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MARKET MAKERS ARE ACCUMULATING SHARES
2.5 million shares have traded in the last six months at a weighted average PPS of $0.29 totaling just over $700k in trading.
About half of the trading volume in shares and dollars has come in the last 30 days (see 180 day, 90 day and 20 day trading analysis below). One might ask, “what’s going on?”
When the former management team executed a 20,000 for 1 reverse split, the entire issued and outstanding was reduced to 200,000 shares. In such a severe reverse, any shareholder owning less than 20,000 shares is reduced to owning just one share. Any shareholder owning less that 10,000 shares is no longer a shareholder. In other words, the old shareholders were wiped out and likewise, none of the market makers have any shares either.
New shares were issued after the reverse, but most of all the new shares remain restricted and in certificate form; not on deposit with a broker. The Company has disclosed that only about 10 million shares are in the float.
The Company has issued sound and intriguing news over the past few months and now DTC Eligibility is impending. With DTC Eligibility can come trading volume, but not if the market makers don’t have an inventory. Remember, much of a company’s trading volume comes from retail shareholders unwittingly buying and selling stock with market makers not with each other.
With good news out and the looks of more good news coming in a very hot sector and with DTC Eligibility impending, this stock has all the signs of getting ready to experience high buying volume. Market makers can’t sell stock to retail buyers if they don’t have any to sell. So in advance of DTC Eligibility unlocking retail demand, it is my opinion that market makers are accumulating.
Now just how does a market maker accumulate stock?
Answer: by shorting into a position.
The trading volume increased because short sales artificially increased the supply of stock while the demand for stock is artificially low since many would be retail shareholders can’t buy through their broker that won’t allow trading of a security without DTC eligibility. The artificially increased supply of stock combined with the artificially low demand for stock resulted in a reduced share price which allows market makers to fill short sale positions by purchasing real stock shaking out of the hands of those holding the 10 million or so shares in the float that panicked when the PPS went down.
In my opinion, market makers are going to try and pick up more shares of the 10 million shares in the float in advance of the real demand for stock that will come after DTC Eligibility is achieved.
I’m going to try and pick up some stock too right along side of the market makers.
Take a look at the 180 day, 90 day and 30 day analysis below.
SIX MONTH TRADING ANALYSIS
2,481,144 Shares Traded Over Last 6 Mos
$707,468.16 Traded Over Last 6 Mos
$707,468.16/2,481,144 = $0.29
THREE MONTH TRADING ANALYSIS
1,748,784 Shares Traded Over Last 3 Mos
$514,340 Traded Over Last 3 Mos
$514,340/1,748,784 = $0.29
ONE MONTH TRADING ANALYSIS
1,228,930 Shares Traded Over Last 30 Days
$296,300.01 Traded Over Last 30 Days
$296,300.01/ 1,228,930 = $0.24
WHO'S BUYING @ THIS PRICE?
When the price goes down, the common comment is "WHO IS SELLING?" I think the more intriguing question is "WHO IS BUYING?"
Sell because you've lost confidence. Sell because you need the money, what ever the potential loss. Sell because you need the tax loss.
Again, WHO's BUYING? WHO WANTS TO PURCHASE WHEN THE PRICE IS GOING DOWN AND DOWN?
Only two possible answers and both can be correct at the same time.
1. Buy because you believe its a great deal on a share price that's going to go up.
2. Buy because you are covering a short sale at a higher price.
This stock has a limited float and with a limited number of brokers that will permit their investment customers to trade the stock. With a limited float and limited number of investors that can buy and sell it is easy for the few investors that can trade the stock to make the PPS increase and to make the PPS decrease ... and there is a profit to be made for those few investors on both and increasing and decreasing PPS.
I'm not paying attention to PPS until DTC Eligibility is complete. Then, when all the brokers allow all the investors to buy and sell, ALGA will find a much more genuine Bid and Ask and PPS then this hurly wurly PPS volatility we are witnessing now.
BTW ... I think this a a great PPS to Buy and I'm going to do everything I can to beat my broker into letting me buy.
DTC Will Unlock Breakout
I think you're right Fedel. DTC Eligibility is holding back buying. Without DTC Eligibility, it is difficult to buy this stock. Most brokerage firms will not allow their clients/customers to buy or sell stocks that are not DTC eligible. Everyone should read the sticky here above "How to buy stock" to learn more about the DTC issue. It seems that the Company is on the ball and will have the DTC Eligibility instated soon. My guess is they have been holding off press in the meantime, but decided to put out some of the news that they are holding back in light of yesterday's trading. BTW, if this is the kind of news they're holding back, I can't wait to see what comes out once they have DTC Eligibility. I think your estimate Fedal of $0.50 to $0.70 is achievable. Truth be told, I am way more bullish than your estimate.
NEWS POSTED ON PRNewswire
Todays news was published on major news wire - PRNewswire.
Getting good distribution.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-seed-oil-company-introduces-125500984.html
NEWS ON REVENUE OUT !!!
CEO said company forecast was for growing only but that pilot projects were expected to increase revenue beyond forecast. Well the news today gives a pretty clear picture of of the potential of that revenue increase.
http://www.americanseedandoil.com/news/2015/2/10/dube-hemp-energy-shot
NEWS OUT - MAJOR OPERATIONAL EXPANSION
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-seed-oil-company-announces-170000030.html
Financing For 12 New Grow Operations With No New Stock To Be Issued
I SMELL NEWS COMING!
The company just updated their website with the last news release:
http://www.americanseedandoil.com/news/mainegrowroom
I bet that's the IR guy working on the next news release and updating the last news release. Just a guess, but this company is pretty on getting news out and their has been nothing since the 7th. I wonder if they've been waiting on the DTC eligibility thing (see sticky notes 'how to buy stock') to do news. Maybe the news I smell is a DTC announcement.
Great Sector Great Cap Structure Great Plan
Yes Integral, this is a good, in my opinion, a GREAT stock for the three reasons listed above.
Check out Company's website:
http://www.americanseedandoil.com/alga-investor-relations/
Big Named Investment Firms Going Into Marijuana Sector -
Check out this article. Peter Theil's (Founder of Pay Pal) Silicon Valley Founders Fund Investing In Marijuana Sector. This is big news. 2014 saw no big named funds go into the Marijuana Sector. Now, out of the gates in 2015, BOOM, the founder of Pay Pal is in. ALGA, right place; right time; right company.
http://news.yahoo.com/investor-peter-thiels-fund-buys-marijuana-business-124023654--finance.html
Conix Is Posting An Opinion .... and should clarify that his statements are opinions.
I do not believe Conix is correct because :
1. Public companies regularly have policies for managing Material Non-Public Information. I believe the SEC has rules about insider trading that essentially amounts to profiting from trading on Material Non-Public Information. To compete, companies are likely going to have Trade Secrets that are Material and Non-Public. I do not agree with Conix's opinion that Material Information must be Public Information.
2. I don't believe the name of an investor is necessarily Material Information to begin with. I might be wrong. I am not an SEC regulation expert nor do I want to invest the time to become one. However, I do know that the SEC has several categories of rules surrounding various Material Topics i.e Material Weakness, Material Insider Information, Material Contract, Material Change of Control etc. I don't see how an Investor name is automatically Material. Shareholders are allowed to be Objecting Beneficial Owners and in so being, not disclose their names. Why is the name of a private lender Material and if so why does it have to be public? I don't think the name of the private investor is meeting any specific SEC definition of Material and even if it is Material, I don't think Material means the name has to be public.
3. ALGA is self admittedly not an SEC reporting company. ALGA is otherwise disclosing information under the OTC Markets Current Information Standard. I believe the SEC requires that Material Information first be released to the SEC before being released to the public. That way the SEC can comment and propose changes to the nature and manner of the disclosure. However, when a company does not report to the the SEC, what then is the standard for Materiality and the disclosure of such in the first place? Kinda makes you go hmmmmmm, doesn't it?
For what its worth ... my opinion is that there are no issues with the Company regarding the name of the private investor when it comes to SEC rules and regulations. I think you simply have some guy that is lending the Company money to build the grow facility and he'd just assume not have his name out there to avoid who know's what ... unwanted solicitation, being associated with a weed company, having his name bashed on message boards ...
The Investor is 'Private' and probably has no desire to be in the news.
"A private lender has agreed to provide funds secured by the facility and the forecasted performance of the grow operation."
"Look for more information on the State of Maine operation to be published on the Company website in the near future: www.americanseedandoil.com"
It would be nice for us to know the investor and I think ALGA knows that and that's why we got the "look for more information."
Good news though - "secured by facility and performance," not stock. Good going ALGA!
IPO$ - Entire List of Disclosures - Footnotes Just One Of Many
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ALGA/filings
This is what you should see at the link above. If you don't, you might try changing your browser.
Balance Sheet, Statement of Operations, Cash Flow Statement ... right here.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ALGA/filings
However, not much too look at. The Company has disclosed on it's website the 2014 cultivation operations were for trial, not for sale. The balance sheet seems to reflect legacy operations. The Company does plan revenue in 2015. See the Company's website for Business Plan, Capital Structure and Forecast as well as discussion about legacy operations.
http://www.americanseedandoil.com/alga-investor-relations/
40M I/O - 33M Closely Held - See Company's Investor Page For Details on Business Plan, Forecast and Capital Structure: http://www.americanseedandoil.com/alga-investor-relations/
Good Cannabis Analyst Report - ALGA @ $1.00 or more seems supportable according to this report. I like the way ALGA measures up against the standards discussed in this report. One of the few companies focusing on cultivation and with a strong senior management team.
www.viridiancr.com
Regarding Buying ALGA Stock - Just saw this link on twitter from the Company:
http://www.americanseedandoil.com/blog/buyingalgastock
GREAT CEO INTERVIEW - Just got an email from the Company with a link to the New CEO doing an online interview. Check it out. I thought Steve Rash sounded impressive.
http://www.wallstreetnewscast.com/profile/alga.html
Learning More About Trading .... I'm going to try this ... Thanks SweetCrude.
EMAIL FROM ALGA IR :
World Hemp Oil Features American Seed & Oil Company’s Hemp and Medical Marijuana Developments In New York: http://bit.ly/ALGA_WHO_CBD_NEWS
More News Out On American Seed & Oil Company published by World Hemp Oil
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cbd-oil-comparable-to-charlottes-web-ready-to-be-produced-by-american-farmers-2014-12-19
Just Sent An Email to Mike.Murphree@americanseedandoil.com to let him know there was a problem with an email sign-up.
Email From American Seed & Oil Company - I signed up on the Company's website by clicking on the 'email sign-up' button on the 'investor relations' page:
http://www.americanseedandoil.com/alga-investor-relations/
Here's the email I got this morning:
mike.murphree@americanseedandoil.com
8:25 AM (6 minutes ago)
to mike.murphree
American Seed & Oil Company (ALGA) has been coordinating for the past six months with Assemblywoman Donna Lupardo, D-Endwell who introduced the Industrial Hemp Bill that Governor Cuomo signed into law in New York late Wednesday night.
The Company has also set up a farm and university relationship to be prepared for growing in the 2015 season.
American Seed & Oil Company just might be the first Hemp Cultivator in New York.
Read more in yesterday’s news release.
http://www.bloomberg.com/article/2014-12-18/aTQBb9ltxwAo.html
ALGA Has News Out On Legal Hemp In New York:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-seed-oil-company-alga-151800063.html
NEWS FROM ASSEMBLYWOMAN DONNA LUPARDO
123rd Assembly District Chair, Committee on Children and Families
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Chris Whalen
December 18, 2014 (607) 723-9047
Governor Cuomo signs bill to allow hemp research
Provision in US Farm Bill opens door for State to begin growing
With Governor Cuomo’s signature Wednesday, New York is the 19th state in the nation to set the framework for growing industrial hemp. The bill, introduced by Assemblywoman Donna Lupardo and Senator Tom O’Mara (A9140/S7047) creates an agricultural pilot program to research the multi-use crop. It passed both houses of the State Legislature last spring.
“This is an exciting first step for this crop,” Lupardo said. “Both the stalk and seed from hemp can be used to produce everything from textiles and building materials; to paper, food, and environmental products like biofuels. This research will help guide our farmers and producers when the federal government allows full-scale production.”
Section 7606 of the Agriculture Act of 2014, signed into law by President Obama on February 7th, legalizes growth of hemp for research by state departments of agriculture or institutions of higher education in states where it has been approved by law. Many colleges and universities, including Cornell, Binghamton University, SUNY-ESF, CUNY and Paul Smith's College, have expressed interest in participating in the state’s research program.
Hemp cultivation was previously banned under the Controlled Substances Act because it comes from the same plant as marijuana. However, industrial hemp and marijuana are genetically distinct varieties of cannabis and it is not possible to extract a psychoactive drug from hemp.
In 2012, retail sales in the United States from imported hemp products were estimated at $500 million. Hemp is used around the world to produce fabric, rope, paper, oil, soap, lotion and even food products such as granola, cereal, beer, and milk. It is rich in Omega 3 and Omega 6 fatty acids, which gives it numerous health benefits to both humans and animals.
GOV CUOMO PASSES LEGAL HEMP IN NEW YORK. ALGA may be very first hemp grower according to the news last week. This could be the break that puts ALGA on the map. The bill passed just before midnight last night. Let's see what happens with ALGA today!
http://www.assembly.ny.gov/leg/?default_fld=&bn=A09140&term=2013&Summary=Y&Actions=Y&Memo=Y&Text=Y
Thank You ... Now I'm waiting here on New York news. Go Cuomo! Legalize Hemp! Go ALGA!
Great News Sweet Crude. Let's keep a watch on NY. Legal Hemp is on the docket for any minute - a decision today, I think. From ALGA's press, it looks like they have been investing in Hemp going legal. A legal Hemp decision could be a break through for the Company.
.... a disclaimer here to my first moderator post. I got a message regarding concern that I had been 'hired.' Let me clarify ... I applied to Ihub to be the moderator and they approved my request to be a volunteer moderator. No, I am not being paid by anyone. Sorry for any confusion.
.... and the Company used a new news wire service. Management seems to be working hard to find an audience.
.... and great news too. Very informative. Its really a business plan down to and including a forecast. A must read for anyone interested in a 'real' company chasing the cannabis sector.
Congress Restricting Federal Enforcement In States Where Medical Marijuana And Hemp Is Legal!!!!
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/11/opinion/congresss-double-edged-marijuana-stance.html?_r=0
That would be big for companies like ALGA - a grower of both hemp and MMJ.
First shot at cleaning up the board. I've been hired as moderator. I'm learning to use the editing tools. Please hang in their with my while I learn. I at least got all that old stuff down and some new info (from Company's website) up.
Maybe Governor Cuomo in New York will help get some more people looking at ALGA.
The press last week appeared to be pulling the hammer back on the starting gun that might go off for ALGA buying if Cuomo makes Hemp legal in NY:
http://www.americanseedandoil.com/news/ny-legal-hemp-vote
ALGA seems to have worked hard to lay down tracks in NY in anticipation of Hemp getting legal in NY.
I at least like management's ambition. Let's see if the bet pays off.
The ALGA message board needs an update. The company has moved on from the Algae Bio Diesel business. Management has entirely changed. The stuff on this board all has to do with the old business. There is a website up with information on the new business.
http://www.americanseedandoil.com/
We have no moderator. I will gladly volunteer if the ihub gods will permit me.
I like the new CEO, Steve Rash. He looks like a good leader for this start-up. His medical industry experience with FDA approvals and IP licensing seems like a good fit for the Company's strategy to cultivate cannabis and integrate cannabis into health and wellness consumer products.
http://www.americanseedandoil.com/management
Long-Time Ihub reader. First time poster and ready to post more. I was not an investor in the 90's and I missed the Dot Com stock revolution. I was not alive when prohibition was repealed and I missed the opportunity to become a booze mogul. I don't plan to miss the weed revolution - pubic or private. So few businesses had real products in the Dot Com revolution. Even one's with real product were more likely to fail than succeed. Weed Stocks seem the same - few real and most doomed. ALGA at least seems to be real. I'm a vet and I like seeing vets involved. They may not make it in the end, but a legitimate and good effort can certainly make investors money along the way. I'm in. I've set up a new account dedicated to cannabis stocks and ALGA's on top of my list.