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I've been in since Mid December. It feels like forever (but not too early)
Are you living in Rainbowland? That does not follow the recent PR. I'd be very surprised if anybody has reached the solar efficiency goals yet. Could be a few years away IMO
I'm obviously wrong:-
http://www.nanalyze.com/2013/07/investing-in-quantum-dots-with-nanoco/
Cadium Free
In an earlier post about Nanosys, we discussed the problem of cadium quantum dots, mainly that the use of Cadium is restricted in Europe and other regions of the world. Samsung had invested 15 million dollars into Nanosys to help fund their development of cadium-free quantum dots. Nanoco already has this problem solved. They state a significant advantage of their technology is the ability to scale it.
I'm getting a sense of deja vu with this topic of conversation.
I'm with you except when it comes to Nanosys, because nowhere on its website can I see them claiming to be able to produce cadmium free dots. That always fits with my understanding and Nanoco's own market claim, to be the ONLY mass producer of cadmium free dots (and yes, they are wrong now QMCC is on the scene too).
I don't understand how Samsung can be self sufficient, and if it is, why it needs DOW or anyone else as many expect? Is the answer that Samsung is referring to the films, but is not yet able to produce the dots themselves?
http://www.zdnet.com/article/how-samsungs-intends-to-tackle-2015/
"There is some benefits in our quantum-dot TV cost structure [in using] our self-developed non-cadmium quantum-dot films. [But] the point is internalisation of the self-developed technology to produce a non-cadmium quantum dot that is non-hazardous to humans and eco friendly. Effect to cost is minimal," said Simon Sung, vice president of Samsung's visual display business, the name for its TV business.
I believe the lengthy hitch towards getting the DOW factory developed after the Jan 2013 announcement was something to do with a problem incorporating the dots on film, so this had nothing to do with Nanoco's dots. It was eventually resolved though.
JB
I had in mind $0.12-$0.14, not lower, as even with a no revenue announcement there would probably be some news to give it some lift. But the doom mongers would be out.
I expect no revenue announcement until the the following quarter, but no-one can be certain. If I'm right the SP will get hammered, but we live in hope!
No, it will be the cake!
Some people ignore that at 2,000kg/yr this company has ALREADY overtaken Nanoco in production supply quantities achieved, and even if QMCC did not add ANY more nanoreactors, it would stay ahead of Nanoco in terms of volume until mid-2016 (DOW will also have to spend the not inconsiderable sum of $100m dollars to make that happen).
And Nanoco is rated at 10x the current QMC share price based on ONE deal with LG.
This company rating really is the steal of the century.
One thing not much said is the ability for QMCC to churn out higher volumes more quickly than any other which is speeding up the timeline for product development. I think the cadmium free option did probaby come late on, but by the sounds of it they have already caught up very quickly. The shorter cycle between testing and re-formulation is a key advantage.
No-one knows how to make blue dots easily yet. Do your DD indeed!
It is not out of the question that there is a current deal or a deal in waiting with Samsung. Evidence of that:-
1. QMCC and Nanoco are the only announced volume producers of cadmium free QD.
2. The long awaited news that Samsung will be using Nanoco dots has still not arrived.
3. It is believed Samsung will be dual sourcing its dots, so it won't be dealing exclusively with Nanoco on any basis
4. The NDA's are protecting confidentiality and LG / Samsung are massive rivals who will keep their cards close to their chest.
5. QMCC was talking to the LEADING display makers at CES (and see previous 10Q)
6. QMCC ramp up ties in perfectly with Samsung product launch in Asia.
7. It is not in the interests of Samsung to show that it can source QD elsewhere right now given that there is a pending review of the ROHS exemption. It would be exposed if QMCC does not deliver because LG has bagged all the Nanoco supply.
Conclusion: It is time to bet the farm.
I don't think anyone can argue there is not a meaningful and purposeful distinction between evaluation samples and production samples.
"Their discoveries have enabled us to meet the stringent demands and tight delivery deadlines necessary to rapidly integrate our materials into commercial products.”
I don't know how much more they can say but big news must be very close now.
4th Quarter 2013 is too much to expect! I am not so sure about revenue this quarter, but since there is really not too much by way of hope value built into the SP yet, IMO it is certainly ready to fly.
Oh yeah baby!
SAN MARCOS, Texas -- February 5, 2015—Rapidly growing North American quantum dot manufacturer Quantum Materials Corp (OTCQB:QTMM) today announced it has begun shipping Cadmium-free red and green quantum dots in evaluation and production quantities to select leading consumer electronics manufacturers. The company has increased the uniformity and enhanced stability of its Cadmium-free nanomaterials as a result of bringing previously-reported automated capital equipment, facility and personnel investments online. Quantum Materials is at the forefront of Cadmium-free quantum dot development and recently announced increasing production capacity to 2000Kg of quantum dots and nanoparticles per annum in Q2 2015.
Meetings with manufacturers at the 2015 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) spurred requests for Cadmium-free red and green quantum dots with application–specific functionality. Quantum Materials has accelerated Cadmium-free quantum dot development because electronics manufacturers’ are seeking to stay ahead of environmental regulations governing dangerous materials in consumer electronic devices. Quantum dots are easily integrated into the industry-standard thin-film roll-to-roll inkjet and surface deposition technologies currently used in existing LCD display production lines, as illustrated in an informative video* detailing Cadmium-free quantum dot uses and benefits.
“We were very encouraged with the results of our meetings at CES,” said Quantum Materials Corp CEO Stephen Squires. “I personally am even more pleased with the dedication, hard work and creativity of our team. Their discoveries have enabled us to meet the stringent demands and tight delivery deadlines necessary to rapidly integrate our materials into commercial products .”
The U.S. leads the world in nanotechnology innovation with over $30 billion invested in research to date. Quantum Materials is working with manufacturers toward integrating its advanced materials into commercial products that will create jobs, generate profits, and strengthen our economy and balance of payments. The limited industrial availability of a reliable supply of Cadmium-free quantum dots has attracted the interest of the world’s largest display and solid-state lighting manufacturers in evaluating Quantum Materials mass-production capability. Quantum Materials’ products are the foundation for technologically superior, energy efficient and environmentally sound LCD UHD displays, the next generation of solid-state lighting, solar photovoltaic power applications, advanced battery and energy storage solutions, biotech imaging, and biomedical theranostics.
*High Definition Video available for download by broadcast outlets at http://bit.ly/1KhSS9i for use with attribution.
Thank you.
These stats are taken from the quarterly period ended September 30, 2014. The first number is for product manufacturers; the second number is for Universities, Researchers and 'other':-
NDAs 26/13
Sample Agreements 8/2
Initial Samples Delivered 8/2
Commercial Discussions Underway 21/5
Here are some other relevant statements:-
Our volume production process assures our clients that we can deliver high volumes of quantum dots for industrial use.
For the most part, our shipments of samples are to client’s specifications, and for others, these samples are preliminary shipments for evaluation for secondary purposes as we collaborate toward the development of their specific quantum dot enabled product.
Today we have a very active pipeline of potential clients that grows daily. These potential clients require a broad range of nanomaterials from relatively simple Red emitting quantum dots to both near and far Infrared emitting Quantum Dots, Thick-Shell Quantum Dots and/or Non-Heavy Metal Quantum Dots. Industries or uses intended include – Solid-State Lighting, Hydrogen Conversion, Displays, Solar, Automotive Glass and BIPV films, batteries, lasers, biotech and inks.
First, NDAs are entered into, followed by sample agreements. The Company then formulates, manufactures and supplies product samples to the counterparty’s specifications for evaluation and testing. If successful, this then leads to discussions on the form of a possible commercial relationship. Each step takes time, and the Company is increasing its sample production capacity to satisfy the backlog of requests for its materials of different compositions. Sample production is currently accommodated through use of the lab facilities at the Company’s Wet Lab described below.
-----------------------
All this against the backdrop of increasing recruitment and rapid scale up of the production process.
It is a highly competitive industry so why should a manufacturer announce anything? Typically they do not do that and we know the work is being under NDA! We cannot be given any certainty but you only have to look and see what is going on. Also, if a contract had been signed then no-one on the inside can buy with that knowledge.
IMO the most likely reason for the expansion is non-disclosable customer contract under NDA; or that they have firm assurance of a contract on its way.
Second possibility is that they are confident of the QD market and so they are expanding to increase volume of demand for testing of materials / working to different customer specifications on a demand basis (this fits with 10K).
It does not ring true that they ‘failed' on the technical side as the 10k and 10Q say the exact opposite - i.e. exceeded customer specifications of major OEMs. More likely is that they passed but customer sees possibility of refining the product spec. yet further for optimal performance.
Remember Nanoco expanded with the DOW factory deal before it could state any news of a contract with a manufacturer - so it could be the same here.
Nanoco down 35% since CES when product launches using its tech were confirmed. The markets don't seem to value that prospect either. Samsung might have found a way to make its own but even if that does rule out QTMM the whole display industry cannot do the same. The only question is whether the expansion is for commercial production or simply speculative? It is hard to beieve it is just the latter.
We were joined recently by a pre-eminent scientist with a reputation keep. Speaks volumes. There will be dots being provided for research purposes but surely not all 2,000kg (not to mention the further expanded capacity expected in 2015)? Rapid growth phase underway.
Fine but is our USP not scalability?
So, Samsung just made their own dots, just like that. Is it so easy to do? And if so how is it mass producing them?
Please can you explain the connection?
Backrock have now opened a short on Nanoco so it is now the third most shorted stock on the London Stock Exchange. QM is a smart hedge!
I didn't realise perovskite and QD were close bedfellows. Excellent news!
Sorry, I cannot remember if this was posted already. Excerpts below, plus link to full text:-
https://genesisnanotech.wordpress.com/2015/01/27/shiny-quantum-dots-brighten-future-of-solar-cells/
LOS ALAMOS, N.M. — A house window that doubles as a solar panel could be on the horizon, thanks to recent quantum-dot work by Los Alamos National Laboratory researchers in collaboration with scientists from University of Milano-Bicocca (UNIMIB), Italy. Their project demonstrates that superior light-emitting properties of quantum dots can be applied in solar energy by helping more efficiently harvest sunlight.
“The key accomplishment is the demonstration of large-area luminescent solar concentrators that use a new generation of specially engineered quantum dots,” said lead researcher Victor Klimov of the Center for Advanced Solar Photophysics (CASP) at Los Alamos.
...........................................................................Because of highly efficient, color-tunable emission and solution processability, quantum dots are attractive materials for use in inexpensive, large-area LSCs. One challenge, however, is an overlap between emission and absorption bands in the dots, which leads to significant light losses due to the dots re-absorbing some of the light they produce.
“Giant” but still tiny, engineered dots
To overcome this problem the Los Alamos and UNIMIB researchers have developed LSCs based on quantum dots with artificially induced large separation between emission and absorption bands (called a large Stokes shift).
These “Stokes-shift” engineered quantum dots represent cadmium selenide/cadmium sulfide (CdSe/CdS) structures in which light absorption is dominated by an ultra-thick outer shell of CdS, while emission occurs from the inner core of a narrower-gap CdSe. The separation of light-absorption and light-emission functions between the two different parts of the nanostructure results in a large spectral shift of emission with respect to absorption, which greatly reduces losses to re-absorption.
To implement this concept, Los Alamos researchers created a series of thick-shell (so-called “giant”) CdSe/CdS quantum dots, which were incorporated by their Italian partners into large slabs (sized in tens of centimeters) of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA). While being large by quantum dot standards, the active particles are still tiny – only about hundred angstroms across. For comparison, a human hair is about 500,000 angstroms wide.
That would kind of make sense. I dont believe Bayer would let go of such technology lightly, and they would have agreed a future royalty in my view. It is not core business for them but choosing the right partner would be extremely important to them in this scenario.
Solar efficiency:-
https://genesisnanotech.wordpress.com/
Elijah Thimsen, PhD, assistant professor of energy, environmental & chemical engineering in the School of Engineering & Applied Science at Washington University in St. Louis, and a team of engineers at the University of Minnesota, have developed a technique to increase the performance and electrical conductivity of thin films that make up these materials using nanotechnology. Their work was published in the Dec. 19, 2014, issue of Nature Communications.
Transparent conductors are thin films, which are are simply ultrathin layers of materials deposited on a surface that allow light to pass through and conduct electricity, a process in which electrons flow through a system. Thimsen and his team found by changing the structure of a thin film made of zinc oxide nanoparticles, electrons no longer flowed through the system in a conventional way, but hopped from place to place by a process called tunneling.
The team measured the electronic properties of a thin film made of zinc oxide nanoparticles before and after coating its surface with aluminum oxide. Both the zinc oxide nanoparticles and aluminum oxide are electronic insulators, so only a tiny amount of electricity flows through them. However, when these insulators were combined, the researchers got a surprising result.
It is private subscription only so I can't provide a link. Those figures or similar have been produced consistently for some time.
Know what you own.
Liberum (January 2015):-
"Demand for quantum dots is therefore expected to rise steadily in coming years from a number of device manufacturers, even outside of Samsung Electronics. The forecasted capacity ramp from Dow to about 800kg in H2'15 and about 2400kg by H2'16 is therefore likely to be soaked up, given that much of this is expected to ship to just LG Electronics itself. However with more suppliers like Nanosys and Quantum Materials expected to be active in the market in future, pricing levels could gradually see some pressure. We are currently modeling a price of $80K per Kg initially in FY16, declining to $75K per Kg in FY17. "
The machine is paid for and in place ready to churn out 2,000 kg pa within a couple of months. The whole operation is self funding once we have a contract for sales. Someone can probably identify the cost of each additional nanoreactor machine but it is not labour intensive and costs nothing like the DOW set up- It will cost DOW approx $100m to ramp up from 800kg to 4800 kg pa.
And, it will be H2 2016 before DOW can produce more than QM is saying it can supply in the latest news release. And we know that all the DOW supply is being soaked up by LG.
There is a very good chance we will know a whole lot more about what is happening soon.
He absolutely cannot and would be unbelievably naïve if he did. I think the news might come from solid state lighting as that has been something they have been working on for some time
On financing I think we can all agree that money will be needed if they are not selling anything.
If you listen to Nanoco they say they are the only cadmium free quantum dot makers.
The glass half empty argument is they are hyping the buzz sector to make a "Hey look at us too!" argument.
Yes maybe...... but people on the inside have put a LOT of good money into buying those nanoreactors, and they are not planning on using them as expensive coat hangers!
In truth we will be neither brilliant nor idiots. We are just investors, or maybe "gamblers".
"Illuminating" article thanks for posting. It is dangerous to read into specific words, but "could" improve quantum dot yield?
I agree with Swamp Angel. I am not sure why you think there is a delay with the customer company?
1. It seems that the plan in mid-2014 was to ramp up in order to quadruple from 250kg to 1,000kg by now - this was achieved (and early).
2. The latest 10K news indicates a further doubling to 2,000kg by Q2 2015, and more expansion beyond that in 2015.
In my view the early achievement of the goals has enabled things to progress more quickly, as a further increase in production is happening now even before formal news - that will be because, as we know, quantum dots have been produced to meet specific CUSTOMER protocols.
Step no.2 is definitely happening, as the funding was secured (see last 10Q) and further increases are "anticipated" - and all that to happen THIS year (2015).
Commercial production quantities are being primed and with every other deal under NDA the manufacturing company has been reluctant to announce anything - it is not in their commercial interest to do so - but if the Nanoco deal is anything to go by the news could come anytime now.
Regards
JimmyBendrix
I was working on some figures too BigE, and I too came up with >$1.00 price on news of any sort, or perhaps not if the dots are sold under NDAs, then we will not get any news but there will ultimately be some shock announcement when revenue really starts hitting home Q2/Q3 2015 (and starting soon).
I also work from $80,000kg/pa = $160MM/yr
I think the margin would be above 50% for period 2015-2016, but we don't know the Bayer take away.
I would conservatively set the P/E to 15, but who knows.
If I am right then the upshot is that you have substantially undercooked the books with a SP more in the range of $3-4.
The other way to look at this is by worldwide LCD tv sales and corresponding quantum dot requirements, so we can work out how many nanoreactors will be needed to achieve the required capacity. The financial model would need to allow for 2x 3x 4x 5x the 2,000kg initial annual production capacity. So obviously, there is a way to reach $10-20 if you want, before adding in the other big markets (solar; anti-counterfeiting; optical instruments etc..).
I see QM emerging as a low cost, high value licensing business in the future, where the QD factory line is equivalent to a money-printer (but possibly more valuable than that
GLA
I already know more about science than I thought I ever would. I'm going to look a bit more closely into the solar stuff in a bit more depth as I have a personal interest in that. What do people see as the competition? I'm a bit behind in my knowledge about grapheme uses and what this might mean for QD.