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Excellent find. Zoom in on the the auto-injector pen on that very slide (#13). The label on the the AI clearly states Hyaluronidase.
Yes, this is one of the AI in the works that halozyme can not talk about yet.
Xeris and Horizon/Amgen have not even started a phase 1 with Teprotumumab and XeriJet. There is no way they are suddenly doing a phase 3.
… correction JPM
I think it’s absolutely absurd that she did not got o JNJ. She should go to most if not all.
Apparently not
Patent cliff is a non-issue. I agree with the need for new deals
This combination of value and growth is hard to come by. 20-30% EPS growth at low teen PE !!!
Yes for 13 months, the stock has performed poorly and management disappointed in delivering on 2023 milestones. However, it is inevitable that the market, which is often a voting machine in the short run will become weighing machine for halo once again.
I don’t know how much longer it will take, but these ridiculous values for this impressive growth will not last forever.
Either price will creep up or someone will buy it out.
This will get bought out:
PE ratios:
2023 Estimates
13.38
2024 Estimates
10.26
2025 Estimates
8.92
Forecast P/E Growth Rates
Growth 2023
22.84
Growth 2024
30.53
Forecast 12 Month Forward PEG Ratio 0.46
Halozyme should go private
Superdry shares soar more than 100% as company considers going private https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/superdry-shares-soar-more-than-100percent-as-company-considers-going-private.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Re subcutaneous Opdivo: “On a key secondary endpoint, the subcutaneous version triggered a response in 24.2% of patients versus 18.2% for those in the IV group. Therefore, noninferiority on overall response rate was also met. In addition, patients who got the subcutaneous version went a median 7.2 months without disease progression, versus 5.7 months for IV.”
This additional unexpected advantage can easily be the basis for a successful co-formulation.
43% loss over 13 months, failure to deliver on partnership goals, misdiagnosis of market concerns, no insider purchases, severely underperforming XBI, IBB, Nasdaq and not responding to investor emails. How do they keep their jobs?!
Based on the underperformance compared to XBI benchmark, “patent cliff” (or the lack thereof) was clearly not the top concern for market. It was already a non-issue for informed investors. Halo is severely undervalued due to lack of 1) new deals, 2) insider buys and 3)effective communication regarding HVAI innovation.
where is the HVAI deal that was near completion in 2023? In November, Helen said they are close to signing it and it might still happen in 23 but possibly in 24. Jan is almost over! Also, where is IR? She has not responded to email since 1/10!
You want to see the market’s reaction to insider buys, take a look at BABA today
Howeeme, we will soon be in 40’s, 50’s and beyond. The same people who don’t like halo here in 30’s, also did not believe in it when it was trading in the 20’s, teens and even single digits. We have been around this board long enough to know that.
My perspective is that management dropped the ball in 2023 and the stock price reflects this. However, in most other years, Halozyme has executed well enough that even without HVAI or any new deals, we are looking at a 20-34% annual EBITA growth in the next 5 years.
I am disappointed with the management for not delivering on the 3 deals in 2023, on the lack of insider buys and for ineffective story telling on the new HVAI innovation . But these are addressable in early 2024.
I expect all three to be addressed in short order. If so (once management shows they can deliver again), take the 5 year projected EPS (see slide deck from yesterday) and apply a super conservative PE of 15-20 and you will have a range of where halo will be trading.
Here are the EPS ranges starting in 2024 and through 2028:
3.55 - 3.90
4.10 - 4.50
5.30 - 5.80
6.70 - 7.30
6.90 - 7.50
Even if you apply a low PE of 15, here is the share price range:
$53-58
$61-67
$79-87
$100-109
$103-112
In 2027 when halo is trading north of $100, if you post here about your past success with investing in Halozyme, the same folks will be unimpressed and find it to irrelevant. I won’t.
We maybe in the middle of a major inflection point in Halozyme’s share price performance. I think in 2023, management learned a lesson in the importance of communicating well with investors and compelling storytelling. Today they put forth the best narrative around the sustainability of their earnings growth for many years to come. Soon they will tell the story of the HVAI innovation much better than they have in the past. This combined with new deals and insider buys will take halo to all-time new highs. With halo’s projected 20-30% annual EPS growth through 2027, even at double the current share price, halo would still be a bargain. Remember, we are now at 2024 PE ratio of 9.8. Average biopharma stock has PE ratio of around 20 and they have a far slower EPS growth and profit margin than Halo.
We have a huge runway.
Healthy price action today as well. I love down days that turn green with heavy volume. Very strong signal.
Tour de force presentation today. Loved the 5 year projections. Superb EBITA and cash flow growth up to and beyond 2027. Patent concerns are put to rest. All we need is HVAI deal, insider buys and a similar story-telling effort on HVAI innovation.
Healthy and constructive activity with good volume for Halozyme despite red XBI and negative overall market tape.
The confidential Alzheimer’s partner who is using Enhanze might be Janssen (JNJ) based on this phase 2 clinical trial. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04070378?tab=results
According to IR, Halozyme’s leadership believes that the poor share price performance over the past 12 months is due to 2 factors:
1) misunderstanding over if patent expiration will affect royalty revenue and earnings
2) delay in new partnership deals
Sounds like next Wednesday’s investor forum is to address the former.
From my perspective, #2 is more important.
I for one, already understand that because of “coformulation” patents, expiration of “composition of matter” patent will have no effect on royalties (with the exception of Faspro). But even for Faspro, it’s only a step down in royalties (2024 in EU and 2027 in US) and not a complete loss of royalty.
But I guess, there are enough investors out there who are still not clear about how this works.
markets like to hear about the future. At last, an attempt to tell the story better. I hope we see new deals and insider buys too.
Lots of unusual call option activity today and over the past few weeks for Halo. This combined with Helen’s absence at JPM (for over a decade Halo’s CEO’s have given talks at JPM) tells me something big is happening.
My guess would be a large deal, a buy out or a CEO change.
2024 PE of 9.8
Yes, possibly but probably not for 5 to 7 years since clinicaltrials.gov search shows that they have zero trials in humans. They two technologies of xerojet and xerosol are both in pre-clinical.
According to IR, although CEO is not JPM and Halozyme is not a presenter, 2 members of the C-suite are there and hopefully making connections/deals.
That would be fine by me.
It’s comical that Halozyme with higher profit margins and far higher current and future EPS growth (PEG of 0.48 vs 3) has a lower 2023, 2024 and 2025 PE ratios than JNJ. (stats from finviz and nasdaq)
People don’t know about this company. We need management who can tell the story more effectively.
There better be a big positive announcement this week to justify missing the biggest healthcare conference of the year.
From Argenx’s update today:
“Update on pre-filled syringe development expected in first half of 2024;”
Credit to Bonken on Y board for the following observation on halozyme:
“Looking at entire 2024 option data it reveals interesting thoughts. First, over 500 each of $45&$50 December calls were bought Friday that makes near 900 option interest for 45 call and 1264 call for $50 strike. Very heavy interest for this stock. Never seen this for long time. Years? Someone is playing for merger or CEO change?…January 19th call 1300 interest is also very high.”
Fantastic post and a great find.
Darzelex in US is not affected until 2027. Earnings estimates already factor in the step down in EU for Darzelex.
Buy backs are fundamentally good. They reduce the number of shares outstanding, making the shareholders have a larger ownership of current and future earnings. Apple has been doing share buy backs for many years. Many of the S&P 500 companies do share buy backs.
The problem with halozyme is that they failed to execute on deals last year. The science, fundamentals and valuations are all good. They need better folks making deals and telling the story of Enhanze.
In a report released today, Joseph Catanzaro from Piper Sandler maintained a Buy rating on Halozyme (HALO – Research Report), with a price target of $46.00. The company’s shares closed yesterday at $36.55.
Very true. Catch and kill also happened with Pfizer Lilly and Enhanze. Like you, I’m not too concerned about Elektrofi. With nothing approved and nothing in clinical trials, they are at best 5-7 years away from being a competitor and a small catch and kill at worst.
With credit to YF poster Charles: “for what it's worth - large amount of call volume today for a stock where options trading is generally non-existent. Jan 40 and 45's which expire in 2 weeks have traded 249 and 380 contracts, respectively. Last trade on Jan 45's was at $0.25 which is over 9 points out of the money with 2 weeks left. Also, Feb 45's 103 contracts. These could just be closing of open positions but that much volume compared to the daily nil is interesting, maybe?? Next to nothing on the put side.”
Yes. We can use better leadership. Even a microcap xers with no earnings & nothing approved with their xerisol or xerijet technology is presenting at JPM next week (they have some other nonprofitable injectables but nothing with their own tech) Their insiders bought 80k shares over the last 3 months & sold none. Compare their stock performance to halo’s lately.
Following up on my last pot on Elektrofi (read that one first)…Nothing counts until you have clinical trials. For example Lilly and Pfizer had deals with halozyme 5-8 years ago (paid upfront money, promised milestones, etc, just like J&J and Lilly recently did with Elektrofi) on multiple targets but they did not progress thru trials.
Today’s drop was an over-reaction to immaterial news (see my earlier post) that will not affect Halozyme’s EPS (at least not for 7 years) .
However it shows the weakness of Halo’s management. Elektrofi with nothing approved and nothing even in human trials has garnered 2 big partnerships in 4 months. Whereas halozyme with over 700k patients treated post FDA and EU approvals has had 2 pathetic partnerships in 2 years.
Correction: name of their platform is hypercon
This might be why halo went down today:
https://www.elektrofi.com/news/elektrofi-janssen-biotech-enter-worldwide-collaboration
However, if you go to clinical trials gov, you will find zero clinical trials with Elektrofi or hyoercon (the name of their platform). Nothing even in phase one. They are 5-7 years away. Plus I don't know how they will get the proteins that are released from their nanoparticles injected into
subcutaneous tissue to travel through hyaluronan and make it to the veins and lymphatic system and therefore into the circulation. It seems to me that they will need halozyme's technology to get through the hyaluronan.