Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
PDGE Q1 release Part2
Looking at the balance sheet. A debt is down $1.5M over one quarter and payable are down $2M. This was down out of cash flow and paid in capital ($2M of warrants exercised I guess)
Good news is that interest payment should be down next quarter. The other good news is that it looks like they prepaid a lot of things and by taking down the payable they can cover up for a so so quarter if needed. Another thing is that they will not be fully taxed. They still have some loss carry forward on the Balance sheet.
Bottom line I am expecting good numbers. (IMO)
Also, they will announce the acquisition in about 3 weeks. We should see another bounce after that. Not sure if they will talk about it in the Q1 results. If they include the acquired company in the Q2 numbers we should be in good shape since they are more profitable than PDGE.
To put my money where my mouth is I bought 4000 more shares today.
BG
PDGE Q1 release part1
PDGE will release the numbers on the 14th or 15th according to the PR firm (not a big surprise since they have to by the 15th)
I had not looked at their numbers for some time so I took a look at the balance sheet and income statement for the last few quarters.
Q4 margin was up by a bunch. They made almost as much gross margin in Q4 with $25M of revenue as in Q2 (hurricane quarter)
Actually the operating income was higher in Q4 vs. Q2.
This resulted in earning being higher in Q4 vs. Q2 despite higher taxes (.25 vs. 0.03) and more shares outstanding.
The bad news is that there are more shares to be included next quarter (+10%)
I am having problem posting a long msg on PDGE any idea?
BG
PDGE update, (as posted on VMC)
According to the President of their PR firm the merger is still on. They are working on the final financing, part debt part equity but obviously no numbers yet. This will be very good for PDGE since the 2 companies have a lot of synergie. It is a "you clean it I rebuild it" strategy. They can share a lot of the sales force and reduce cost of operation. The "target " company is more profitable than PDGE so we wil have a positive impact to earning despite the dilution of equity. No date yet on the announcement but it should not be long. Quarter results should be in before the 15th.
I remain very confident in the company. Reagan is very conservative in his approach and that's just fine for me.
PDGE update,
According to the President of their PR firm the merger is still on. They are working on the final financing, part debt part equity but obviously no numbers yet. This will be very good for PDGE since the 2 companies have a lot of synergie. It is a "you clean it I rebuild it" strategy. They can share a lot of the sales force and reduce cost of operation. The "target " company is more profitable than PDGE so we wil have a positive impact to earning despite the dilution of equity. No date yet on the announcement but it should not be long. Quarter results should be in before the 15th.
I remain very confident in the company. Reagan is very conservative in his approach and that's just fine for me.
CHAR results
The only warning about CHAR is the fact that they do not seem to be able to get pipeline capacity allocation to carry the crude. 12k BPD does not do much good if you cannot transport it. Outside of that I realy like the stock, that's why it is a significant holding for me.
BG
Waiting for the 10K
I am still confused about the tax situation. Are they accruing in 2005 for a better 2006? Not a bad idea by the way.
One thing I noticed is that we now have $.80 per share of stockholder equity. Not bad at all.
One thing I did not see is any mention of the aquisition.
Can't wait to read the 10K
BG
Waiting for the 10K
I am still confused about the tax situation. Are they accruing in 2005 for a better 2006? Not a bad idea by the way.
One thing I notice is that we now have $.80 per share of stockholder equity. Not bad at all.
One thing I did not see is any mention of the aquisition.
Can't wait to read the 10K
BG
My top 9 holdings with + & -
PDGE ++
MAR ++
IWOV -
CHAR +
LU -
CPE +
EGY -
DOC +
VNUS +
BG
Bobwins, EGY
Thanks for the very clear and detailed answer. It looks like we will have a light Q1 but a great 2nd half of 2005 and a superb 2006. At the $4 level I added some more shares. If it goes down a bit from here it will not be much.
You are right about the management, they sounded very knowledgeable and very forthright the way they handled the questions. Another observation about the conference call is that the analystes asking the questions where quite good and they realy liked the company by the tone of the questions.
BG
Bobwins, EGY
Can you help on reading the chart on Page 25 of the Vaalco presentation
http://www.vaalco.com/PressRelease/Jan2005Presentation.pdf
For the first time Brent Monthly average for Q1 is different by 4$ compare to Etame. Etame average price is also lower than the price in Q4.
I understand that this is a contract issue but does that mean that the revenue for Q1 at equal Q4 production will be lower? I am confused.
On a good news I learned from the conference call replay that run rate production at the end of 06 will be 24000 bpd above the 2004 run rate!! Do you know if that is net to Vaalco?
CHAR, just added 3000 shares
This one looks better than EGY
BG
CHAR KKM
This is my understanding:
CHAR got $24 M from Nelson + 1M for expenses, They bought the 40% of KKM and sold it right back to Nelson for $24M.
No CHAR or NLG Share transaction.
The reason they did that is that CHAR had the right of first refusal for the shares being offered but no funds to buy them.
Nelson had the money and now it's all in the same family.
BG
CHAR discussion with CFO
I had a discussion today with Chaparral's CFO. I had some concerns since I had been unabled to contact them in the past but I now fill a lot better. He was quite busy but took the time to answer my questions the best he could. Obviously he could not tell me much since they are in the "quiet period" before the release of earnings but the tone of the conversation was good. He confirmed to me that they would publish their 10K on March 31st at the same time than Nelson (NLG). Nelson owns 60% of CHAR. I do not think that we will see any surprises on the 10K but you never know with year end accounting. Volume of production is up and price of oil was much higher than in Q3. Their biggest problem is getting space on the pipeline but with Nelson as a majority owner they should have more levrage. The KKM transaction was completed. They had the right to purchase the 40% of KKM they did not own They did it with funds supplied by Nelson and sold it to Nelson.
After this discussion I feel more confidend about the numbers I posted previously.
BG
Thanks for the posts.
One thing I picked up on your first post about the conference is that the margins for mold are much higher than from asbestos. This is very good news for the futur bottom line if mold revenue is increasing.
That would be nice and it would mean quite a quarter.
I looked at accumulated deficit over the last 4 quarters and it goes down pretty much in line with the income before tax.
So they need to make more than $1.8m to eliminate the accumulated deficit!!!
PDGE and taxes.
Could someone better than me at accounting take a look at their balance sheet and income statement. At the end of the last quarter they are still carrying $1.88M of accumulated deficit. Unless I am wrong (help) I do not see how they would be fully taxed until Q1 of the next fiscal year.
BG
Thanks Len
I will do some research and post there.
BG
Shale oil
About that for an idea: Take 10% of what we spend in Iraq or $30B and have a gov sponsored program to finance private companies and develop shale oil in the US. One can always dream.
Kiding apart, one idea to help all of us would be to create a Board just for research on finding good companies dealing in shale oil. There is no dought that with oil at $60 or $70 dollars a barrel and demand from India and China increasing the preasure on pricing there is a lot of money to be made in shale oil. Just think about the impact of the US being the largest producer of oil in the world. Wallmart would get in the oil business and and trade oil for cheap stuff made in China :)
Any takers?
BG
CHAR. Please check my math and logic
Q3 CHAR produced 8,290 Bopd
Q4 published numbers are 9,100 Bopd
Q3 average price $32.74
Q4 average for other small oil companies $38 (
Q3 CHAR revenue $23.3M
Q4 Calculated revenue at 9.8% prod. growth same ppbo $25.6M
Q4 Calculated revenue at 16% price incr. new production $29.7M
If the earning growth is equal to the revenue growth
Q3 earning 9c
Q4 calculated earning at 27.5% growth 11.5c
Calculated forward PE 4.7
Other items not included:
They reduced their transportation cost in Q4
[Positive]
If they sell some oil on the local market has they did in q2:
Very positive at $4.7 per barrel saving
Local unplanned fee/tax
Negative
Delta between production numbers and actual amount of oil sold
Could be negative or positive (they had 80,000 barrels excess production vs sold in Q3)
Local political stability
not sure
Now for Q1 2005
Looking at the drilling rate and assuming no cannibalization we should see Q1 with another 10% production increase and we all know where the price per barrel is. More than $38 per barrel!!!!
If you take the same calculation and an average of $45 per barrel the revenue and earnings are:
$39.2 and 15.2c or a forward PE of 3.5 !!!!!
Now is this better than CPE, TAG, EGY?
BG
CHAR Location
Any good idea why CHAR is located in White Plaine NY but their phone is redirected to the UK. I am trying to get a call back from them but without success.
BG
PDGE forecast.
I just adjusted my forecast with 2 items.
The tax 3.5c impact.
Not so sure anymore how much hurricane work was done Q3 vs Q4. 1c.
10c - 4.5c = 5 to 6c range
But you know it's only my guess. So many things can happen at year end such as under or over accrued expenses. Legal and consulting expenses for the acquisition you name it.
Historicly I could not get a revenue vs profit relationship for Q4.
2002 increased rev Q4 vs Q3 but decreased profit
2003 decreased rev Q4 vs Q3 and decreased profit but same ratio
2004 decreased rev Q4 vs Q3 but increased profit
2005 Q3 vs Q2 had better profit on decreased revenue
2005 Q4 If all the stars are lined up could be higher revenue than Q3 but same profit due to tax impact. If same revenue than you would get 5c to 6c profit
Next year I am still betting for 85 to 100M. The acquisition will only count for 3/4 of the year. They had great internal growth this year but it will be hard to repeat the same rate. It would be nice to be at $120M but most improbable.
2006 is another story. If the strategy is correct the synergy of both companies should have a major impact on revenue by broadening the product line.
I remain long on the company and may add some more before the end of the month.
My price target is $3.5 to $4 and we should see that before the end of the year.
BG
IPII and PDGE
No, I was not the one.
I took a look at the company. They are very different than PDGE in a sense that PDGE is a service company bidding on contracts. PDGE has a large variable work force and is really a job shop type company.
IPII is a manufacturer and distributor with a different business model. The only link is that if buildings are broken PDGE cleans it up and IPII supply the material for the rebuilding. Another word if we have another big hurricane season both will do well. I will try to get more info on IPII. I am now very interested in them considering they are moving to NASDAQ and their numbers look good.
I talked to Regan today and not surprisingly I got the same answer you did: 1st or 2nd week of April for the release of year end. Reading between the lines Q4 will be good but maybe not as good as I first guessed. My new prediction (not guidance :) ) is flat revenue compare to Q3 2004 and .05 to .06 after tax. Even with that we should see a good bounce on the stock.
Concerning the acquisition, they are still planning for Q1 closing. The acquired company is in the restoration business so it is very complementary to PDGE and the PDGE offices will be able to offer a new "product". The good news is that they apparently are more profitable than PDGE so 2005 will be even better than 2004. However there is one yellow flag on dilution.
BG
PDGE discussion.
For your info I did talk to somebody at the company but not Regan. I also talk to the PR Lady and she is the one that told me about March 31st anticipated release. I was surprized since last year it was April 24th. She was not so wrong since now it may be the 1st week of April.
The forecast was not from them. Sorry I use the wrong wording. I did not want to imply, even so I did, that the numbers were from them. You are correct they do not give guidance. I guess I was the one doing the guiding! Mea culpa. What I did was extrapolate from previous numbers and I also included the fact that the margin on hurricane related work must be higher than on contract bid work. Also if I recall hurricane work was only a small portion of Q3. On Oct. 4th the company expected another 5 to 10M additional revenue after completing the initial $3.5M. For 2005, add to that the $18M from the company they are planning to acquire and you are close to the $100M.
What I did not do (my mistake) was to take the tax situation into account.
What I am very curious to know is if we are going to get any dilution with the acquisition and how much they are bringing to the bottom line.
I am looking forward to their year end report. I have a very decent number of shares and I hope they do well.
BG
PDGE Presenting on Friday at 3:30
Here is the schedule.
http://www.valuerichonline.com/convention/exposchedule.htm
3:30 on Friday would not be my favorite spot but I understand they also have a booth.
Try to get better by Friday, it would be nice if you could give us a report on PDGE and also on some of the presenting companies.
Questions for PDGE if you make it there:
When is the acquisition going to close?
We know about the 18M revenue of the company they are buying but what do they bring to the bottom line?
How are they going to pay for it?
Any dilution?
Any guidance on revenue and profit for 2005?
Where do they see the company 5 years from now?
I know you would ask the same questions but since you are not feeling well I thought I would help :)
Thanks,
BG
Check my post on Value microcap
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5511541
I guess I am not the only one to guess the 100M .40c numbers
BG
CHAR. Thanks for the post.
The numbers look great with a Q3 at $22M (32.74 per barrel) The Q4 should be very good compare to Q3 due to the oil price and increased production. The average production was 9000 BPD vs 8200 BPD in Q3. The exit rate of production for 2004 is 9500 BPD.
I pickup some shares at 1.90 right after your post and will pickup more in the morning unless someone raises a big red flag.
By the way I traded BWLRF at break even to pay for it. You improved my day from a bad start.
Thanks
BG
Talked with PDGE people
Year end numbers will be out around March 31st.
No guidance, but everybody is feeling quite good there. $ .10 to .11 per share is possible.
They are working on the financing of the acquisition. They will most certainly go with a private placement to pay for it.
After the acquisition and assuming a dilution to pay for it. the run rate will be $100m revenue and $ .40 per share of earning. Not bad for a stock at $1.55.
Need input on ADNWE.
When looking at the companies Barron invested in (including my favorite PDGE) I ran into ADNWE. They are involved in IT software for car dealers worldwide. They have been buying companies over the last 2 years. Their numbers (growth, profitability) look very good. They have a major announcement on Wednesday in a conference call. They make a big deal out of it on their home page. http://www.autodatanetwork.com/
I guess they are going to discuss the acquisition of Automaster in Finland.
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/topix/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=200502040052...
I am going to buy some on Tuesday after selling my ELAB :)
I would appreciate any comments.
BG
Here is a new microcaps book. Do not know if it is any good.
BG
http://www.quantumbooks.com/Merchant2/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&Product_Code=0471478709&Categ...
Any idea when bwlrf will announce year end? Last year they did it may 21st 2 weeks after they announced their Q1 2004!
I noticed a strange thing. I see a large volume of bwlrf transactions on a "time & sales" screen but very little volume (29200) on a standard quote. Any clue?
By the way I bought some yesterday and again today. Thanks
Symbol on par.ol? can you help
BG
PDGE value stock
I am new at the investor hub boards so I would appreciate any comments you may have about my post number 160 on the PDGE board.
I am way up on it, the future is very bright. When do I cash in?
BG
A view from a long time investor in PDGE.
I have 50K of PDGE and I am a happy camper. My average is 50c a share! The reason I got into PDGE is simple: If you keep on making money somebody will notice. PE does not go bellow 4 very often. Barrons has very little impact if they sale or keep their shares, at least in the long term.
PDGE is service company in a sector that is doing well today. They employ 600 to 800 people most of them temps. Like any service company they have to reach critical mass before they can put some serious dollars at the bottom line. Their core costs are pretty much the same if they have 200 temps or 1000 temps. The variable portion of their cost structure is relatively small.
PDGE has been stuck for some time at the $40M range. Suddenly they greatly increased their revenue and that's very good news. Even so the margins remain low by the nature of the business the bottom line impact is dramatic.
Another good news, but this one is temporary, is the fact that the work being done right now is urgent work. Natural disasters (and I feel very sorry for the people suffering from it) create urgent repair needs. Urgent equal higher price equal higher margin.
Now for the price of the stock. I am not about to sell any shares because the stock is way undervalued on a forward basis.
A service company PE is usually around 10 to 15. It looks like PDGE could have a 40 to 60c a share in 2005 even after the Barron's dilution. Worst case make it 30c a share and 10 PE. That's $3.00 a share.
On a revenue per share the benchmark looks even better.
Getting out of the BB would also really help the stock.
My guess for end of fiscal year (01/31/06) Revenue $80M Earning 45c share $5
One note of concern is the price of the proposed aquisition. On a short term (12-18 month) we maybe impacted by restucturing cost and "oops cost". I would really like to know more about it.
Good luck to all of you and thanks to the management of PDGE that I found very responsive to shareholders questions.
BG