
I think if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine in some manner there will be another leg down, other than that I can't tell where the bottom for SQQQ is.
Pre-market and After Hours NASDAQ trading continues in too many cases to be a bad indicator of where it will go during normal trading time.
Maybe the NASDAQ will make a new 2022 high before a sell-off, that could happen this week if so, in that case SQQQ goes below $33.51.
Thank you. GLTY.
Incidentally in my original post I wrote "SQQQ moves .87 for each point the NASDAQ moves", that's just an average, I don't think it moves exactly .87 per point the NASDAQ moves.
I missed buying it at $35 and change last time I had a chance and lost out on good money.
Wish I could see the future.
A whole weekend to wait and see which way the stock market wind will blow.
Not too long ago getting into this ETF at $37 and change would seem like a dream come true but has the stock market buying madness got more to go, at least in the short term? I guess we'll see.
Bloomberg TV posted that this jump was due to "Institutional investors 'exhaustion'". Maybe that means they are tired of waiting so they're jumping in.
Including February of this year the NASDAQ has peaked three times above it's current price, will it do another peak above any of those peaks, or will it peak between them?
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.IXIC?qsearchterm=nasdaq
One peak is not far off. The average high of those three NASDAQ peaks by my unofficial calculation is 14,350. Friday closed at 13,893.84 (up slightly A/H.) (I tabulated the three NASDAQ peaks to be 14,142, 14,490 and 14,418.)
Unofficially, and I hope I got it right, SQQQ moves .87 for each 1 point the NASDAQ moves, so SQQQ needs to move DOWN $4.57 more to reflect the average of the three NASDAQ peaks thus far in 2022 (14,350). (Please check my work if you have the time and inclination.)
Waiting for SQQQ to go down to $33.51 is really tough and what's the likelihood it will even get there?
Of course there is also the question of how much of this jump is due to the Plunge Protection Team/Exchange Stabilization Fund which Lucky Dude turned us on to. https://wallstreetonparade.com/2021/03/janet-yellens-plunge-protection-team-has-142-billion-to-play-with/
Please note that I could be wrong about some or all of this.
Also I DID NOT reference the NASDAQ 100 futures - https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@ND.1
Maybe I should have, I don't know.
P.S. I saw the movie "Margin Call" again the other night so I'm working the numbers. If you haven't seen it recently you might want to. It deals with what we do. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_Call
Potential World War could be an issue at some point, political parties might not matter as much then. Where your money is safest and easiest to get to could be much more important.
I saw your changes LD, good stuff.
Great post LD, now there's the increased specter of WWIII, but like most Ukrainians before the actual invasion of their country, most people in the USA think it's still not something to take seriously. I hope they're right.
Putin is no longer a rational person, what's it to him to ratchet up the WWIII talk. My guess is that is still to come.
And my gosh even after they take Ukraine, (assuming they do) what Russian soldier would feel safe in it.
Biden I think is under a lot of pressure from worried democrat lawmakers to do something NOW about inflation and exorbitant rents and housing prices as November approaches.
I saw an article reading that buying a home is out of reach now for most middle class and lower economic class folks, why would folks in that category (myself included) vote for these lawmakers when republican lawmakers will promise to change that (but likely won't).
Powell is under a lot of pressure to change all that, or seem like change is close, before the election, but in my opinion is really taking his time implementing it, let's not forget Powell is a republican.
All just my opinion, maybe I'm wrong.
Since the Fed Announced It Was “Tapering” Last November, It’s Actually Added $332 Billion in Liquidity with New Debt Security Purchases
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/02/since-the-fed-announced-it-was-tapering-last-november-its-actually-added-332-billion-in-liquidity-with-new-debt-security-purchases/
I hadn't seen it, thank you.
Thank you for your enlightening original post and congratulations on making a nice profit.
Plunge Protection Team/Exchange Stabilization Fund - good webpage about it.
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2021/03/janet-yellens-plunge-protection-team-has-142-billion-to-play-with/
Very interesting, thank you for the post.
Based on current premarket it was a heck of a buy, congratulations.
These markets are bizarre, how could it go up so later last week and today have premarket down so.