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Production of cement by Japan was affected hugely by earthquake and particularly electricity shortage. Japan was a export country before earthquake. Now Japan would need import cement for their re-building process. China will mostly like fill the vacuum.
I don't see any chance for CRJI to export cement to Japan. But CSGJ will have a good chance.
Cement price in China will most likely be affected by supply and demand in China. With China stopped approving cement production line in Septemebr 2009 and it usually takes about 1.5 years to build a production line, there will be not further increase in cement supply in the 2nd half of this year. With further increase in demand of cement in China (6 - 10% annually), it looks to me that China will suffer cement shortage going forward. We may see significantly increase in cement price in China next year. Some even projects 50% gross margin for cement producers in China.
The best opportunity is in 2012 and forward.
CRJI cement selling price:
(1) February
P.S.52.5 - 480 RMB per ton
P.O.42.5 - 410 RMB per ton
P.C. 32.5 - 350 RMB per ton
(2) March
P.O. 42.5 - 420 RMB per ton
P.C. 32.5 - 340 RMB per ton
Please remember that their production cost on average is about 200 - 210 RMB per ton. So you are looking for over 30% gross margin taking consideration of depreciation cost of equipment. The cement price is usually higher in the 2nd half of the year, so it is only going to go up. I think that CRJI will make $3 - 4 million net earning in Q1 and $16 million net earning in 2011. This is PE<1 at thye current share price.
Next year will be even better.
I think that we have 500% appreciation potential in 2 years from the current share price of 15 cents.
Northern
CSGJ's Longkou Plant exports cement product. Longkou Plant is close to Japan and only 6 km from the sea port. This plant may benefit from the re-build of Japan.
There will be shortage in cement in China next year.
No. If ENHD buys shareholders out at anything less than the average 3 month share price before delisting, you should sue them for price manipulation. If they do buy back shares, the price should be higher than $2.
Hi Minding,
I think that it has little to do with macro economy in China. I think that Chinese economy is going to perfom very well in the next few years. The major problem is the lack of protection of investor intrest in these Chinese stocks. The risk is incredable, but the profit is also amazing. Do Chinese stocks come back life in the future? I think that they will. It always does. It may take long time.
Northern
Thanks Minding. If Chinese companies do the same as FSIN does, Chinese stocks will have much better valuation and much higher PE multiple than they enjoy today. Lack of trust amd honesty is the problem.
That is the proper way to do it - FSIN goes private:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/256190-fushi-copperweld-going-private-could-be-huge-for-chinese-equity-valuations?source=yahoo
Chinese stocks are always like that, very volatile. They can lose 50-80% value in a few month. They can also return 3 - 5 times in a few months. They all perform very poor recently. This may change when earning reports coming out in the next few months.
Hi Minding,
CSGJ is supposed to report 10K before the end of this month. But it could be postponed to the middle of next month.
Northern
I had a quick check. Nothing significantly. Their pass cement selling price was in the range of $30-$40 USD per ton. Their current selling price is 350-380 RMB ($52-57 USD) per ton. I think that they will make $3 - 4 million net earning in Q1/11. The valuation is very low,trailing PE=1.5 after Q1 earning report and PE<1 for this year projected earning.
Wihtout producing your own clinker, you only enjoy half of the profit.
For example, CRJI has a production cost basis of 200 RMB per ton. Their current cement price is 350-380 RMB per ton. So their gross profit is about 130-180 RMB per ton. Their net margin is about 80 RMB per ton. I think that CRJI is going do about $16 million net earning.
CSGJ may have 50 RMB per ton of net profit for their new 1 million ton of production. They may have about 30 RMB per ton of net profit for their two Hainan facilities (1 million in total. So the net earning this year will be around $12 million USD. If CSJI gets their permit approval for their new clinker production for their new 1 million production plant, they will add about $7 milion net earning.
The best opportunity for CSGJ and CRJI is next year and I expect that the price will go way up becasue of cement shortage.
Raw material price also goes up. For example, coal price is up more than 10%, which is about 60-70% production cost for cement producers. But cement price is up more, about 50-70%.
I think that CRJI is going to report another Q of $4 million net earning in Q1.
I think that CSJI will report less net earning than CRJI becasue CRJI produces its own clinker. CSGJ only produces their own clinker in Longkou and Ganzhou plants. They don't produce their own clinker for their new 1 million ton plant. But they plan to do so later, and they are applying for the permit.
Yes, that is PE=1 for CSGJ this year.
I like cement plays such as CSGJ and CRJI this year and next year.
10K will be out before April 15. Q1/01 report will be out before May 15. Cement price has been up a lot, from 280 RMB per ton to 430-450 RMB per ton. CRJI reported over $4 million net earning in Q4 from breakeven in previous Qs. CSGJ gave a guidance of $7.5 million in fall last before cement price increase. I think that CSGJ can do $12 million net earning this year.
Hold your shares and you will be rewarded. I have been buying and added 140K shares at 0.40-0.45. New CFO should be hired shortly. The new 1 million ton production facility will be ramped up to full production within one month.
I think that CSGJ has a very good chance for $12 million net earninhg this year.
Cement industry in China is going to be very profitable busines staring from next year and 40% gross margin may be possible. This is becasue that no more new production line is allowed in Shanding and Hainan while demand continues growing. There will be shortage of cement starting from next year.
Nothing new from ENHD story. Jim was back from China about 2 week's ago. I talked to him, so did a few other posters on this board. My understand is that ENHD delisted from US becasue low valuation and they wanted to list in Shanghai or Hong Kong. That was Mr. Shi told Jim. That was what Mr. Shi told me just after delisting. Again, Mr. Shi refused to tell jim when and at what price he is going to buy shares back from us although he told us that was his plan. In October last year, about two months before delisting, Mr. Shi told Jim that they wanted to list on Nasdaq, raise money and expand production from 1 million hogs to 5 million hogs. That was what CFO told me as well about Nasdaq listing. Jim thought that Mr. Shi got bad advices from their lawyer. US board directors were not informed before delisting. Apparently, Mr.Shi is an asshole and his CFO is a bitch.
Nobody is happy except for Mr. Shi and ENHD management. But there is nothing else we can do except for complaining to SEC. Time wil tell, but chance is still there that sharholders may get their money back. But it is anyone's bet. I don't know any more than anyone else on this board.
By the way, they are selling their pork very well during Chinese new year holiday and they are still hiring people. But my money is dead in ENHD.
Good luck to eveyone here and hopefully we will get our money back.
Best Wishes!
Northern
Quarter earning (fiscal Q2) just out, revenue of $14.87 million and net earning of $2.534 or 7 cents per share. Another strong Q.
After fiscal Q2 earning report to be out by middle of April, we may see a big pop in share price.
The total number of shareholders: over 1500 according to IR:
"Hello Nelson,
The company has more than 1,500 shareholders as of a few months ago. And as previously announced they hired a professional search firm to conduct a search for a new CFO.
Please let me know if I can answer any more questions."
CRJI made 5 cents per share in fiscal Q1. I am confident that they will make 5 cents per sahre in fiscal Q2 based on cement price in December last year and January this year so far. I think that 15 cents or higher per share of earning for fiscal 2011 should be achievable.
CHNC is different. CHNC is not a cement producer. It purchases cement and then mix with others to turn into ready to use cement products. The rise in cement price would have negatively impact on CHNC gross margin.
When you got a right stock, you want to make big. I think that CSGJ has a very good chance for 500% appreciation when everything falls into place by the end of this year or early next year.
CRJI just reported a huge Q4 of $4.7 milion net earing. Now it is time for CSGJ to perform the same or even better.
The major reason why CRJI did so much better in Q4 was because that cement price jumped about 60-80% from August to December due to much better balance of supply and demand. Chinese government bans any further addition of cement production capacity in the provinces with average of 900 kg per year per person of cement capacity. I expect that CRJI should report the same results ion Q1/11 to be out by th middle of April this year.
CRJI has production capacity of 2 million tons and usually produce about 1.5 million tons. CSGJ has similiar production capacity of 1.5 million tons before the new addition of 1 million tons in December last year. CSGJ always did better than CRJI before due to tighter cost control and lower depreciation cost. With the new 1 million tons facility, CSGJ has about 2.5 million tons of capacity. I expect that CSGJ should do far better than CRJI.
I think that we both should make big money from CSGJ this and next year.
That is not a big deal, small money. But I have high hope for CSGJ, which should do even better.
I expect Q1/11 should be the same if not even better since their Q1 covers December, which enjoys the highest cement price.
Re: CRJI and CSGJ. If CRJI earning is any indication, CSGJ should do even better due the big rise of cement price in China and better balance of supply and demand.
Bob, RE: CRJI.OB, CRJI just report $4.7 million net earning for Q4/2010 or 5 cents per share. That is a huge jump compared to the previous Q. I know that you followed CRJI before. Take a look at the earning report.
Q4 earning just out, net earning $4.7 million USD or 5 cents per share for Q4.
CRJI Q4 earning just out, net earning of $4.7 million USD.
I will post CRJI results here. I also picked up 28K shares of CSGJ today at 0.541.
Regarding ENHD, I am waiting for Jim Bickel feed back from China. He is supposed to mett with Mr. Shi next week. I am still holding my shares.
CRJI.OB, another Chinese cement stock, is going to report quarterly earning (Q4) either today or early next week. I expect a blow out quarter. If it is, it should be a good indication for CSGJ due to the rise of cement price in China.
CSGJ Updated Presentation - Fall 2010
http://www.chinashuangjicement.com/ir.htm
CSGJ plans funds their production expansion through bank loans instead of equity financing. So there will be not dilution if they can get bank loans.b See the link:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Shuangji-Cement-Ltd-prnews-2907441450.html?x=0&.v=1
Another very positive news is that cement price was up a lot (40-100%. I think that the market has realized that, Their earning projections were issued in fall before the increase in cement price. I think that they can easily make $5 million net earing in Q4 alone based on price increase.
CRJI earing will be out in 2 weeks, which give good indication for CSGJ.
I think that you did.
CRJI Q1 earning out in 2 weeks. I am looking for $4 - 5 million net earning due big rise in cement price in China. Q2 earning report out by middle of April. I also think that CRJI may make $4-5 million USD net earning again. The stock should fly.
It is too early to tell. Let's wait for the feed back from those now in China in the next 2 weeks. Compared with other Chinese companies went dark due to difficulty in business, ENHD is different. They do not have business problem and the company is very profitable. It is a relatively large Chinese company.
Hi ycli, Do you think that we can initiate a lawsuit in Darlian, China if it does not work out for us in the future? This is a relatively large and very profitable company in China. If they want to list in Hongkong or Shanghai, they will need to settle with us at first. Another possibility is that they will leave this stock on the pink sheet for now and come back a few years' later to OTC or a major board after they get their house in order.
Obviously, Mr. Shi does not want shareholders to reach him. There are many trying to call him.
It is different people. The first time I talked to CFO last year, Ms Wang, she said that it was originally targeted for Nasdaq listing in October, and was dealyed to early this year. She is a bitch. I had never talked to Mr. Shi before until a few days ago. He repeatly said that the company would have to purchase shares back from us before they can list the company in Shanghai or Hongkong after I pressed him.