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wohoo awrcf made .94 EPS in 2006.. link...
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1026980/000095013608001379/file1.htm
and 2 more buy usmo (one for 30,000 shares)
probably I will continue to average down till it bounce,
as long as they don't cut the dividend more than 50%, I'm content with the stock
Stan
sorry to mention USMO. Fool.com cover USMO an hour ago
looks like they don't like it even with the 30% yield
I feel the same way but willing to gamble
not sure if I want to buy any more
but I'm not selling that I have
they are still expeting 70-90M free cash flows in 2008
but maybe in 3 years they will be in trouble if they can't replace the revenue stream from paging service.
uncle, I'm taking a beating on USMO.
but reading at the PR seems theya re doing the right thing (on the bad situation)
will listen to the earning call tonight
I haven't decided if I want to add more or not.
the dividend could be cut (and opt for stock buyback)
all the best for both of us.
Stan
--------
Consistent with its stated strategy, Kelly said USA Mobility generated sufficient cash flow in 2007 to again return capital to stockholders. The Company paid quarterly cash distributions of $0.65 per share and a special distribution of $1.00 per share in the second quarter, returning a total of $98.3 million in capital to stockholders during the year. “In addition,” Kelly noted, “our Board of Directors on February 13, 2008, declared a $0.65 per share quarterly cash distribution for stockholders of record as of February 25th, payable on March 13th. Similar to previous distributions, we expect the entire amount of the March 13th cash distribution to be paid as a return of capital.”
Kelly cautioned investors, however, that the rate at which the Company will continue to return capital to stockholders would depend largely on future operating results as well as various other business factors. “Additionally, in light of the deterioration in our stock price over the last nine months, as well as increased flexibility we have under Section 382, the Board of Directors is evaluating our strategy for returning capital to stockholders which may include periodic recurring cash distributions, special cash distributions, a stock repurchase program or a combination of these alternatives.”
He also pointed out that a regulatory decision made during 2007 eventually could have a significant impact on the Company’s network cost structure and capital allocation strategy. “Last October the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) issued an Order on Reconsideration (Back-Up Power Order) requiring large commercial mobile radio service (CMRS) providers, including USA Mobility, to have at least eight hours of back-up power at each transmission site to minimize communications outages during emergencies. We do not believe the Back-Up Power Order should apply to paging carriers for a variety of reasons, including the unique simulcast and high-power network architecture of paging. Accordingly, along with numerous other wireless providers and trade associations, we appealed the Back-Up Power Order in January to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals. We expect the appeal to be heard around mid-year.”
Thomas L. Schilling, chief operating officer and chief financial officer, said: “We continued to strengthen our financial position in 2007, principally through ongoing cost reduction initiatives including our network rationalization program and efforts to ‘right size’ our organization as demand for paging products remained slow. While subscriber disconnect rates were higher than forecast, however, we continued to generate strong cash flow during the year and are pleased with our overall financial results.”
--------
nice recap on MDF earning call Mat
IMO "important" milestone of 10,000 members is the new breakeven number (form the initially estimated of 6000 members)
I'm guessing it will be 10,000-12,000 range is the breakeven numbers
I am very encouraged to hear that the PSN is also growing.
also happy to see their cash balance increasing and ready for future growth (enough cash even if the HMO member is at 15,000.
will expect the 10,000 HMO member will be surpassed by the end of 2009 (and hopefully not a month later than that). and maybe starting 2010, they will be able to bring 20+ (and up to 30 cents) cents per share (vs 11 cents per share in 2007)
Stan
PS : the one caller trying to estimate stock price and ask for mike's opinion. he won't get anything from Mike on estimtes. Mike's take is (and will always be) that he will take care of the business and hopefully te market will take care of itself (the stock price)
wade, on mdf. i'm guessing hmo breakeven rate will be 10,000 (now they have 7000+) members and we won't see 10,000 members before the end of 2009
still ok though for me. 3 years delay compare with what they initially planned when they starter their hmo (and they estimate 6000 member is enough to breakeven and they are wrong on that)
slow but sure..
going forward I'm going to put PE between 12-15 (but no more than 15).
I'm guessing by 2010 they will earn .20 after tax per share and that will translate to $2.4 - $3 range (and they will have almost $1 in cash IMO by that time).. so that is not too bullish but I'll take $3.4-$4.50 (if I added the cash back in) by 2010
stan
i'm guessing hmo breakeven rate will be 10,000 members and we won't see 10,000 members before the end of 2009
still ok though
slow but sure..
stan
Also any thoughts on AINV and ACAS? are their dividend sustainable? thoughts?
TIA,
Stan
AOB and USMO earning this thursday. USMO, any thoughts?
I just picked up more USMO yesterday.
97% institutional holding.
no debt.
$2.5 in cash
65 cents quarterly dividend
last quarter earning 70 cents
stock price $10.4
I bought this one for their dividend (looks like the institution also buy for the dividend). the stock price has slide so much in the last 6 months or so.. I don't know where the bottom is but I thought I like the yield (and expect them to cut dividend maybe 30% and I'm still fine with the yield)
Stan
Hi all.. Thought I drop a line or two. AOB earning comiong up this thursdaya. MDF just posted earning which is good IMO.
I just bought more USMO yestereday for their dividend (65 cents quarterly dividend for a $10 stock. not bad). and their earning coming up this thursday.
What stocks are you guys following/buying recently.
I'm looking for more ideas.
Stan
ALL, MDF post strong Q4 and 2007 result. Revenue up 22%
I'm bullish again on this stock (though have always been long even when I'm bearish on this one)
not sure what the stock price do today. usually after earning they dropped but I won't be surprised if it goes up today after a strong result (even if the general market is down)
Milder flu in florida might help their net income to be higher.
Stan
-------------------------------------
Metropolitan Health Networks Reports 2007 Results of Operations
Tuesday March 4, 7:00 am ET
Net Income Improves to $5.9 Million on 22% Year over Year Revenue Growth
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Metropolitan Health Networks, Inc. (AMEX:MDF - News), a leading provider of healthcare services in Florida, today announced the financial results for their fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2007.
Total revenue for 2007 increased 22% to $277.6 million as compared to $228.2 million for 2006. Net income for the year amounted to $5.9 million or $0.12 per basic share and $0.11 per diluted share as compared to $473,000 or $0.01 per basic and diluted share in 2006. 2007 results included a segment profit before allocated overhead and income taxes for the Company’s core PSN business segment of $29.2 million and a segment loss before allocated overhead and income taxes for the Company’s Medicare Advantage HMO of $10.5 million. Corporate overhead totaled $9.3 million.
Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2007 increased 25% to $69.9 million as compared to $55.7 million for the same period of 2006. Net income for the quarter was $2.6 million or $0.05 per basic and diluted share as compared to a net loss of $2.7 million, or $0.05 per basic and diluted share for the same period in 2006. Fourth quarter 2007 results included a segment profit before allocated overhead and income taxes for the Company’s core PSN business of $7.9 million and a segment loss before allocated overhead and income taxes of $1.8 million for the HMO. Corporate overhead was $2.1 million in the quarter.
Year over year, the company reported a 67% increase in cash and equivalents to $38.7 million at December 31, 2007. Working capital increased by $9.7 million, or 49%, in 2007 to a total of $29.2 million at year-end. Shareholders’ equity improved from $30.9 million at December 31, 2006 to $38.3 million at December 31, 2007, and the company has no long-term debt.
Metropolitan served a total of 31,600 Medicare Advantage customers in December 2007 with 6,200 enrolled in the company’s HMO and 25,400 being served by the PSN segment. These numbers compare to total December 2006 customers of 29,400, with 3,800 and 25,600 customers for the HMO and PSN segments, respectively.
Michael Earley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Metropolitan Health Networks, commented, “2007 was a year of marked improvement in the financial results for Metropolitan. Our core PSN business, accounting for 80.2% of our 2007 revenues, continues to perform as well as it ever has in terms of profitability and cash flow. These results were impacted to a lesser extent in 2007 by improvement in the management of medical expenses and operational growth at METCARE Health Plans, Inc., our own Medicare Advantage HMO, and its AdvantageCaresm product. Our consolidated medical expense ratio was 86.7% in 2007, 85.2% in the PSN and 92.9% in the HMO. This represents an improvement in the PSN medical expense ratio of 3.1% and in the HMO of approximately 9.6% versus 2006. We believe that the changes undertaken during 2007 will continue to improve results as we move through 2008.”
Earley continued, “The December customer numbers noted above do not include the new members recruited during the open enrollment period that began on November 15, 2007. We served a total of 32,800 customers in January 2008, with 6,900 in our HMO and 25,900 in the PSN. Based on our current sales activity we anticipate that the April 1, 2008 enrollment in our HMO will reach approximately 7,500 customers. This projected enrollment takes into account an estimate of future disenrollments and cancellations that are caused by a variety of reasons. The current Medicare Advantage open enrollment extends through March 31, 2008.”
Looking to the future, Earley stated, “We continue to work very hard to maintain and to improve the performance of our core PSN business. We see opportunities to grow that business and are pursuing them. With regard to the HMO, we are continuing to pursue our strategy of taking this business and its products to Florida’s underserved non-urban markets, but we are aggressively challenging and changing our medical management strategies. In addition to medical expenses, we are working to reduce our overall cost structure and make our marketing approach more efficient. We look forward to reporting our progress throughout 2008
MDF post strong Q4 (0.05) and 2007 result (0.11) Revenue up 22%
I'm bullish again on this stock (though have always been long even when I'm bearish on this one)
not sure what the stock price do today. usually after earning they dropped but I won't be surprised if it goes up today after a strong result (even if the general market is down)
Milder flu in florida might help their net income to be higher.
Stan
-------------------------------------
Metropolitan Health Networks Reports 2007 Results of Operations
Tuesday March 4, 7:00 am ET
Net Income Improves to $5.9 Million on 22% Year over Year Revenue Growth
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Metropolitan Health Networks, Inc. (AMEX:MDF - News), a leading provider of healthcare services in Florida, today announced the financial results for their fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2007.
Total revenue for 2007 increased 22% to $277.6 million as compared to $228.2 million for 2006. Net income for the year amounted to $5.9 million or $0.12 per basic share and $0.11 per diluted share as compared to $473,000 or $0.01 per basic and diluted share in 2006. 2007 results included a segment profit before allocated overhead and income taxes for the Company’s core PSN business segment of $29.2 million and a segment loss before allocated overhead and income taxes for the Company’s Medicare Advantage HMO of $10.5 million. Corporate overhead totaled $9.3 million.
Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2007 increased 25% to $69.9 million as compared to $55.7 million for the same period of 2006. Net income for the quarter was $2.6 million or $0.05 per basic and diluted share as compared to a net loss of $2.7 million, or $0.05 per basic and diluted share for the same period in 2006. Fourth quarter 2007 results included a segment profit before allocated overhead and income taxes for the Company’s core PSN business of $7.9 million and a segment loss before allocated overhead and income taxes of $1.8 million for the HMO. Corporate overhead was $2.1 million in the quarter.
Year over year, the company reported a 67% increase in cash and equivalents to $38.7 million at December 31, 2007. Working capital increased by $9.7 million, or 49%, in 2007 to a total of $29.2 million at year-end. Shareholders’ equity improved from $30.9 million at December 31, 2006 to $38.3 million at December 31, 2007, and the company has no long-term debt.
Metropolitan served a total of 31,600 Medicare Advantage customers in December 2007 with 6,200 enrolled in the company’s HMO and 25,400 being served by the PSN segment. These numbers compare to total December 2006 customers of 29,400, with 3,800 and 25,600 customers for the HMO and PSN segments, respectively.
Michael Earley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Metropolitan Health Networks, commented, “2007 was a year of marked improvement in the financial results for Metropolitan. Our core PSN business, accounting for 80.2% of our 2007 revenues, continues to perform as well as it ever has in terms of profitability and cash flow. These results were impacted to a lesser extent in 2007 by improvement in the management of medical expenses and operational growth at METCARE Health Plans, Inc., our own Medicare Advantage HMO, and its AdvantageCaresm product. Our consolidated medical expense ratio was 86.7% in 2007, 85.2% in the PSN and 92.9% in the HMO. This represents an improvement in the PSN medical expense ratio of 3.1% and in the HMO of approximately 9.6% versus 2006. We believe that the changes undertaken during 2007 will continue to improve results as we move through 2008.”
Earley continued, “The December customer numbers noted above do not include the new members recruited during the open enrollment period that began on November 15, 2007. We served a total of 32,800 customers in January 2008, with 6,900 in our HMO and 25,900 in the PSN. Based on our current sales activity we anticipate that the April 1, 2008 enrollment in our HMO will reach approximately 7,500 customers. This projected enrollment takes into account an estimate of future disenrollments and cancellations that are caused by a variety of reasons. The current Medicare Advantage open enrollment extends through March 31, 2008.”
Looking to the future, Earley stated, “We continue to work very hard to maintain and to improve the performance of our core PSN business. We see opportunities to grow that business and are pursuing them. With regard to the HMO, we are continuing to pursue our strategy of taking this business and its products to Florida’s underserved non-urban markets, but we are aggressively challenging and changing our medical management strategies. In addition to medical expenses, we are working to reduce our overall cost structure and make our marketing approach more efficient. We look forward to reporting our progress throughout 2008
MDF post strong Q4 (0.05) and 2007 result (0.11) Revenue up 22%
I'm bullish again on this stock (though have always been long even when I'm bearish on this one)
not sure what the stock price do today. usually after earning they dropped but I won't be surprised if it goes up today after a strong result (even if the general market is down)
Milder flu in florida might help their net income to be higher.
Stan
-------------------------------------
Metropolitan Health Networks Reports 2007 Results of Operations
Tuesday March 4, 7:00 am ET
Net Income Improves to $5.9 Million on 22% Year over Year Revenue Growth
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Metropolitan Health Networks, Inc. (AMEX:MDF - News), a leading provider of healthcare services in Florida, today announced the financial results for their fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2007.
Total revenue for 2007 increased 22% to $277.6 million as compared to $228.2 million for 2006. Net income for the year amounted to $5.9 million or $0.12 per basic share and $0.11 per diluted share as compared to $473,000 or $0.01 per basic and diluted share in 2006. 2007 results included a segment profit before allocated overhead and income taxes for the Company’s core PSN business segment of $29.2 million and a segment loss before allocated overhead and income taxes for the Company’s Medicare Advantage HMO of $10.5 million. Corporate overhead totaled $9.3 million.
Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2007 increased 25% to $69.9 million as compared to $55.7 million for the same period of 2006. Net income for the quarter was $2.6 million or $0.05 per basic and diluted share as compared to a net loss of $2.7 million, or $0.05 per basic and diluted share for the same period in 2006. Fourth quarter 2007 results included a segment profit before allocated overhead and income taxes for the Company’s core PSN business of $7.9 million and a segment loss before allocated overhead and income taxes of $1.8 million for the HMO. Corporate overhead was $2.1 million in the quarter.
Year over year, the company reported a 67% increase in cash and equivalents to $38.7 million at December 31, 2007. Working capital increased by $9.7 million, or 49%, in 2007 to a total of $29.2 million at year-end. Shareholders’ equity improved from $30.9 million at December 31, 2006 to $38.3 million at December 31, 2007, and the company has no long-term debt.
Metropolitan served a total of 31,600 Medicare Advantage customers in December 2007 with 6,200 enrolled in the company’s HMO and 25,400 being served by the PSN segment. These numbers compare to total December 2006 customers of 29,400, with 3,800 and 25,600 customers for the HMO and PSN segments, respectively.
Michael Earley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Metropolitan Health Networks, commented, “2007 was a year of marked improvement in the financial results for Metropolitan. Our core PSN business, accounting for 80.2% of our 2007 revenues, continues to perform as well as it ever has in terms of profitability and cash flow. These results were impacted to a lesser extent in 2007 by improvement in the management of medical expenses and operational growth at METCARE Health Plans, Inc., our own Medicare Advantage HMO, and its AdvantageCaresm product. Our consolidated medical expense ratio was 86.7% in 2007, 85.2% in the PSN and 92.9% in the HMO. This represents an improvement in the PSN medical expense ratio of 3.1% and in the HMO of approximately 9.6% versus 2006. We believe that the changes undertaken during 2007 will continue to improve results as we move through 2008.”
Earley continued, “The December customer numbers noted above do not include the new members recruited during the open enrollment period that began on November 15, 2007. We served a total of 32,800 customers in January 2008, with 6,900 in our HMO and 25,900 in the PSN. Based on our current sales activity we anticipate that the April 1, 2008 enrollment in our HMO will reach approximately 7,500 customers. This projected enrollment takes into account an estimate of future disenrollments and cancellations that are caused by a variety of reasons. The current Medicare Advantage open enrollment extends through March 31, 2008.”
Looking to the future, Earley stated, “We continue to work very hard to maintain and to improve the performance of our core PSN business. We see opportunities to grow that business and are pursuing them. With regard to the HMO, we are continuing to pursue our strategy of taking this business and its products to Florida’s underserved non-urban markets, but we are aggressively challenging and changing our medical management strategies. In addition to medical expenses, we are working to reduce our overall cost structure and make our marketing approach more efficient. We look forward to reporting our progress throughout 2008
It did go above $10.. and I'm glad that it did..
can't wait to see the quarterly result and the annual result...
still waiting for the rally due to the Beijing Olympic effect.. maybe it won't happen..
not sure if it will go above $12 in short term as the CEO seems to think $12 is a good price to sell (though he only sell 1M shares)
also discouraging to see NTRI and HANS are dropping (which shows if AOB slow down their growth, the stock might take a hit as well but I don't think we need to worry for slow down for at least another 1-2 years)
nonetheless, long and strong.. (since $1)..
JMHO
Stan
Anyone know when Q4 result will came out?
TIA
Stan
Can't wait to see their Q4 and Year 2007 earning and estimate for 2008 (if any change).
This stock will stay around here ($9-$12) for a while (until they can prove that they can continue to grow 30% for a couple more years.
Seems it's hard to break $12 (which was the price where the CEO sell 1M shares)
I'm long and won't sell till we hit $15-$20.
I saw the call option for 2009 (less than 2 years away) and quite surprised to see a lot of open interest in the $20 and $25 strike price. it would be awesome to see $20-$25 by 2009.
btw, been here since $1 as well. Didn't buy anymore on the way up but didn't sell much either.. still long and strong..
Stan
thanks bbotc.. on gold.. my parents said that they haven't seen $800 since the 1980s and ask me if this is a good opportunity to sell.. my opinion (before reading your post) was this will go to $900, and maybe momentum might bring it to $1000 so I said, maybe sell a bit now but don't sell much as I see it go to $900 and $1000 and it's hard for me to think that it will drop back to $700 or lower in the next 3-5 years. but anything above $1,000 should be crazy because the cost to mine the gold should be somewhere $280-$350 per ounce if I remember correctly.. if the price is way above $1000 supply will increase.. there will be more mine being worked on... could that be a true statement?
on AUY and NG.. I don't understand the valuation of te company.. is it related to the reserve that they predict that they have?
Is it better to buy te mining company? or the company that just tracks gold price... like companies that buy and sell real gold.. so we take risk on gold price vs, mining , operation, and reserve valuation... profit seems nice tough from the mining activity...
Also, How does it differ from investing in oil miners/producers?
Tia...
Stan
MSGi, I think we need that 1/2 % cut. There is no doubt in my mind that we are going to see recession and inflation (basically stagflation) in the next 12-18 months..
maybe the GDP output won't drop 2 quarters in a row but the situation (of cosumer and consumer) will feels like it.. delinquency and default will continue to increase in the next couple monts..
JMHO..
Stan
OT: Friday night, what are we doing here.. we ought to go out and have fun... I'm so glad that it's the weekend btw..
Can't wait for the Fed to cut 1/2 point though...
:)
Stan
Mat, I will be watching too. MDF that is.
we've been waiting for so long and I thought themoment was last november but they have to add more counties that makes the breakeven point even longer. supposednly the additional county increase the potential maximum member count but I think it's a have to be done move.. i.e. the previous counties don't have enough members (or they can;t get enough member to get breakeven).. in any case.. it's done.. they are in these counties (10-12 counties).. they got to go all out and take as much member as they can.. 2008 is the year (and I'm tired to keep repeating every year that this year is the year.. :) )
it's been 5 long years (or almost 5 years , I lost track)... (not the HMO build but since I bought their shares)
Stan
How on earth a copmany like HSOA from making a lot of profit and lots of contract backlog at record level sink so much to the level that they might have to file bankruptcy?
Is it problem with cash flows?
or is it problem with integrity at the first place?
are those contract real?
are they really profitable?
is stocklemon/citroen research might actually be on the right track?
anyway, I made a conclusion not to touch any stocks that stock lemon has covered. I think there is a big chance that stock lemon is partly right in most of their research.
All the best for those who are still long on HSOA.
I unload all , and also I unload all NMKT shares the last couple days. I thnk that one is also closest to fraud (even closer to fraud than ETLT IMO)
have a good weekend all y'all!
Stan
I had MDF on my PSL8 too Mat. but I agree with you, if MDF did hit $3 sometime this year I will be very happy even if I do badly in PSL 8.. I have a lot of MDF shares and have been holding for a long time and never sell when it touch $3 several times in the last of 3 years because I believe when they can establish their HMO business they are worth much more than $3...
PSL 7 kind of frustrating cause I did bad both on PSL 7 and actual portfolio..
let's hope for the best for MDF> looks like healthcare is going to be in favor in 2008 but I hate to see MDF goes up just for that sake (I want their bottom line to follow as well)
My target for their HMO breakeven run rate is the end of this year with 8000-9000 members. If they can't get breakeven with 8000+ members then it's going to be hard to make good profit in the next 2-3 years cause I don't think they will hit 10,000 members until probably the end of 2009 the earliest... they seem to be able to get about 2000 members per year.. that's pretty much it...
my other pick CAGC in PSL 8 also up 20% today.. maybe I wil calculate my PSL 8 gain today and record it and see if I ened up negative or perform badly in PSL 8, I can try to adjust my return as I picked my PSL 8 earlier this week. just to cheer me up I guess but I knwo everyone else is also starting at the same time so relatively it's all cancel out each other. just a bummer to see that it start rallying right before the PSL starts
Stan
PS: I've been enjoying MDF stock going up from 1.6 to 2.3 in the last couple of months.. quite encouraging actually to see it go aove $2 cause I beleive the PSL alone worth $1.8.. and for a long time the HMO business is valued at negative dollar... which I don't blame the market since theoritically it is hard to put any positive value to a business that keeps burning million of dollars each year... and it seems the more HMO member they signed up the loss widens as well and not narrowing.. They definitely got to do something.. on another not I'm hoping for a mild flu season in florida..
What is going on with SUWN. up 30% today. while I'm happy with my real portfolio but not happy that I have SUWN in my PSL 8.
why is SUWN moving up so much the last couple days. any thoughts?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SUWN.OB&t=5d
Len, thanks for the link on the oil contest.
Gold $900. should be $1000+ sometime later this year. JMHO.
so who won the oil price guessing contest? and what was the ending price?
Stan
what a bad day to start PSL8 (monday)..
SUWN up 10% today and 20%+ the last couple days
MDF up 10% the last couple days
CAGC up 20-30% the last couple days
I guess this proves that market timing is not easy (if not impossible altogether)
Stan
SGZH, I think they really want to get better with the company (and exchange)
one very encouraging item that I see..
"Further, the total number of authorized shares of common stock of the Company was decreased from 1,000,000,000 to 100,000,000 shares."
many doesn't decrease the authorized shares when they do reverse split so they can further dilute existing shareholder which is not a good thing IMO (not always bad but mostly bad)
PSL 8 should have started this morning. just a random/non-sense thought :)
Stan
Hi gang.. shmo.. dog.. fbi... stenz.. ceo.. karl.. bueno..
Happy New Year!
Nice to see PRFT up. congrats on prft gain...
Go Packers! Go Favre! :)
Stan
SSK, on ETLT, CXTI and topic of growth.
On ETLT. Fair enough. Something smells definielte hence the PE = 3 and P/B < 1 and P/"restricted" Cash < 1
also on CXTI, that is definitely a hge red flag that CFO resigned. now thinking back, I think the fact that the CFO said he moved to china north acquisition corp was a smoke screen. if he has just resign without saying he is leaving to be a cfo in another public company I would probably have sold my shares at a very nice gain at that point. but live and learn. I didn't sell and hold till the end (but now have sold everything.. all of them under $1.. most of them under $.50 actually)
SGZI show growth but then again how can we be so sure whether it is real or fabricated. which also makes me think that maybe ETLT is not fraud because if they want fraud why don't they fabricate growth and profit and then they can get the stock high and then sell the shares... so a lot of it is psychology as well.. and no one really know what is going on except the management themselves who is playing the cards... we are playing blind if we have to discount on what most of them said.. (cash position, profit, contract etc)
AOB is surely overvalued at $12 and that is why the CEO dumps 1M shares at that price but in a couple years (I would say 3 years) I think $12-$15 is a reasonable price for it and not overvalued anymore (at that time they will earn $1+ epr share per year IMO).. now they are at .60 per share.. they will grow 30% on earning but they keep diluting shares so for EPS probably they will grow 20% or so.. JMHO..
On paying premium for growth, I think that is one of the hardest thing to judge because you are paying those premium with risk.. which is the risk of them not able to meet their growth.. and also for many companies that has track of high growth for the last couple years once they get big enough the growth will definitely slow down (just a law of large number. surely some company will take longer before growth slow down like GOOG for example) and when they hit that first bump, the stock will always drop a lot (like cut in half etc.. happens to every fast growing companies even the top companies like SBUX, NTRI, HANS etc). and it's funny to see that the market/street is always surprised to see the first time those ocmpanies missed their earning... many sets unrealistic expectation..
I've seen companies try to manage stock price by managing growth so they continue to grow 10% for many years (let's say 5-6 years) then they slam the result and they are down 40-50% on the revenue.. then afterwards they try to increase 10% per year again for several more years...
stock market surely is not easy... but it's fun though...
sorry that I ramble too much..
all the best for 2008 and hope I can do decent in PSL 8..
Go Packers.. Go Favre..!
Stan
KIK. sorry about that. having not posted anything for a while here I kind of forget about the rules. my bad. (I mean I started posting again a couple days ago adfter several weeks of not posting)
Thanks for the reminder. I should not have responded to the INBG post (as it belong to ZCC board)
Stan
SSK on ETLT and CXTI, I agree to most of your points but respectfully disagree on a few of your points (and I believe it's just a matter of personal preference/option)...
Not all business can grow fast rapidly all the time.. of course it's nice to have business grows.. solid cash cow business is sometime is not bad if the PE is very low... anyway in the case of CXTI they have been increasing profit and revenue and backlog also at record level so I'm not sure what news that trigger your sell recommendation when it hits $6 (and afterwards I believe it continue to go up to $7 and $8. but I admit that I was so dumb or greedy not even take any profit off a table after a 10 bagger.. lesson learned.)
ETLT also fit with a lot of the criteria that you mentioned.. growing profit year to year though might not be as fast as your criteria/want to be... balance sheet is solid (in fact P/cash is less than 1).. (whether the management is lying or not is a different questions) It will be absurd to say (though you are not implying it) that if ETLT stock price right now is $1 or $2, all of sudden their business becomes less risky (less chance of fraud).. I know the market is smart enough to know which one the bad apple is but theya re not always correct. AOB was one point at $1 for many years, and SGZI was under 15 cents for a long time as well..
SGZI has exactly similar attributes when I purchased it first time under 10 cents.. (price / book less than 1, profit on annual basis etc).. it is true that afterwards they manage to grow sales and profit hence the stock price is at what it is today.
My point is that if management want to lie (with CXTI as example), they can lie about the growing profit (and it's true it doesn't have to be china.. take HSOA for example..)
I agree however on your statement that some companies gives feeling of confidence to shareholder which is improtant and ETLT is not doing that for sure.. and that also lead me to a conclusion that I have to stop buying ETLT (been doing this for a while now) no matter how cheap it will get. the next step is of course when and if I should start selling slowly. I do have a lot of ETLT shares (130,000+ shares) and well aware that it can go to $0 anytime (just like cxti). now to think about it again, it's pretty scary to lose all that money that I invested in ETLT. I always tell people not to play with fire if they don't want to get burned and I need to apply that advice to myself. so far what keeps me in the stock is greed and the feeling of "what if" theya re telling the truth and they indeed make those money that they said they are making and eventually will increase to $1 or $2.. as they should be.. if everything they said is true.
JMHO
Stan
PS: Can AOB considered as a quality china company? how about LDK or PTR (though both are not microcap at all)?
Nowadays, Chinese microcap seems to go for PE of 5 (definitely less than 10) unless they are premium type of company which might have PE of 10-20 (my definition of premium is when many US institutions are doing DD and backing them up and hold a lot of their shares, for example AOB). One of the reason is that it's so easy for them to commit fraud or run away… and theoritically speaking there is nothing much we can do (besides useless class action lawsuit)… case in point cxti.. They run away and there is so many class action lawsuit but I don't think anyone from cxti going to show up to the court and try to defend why they take shareholder money and dissapear.. I'm not saying that all of them are fraud but it's not that easy to separate the good and bad apple.
Sometime it makes me wonder why chinese companies want to/care to be listed in US otcbb versus just list in China stock market. Which increase the suspicion at the first place (maybe it is easier to walk away from otcbb than a local exchange)
ETLT is another one with PE of less than 5 and P/Book less than 1a nd P/cash also less than one.. We'll find out in a year or two whether this is a fraud as well or not…
Same way for SGZI.. But the last 2 quarters definitely has been very encouraging for SGZI.. Hope those result are sustainable...
Stan
PS: one takeaway that I get form these experience in 2007 is ot to be afraid to take some profit on chinese microcaps when the stock goes up even when the PE hasn't gone to 10 or 20 yet.
OT: "Spam king" indicted in stock fraud scheme
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A federal grand jury in Detroit has indicted a Michigan man dubbed the "spam king," and 10 others, in an international illegal bulk e-mailing and stock fraud scheme, the U.S. Justice Department said on Thursday.
The 41-count indictment charges Alan Ralsky, 52, of West Bloomfield, Michigan, his son-in-law, and nine others with operating an spamming operation that focused on running a stock "pump and dump" scheme.
"Today's charges seek to knock out one of the largest illegal spamming and fraud operations in the country, an international scheme to make money by manipulating stock prices through illegal spam e-mail promotions," U.S. Attorney Stephen Murphy said in a statement.
Under the scheme, the group sent spam touting thinly traded Chinese penny stocks, drove up their stock price, and reaped profits by selling the stock at artificially inflated prices, the statement said.
The Detroit Free Press said prosecutors described Ralsky as one of the most prolific spammers in the United States.
According to the indictment, the Ralsky's group used various illegal methods in order to maximize the amount of spam that evaded spam-blocking devices and tricked recipients into opening, and acting on, the advertisements in the spam.
The indictment followed a three-year investigation. Investigators estimate that those charged earned approximately $3 million during the summer of 2005 alone as a result of their illegal spamming activities.
Three people have been arrested, including Ralsky's son-in-law Scott Bradley and How Wai John Hui, a dual national of Canada and Hong Kong. The others, including a Russian national, still are being sought, the Justice Department said.
The Detroit News reported that Ralsky was believed to be in Europe and quoted his attorney, Philip Kushner, as saying Ralsky would voluntarily surrender to federal authorities in the next few days.
"Mr. Ralsky intends to fight these charges, which are brought under a new federal statute that has not been interpreted by the courts," Kushner told the paper.
(Reporting by Joanne Allen, editing by Jackie Frank)
researcher59, CMG food is decent, fresh and rightly priced (above regular fast food restaurant but below most sit in restaurant such as applebees or fridays)
the stock surely is too hot/high right now but watch out for their earning and momentum rally..
I think even they grow their sales and revenue 100% within the next 3 years.. I think their stock should worth right where it is now.. but obviouly the market will give them stock price of $200+ by that time and they will only crash if their growth started to slow down which will eventually happen for sure... (just like HANS and NTRI. or crash like PFCB or PNRA).. but I don't think that will happen in the next 1-2 years.. they are still growing nicely now (but I surely wouldn't want to go long on their stock now. way too high, so shorting it looks like a better idea than going long).
JMHO
Stan
thanks nsom for the pm. on CMG, though not my favorite food, CMG seems to tase better and a lot fresher compare to other mexican place (like taco bell etc). and whenever I passed that restaurant near where I live, that place is always packed.
The food aren't expensice either, but more expensive than taco bell hence I'm guessing they make good money (as their cost probably not too much more than other fast food restaurant)
Their menu is simple and not too many variation which help them to operate in lean manner. I wonder if they are franchise based or all CMG restaurant owned by the HQ/corporation.
I don't remember how long they have in business but I wonder if after a while people will get tired with their food. as of now, I can't imagine people getting tired of their food.
The stock seems getting way too hot though (but I acknowledge that there are so many place that they can still open and make money). tough call.
Stan
Thanks littlefish. I hope 2008 will be better and 2009 will be a lot better...
Beijing Olympic should help some of the China stocks.. some chinese companies should be positively impacted for longer term period.. I am hoping this because I hold a lot of china stocks.. but majority of my stocks are still USA companies..
Stan
Matt, I'm confident that you will do great..
I'm so glad when I hear your stories and I think you have come a long way since you started working less than a year ago..
It is very crucial to start successfully in investing to build confidence as well as building capital.. it's probably good to learn (and loss some) in the beginning to avoid major losses (for stupid mistakes) but that is what we (VMC folks/community) are here for.. to learn from each other (both success and failure)... so sometime you don't have to learn it the hard way...
Keep it up bud...
Stan
PS: looks like I'm the only one here that finish 2007 with negative annual return... not very encouraging but someone has to be at the bottom.. plus I learn so much the last 12 months..
Dart, sorry for the late reply. I've been busy (though te holiday time are a bit slower which is nice). I will let you know when I head to Busch/Wiliamsburg again.
Hope ETLT will turn out to be real company making real good profit. Still holding and still hoping. Still can't understand why it has been may years for ETLT trading below cash value, and still confused why even at this rate insiders (eomplyees and consultant) are selling year in year out... which frustrates me a bit but I'm willing to see how this play out...
Finally sold all my CXTI and booked all the loss this year which will help offset the gain that I got from AQNT. Still can't belive letting lots of gain on CXTI turn to be losses..
What other stocks are you still holding/bullish on?
still holding AOB?
All right, got to ead out now.. I'm already late for the New year's Party...!
All the best,
Stan
Are we talking about booked gain or total gain? (either way those are awesome gain)
And not that it matter for me as I have both losses for the booked portion and for the overall portfolio. I haven't got a chance to calculate the percentage but in terms of absolute dollars, they are a lot and it will take some time for me to shake them off.
Congrats everyone that manage to get those awesome gain.. In 2007, any gain is a good gain in my opinion...
Happy New Year everyone!
Heading out to party now.. (and forget the 2007 stock market :) still a lot to be thankful about though...)
Stan
LJ, on ETLT money, no one know what the real story is. Sometime ETLT says they ave th emoney reserved. some other time they said their cash can't be used to pay obligation outside USA (including this lawsuit in USA), and some other time they said the govt has make the rule more lenient and they will be able to use some of its cash outside china. so that's the story. it depends on what you want to believe.
also ETLT think the lawsuit has no merit and they don't want to just pay because they are being bullied. (just like USA doesn't negotiate with the bad guys). or maybe if they give in now, there might be other lawsuit coming up and abuse them/their cash.
Or they could possibly be lying about the cash (and all the profits they reported) hence they have to continue to prolong this lawsuit as long as possible.
so uncertainty is the current situation.
Stan