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tim, this year will not be the year for mdf. next year is. this year open enrollment period is done and they added 2000 HMO members or so.. and hope next year they get another 2000 member and make the total member to be 10,000. and if they can't make the HMO breakeven by then, they will lose creditibily. they changed the breakeven number estimate from 6000 to 10000 members and I don't think it will cut it if they said now the breakeven point is 12,500 or 15,00.
hope they will still be able to post like 10-12 cents EPS total in 2008.
2009 they probably will have a chance to increase it to 12-14 cents per share
Stan
Thanks for the update Bob. That's what I thought (that you are trimming down MDF and selling it out finally)
congrats all the booked gain. I know you bought at under .60 (probably .30s)
I'm still holding all my shares.. kind of tired waiting as well. 1 final year.. next year that will be it. if the HMO can't be breakeven by summer 2009 (after next year open enrollment period), I'm done with them.
Thanks for popping up over there Bob. any input much appreciated.
that guy name is skibum btw.
Stan
Bob, people are looking for you in yahoo MDF board.
looking for guidance that is (after a bad Q1 earning result by MDF)
Stan
thanks bueno..
I'm in for the long haul.. hope it won't go below $10 again..
I'm also glad that USMO is bouncing.. been adding as it dropped and kind of scare me on how it continue to drop (prior today)
I'll check xfml
Stan
aob and usmo doing well today
jsut a tip. don't buy at the peak.
aob has a history of running up so much from $8 (like to $12 or $14) and then dropped again to under $10
I always hope that they will never go below $10 again but never know when that will happen..
I guess what I mean this stock is very volatile and if you decide you want to be long term, you need to be able to handle the day to day fluctuation.. sometime it can drop 5-10% with no new news and we jsut ahve to ignore it
Stan
Thanks Nelson. I've been in AOB for many years now. It's nice to see them going back above $10..
usuallya fter earnign the stock dropped.. but not today I guess...
I'm fine performing bad in PSL if my real portfolio can do well (I was planning to pick USMO and AOB in my psl but it popped today, but I might still pick them anyway)
Stan
congrats foodcourt. I've been in AOB for many years now.
welcome aboard.
Stan
aob post 50% rev increase. earning call is now. not sure if the stock will be up today but i'm in for the long term and this stock will be in my next psl pick too
i like what i see with the aob growth. they could be earning $1 in a year or two and still grow 20-30%
stan
aob post 50% rev increase. earning call is now. not sure if the stock will be up today but i'm in for the long term and this stock will be in my next psl pick too
i like what i see with the aob growth. they could be earning $1 in a year or two and still grow 20-30%
stan
aob post 50% rev increase. earning call is now. not sure if the stock will be up today but i'm in for the long term and this stock will be in my next psl pick too
i like what i see with the aob growth. they could be earning $1 in a year or two and still grow 20-30%
stan
USMO Q108 excluding write down income is $10.4 million, or $0.38
They are probably trying to clean the house with the big goodwill writedown, which is a good thing I guess. this loss definitely will generate more tax shelter (tax loss carryforward, tax deffered asset)
Not sure how the 188M goodwill is generated in their balance sheet at the first place (if anyone can shed some lights that will be appreciated). is it resulted from the merger of arch wireless and metrocall?
Time warner write down $50B at one point 5 years ago from lowering the value of their AOL acquisition
I'm holding USMO btw. 25 cents is a lot less than .65 but we are kidding ourself if we expect them to maintain .65 quarterly dividend (after the result in Q42007 and the expectation to build a power backup for their network)
I haven't read the earning report in very detail but quite encouraged by the headline and the first two paragraphs
JMHO,
Stan
USMO Q108 excluding write down income is $10.4 million, or $0.38
They are probably trying to clean the house with the big goodwill writedown, which is a good thing I guess. this loss definitely will generate more tax shelter (tax loss carryforward, tax deffered asset)
Not sure how the 188M goodwill is generated in their balance sheet at the first place (if anyone can shed some lights that will be appreciated). is it resulted from the merger of arch wireless and metrocall?
Time warner write down $50B at one point 5 years ago from lowering the value of their AOL acquisition
I'm holding USMO btw. 25 cents is a lot less than .65 but we are kidding ourself if we expect them to maintain .65 quarterly dividend (after the result in Q42008 and the expectation to build a power backup for their network)
I haven't read the earning report in very detail but quite encouraged by the headline and the first two paragraphs
JMHO,
Stan
excluding write down income is $10.4 million, or $0.38
They are probably trying to clean the house with the big goodwill writedown, which is a good thing I guess. this loss definitely will generate more tax shelter (tax loss carryforward, tax deffered asset)
Not sure how the 188M goodwill is generated in their balance sheet at the first place (if anyone can shed some lights that will be appreciated). is it resulted from the merger of arch wireless and metrocall?
Time warner write down $50B at one point 5 years ago from lowering the value of their AOL acquisition
I'm holding USMO btw. 25 cents is a lot less than .65 but we are kidding ourself if we expect them to maintain .65 quarterly dividend (after the result in Q42008 and the expectation to build a power backup for their network)
I haven't read the earning report in very detail but quite encouraged by the headline and the first two paragraphs
JMHO,
Stan
MDF post $338K loss in Q108 and 7400 HMO member.
Somewhat dissapointing result but not surprising.
On the positive side:
- total customer increased 2,700 to 33,000 (mainly form HMO increase)
- HMO losses dropped to 2.7M from 3.9M. and the 2.7M loss includes 1.4M advertising expense. should be able to break even within 12 months or so IMO (after the next open enrollment period)
- Cash up to 40.7M from 38.7M with still 0 debt
- HMO MER dropped to 90.5% from 95.9%
- They expected PSN MER to improve as we move into the year
On a negative side:
- Overall MER increase to 90% from 88.4%, due to increased hospital admissions and higher than normal catastrophic cases
- decline in investment earning due to decline in financial markets (will be interesting on what kind of investment do they have, besides the basic short term FDIC insured type of investment, if they have any. I am hoping they don't)
- MDF post $338K loss in Q108 vs $228K gain last year
- HMO membership takes a long time to reach 10,000 members (now at 7,400)
Not sure what the stock price will do today with this mixed result but hoping within 12 months or so they have a clear picture whether they can be profitable in overall (and breakeven in HMO). Going into this year, PSN performance definitly need to improve from Q108 performance.
Stan
MDF post $338K loss in Q108 and 7400 HMO member.
Somewhat dissapointing result but not surprising.
On the positive side:
- total customer increased 2,700 to 33,000 (mainly form HMO increase)
- HMO losses dropped to 2.7M from 3.9M. and the 2.7M loss includes 1.4M advertising expense. should be able to break even within 12 months or so IMO (after the next open enrollment period)
- Cash up to 40.7M from 38.7M with still 0 debt
- HMO MER dropped to 90.5% from 95.9%
- They expected PSN MER to improve as we move into the year
On a negative side:
- Overall MER increase to 90% from 88.4%, due to increased hospital admissions and higher than normal catastrophic cases
- decline in investment earning due to decline in financial markets (will be interesting on what kind of investment do they have, besides the basic short term FDIC insured type of investment, if they have any. I am hoping they don't)
- MDF post $338K loss in Q108 vs $228K gain last year
- HMO membership takes a long time to reach 10,000 members (now at 7,400)
Not sure what the stock price will do today with this mixed result but hoping within 12 months or so they have a clear picture whether they can be profitable in overall (and breakeven in HMO). Going into this year, PSN performance definitly need to improve from Q108 performance.
Stan
thanks for the info Dart. I understand that and excited about it and that is one of the reason why I have been buying this stock every month (not anymore though) and still hold a lot of this stock..
the problem is , it has been in the same situation for so many years (i.e. net asset is more than the stock price) and I am thinking that this is all is just a big fraud (more subtle type though). none of the reliable institution are touching them so on so forth.. they need to establish credibility.. I don't even know if the farms indeed exist (or the cash that they claim they have in the balance sheet). they keep acquiring companies/business though, and maybe in 2-3 years those cash might be gone..
I think if they really do have the cash.. it is a no brainer to buy back the shares (unless they are sure the business will die).. or at least pay some dividend with all those cash reserve.. jmho though...
why no one has done an LBO on them now? it just doesn't make sense, does it? can we (you and me) , do LBO on ETLT?
anyway, I'm still sitting on 130,000+ shares of ETLT.. and the big wheel is still spinning now (for several years already).. we'll see when it stopped whether this will become like CXTI or AOB or somewhere in the middle (I'm fine with somewhere in the middle)
hope all is well with you.. I saw your other post the other day (a while back actually) but haven't get a chance to respond.. sorry for that..
Stan
ssk.. I apologize for my ignorance
I guess I was frustrated that my picks are all doing bad and forget all the important rules
:)
have a good weekend all y'all!
Stan
SSK, Please trade suwn for cagc
Thanks
Stan
PE and PEG is hard to predict stock price movement in short term, DCF is probably better overall but have problem to predict short term movement.
both also has another drawback, which is that there are assumption made in the equation (like the growth rate and how long it will be able to grow on that rate)
about when to sell is (unless you are a momentum player then you don't sell no matter how ridiculous the price is until the mmomentum is lost then you sell) if you think the company has reached it's potential maximum (either gaining full market share or won't be able to carve competitor's business) and won't grow much in the next 3-4 years (later on you can re buy the shares again) due to the slow/no growth of the industry/business they are in
jmho.. and based on my observation on several stocks..
yes, I'm somewhat dissapointed in many microcap stocks that i hold long term (3-5 years).. for example AOB dropped from the high of $14 to $8 (almost 50% drop) but I'm still glad that I am still holding and bought at $1 many years ago (cause I believe AOB is worth $20+ in 2-3 years).. but I do admit that I should have sold some or all at $12-$14 because at that time the valuation is rich and I know it probably will drop and won't go above $14 for 2-3 years (and I can rebuy back if it dropped)... it's easier said than done I guess...
Stan
ALJJ reminded me of PYTM.
large debt and shareholder deficit but profitable and high revenue.. but unfortunately for PYTM (the verdict is still out there though), after several quarters of profit they become unprofitable again and the stock tanks..
when will ALJJ start reporting to SEC and maybe lsited in otcbb..
also in Q2 they only publish revenue and not profit (unlike in Q1 where they published 4M+ profit in the pr)
I wonder if this means they are not profitable in q2
JMHO
Stan
heheh Shmo... hope I get to finish in the top whatever..
though I think my guess is as good (or bad) as anyone guess
what stock are you buying/holding these days shmo..
I'm still holding the same junks btw (i.e. etlt, aob, hqs, mdf, usmo, itex, suwn, hte, bac etc)..
Stan
I'm a bean counter.. what can I say.. :)
Can't win that damn (any of the) PSL contest, so maybe I thought I'll try to win this consolation prize... jk...
Thanks Shmo...
Stan
boss.. what a nice game... kansas did it...
after beating oklahoma, davidson, wisconsin, carolina and today memphis..
9 points down with 2 minutes to go... great come back.. great 3pt shot to tie the game.. bad FT misses by Memphis..
a fun game to watch..
Stan
thought I'd post this here too (my thoughts on ETLT as a whole)
if you are also long, all the best for the bost of us.
----------------
nowayout, you are welcome.
just a warning though. PE has always been low (and book value has always been higher than the stock price) and it can get lower (stock can drift back to below to .40 the next couple weeks)
if you want to commit for long term , maybe that is fine, but if you just want quick gain, my suggestion will be book the gain if it goes up again in the next couple days.
JMHO..
Stan
PS: I'm in for the long term (130,000+ shares, to show that I am not trying to bash the stock) and have been holding (accumulating) for many years but many of ETLT investors are frustrated with the stock price performance the last couple quarters.
nowayout, you are welcome.
just a warning though. PE has always been low (and book value has always been higher than the stock price) and it can get lower (stock can drift back to below to .40 the next couple weeks)
if you want to commit for long term , maybe that is fine, but if you just want quick gain, my suggestion will be book the gain if it goes up again in the next couple days.
JMHO..
Stan
PS: I'm in for the long term (130,000+ shares, to show that I am not trying to bash the stock) and have been holding (accumulating) for many years but many of ETLT investors are frustrated with the stock price performance the last couple quarters.
Finally, I'm in the list. at #18. Not too shabby.
Stan
hotdog, they posted .14 EPS last night for 2007 . that's the good news that propel the stock upwards today. (book value $1.4 per share and PE still under 4 even after the increase today)
Stan
dart.. glad to see etlt go up a lot today.. but still wonder why there is a wall or seemingly unlimited supply at .50...
until it crosses $1 , I will always wonder whether ETLT is just a fraud..
I'll let you know when I go to Williamsburg... will definitely try to visit you...
Why are you still doing stocks at 91.. hobby.. or necessary..
if etlt goes to 1 or 2 dollar, I'll take you to the Busch garden (jk)...
Good to see you still around though... It's been a while (years) since we started buying this stock..
As of now , I'm lock and loaded with etlt.. 130,000+ shares... Though I'm happy for teh rally today, I'm definitely not going to add anymore...
Stan
I don't know much about this one.. maybe STV (digital cable monopoly in China. that probably will broadcast those events)
my thought for short term burst due to olympic are hotel, restaurants, internet/portal with olympic related content, energy drinks, etc. but I have no ticker symbol to recommend.
for long term maybe AOB (even after the onlympic is over)
Stan
yeah.. and I'm boycotting the Olympics... :)
I think ETLT will go up soon as it post great Q4 and year 2007 result
hope the stock will go up...
I'm curious why you think it will drop to 15-20 cents..
TIA
Stan
ETLT earning is out and I think it's good.
The stock has been cheap like forever.. not sure when or if it will ever go up
but with PE under 3 and P/book value and price/cash under 1, it seems like a bargain to me
probably even too good to be true..
Cheers all,
Stan
ETLT earning is finally out.. Trailing PE under 3
Eternal Technologies Group, Inc. Announces Year-End Results
Tuesday April 1, 5:18 pm ET
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Eternal Technologies Group, Inc. (OTCBB:ETLT - News): 2007 Summary
Revenues increased 23.9%
Earnings increased 38.3%
Earnings per share increased 27.3%
Stockholders Equity increased 29.56% to $1.40 per share
Eternal Technologies Group, Inc. (OTCBB:ETLT - News) today reported record revenues and record earnings for the year-ended December 31, 2007. Revenues for the year-ended December 31, 2007 increased by $6,872,615 or 23.9% to $35,590,718 from $28,718,103 for the year-ended December 31, 2006. Cost of sales for the year-ended December 1, 2007 increased by 5,157,066 or 27.2% to $24,143,968 from $18,986,902 for the year-ended December 31, 2006. As a result our gross profit increased by $1,715,549 to $11,446,750 for the year-ended December 31, 2007 from $9,731,201 for the year-ended December 31, 2006.
Operating expenses including depreciation, research and development expense, increased by $1,427,646 or 30.2% to 6,161,083 for the year-ended December 31, 2007 from $4,733,437 for the year-ended December 31, 2006. Other income increased by $1,627,839 to $2,067,535 for the year-ended December 31, 2007 from $439,696 for the prior year.
Income tax expenses increased by $46,053 to $601,845 for the year-ended December 31, 2007 from $555,792 for the prior year.
As a result of the foregoing, the Company’s earnings increased by $1,869,689 or 38.3% to $6,751,357 for the current year from $4,881,668 for the prior year. Per share earnings increased $.03 per share or 27.3% to $.14 per share for the year-ended December 31, 2007 from $.11 for the year-ended December 31, 2006.
For the year-ended December 31, 2007 total stockholders equity increased by 16,616,139 or 29.56% to 72,822,262 from $56,206,123 as of December 31, 2006. Book Value per share as of December 31, 2007 was approximately $1.40 per share ($1.397).
For 2008, the Company anticipates additional earning growth as the 2007 acquisition begins to contribute to the Company’s earnings.
we won't know whether it is a joke or not.. we'll find out when len posted again...
that is funny.. but those companies that still hasn't post their 10K are not funny... :)
bummer... I'm feeling just len now... that I've had it.. but about those companies who continue to post late financials..
Stan
PS: I still hasn't seen my name in the VMC coundown.. hope I'm not # 13
Credit Card AOR. this is OT but I think related to the thread.
The moves that you guys described is called AOR (App-O-Rama) and it has been very popular the last couple years and in some ways hurting the credit card business profit.
Thankfully (from the bank perspective), there aren't enough people yet that done this mainly probbaly because of the hassle or the risk when someone forget paying the minimum payment on time that they will ended up getting fee or high interest which will cost the people money..
Some people manage to make $10,000 to $20,000 when the interest rate was still at 5%+.
I never did it because it is not worth it for me (not enough money. i.e. not everyone will make that much) and the credit score will get hurt until the loan are paid off.
A lot of students (college) were doing it to add income and I thought it is smart move (as they have time to manage the minimum payment and also they probably won't need their credit score to get a low rate mortgage etc for a while)
some variation are people who ended up investing the money in stock instead of the mney market but generally were not advised (some called them brave while some other called them stupid to risk the originally risk free plan)
more info about AOR. or type AOR in search engine and see many people who did that (plan, strategize and execute and provide updates and discuss it with fellow other AORers)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/App-o-rama
Stan
AOB is climbing up nicely after the huge drop on earning day earlier this month.. maybe some news/update will come out soon..
USMO is still flat..
Stan
VMC poster countdown is interesting.
Len rank will probably increase as he posted on this topic every day (maybe not by coincidence.. jk len...:) )
anyway I didn't see my name in the 24 to 328 list which makes me wonder if I'm in the top 23.. I don't think I posted that much (that I would make it to the top 23, especially I haven't post that much the last couple months)
anyway, it's nice to see VMC is nearing it's 100,000 post
I almost lose faith on microcap as many of my microcap is dropping in value the last year (and I have started buying larger caps and dividend paying stocks as well lately)
Stan
thoughts on USMO? I recently bought 1000 shares banking on high dividend yield and some insider buying activity. the technicals also seems to improve (though I'm a fundamental and long term investor)
can't wait till I get the quarterly dividend (I set DRIP)
thinking to add more if it dipped to $6.
also we're just days away before many microcaps earnings is due (ETLT etc)
Stan
thanks for the update on mdf mike. I've been holding for so long.. I haven't added or sell for a while.. I haven't add because I already have a lot of mdf stocks.
I agree with what you said.. the drop is probably because HUM, WLP etc.. but those companies hasn't dropped at all when the market crash (in fact they continue to reach new high) so the recent drop isn't that bad
I also like health care. i started picking up bargain in financials as well for long term (like 4-5 years) hold.
hope mdf hmo become profitable (before PSN profit dropped which might happen in the next 3-4 years as margin is pressured from above/HUM)
also mdf stock moved in high volume due to the insitution holding. when it dropped recently I'm guessing some institution booked profit buying at the 1.8-1.9 and now just booked profit at 2.3 or so cause they know it will take a while before hmo become profitable (way longer that mike earley predicted when he started the hmo). and it takes them forever to hit 10,000 members and I'm still not confident that when they hit 10,000 members they will be profitable.. but they better be...
still enjoying the cash balance that they have... reduce the risk of liquidity crisis..
Stan