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Very sad that Charlie Sheen publicizes more pk/pd data than the company.
The article said 200 patients have been evaluated. Is that the same as enrolled, or the same as approved for trial ?
You notice Kuritzkes (reports a relationship with Gilead) is downplaying this. "There may be a small number of patients who want to avoid taking pills" Ummmm, it's the side effects, stupid !
This is not a priority. Otherwise it would have happened long ago via reverse split. Neither is break through designation; they would be working on it now. I don't understand either. Despite that: Cydy is still too good to ignore
"Cydy might move to 60 a share!!!!!!" Mmmmmmm, might not.
Many reverse splits are for companies that are going bankrupt. That does not apply here.
Wouldn't a different company be able to pay more for CYDY (presuming cash flows are equal) because the other company would not be paying to replace current revenue, but obtain NEW revenue. Otoh, who has even half the cash flow of GILD ?
Awesome, Closed at a yearly high; but not intraday.
"As of October 7, Anavex common stock will trade under the ticker symbol AVXLD for a period of 20 business days. After that time or earlier once NASDAQ approves the uplisting requirements, the “D” will be removed and our Company's symbol will once again be AVXL. A new CUSIP number will be assigned to the Company's common stock as a result of the reverse split. "
The 20th day as a temp symbol (AVXLD) would have been November 3rd.
http://www.journaltranscript.com/2015/10/anavex-life-sciences-otcmktsavxld-reverses-its-drop/
Actually Oct 28th was AVXLD last day, and the peak was actually November 2nd. Then the stock dropped sharply to 3.24 on Nov 17th.
So, as it turns out, the stock price movement didn't correspond so tightly to the reverse split. Price action should be crazy, but there's no dependable play here, at least for me.
I was looking at .... was it Avarex (?) which had a similar reverse split and it peaked sharply on the last day of the old board, and fell sharply in the days after that. I would certainly only sell a small portion of my shares.
So the time to sell (short-term) might be the afternoon of the last day on the old board; and buy back in roughly a week later after the shorts have re-shorted. Might you agree ?
Curious, on a few Seeking Alpha articles on GILD, I have mentioned Pro 140's "complete suppression of HIV virus for 18 months" and nobody has remarked about that and only 1 person liked my comment. It is as if they (article authors and readers) have a denial blind spot. Ok, sometimes a comment gets buried, then again many read only the comments. You'd think that would generate *some* sort of conversation
Nader said BTD was not granted and that the small trial required to get BTD would likely not be worth th trouble. I think that was the April conference call.
Generally Charlie Sheen is the exact opposite of who you want to be a spokesperson. Imo.
As far as I've heard, BTD is dead. Nader said he wasn't convinced it was worth the time and effort. I felt that was a mistake.
Wow. Thanks for the perspective. No matter how good things look ... A measure of caution will serve you well. Perhaps especially at such times.
Yes I can imagine that, but what *other* development stage bio has the likely future standard of care in a multi-deca-billion market ?? If there's another, please let me know so I can diversify.
Because the market is wrong. Perhaps the right word is ignorant, as in unaware.
Worst case, a $1 Bill buyout with further 25% dilution (we've seen a bunch lately) might be as low as $4.00 ? That's sobering. But again, that would be a crime.
Insiders own 2.6% of the company.(Yahoo) That does not include the recent 1 Mill shares, so 3.6% of the company. Many shareholders would say YES to a sudden doubling or tripling in share price. Dr P. would recommend voting no (I don't know how much sway he has with the bulk of shareholders) but at some point short of $1 Bill, a buyout would go through.
My deepest hope is that the rest of the pharma world doesn't allow GILD or whomever, to get away with buying CYDY on the cheap. Right now, the company could be bought for a paltry $400 Mill. That would be a crime. You really think $3/ share wouldn't get a majority of shareholders ? WE aren't the majority.
Thank you 5Top very much for presenting this model from which we can adjust to make our own guesses.
$20 Bill HIV revenue (I like round numbers; easy to calculate)
70% CR5 and 50% market share produces $7 Bill/ year in revenue by several years from now.
4 times sales for a buyout = $28 Bill
$100 Mill for future trial costs (conservative round number)
$100 / $1.66 = 60 Mill new shares plus 40 Mill for options and warrants = 100 Mill
200 Mill shares now + 100 Mill = 300 Mill O/S
$28 Bill / 300 Mill = ..... $93 / share.
(Throw in Europe 2/3 of US market ?) for .... $150 ish.
Caution : this is a *wildest dreams* scenario assuming approval for mono and combo therapy and general acceptance of whichever is approved first. So this wouldn't be until early 2018.
Big Pharma would be stupid to let this happen and Gilead would be INCREDIBLY stupid to let this happen. I continue to be astonished that there is no $500 Mill buyout now or more realistically, a few months after June 20.
Presentation PDF given 2 days ago.
http://content.equisolve.net/cytodyn/media/a142a8575db88331c0585a336ca2ebfd.pdf
I was comparing from what they showed at the February investor conference and that conference call.
Right, but Nasser talked as if it wasn't worth the time or money to do a minor study. We've already discovered otherwise with the year+ delay in trial.
My displeasure with the company is that they *chose* to skip the break through designation, and they *chose* to not uplist. With BTD, they wouldn't have that trial delay, and with an uplist they'd have an easier time with finding. Those are CYDYs two biggest issues.
As someone else said, that is an unreasonably high price for CYDY at this stage. However, on the big board CYDY would be higher; how much I couldn't say
If so, then it is really a shame for the shareholders that the company didn't do a reverse split.
A virus level of zero does not mean a cure of HIV. Unfortunately the virus can hide in other places besides bloodstream and reinfect t the patient.
If this is recent, dO you have a link ?
Yes, and I find it incomprehensible that the rest of Big Pharma might let Gilead do that uncontested. All this is speculative. If you're trying to beat GILD at HIV, what better way than to *try* to outbid them, especially if the price is only a couple billion. They ought to FORCE Gilead to pay up big to defend their turf.
I thought, "those guys" buy after when CYDY gets up listed. Catch 22 ?
Yes, that would be far down the road, but I can be patient for that.
Right, and the only way to get $10 B, is for PRO 140 revenues to be rolling in, which will take quite awhile.
No, just a longer term horizon. If the buyout happens later, say after FDA approval, then the price tag will be a lot higher. I don't want a < $1B buyout, but at $10+ B one. Will that happen .... probably not, but there's a big difference.
The price gains I have hope for are the months following; very little for late June, imo. Takes time to approve a buyout offer. Then again I kinda hope for a $1 on Jan 1st next so I can add more in IRA.
No. It could have happened long ago, so I don't expect it now. ASM won't get PPS to 2. Maybe intraday briefly.
After about two minutes, it did finally work.
Hmm, works from desktop, but not smartphone. Thanks !
That doesn't work with the app. Is that work on web only ?