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Thannk you SSK and Len for hosting and managing the PSL6 (Even when SSK is sick)
You guys did amazing job.
Hope you feel better by now SSK
Stan
PS: and oh.. congrats to the PSL 6 winner niles and tmcal (for tournament winner), and skidos (rookie PSL champ), and team 16.
CXTI didn't post earning. I'm aiming for last (better last than second last). I was in second to last last week.
Reminded me of Taladega nights quote.. if you ain't first.. you're last... lol..
Diversification definitely helps. with 6 stocks (well 3 for me because CXTI is doubled down. 33% of portfolio in PSL), if one goes to $0.. the impact is still huge.. but with 15-20 stocks it gets better (I usually hold 17-20 stocks in my porfolio though the top 5 make up more than 50% of my porfolio)
Stan
Last stretch. All the best everyone. and have a good long weekend!
Stan
Thanks twoedgesword for the explanation
we'll see what happen.
bottom line is:
1. How much are they going to get for each shares that they sell. It ain't going to be $10+ as stated in the filing. I'm guessing it will be about $7-$8 range.
2. what they are going to use the money that they will raise for. (which will help us determine whether EPS will drop or not)
Stan
Lj, some people mentioned that they talked to the CEO and the CEO said that they are not ready to publish the earning report and he also mentioned that the previous CFO is not contactable anymore. not a good sign. I'm still holding (or I should say, gambling)
the 5 day grace period seems to be standard. everyone who are going to delay the file will file that 5 day extension regardless theya re going to make it in that 5 days or not
what makes me sick is that JLF asset management continue to sell even at $2.77 (and took loss). and they still have 4.7M shares left. I don't know what their strategy is.
Next time I heard the CFO left, I will just sell right away. I'm guessing whatever restatement that they might do, they will blame it to the previous CFO. and oh btw, the COO also left a month ago. Surprised to see that the CEO hasn't leave yet.
Long and strong..
Stan
looks like I'm set for the bottom. CXTI didn't post their earning and will not post earning before the end of this week.
I hope they will post some good earning next week and give a consolation prize for me (which is a nice gain for my real portfolio which has 21,000 shares of CXTI). So far it has been painful holding CXTI.
Never thought I would be at the bottom of the pack here. but I guess never say never...
Stan
wow. 4.5M dilution (PP), that's equivalent of 90M shares before the 20 to 1 reverse split. I'm wondering why I haven't sell this stock yet
---------------------------
WASHINGTON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - HQ Sustainable Maritime Industries Inc. (HQS.A: Quote, Profile, Research) filed with regulators on Tuesday to sell up to 4.5 million shares of common stock.
The aquatic product producer and processor said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that Roth Capital Partners and Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. would underwrite the offering.
It will use the proceeds from the offering to construct a processing plant, complete an organic feed mill and for general corporate purposes
SSK, I didn't know you were sick (I didn't read this board for a while now)
I do hope you will feel better soon. I'll be praying for you and your health
Stan
Thanks for sharing your situation Bob. I'm confident that you will be doing just fine. you have a long track record and I've seen you make great calls on the market (on individual stocks I mean. e.g. mdf tga bsic aspn egy and so on so forth)
regular monthly income is definitely nice (you are talking about dividend right? or bond coupon/preferred shares dividend?)
I know we have a special leader and a special group here (VMCers). I wonder how many groups out there that is trying to do similar things that we are doing.
I hope I can also continue to be healthy and able to do what I enjoy (just like you).. i.e. investing..(I'm doing that on the side now so that's fine.. as I don't have the skills to short term trade.. so my day job helps preventing me from getting an itchy finger to click that buy/sell button too often.)
Stan
Bob thanks for the additional info on HSA. I should really check the HSA out. my employer currently provide the full coverage (though I still have to pay a portion each month for the insurance.) even then recently my company offer the healthfund option (I think that might be similar to HSA) and the premium is cheaper (and each year they added the allowance that you haven't use) but it ocnly cover a certain percentage of the cost and being risk averse on medical related issue, I ignore the new option and stick with the old one which is the conventional more expensive and cover everything type (we used Aetna btw). I play a lot of sports (and contact sport too like basketball, football etc) so sometime I have to visit the orthopaedic or get some xray or splint for some fractured this or that. so far I haven't needed a surgery. Thank God for that (was very close one time for my fractured finger and I choose to just let it healed without surgery and my orthopedist say fine). I guess working for a big company has some benefit to it (health benefit and 401K). my health insurance has no deductible. just co pays, how nice is that. I wish I can have that even when I leave the company and go on my own.
Wow. your parents both 90+ years old.. and still healthy.. that is good.. you do have some good and healthy genes.. I think you should feel lucky for that...
I don't like the concept of life insurance. I don't think it's trust issues but my common sense tells me when you have a dollar number on your back (life) then your risk (to die) actually gets higher. Not sure if there is any truth to it but that is just how I feel.
I'll keep in mind about the term life insurance when I have kids (young kids) . I know I can't be selfish and have no insurance. because I feel when I die then I don't worry about anything else right.. maybe when and if I have my own kid my thoughts process will change...
I'm sure you can pay all VMC dues if we liquidate some of your big protfolio...
so more a personal question if you don't mind answering. Do you do this investing for fun? or you need it to make sure your retirement fund isn't going to get depleted. or maybe for both (fun and necessity as well)
Stan
CXTI, to be fair, without JLF support/accumulation CXTI wasn't really a $3+ either.. so if JLF wants to sell some now, taht is still ok (so far they have unload less than 10% of their filing)
There goes another $100K+ down the drain (20,000 shares down from $8 to $2.6, and 1000 shares down from $4.15 to $2.6)
Can't catcha break (well MDF, AOB and today ETLT did give me a break so I can't complain too much).
SUWN is a mystery to me.. they keep promising big orders but revenue only up marginally.. not sure what to make on that one.. maybe I should start selling some more...
Stan
Mat, I kind of feel the same way. I did say in yahoo board that I agree with your assessment. that we think based on the information available it seems that MDF is being reactive and Q2 will be breakeven at best if not losing money. so I'm positively surprised. I did mention that I still have small hope that they will still post 2-3 cents and that the move is proactive. I'm glad that my small hope turns out to be reality.
And yes, MDF is no Yankees. MDF doesn't have all the luxury (money and star players) that the Yankees has (and for Yankees not to win is a big dissapointment for them, the money that they spend, and the yankees fans)
MDF cash balance isn't too bad though. though soon if they continue to grow their HMO, all the cash will be restricted for HMO pupose.
I'm still hopeful that MDF will grow to become a big/bigger company. Maybe they are not going to be as big as HUM which iw 100 times larger than MDF (but then again HUM several years ago was 1/10 smaller (in terms of market cap) than today. Maybe MDF can be as big as Healthspring (HS) in the next 7-10 years which has market cap 10 times of MDF.
Stan
Thanks littlefish for the tips.
I'll check those stocks that you mentioned.
Last week weren't too bad for me. AOB and MDF kind of helped me end up positive for the week which is nice. many of my other microcap holding (CXTI, ETLT etc) hasn't reported yet so this week will be interesting for me regardless what teh general market is doing..
Stan
PS: Do you own AHM or LEND at any given point of time?
LJ, CXTI is low price now for several reasons:
- CFO departure
- JLF selling the shares (at a loss which is surprising to me). but without JLF the stock wouldn't go above $5 at the first place IMO.
- the filing of S-3 (this one I don't understand why but in many boards people are talking about it. it seems to indicate more delay/setback in Nasdaq listing application)
- concern on more dilution (as they get new project which needs to be funded)
- revenue for Q2 only $15M which is not in line with the huge backlog that we have seen and the consant new contract that they signed.
- Profit for Q2 is only $5M (due to low revenue as well)
- concern that the whole thing is just smoke and mirrors (that cxti is fraud)
FWIW, I added 1000 more shares at $4.15 (now I hold 21,000 shares but the first 20,000 shares were bought at average of $1 so I'm still up now and I have no urgency to sell now. I know I'm stupid for not selling when it goes to $8 but I was expecting al ot more from CXTI in the future and didn't anticipate the CFO departure which started the slide). I don't plan to add anymore and I regretted a bit adding at $4.15 (even before it dropped below $4). It did go up to $4.87 after I bought at $4.15 and I was thinking just to trade that extra 1,000 but as usual, it ended up becoming a long term investment (I could have booked $600-$700 for that 1000 shares for holding just 2-3 days). bummer..
JMHO.
STan
nsom, that makes sense, and I've been there too (and have the stock goes to $0 too... such as global crossing, spectrasite, metawave etc. not fun as it is costly.. but I learned a lot from it..)
OT: Bob and Yield. Thanks for the info on Health Insurance
I'll check the HSA plan and the blue cross blue shield plan. the HSA plan/concept seems very interesting (vs just paying the insurance company. what's the catch btw/what situation will make HSA the worse option compare to regular health insurance). btw Healthcare cost is so expensive. I guess being healthy (and have a healthy lifestyle) is a good investment.
I currently
another OT for Bob (or others), does any of you have any life insurance (term/life) or annuities. Do you see any benefit on those products?
TIA
Stan
Thanks Stockhawk, good guess of 3 cents Q2 EPS.
I hope your patience will be paid off. I know that 4 years is a long time alraedy but I can start feeling that the HMO is having more than 50% chance to be successful as of Q2 result (IMO). Just barely tipped the scale on the positive side.
I've been long with MDF (not in and out though) for about the same time as you are.
Keep the faith and be well!
Stan
Learn from other's mistake 2: American Health Choice
Seems solid and convincing, but I guess we can't judge the book "only" by its cover.
==================================================
AHC Mission Statement
America’s Health Choice Medical Plans, Inc. will provide the community with a choice in the delivery of affordable and accessible medical services for senior citizens and all other Medicare eligibles.
As a managed care orginization focused on wellness and disease prevention, America’s Health Choice Medical Plans, Inc. is committed to delivering quality medical health care through the coordination of properly planned, managed and utilized medical services. With respect, compassion, and consideration, our physicians and clinicians will deliver appropriate health care to our patients, providing for all of their health care needs. We are dedicated to working in partnership with our patients, recognizing and supporting each other as a “total person” with integrated needs of mind, body and spirit.
==============================================
Americas Health Choice Medical Plans, Inc. is a Florida Medicare Advantage plan that was formed in July 2000. We are the longest serving Medicare Advantage HMO in the Treasure Coast.
America’s Health Choice Medical Plans, Inc. emphasizes prevention, early disease detection, and treatment. Currently we serve more than 11,000 Medicare Advantage (HMO) members. Our network includes 14 hospitals, 40 primary care physicians and 1085 specialists in Broward, Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Okeechobee, and Palm Beach Counties We also offer a state wide prescription drug plan.
America's Health Choice is focused on providing access to affordable, quality healthcare for those eligible for medicare. As a community leader our work includes ongoing outreach programs that endeavor to improve the lives of not just our members but the community at large. As an employer we foster the belief that continued training and education of our employees is the hallmark of a successful Managed Care Organization
Learn from other's mistake: American Health Choice
=============================================
Official letter from CMS
http://www.ahcmp.net/SecureHorizons.pdf
=============================================
Article about AHC contract being terminated (first one to be terminated)
Medicare Terminates Medicare Advantage Company’s Contract
By Larry Lipman | Friday, July 20, 2007, 11:22 AM
Warning of an “immediate and serious threat to the health of their members,” Medicare has terminated its contract with a Vero Beach managed care company that covered 12,000 beneficiaries in a seven county area in Central and South Florida.
The termination of the contract with American Health Choice Medical Plan Inc., went into affect at midnight and was announced this morning by Abby Block, director of the Center for Beneficiary Choices, which oversees the private managed care Medicare Advantage program.
Beneficiaries who had been enrolled in the AHC plan were immediately transferred to a similar managed care plan offered by SecureHorizons, a subsidiary of UnitedHealthcare.
All health benefits previously covered by the ACH plan will be covered by the SecureHorizons plan, Block said, and beneficiaries should not encounter any gaps in their health care.
“We think the beneficiaries are in very good shape,” Block said.
Beneficiaries were mailed an overnight letter from SecureHorizons informing them of the change, Block said. In addition, the company plans to hold a series of town hall meetings with beneficiaries next week.
Among the health concerns raised by Medicare investigators who conducted a surprise inspection a few weeks ago were “serious delays” in making referrals for treatment, mistakes in medication, failure to provide beneficiaries with access to specialists and substandard medical care provided in the company-run clinics, Block said.
Jason Mankiewicz, a company spokesman, said it would be releasing a statement later today but declined to comment.
AHC received a contract from Medicare under the previous Medicare Plus Choice program in July 2000 but soon became a concern for the agency. The company received unfavorable audits in 2004 and 2005, but Block said the problems encountered were primarily related to financial, rather than health care, issues.
In April, Medicare officials informed the company that it would not be allowed to continue participating in the Medicare Advantage program next year. That decision had been under administrative appeal.
Since then, Block said Medicare had received reports from people working for the company that raised alarms. The agency dispatched field investigators a few weeks ago who made an unannounced visit to the company to review its records.
Medicare is not aware that any beneficiaries suffered serious health problems as a result of the company’s action, Block said.
Medicare’s decision to terminate the company’s contract for health care reasons cannot be appealed, but the company could seek to overturn the agency’s action in federal court. As of this morning, Block said the company had not indicated it would seek court action.
Block said Medicare is continuing to investigate the company’s financial affairs, but would not say whether any criminal charges are anticipated.
SecureHorizons was chosen because it covers the area covered by AHC and its benefits — including a zero premium — were closest to those provided by AHC, Block said.
Beneficiaries have the option of switching to another company or returning to the traditional Medicare program within 90 days.
Of the roughly 12,000 AHC beneficiaries, 640 were enrolled in an AHC program that provided a partial rebate of Medicare Part B premiums and will no longer receive that benefit.
AHC is the first company Medicare has terminated for health care concerns since the Medicare Advantage program was created as part of the 2003 Medicare Modernization Act.
but I also want to point out that when te stock drop 50%, that still hurts.
btw, anyone know anyone that get ulcer from worrying about the stock market?
Stan
nice MDF post Rmiwa, I share your optimism on MDF. I've been long for along time and my optimism with MDF goes up and down together with their net income and HMO losses (and not the stock price).
A couple more good/positive quarters (and 7000+ HMO member after next open enrollment period), then the uncertainty will be reduced and then the HMO will be close to break even (self-supporting business)
and yes, it will be nice if they can get 500-1000 of 7000 AHC members
Stan
PS: Thanks for the PM and you are welcome Mat.
nsom, thanks for the tips. I think I really learn a lot (as I can see myself going down that path if you don't tell me about it). such as keep adding big position (which means not diversifying enough) etc.. and usually when I add to already big position it means I'm averaging down..
btw, how do you let gains slide and also have the stock go nearly to $0. were there no signs at all?
Recently MDF and AOB post decent result which helps my portfolio and my confidence, but at the same time, i try to stay humble and continue to learn and do research... I finally conlcuded (after many years of investing) that it is not easy investing in the market... (but I like it so I'm going to continue to do it in both bull and bear market)
Stan
AOB is one of my top holding. I like AOB management a lot. They grow the company that they purchase really fast.
HSPL from 4M sales to 16m sales annually in just over 12 months
GLP from 10M sales to 20M annual sales in less than a year (and now about a year at $25M annual sales run rate)
Boke (newest acquisition) with $12M sales seems high when bought at $40M but we know AOB management will grow Boke's sales (they have very good products)
Stan
fish. I am surprised that CPNE dropped that much after that preliminary earning report.
INRB seems climbing up near it's 52 week high.
Thanks for the wishes (MDF and AOB help me gain some of my confidence back). I guess I just have to keep going/trying. So far I haven't change my strategy (long term fundamental value) and I hope I don't have to change my strategy.
Stan
Yielddude, I hope you will make it just fine (worst case is you just have to get the full time day job back).
Talk with other full time trader (like Mike etc) and learn from each other.
keep us posted on how it goes.
Stan
PS: what health care program/insurance do you use btw (if you don't mind telling me), and how much does it cost (and the deductible)
I'm glad to see that MDF is proactive in a lot of their action/strategy and trying to make the best of what they get.
I agree with what Mat said. Nice earning call recap by the way. I'm getting more comfortable with MDF progress and direction. I'm gaining more confident that Mike Earley can actually can and will lead MDF to be a successful company.
Some of the things that I like from the Q2 result and the earning call:
- Profit. (I promised to be dancing on my way back home if they post profit and I will. i.e. from the office building to the parking lot)
- Cash balance continue to increase (and will be kept in reserve vs doing dividend or buyback). notice how the cash locked/restricted for HMO grow so fast (more than double to $17.8M and more than half of their total cash). that is another thing that I wanted to point out. controlled growth is good (I don't want to see them issue more shares to comply with the reserve requirement)
- MER is improving (looks like they know what it takes to lower MER)
- Payment per member is still increasing (nice revenue growth and give MDF more room to work with and to give nice and competitive plans)
- Addition of another county for the HMO
- Selling 2 non profitable (and declining member base) location
- Using $900K to buy one new location which already has 1000+ members. and if there are more opportunity like this present itself, MDF might use some of their cash to buy them.
- Some of AHC member might sign up with MDF (350 and counting)
- HUM's careplus division might/will give MDF members to service (hopefully solving the PSN declining memebrship issue)
- 6000-7000 HMO members could be breakeven but they are aiming for 10,000 members to have a good and sustainable business (they are aiming higher than just the minimum and they feel this is achievable. I just hope they didn't mean to say with 10,000 they will be just about break even)
- Still no guidance (and I support that) but I sense more enthusiasm and confidence from the management in this earning call (jmho on this one).
I don't have many things that I dislike (that haven't been mentioned or addressed by MDF themselves so I'll save this dislike list for other time)
I still don't think they will be successful overnight (and they never claim to be so), but all the progress indicates that they are moving towards the right way to success.
Two quarters doesn't indicate a trend, but do it again for another quarter or two and that will be 4 quarters and that might be closer to a trend :) just kidding.. I know that for Q4 and Q1 cost will increase (both marketing cost and utilization).
All the best for all longs.
And last but not least.. Congratulation MDF team for delivering a great and comfortable second quarter result!
Be Well,
Stan
yielde, thanks for sharing your personal experience and journey... (when you mean to go out on your own, doesn't mean you become a full time trader like Mike right? it means you open your own business, right?)
If I never lost a couple hundred grand myself I wouldn't believe how one can manage to lose $400K in the stock market.
Keep doing good on your budgeting. a dollar saved is more than a dollar earned.
I hope things will work out for you well. Keep me posted.
and yeah, I'll try to keep my head/chin up and try to keep posting (still not easy for me during the tough days, as I feel very embarrased)
Stan
littlefishl, northern, littlejohn
------------------------------------------------
Fish, thanks for the message and nice to know that I'm not alone (and sad at the same time to know that you are takign a beating too).
------------------------------------------------
northern,
$600K is a lot of money. Thanks for the confidence and encouragement that I can too come back just like you are.
btw, Did you end up making money in GEXA? Did you sell your FPL shares? I unload my FPL shares slowly after they converted my GEXA shares and now totally out of FPL. I thought FPL will never grow fast and I was wrong. They did grow nicely the last 52 weeks. I did make money on GEXA although not as much as I thought I will be making had they not sell it to FPL (but maybe it's a blessing in disguise. maybe we don't know that they have issue and is best to just sell to FPL).
---------------------------------------------------
lj,
everyone seems to have made different type of mistakes (some selle alry, some sell too late, some never buy etc) but hopefully we all learned from the experience.
I think it's the same feeling by the way.. losing paper gain and losing the opportunity is similar feeling by they way (and they are both bad feeling).. and I know that cause I've done that a lot too and that's one of the reason I hold long term and sell only if I feel absolutely sure that they are way/super overvalued and have no good chance to even grow higher than that in the next 4-5 years or so.. (though sometime the result is selling too late or not selling at all)
Thanks for the confident that I will come back right up on my feet soon (starting with MDF today.. maybe AOB will follow next/tomorrow)
Bob and Len, I'll try to come back slowly. And let me start with my take on MDF (that I also posted on yahoo board), since they just post earning earlier and also MDF is one of my holdings that I felt very passionate about.
Also thanks everyone for the messages (both vmc post and PMs) of encouragement. It's been a tough couple months but reading your messages and experiences help me to get up faster (and not feel down for too long). basically knowing that I'm not alone and that there is still light at the end of a tunnel helps a lot.
Stan
----------------------------------
I'm glad to see that MDF is proactive in a lot of their action/strategy and trying to make the best of what they get.
I agree with what Mat said. Nice earning call recap by the way. I'm getting more comfortable with MDF progress and direction. I'm gaining more confident that Mike Earley can actually can and will lead MDF to be a successful company.
Some of the things that I like from the Q2 result and the earning call:
- Profit. (I promised to be dancing on my way back home if they post profit and I will. i.e. from the office building to the parking lot)
- Cash balance continue to increase (and will be kept in reserve vs doing dividend or buyback). notice how the cash locked/restricted for HMO grow so fast (more than double to $17.8M and more than half of their total cash). that is another thing that I wanted to point out. controlled growth is good (I don't want to see them issue more shares to comply with the reserve requirement)
- MER is improving (looks like they know what it takes to lower MER)
- Payment per member is still increasing (nice revenue growth and give MDF more room to work with and to give nice and competitive plans)
- Addition of another county for the HMO
- Selling 2 non profitable (and declining member base) location
- Using $900K to buy one new location which already has 1000+ members. and if there are more opportunity like this present itself, MDF might use some of their cash to buy them.
- Some of AHC member might sign up with MDF (350 and counting)
- HUM's careplus division might/will give MDF members to service (hopefully solving the PSN declining memebrship issue)
- 6000-7000 HMO members could be breakeven but they are aiming for 10,000 members to have a good and sustainable business (they are aiming higher than just the minimum and they feel this is achievable. I just hope they didn't mean to say with 10,000 they will be just about break even)
- Still no guidance (and I support that) but I sense more enthusiasm and confidence from the management in this earning call (jmho on this one).
I don't have many things that I dislike (that haven't been mentioned or addressed by MDF themselves so I'll save this dislike list for other time)
I still don't think they will be successful overnight (and they never claim to be so), but all the progress indicates that they are moving towards the right way to success.
Two quarters doesn't indicate a trend, but do it again for another quarter or two and that will be 4 quarters and that might be closer to a trend :) just kidding.. I know that for Q4 and Q1 cost will increase (both marketing cost and utilization).
All the best for all longs.
And last but not least.. Congratulation MDF team for delivering a great and comfortable second quarter result!
Be Well,
Stan
LJ and Len, I haven't been posting here solely because I'm very embarrased with my performance in the last 6-7 months in the market. I lost a huge (huge for me) amount of money the last 6 months (a couple hundred grand that is).
For now, I don't feel worthy enough to provide any investment recommendation/insight to the people here who are mostly VMC investment genius/gurus.
And the last 3 weeks I haven't post here, my portfolio suffer more losses (from CXTI mainly). I did add at $4 a couple days ago when it dipped below 4 (before the friday morning conference call). lately I've been just adding CXTI, GENX and ETLT.
The good thing is that I'm a long term investor so I don't do any panic selling, and also that I'm mostly still up (most of the stock I owned are still above my purchase price but if it continue to drop significantly, it's just a matter of time before it started eating my original capital. i.e. my hard earned dollar)
But basically I'm ok (alive and kicking), and I do learn from someone that losing money is one thing, but losing your mind is another thing. I also learned that the stock market is definitely not for the fainted heart...
Thanks for checking on me and see you around,
Stan
tough match against cliff on the tournament..
first day and he bagged 4-5% return already...
amazing..
stan
so what will happen if awrcf is merged back with pewc.. how much do you think they will pay us.. $5/share?
it will be a huge victory for us if they can go to nasdaq..
but from business perspective it kind of make sense to just merge it back wih PEWC...
Stan
ok worthy.. I'll make sure that I make my own decision...
glt us though :)
Stan
wade.. thanks for the advice.. and for the stock tips.. I'll check out your current favorites and I will let you know if I have any question..
well I got a question right of bat.. what is your take on HSOA and the report written by stock lemon... I almost believe them.. but later on I saw how one can twist the fact (on AOB) and show a compelling argument that AOB is a complete fraud and just smoke and mirrors.. and it is almost believable until we all know that Morgan stanley, lazard frees and piper jaffray have done their DD and it is very unlikely that AOB is just pure fraud... so maybe HSOA is fully legit and stock lemon is just trying to make some money shorting its stock..
what is your average holding period...
I've been having 50-50 success (or failure) with the bulletin board... most of them ended up moving to amex/nasdaq/nyse (AOB MDF GEXA HQS AQNT CNR etc) and goes up a lot in the process but it often take a very longggg time too
I think you bring a very good point about liquidity.. I haven't really put any consideration to it and a lot of times I find myself stuck in a stock where I can't get out without a huge loss (and I ended up holding because of the lack of liquidity)... but if I'm still confident with the fundamental I will continue to hold (like CXTI and AOB for example)
speaking baout knowing which stock has the best potential.. I usually guess it wrong.. so when I pick 5 stocks for example.. and I invested the amount of money accordingly (the most on the top idea so on so forth).. and most of the time.. I miss and the pick 4 and 5 are the ones that becomes 9-10 bagger (AOB and CXTI).. not that I complain with 9-10 bagger return but I wish it had been my top 2 pick...
action item from me:
I'll check out your stock picks and will let you know (including your top 2 picks).
and I'll try my best to avoid/not add any illiquid stocks. (what do you consider illiquid stocks by the way.. average volume? average $$ transaction? how much?)
do oyulike any particular industries?
Again thanks for the info wade...
Stan
cl001, thanks for the tips.. I'll stop by to the junior energy board sometime... are junior energy stocks are small cap energy like CNR TGA BSIC PDO TVOC EGY ASPN etc..
I used to own CNR and still have some EGY... In general I don't really like the enery (especially the oil and exploration business as I don't udnerstand how they calculate reserve and how accurate reserve calculation can be)
I also don't like megacap in general (except BRKA) and I'm researching BAC now with 4.6% yield. this could be my 3rd big cap holding in addition to my employer stock and BRKA if I end up buying osme BAC stocks (btw BofA new amex card is amazing. awesome benefits. e.g. free pass to 500 airport lounge and free companion airline ticket etc.)
Precious metal.. I don't any of its stock.. I do have some gold bullion.. my parents likes them a lot and that's why I have some (and they have a lot).. I kept telling them that Gold isn't a good way to save/invest... and they keep talking about back in early 80s when gold was $800/oz....
btw what are some good gold and silver stocks.. do they move together with the gold and metal price (1 to 1)...
I'll stop by the Junior mines board as well sometime..
Thanks again for the help... seems like I definitely need to expand my strategy to boost my returns...
Stan
20% return is amazing.. congrats little fish... I'll be happy with 10-15% return per year..
Yeah.. I'm down now I'm hoping for a better days later this year.. I'm mainly down because many of my stocks went up so much last november (AOB, CXTI, ETLT, MDF etc) and they were at the peak at december and I didn't sell... so my mistake..
mdf drop 50%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=mdf
aob drop 20%-30%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=aob
Stan
I wish I'm as good as you guys (wade and cl001).. I will be able to retire today...
I'm glad to see some of my st0cks starting to recover (I'm still down for the year/YTD)
AOB was bashed prior the PP and then right afetr the PP is complete, both Investment Banks that were part of the PP issue buy recommendation.. what a joke (as they make so much money by doing that).. good trading opportunities I guess.. maybe next time.. this time I just watch it goes down and back up (while holding my shares tight)
Stan
some people only count the cash that is put to work on the stocks as the denominator... it makes sense to put all the cash you have in hand but also include the 5% income on that cash (from the money market/cash funds) in the gain calculation.
but some people who are only 10% invested for example. their return will probably show low return (e.g. 10%) with that overall gain method even if that 10% stock position actually goes up 100%.
other method is use the calculation on the stock portion only such as 100% return from stock (but only 10% invested)..
so on so forth.. (or if some part of the year invested 100% and some other part invested 0%, then just use the overall, if lazy to pro-rate)
Stan
it makes sense though.. I am tempted to sell too.. especially my average cost is below $2 and a pink sheet stock and it is more than triple now.. what more could I ask for..
but i guess greed got the best of me hence Im holding.. or maybe I see value there..
all the best for us..
Stan
great call worthy.. it is walked down today.. no panic selling from me though...
$8-$10
I'm patient