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Re:CHGY/Allan, his average cost is around 20 cents or below. That is why he may still be happy. He may also take some off table when CHGY is above $3. He is one of the best stock pickers I have ever known. Most of CHGY old timers did taking a good chunk of profit from the table including myself. We have made a fortune from CHGY.
BFTI presentation:
BFTI presentation is listed below.
New prodcution facility will be ramped up to full operation in 3 years with >$150 million USD revenue annually at full operation in Phase 1. 5 times of increase in revenue in 3 years. Phase 2 expansion will increase the capacity further.
Shifted and expanded into speciality cables with gross margin of 30-60%. High gross margin coupled with 5 tims of increase in revenue in Phase 1 will drmatically increase in earning.
7 patents and 22 pending.
Already has bank loan to fund the growth and equity financing is not required.
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=7457672-13010-18158&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-10-048974
Preliminary quarter earning report out. $2.224 million USD net income and $11.98 million USD revenue. Earning per share of 7.5 cents for fiscal Q4. Revenue almost double over the last Q and earning more than double over the last Q. For the year, net earning of $4.6 million USD.
The results are better than my estimated numbers of 6.8 cents per share for the Q.
Based on Q4 results of 7.5 cents, the annualized earning of 30 cents per share with forward PE=3. Trailing PE=6.8.
Hi KIK,
Congratulation! Amazing performance, particularly all your original 6 picks are positive in this bear market! You are the only one able to do that. Talking about stock picking skill.
Congratulation to SSKILLZ1 as well as all the top 10 competitors.
Northern
Hi Minding, I will check STEM. Thanks.
NL
Bid is now 0.75 and ask 1.40
Absolutely. Plenty of time to buy stocks at deep discount.
KiK, I just check the standing. It looks like that you will win this race. Congratulation to your thind win!
Northern
That is their projection of revenue from their new production facility (10Qs and 10K and my discussion with them:
June 2010 - June 2011: $51 million USD
June 2011 - June 2012: $110 million USD
June 2012 - June 2013: $200 million USD
June 2013 - June 2014: $400 million USD
June 2014 - June 2015: $745 million USD
They thought that they could have 30% gross margin. If they are right, they could make about $3 per share of earning in 5 years. This could be $15 - $30 stocks in 5 years.
I talked to one of their managers recently. They have been increasing production month by month since they moved to their new prodcution facility in March this year. So BFTI looks a great growth story in the next few years. They may be able to earn over $1.2 per share in 2 -3 years.
Hi George,
It may be difficult to get fill at 1.00. But it is quite possible to get someshares of BFTI at 1.40 if you are willing to buy at that price.
Nelson
up 38% with 6888 shares. Bid now at 1.40 and ask 2.25. Again huge spread.
Re: CCME. Bus operators can say No to CCME and chose another partner. They are in a strong position now. CCME has an advantage to enter this field earlier and at that time bus operators grabbed any fee they could get. Not now, ther are in hot demand and many companies want to get into the same business as CCME. They are in very strong position to ask for mcu higher fee from CCME, or they will chose another partner. Competition will reduce the gross margin. That, I believe, is what shorts are looking at. In my view, they may likely be right.
Re: CCME. Thanks KiK. No, I don't hold any CCME. But I would not short CCME either at this level and at this stage.
Re: CCME. Bus operators have a very strong position to ask for a higher future price from CCME. There are competitors wanting to get into the same area. The gross margin is not sustainable.
AWRCF has a big volume today so far, 103K volume. Technically, it looks good for a possibloe break out going forward.
Who was lucky to get some BFTI shares at 1.0-1.1? I got only 500 shares at 1.10 today. It has been tough to acquire shares of BFTI.
Hi bradford,
It is a good sign that EURO now stabilizes. The third Q will be affected by decline in EURO. I am waiting for Q3 results and then decide what I am going to do. If EURO can hold at this level, PFGY may be able to turn the business around. Another short term effect is that they may need to do another write-off ( the last one).
Northern
Insiders own about 38.8 million shares or 86.2% and float about 6.2 million shares or 13.8%.
Re: AWRCF.OB. Someone posted on Yahoo Board:
"CFO Interview: Asia Pacific Wire And Cable Corporation Ltd. - Frank Tseng
Frank Tseng has served as CFO of Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corporation Ltd. since October 2009. Before joining APWCC, he was the Deputy CFO for ABB Taiwan. Prior to that, Mr. Tseng served as the APAC Regional Controller for Phoenix Technologies, a Silicon Valley-based company that is publicly traded on Nasdaq. Mr. Tseng holds a master's degree in accounting from Georgia State University. He is also a CPA by the State of Illinois.
TWST: Let's start with a brief overview of Asia Pacific Wire & Cable's history, products, services and customers.
Mr. Tseng: The company was established in 1996, when we spun off from our parent company, PEWC, which stands for Pacific Electric Wire & Cable, which operates in four countries, or four regions. PEWC is our largest shareholder and still holds 65% of our shares. Our other major shareholder is SOF, which is a private equity fund of Michael Dell, which owns 9.7%. Altogether, these two companies own about 75%, leaving about 25% to free-float in the market. We are listed in the U.S. under the symbol AWRCF.OB, and we have manufacturing operations in China, Thailand, Singapore and Australia.
In China we produce two kinds of products, enameled wires and fiber-optic cable. Enameled wires are produced in Shenzhen and in the Shanghai area, and fiber-optic cable is produced in a joint venture in Shandong Province, in which we hold a 51% stake. In China we have five operating units. We are also contemplating adding a new one by reopening a facility we had previously shut down due to a product phaseout.
We also have operations in Thailand. Charoong Thai is our flagship company, and we also operate Siam Fiber Optics, SFO, which also manufactures fiber-optic cable. Charoong Thai produces a full range of products, such as power cables, enameled wire, fiber-optic cable and some legacy wire products. We have been in Thailand for 40 years and have developed strong relationships there, which create a strong entry barrier for competitors.
To summarize, Singapore is mostly a mix of government-sponsored projects. In Thailand sales not only come from government-sponsored projects, but also from large construction projects. In China the government is focusing heavily on building out its telecommunications infrastructure. Enameled wires are primarily used by makers of electric motors and consumer appliances, and we also cooperate with Taiwanese manufacturers. Australia produces only low-voltage power cable, which is primarily used for residential as well as commercial projects.
TWST: What are the most important trends, developments or changes you anticipate in your sector over the next two to three years?
Mr. Tseng: Our focus is on China. We have five manufacturing facilities in China which produce enameled wires and fiber-optic cable. We have a dormant manufacturing facility located in Ningbo, in Zhejiang Province, which has been offline for several years. We recently developed a new plan that was approved by the board of directors to convert that property into a new manufacturing facility for producing a new line of electronic wiring. Electronic wiring is mostly used inside components in computers, consumer electronics and automobiles. This is a new product for APWCC, however, our parent company, PEWC, has a technology patent and has been producing electronic wiring for a number of years. PEWC will assist us in setting up the factory, and over a few years, we think it could become our largest operating unit in China. Today the Shenzhen operation, which produces enameled wires, is our largest in China. But over several years, I think the Ningbo operation could exceed Shenzhen's production."
http://www.twst.com/yagoo/ala609.html
Thanks kozuh. Like your funny post.
Re: CHGY. Inner Mongolia coal mine consolidation. <300K tons of coal mines will be shut down. The number of coal produced companies will be reduced. Excellent opportunity for CHGY to play a role for coal mine consolidation:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-07/10/content_10090969.htm
CHGY has a rare developmental opportunity in Inner Mongolia coal mine consolidation
Unlike coal industry in Shanxi province where government owned coal mines play the key role in consolidation (majority large coal mines are owned by government in Shanxi province), majority coal mines in Inner Mongolia are privately owned and CHGY has an excellen opportunity to expand by acquiring other coal mines since it has little competition from government owned coal mines. CHGY could develop into a large coal company if it wisely uses financing and coal mine acquisition.
Share price is now $2. CHGY can now apply for AMEX listing. It takes about one to rwo months to get approval and after approved the share price needs to be above $2 for a minimum 10 days for formaly listing on AMEX.
Q2 earning report will be out this week. AMEX listing may likely be in September this year.
Thanks Researcher59 for your generosity!
Northern
AWRCF - Usually Q1 is the weak Q for wire and cable producers. Q2 and Q3 are going to be better. So AWRCF does look very cheap trading at less than 1/3 book value and 0.27 earning per share for Q1.
CHGY - Talked to Management
Earning report for Q2 will be out on July 15. They have got everything ready for uplisting to AMEX except for share price. The share price needs to be above $2 for a minimum 10 days for uplisting on AMEX. They are disappointed that the share price is so low trading at forward PE=4 this year according to their guidance. They hope that the share price will be above $2 after Q2 earning report, so that they go straight to AMEX listing without reverse split. They are waiting at the stage. After AMEX listing, they plan to acquire other coal mines, which likely happens at the end of this year or early next year.
Hi George, It is pretty clear to me that FEEC will be 10 bagger in about 3 years' time frame. It is a long term winner. I gradually build up my position there.
Northern
Hi Minding,
Now I undersatnd where your question came form. In China, they sell two konds of medicines, traditional Chinese medicine and Western pharmaceutical medicine.
JGBO is up 9% this morning with a small volume. But I will not chase it.
Best Regards.
Northern
Hi Minding,
Regarding JGBO, I went through their 10Q and 10K filings. All their sale is in China. It looks undervalue from book value, cash on hand and PE basis at share price of low $8 range. I had a small position.
NL
BFTI Background Information of Reverse Merge from Northlion:
"BFTI.OB formerly FREZ.OB - (Frezer, Inc.)
New Name of Company: BEFUT International Co., Ltd.
CIK# 0001328888
Keating sold this shell to a large Chinese wire and cable company. Here is the operating company's website: http://www.shipcable.cn/befut/Default.asp
Details of the transaction are summarized below in this April 13th filing:
On March 13, 2009 (the “Closing Date”), the Company entered into and consummated a series of transactions whereby (a) the Company acquired 100% of the outstanding shares of common stock of BEFUT Corporation, a Nevada corporation (“Befut Nevada”), from Befut BVI in exchange for the issuance to Befut BVI of a net number of 117,768,300 shares of the Company’s Common Stock and the cancellation of an aggregate of 2,176,170 shares of the Company’s Common Stock and (b) the Company raised $500,000 in gross proceeds from the sale to four investors pursuant to a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) of convertible promissory notes of the Company in the principal amount of $500,000 and warrants to purchase an aggregate of 720,076 shares of the Company’s Common Stock. As a result of the transactions, Befut Nevada became a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company. Befut Nevada, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Hongkong BEFUT Co., Ltd., a Hong Kong corporation (“Befut Hongkong”), wholly owns Befut Electric (Dalian), Co., Ltd., a PRC corporation (“WOFE”), which company has entered into a series of agreements with Dalian Befut, pursuant to which WFOE has established control over Dalian Befut, its captive manufacturing company. Dalian Befut is one of the largest developers, manufacturers and distributors of wire and cable products in Northeastern China.
On March 13, 2009 Befut Nevada purchased from three persons an aggregate of 2,176,170 shares of the Company’s Common Stock constituting 51% of the then outstanding shares of the Company’s Common Stock for an aggregate purchase price of $370,000. The funds were from the gross proceeds of $500,000 the Company raised on the same day, March 13, 2009, as set forth above. All 2,176,170 shares were cancelled as part of the share exchange transaction described in clause (a) of the immediately preceding paragraph.
On March 25, 2009, pursuant to a Stockholders Agreement dated March 13, 2009 among Befut BVI, Cao and certain other stockholders of Befut BVI which was filed as Exhibit 4 to the Original Statement (the “Stockholders Agreement”), Befut BVI distributed to two of the stockholders which were parties to the Stockholders Agreement (in exchange for all of such stockholders equity interest in Befut BVI) an aggregate of 4,096,288 shares of the Company’s Common Stock previously held by Befut BVI, thereby reducing the number of shares of the Company’s Common Stock held by Befut BVI to 113,672,012.”
Befut Corporate Structure
A detailed description of the corporate relationship between the different companies and people is given in the 8-K filed March 19, 2009. There is also a very detailed description of the company's business. This is not a small company - they have annual revenues of approximately $20,000,000. Here is the link:
http://www.pinksheets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=6490783
In brief, after the transactions:
Befut (Virgin Islands), along with 2 connected parties
owns 98.26% of
BEFUT International Co., Ltd.)
which owns 100% of
Befut Nevada
which owns 100% of
Hong Kong Befut
which holds 100% of the equity of
WFOE - Befut Electric (Dalian) Co. Ltd.
which has as its 100% captive
Dalian Befut - the NE China Wire and cable Company
(whose shares are 98% owned by the same principals
of Befut BVI - Hongbo Cao and Tingmin Li)
and, Dalian Befut (along with Cao and Li) owns 96.6% of
Dalian Marine Cable Co.
Share Structure of Frezer: (Updated to reflect holdings after the RS - further down)
Authorized: 200,000,000 Common Shares and 10,000,000 Preferred Shares
The new OS following the transactions described above and in the various filings is: 119,859,130 (as given in the 8-K).
There are also warrants issued for another 720,076 share, and the convertible notes payable could also result in the issuance of an additional 1,064,496 shares at some future date. The exercise price on the warrants is 19.16 cents per share.
Shareholders are: Befut BVI (Virgin Islands Co.) [after 4.07:1 RS and in June 2009 10K: 27,929,242 (93.6%)]
Mr. Yining Xia [after 4.07:1 RS and in June 2009 10K: 749.930 (2.5%)]
All other shareholders [after 4.07:1 RS and in June 2009 10K: 1,153,499 (3.9%)]
**Immediately after the share exchanges in March, the former controlling party and associates still had 1,493,830 shares as recorded in the 8-K (KI Equity Partners IV,LLC had 1,424,634, Garish Financial had 34,598, and Kevin R. Keating had 34,598).
**In the 10-K (June 30, 2009), it mentions that another 58,815 shares were issued in the three months prior in connection with the 4:07:1 Reverse split, making a total of 29,832,671 shares outstanding and provisionally covering the warrant and convertible notes. Based on calculations, it seems that there are only 3.9% of those are held by general shareholders, meaning that there is a very small tradeable float."
Some BFTI information and estimation
For BFTI, when I first went over their website, the company mentioned to achieve 5 billion RMB revenue in 5 years. 5 billion RMB = $730 million USD revenue. I went over their SEC 10K and 10Q filing, they mentioned to achieve $250-300 million USD revenue in 3 years. Those numbers had really cought my eyes considering the stock was traded at 35 cents bid and 48 cents ask, or $10.5 - 14.4 million market with annual revenue of $20 million in the last 12 months. Better yet, their gross margin is expected to expand to 30-35% from about 25-27% because they shift they products from low margin convention cables to high margin special cables. As I checked, conventional cables have a gross margin of 8-10% while special cables have a gross margin of 30-45%.
I did further checking and found that cable industry is the 2nd largest industry in China, after car industry, with about 2,000 -4,000 producers, most of them produce conventional cables at a small scale. Majority of special cables was imported from oversea.
So I have a good story here, business is going to increase from $20 million to $730 million USD in 5 years, or 37 times; and earning sure is going to increase more than 37 times because of fixed cost and margin expand. The last 12 months of earning was 10 cents per share, at 37 times, that will be $3.7 per share. Pretty low risk to buy the stock at even the ask price of $0.48 per share, ha?
With all the information, I have the following best case estimation:
Year 1: $56 million revenue, $0.3 -0.35 per share of earning.
Year 2: $112 million revenue, $0.7 per share of earning
Year 3: $224 million revenue, $1.5 per share of earning
Year 4: $448 million revenue, $3.2 per share of earning
Year 5: $730 million revenue, $5 per share of earning
Can BFTI achieve the above loft projections? I think that year 1 is very likely based on the latest quarter report. The probablity decreases from year 2 to 5 due to future market uncertainty.
But if my average price is 55-60 cents per share, that is less than the forward PE=2, the risk is very low. I can continue to monitor the company progress and decide whether I want to reduce or increase my position in BFTI going forward.
THE NSOMNIYAK CHALLENGE
For my original 6 picks for this PSL 15 contest, I own BEST, CHGY, FEEC and JGBO, but I don't own NIV and SECX. The reasons I picked them are listed below:
BEST - Traded less than net tangible assets and forward estimated PE=7. Business has been improving with continue increase in revenue. It just posted a good earning quarter.
JGBO - This is a uplisting play. I expected that JGBO would move to a big board listing during the contest period (It actually moved to Nasdaq listing last Friday). This may be the catalyst to boost the share price. Very low valuation with forward PE=4 and P/B less than 1. Majority book value is in cash.
CHGY - This is also a uplisting play together with low valuation. I expected that uplisting to AMEX would occur between July and September this year. It is traded at forward PE=5 for this year. It had appointed 3 independent board directors last Friday. It is getting closer to AMEX listing. It looks like a storng Q2 earning report next month with smooth coal production and higher coal price in Q2 per my discussion with the company.
FEEC - CBM business is booming in China and FEEC has the best CBM blocks in China with lots of gas (18 -24 TCF gas in place). Gas sale agreement is expected to be signed in June or July. Chinese gas reserve number may be available in Q2. Commercial gas sale is expected in Q3. SEC gas reserve may be available in Q4. The deal between Arrow and FEEC may be approved by Chinese Government in August. The short term risk is dilution by a possible equity financing.
NIV - Trailing price/earning less than 4 and Nasdaq listing. This is a cheap stock for one of the major producers of audio and viedo products in China. The business still looks good going forward.
SECX - Very low P/S =0.03 and a good earning report in the latest quarter is the reason I picked it for the contest. Technically, it formed a good base and any good news or earning number next Q may pop it.
Northern
The chart below tells all, the sharp drop in Euro in one month:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Hi bradford, Good to see you here. I am waiting for the next Q report to be out on August 15 to gauge their progress. So far BFTI looks like a very good long term story
Hi Minding, Talke a look at JGBO. The Q earning report just out. Pretty good numbers with strong balance sheet. I just bought 1500 shares at 8.50.
Hi Minding, From the previous quarter revenue and earning, PFTI does not look very attractive at the current share price. The key is whether they can deliver their projection. We will know that in the next quarter earning report that will be out on August 15. I think that they can deliver their projection, but I want to confirm that in the next quarter earning report. So I think that it may be better to wait and see at this stage.
March Q/10 earning report just out. Revenue of $6.708 million USD and earning 0.691 million. Gross margin of 25.42%. It was better Q than I thought considering it was transition Q. Revenue projection of $56 million USD from June 2010 to June 2011, which is almost double the previous yrearly number.
"Outlook
Primarily for the reasons described below, we believe we will experience annual sales growth of more than 70% for our next fiscal year ending June 30, 2011.
Among our more than 200 customers, approximately 30 are considered "large" customers with average annual specialty cable order needs of more than $7 million. Due, in part, to our past limited production capacity, we were not able to accept large-volume orders from these customers. With the recent completion of our new factory, which started operations in early 2010, we now have the ability to produce specialty cables in large volumes. Thus, in the quarter ended March 31, 2010, we began to adjust our sales strategy to focus mainly on accepting large-volume orders. We estimate that in our fiscal year ending June 30, 2011, we will accept large-volume orders (more than $700,000 each) from more than 30 existing and new customers, including petrochemical companies, mining and metallurgical companies, nuclear power plants and shipbuilding companies. We expect these customers to generate sales of about $45 million, which we estimate will account for approximately 80% of our total sales for our fiscal year ended June 30, 2011. We plan to add "large" customers each year as there are currently more than 100 companies located in northern China with average annual specialty cable order needs of more than $7 million."
Bid at 1.25 and ask at 2.50. There is no way that you can have good trading volume at this kind of spread. I had a bid at 1.01 in yesterday. They filled 1 share yesterday and 5 shares today. That is crazy.
Thanks researcher. I was just lucky. My picks happened to pop during this contest. This underlines importance of trading skill. Join this kind of content against the best stock pickers start to improve my trading skill. Congratulation to all the top 10.
len/SSKILLZ1, I guess that I need to write something. Should I send it to you through PM or post it here after I am done? Thanks.