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Are you implying either they or Dan lied to me? Please don't ask me questions if you are just going to have churlish responses like that; It is no surprise why Solomon cut off communication with you.
And by the way, what was your timeline for when the loan was to be announced? And how/why did you form that timeline after hearing what Dan said on the conference call where he specifically stated he would not provide a timeline because the banks could always request more things, like they did with the 2017 full year audit, and that the banks ultimately control the timeline, not SIAF management.
This week. From KCSA who spoke directly to Dan for an update. I understand the timeline you have personally set but I hope you understand it could take longer and still be announced with all the triggers/catalysts following. It is folly to assume something is wrong just because it has not been announced yet. In fact, it seems quite the opposite. It can also just as likely come out next week. My point is the timeline is very unpredictable and completely in the banks hands. What matters to me is that they are still very confident it will close soon and Dan's confidence (who has always been more conservative) carries much more weight to me personally than if this was Solomon saying it. Not to mention it would be very rare for a bank to perform so much positive and lengthy due diligence simply to pass. All evidence points to a very positive outcome for those who have patience.
CA info from Tony.
So to answer your question about the CA deals you asked earlier:
The partnerships being pursued have been on temporary hold until financing is closed but are in Africa, India, and Vietnam. Solomon is pursuing Indonesia on his own and Tony doesn't know what is going on with the talks there but I assume they are on hold as well since greater emphasis has been placed on getting funding for Tri-way before resuming talks. (Emphasis I completely support since all "triggers/catalysts" start with Tri-way financing and subsequent debt repayment to SIAF). There are multiple financing talks going on but the main one is the syndicate bank loan for just under $100M that has been consuming all of Solomon's time, which management is still very confident in and should be announced shortly, though I have no timeline on how long it will take for an official announcement (Dan made this very clear) but as I said they are still very confident so that is good enough for me. Solomon indicted they first get funding before starting new opportunities. Partnership discussions include joint venture, technology transfer, and direct investment.
These deals can be picked up again once financing is closed and new deals will be "no problem to acquire". Africa and Vietnam are both still interested. Tony is fully engaged with the CibusDx partnership that was announced at the end of last year and is fully pursuing it on his own with Solomon's knowledge. The MegaFarm will easily sell CA deals once operations are up and running and potential partners can come onsite and "kick the tires".
Everyone talks about Tri-way but CA is truly a hidden asset in this company, particularly if Tony gets to take the lead on it.
Management is still very confident in the loan (as they were on the conference call). Dan specifically stated on the conference call it is completely up to the banks in terms of the timeline. I'm not sure when you think he intimated we would receive it by.
"And the independent audit, just to let you know, has been completed, it was completed this past week. And now it’s been submitted to the lead bank for further review. Since all creditors are working in conjunction with the lead bank, the proposal once having met the conditions and approval of the lead bank’s board of directors, it is then taken to the other 4 creditors for final consideration. That for all intents and purposes is to review and endorse the lead bank’s recommendation on the loan. Considering again that since all 5 banks have been working in concert throughout the process, the final proposal under consideration by the lead bank has already met whatever conditions each of the other 4 banks require to approve final sign off on the loan. This is the most recent update that I can provide so far and as usual we’ll provide details of the debt financing once the funding is secured and closing is in place."
Considering the holidays and slow approval processes Dan mentioned above it seems completely normal we have not gotten an announcement yet, though who knows, it could come out any day. Also keep in mind Dan stated on the CC that the loan amount "as of right now" was just under $100M. Based on that comment I would expect him to try to renegotiate it higher if he could, which could take time as well. My very strong opinion now is that the banks would not go this far in the process to suddenly change their mind and not go through with the loan, so it is a done deal to me.
I believe this is a good idea but do think they are already aware. They know it all starts with the Tri-way loan and that's why Solomon's time has been so focused on this. Solomon also mentioned finally replacing collateral share debt in the not too distant future with conventional financing so certain shareholders have likely influenced him in a way to finally understand the harm the collateral shares have done to the share price. If anything I think we should discuss suggestions to put in this letter such as the asset sale of Fish Farm 2 that Dan mentioned on the last conference call. Dan stated:
"We still have the property and we might find someone to take the land because of nearby industrial development going on reaching maturity. And if we're not able to find a buyer to pay for all the investment capital we may need to sell it for less or write off part of the capital investment but we still have time to discover our best option. There is little capital required to maintain it in the meantime that affords us a bit more time before a final decision on the disposal actually has to be made."
Regardless of a potential write off, this would be immediate cash in their pocket that they could use to get rid of collateral share debt (if they don't already have the conventional financing to replace them), or pay the cash dividend RD has been asking for. Others would have a better estimate on the value of that land. RD? Can anyone else provide an estimate?
CDEL's price action just looks like a short seller. Any time there is a significant sell order, they drop the bids and if the seller is dumb enough to chase the bids and not be patient and wait they'll drive the price down. TS mentioned the company hiring a MM to help increase volume, not sure whether that would really help, what do you think? I think it couldn't hurt but obviously delivering financing milestones will make more of a difference.
Sorry to hear that, I agree the company should have done other things to at least try to put a bottom in the price but they want to wait until they have very tangible news to deliver since everything they say is always met with extreme skepticism. Most estimates are for the loan to be announced this month, which should be the start of the real price move upwards since buybacks etc are expected to follow shortly after, so I don't expect you'd have to wait too much longer here anyways.
But my post was mainly about the long term prospects of the company. As I said, each spinoff of the company TRW and CA can very quickly be worth the highest price SIAF even traded at around $17/share especially if CA is listed as a technology company with a higher PE ratio. And as has been said before CA can be listed before TRW, and we own 100% of CA. And with the cash flow of the type of business CA is in, I presume eventual cash dividends can come from there as well and flow through SIAF shares. Again, this is if you have a long term view like D'Alessandro and his 5 million shares. Not if you are trying to make money this week or next (although I guess news could hit by then too).
Solomon is working on the Indonesia contract. The others, Tony is working on. And yes, the Tri-way loan is again what we are waiting for before everything else can follow. (A loan that many doubted even existed and clearly based on Dan's comments are very close to announcing any day now) This will be the big momentum driver as everyone already knows. As I said before the big boys will come in once milestones start getting hit. Once the price starts moving in the right direction, others will naturally follow. And Solomon has said he thinks conventional financing will replace the collateral shares so once those are taken care of we'll finally have an undervalued company with good growth prospects and proper financing that has recently implemented a buyback program and potential cash dividend program (and add TRW and CA spinoffs as a bonus). Shouldn't be a hard sell to investors, just need to get it done. Until then, market makers and short sellers can play their games but will eventually get blown out of the water.
I also spoke with Tony very recently, and he said he is still optimistic on the CA deals in Africa, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia (Solomon is working on his own on this one) and both Africa and Vietnam are still very interested but the Tri-way loan has taken much of Solomon's time away from these deals. The Mega Farm will essentially sell CA on its own once they have the Tri-way funding and are operating/growing in the way they expect. I think CA has always been a much better business (very positive cash flow, high margins, competitive advantage, extremely scalable to expand growth, it's essentially a tech company so will receive a higher valuation when listed) and with Tony behind it, I personally feel very excited about the long term prospects of holding SIAF. Listing CA before Tri-way is apparently not just a rumor as well.
That's why I don't care about the price volatility in this range. Both Tri-way AND CA can individually be worth $17 (SIAF all time high) in a few years.
His view of the company is completely based on what the stock price is doing. The company currently has a roughly $30M market cap, which means there will be huge volatility (think of the swings from $20M to $40M). I am in this investment to see this company be properly valued with at LEAST a $500M market cap again. Starting with the loan for Tri-way, both Tri-way and CA will be revalued by investors (more importantly institutional investors) and if you look at how much they should be worth together it is easily >+$500M market cap with this valuation increasing every year due to significant growth in the years to come. D'alessandro sees this, and other institutional guys see this but want to see the loan + other milestones first according to KCSA.
And btw, KCSA has specifically said they are waiting for the loan announcement to reach out to particular contacts because they don't want them to have to wait and become impatient like many retail shareholders already have. They believe the loan is an inflection point which pretty much everyone else agrees with as well so that is not news. So don't become like nef here making yourself crazy by watching the price action every day when nothing worth watching will happen until the loan is announced.
Please stick to facts not speculations. Reach out to the company if you have questions. Certain individuals have finally gotten through to Solomon and the company is going to get rid of the collateral shares "in the not-too-distant future". Now your guess is as good as mine in terms of how soon that will be but at least they finally recognize the problem and are actively working to fix it. That is an enormous step in my opinion. Another poster even recently posted about how the share count was going down on Merkur which we've never seen before.
Not sure whether Garrett "knows" more than any of us, though I am sure he does since he has heavily increased his investment position as recently seen by his filings and would likely not have done so without some confidence about the company fixing their financing problems which would have an explosive effect on the stock price.
He has no proof and the company has already told myself and others very emphatically that they have not breached any contract with the collateral shares and, "all outstanding debt will be repaid according to the terms of each individual contract by the respective due date, stipulated."
Just to repost Dan's comments on the collateral shares again: "Well, you know, I’m asked this question every quarter and again, once those shares are in the hands of the lenders, there is nothing that can be done to say that they cannot act on them in some form or fashion. What we have also stated emphatically is that those shares have to be made available back to the company once the loan payment is made. We’ve already gone through this process on three different occasions and had the shares returned. And so if they are selling shares, or if the shares are being sold short, and they could be, then they would have to have those shares made available once that loan is repaid, meaning whatever the market price is, or prevailing price is at the time is what they would end up having to buy out of the market. In addition any dividends which are paid, those would have to be returned back to the company for the equal amount that were distributed for the shares that they may have sold into the open market... In regard to our share price there are complicated issues to answer with even accurate assumptions, however, we believe our share price has, at least I believe, they’ve bottomed and the chances for upside are good."
So you think some collateral shares are being bought back now? It could just be shorts covering. That would be great news if we keep seeing the count go down though, since we've never seen a major reduction before. I wonder how many more they'd have to buy back if it's shorts or collateral shares.
As you've said they've unfortunately just made poor decisions particularly terrible financing decisions to fund their growth and funded growth in the wrong places when they could have been doing shareholder friendly actions instead. You may not agree but I do finally think Solomon has changed his views on many issues that I believe will benefit shareholders, particularly from these levels. This can be seen by reduction in CapEx finally, focusing on the MegaFarm for investment and growth, and getting prepared to actually buy back shares once the funds are available as opposed to plowing these funds into unproductive assets. Garrett wanted Solomon to focus on import/export and the MegaFarm so I assume he wouldn't purchase so aggressively without having an idea that Solomon now shared the same view as well.
I have always been very impressed by Tony and do believe Solomon is vital and very knowledgeable but perhaps maybe as a COO and not CEO. Regardless, if Dan and Solomon finally announce the Tri-way loan I think we will have quite a bit to look forward to particularly because of the growth in tri-way.
Also keep in mind Dan's bold statement of calling a "bottom" in the stock price. Knowing how conservative Dan is, I thought that was a very odd thing to say on the conference call, and that they had to have something positive going on behind the scenes. I assumed it was just in regards to his confidence in the Tri-way loan but maybe it was in regards to already having this loan that can potentially be used to pay off collateral shares?
Read Realdutch's response, I was just speculating. The company does not plan on releasing information about this loan until the annual report. Shareholders should push for details to be PR'd though.
Maybe the Garrett loan is replacing the FD loan? Phoenike was talking about how Solomon said the FD loan was going to be paid off early or restructured in some way. Who knows.
So it looks like we were right to speculate Sino Agro Food already found conventional financing when Solomon said the company, "already has garnered more conventional means of financing". I assume he was talking about this loan with Garrett?
When I questioned yesterday why the Garrett filing was such a big deal I missed the importance of the new loan provided to the company by Garrett. He not only believes in the company to take a nearly 20% stake but even lends money to them as well. I'm curious why he provided this short term loan to the company and what it is to be used for. I can only speculate that it is to repay the collateral shares early? Anyone have a better guess?
Solomon said he viewed the collateral debt as not being ideal (now recognizing that he wants to get rid of it) and being repaid in the not too distant future. But with Solomon's timeline who knows when that actually is. Perhaps in the not to distant future actually means very shortly though.
Accumulate 5 Million+ shares, lend SIAF money to pay off collateral shares, watch share price surge as they have to be bought back from the open market which also encourages shareholders to buy as well, which squeezes the shorts, and as a bonus get an extra 300K shares once the loan is repaid? That's one hell of a deal if so, but that seems more like speculation than anything else at this point. Hopefully the company will confirm what type of loan he provided and for what purpose.
When OTC closes above Merkur, you know we're in a short term uptrend or short squeeze.
The timing of the articles are always interesting to say the least but I agree, if anyone is actually paying attention to the articles then it will be good publicity once good news starts to roll out about the Tri-way loan, shareholder friendly actions etc. as well as the positive price movement that will most certainly follow.
What would cause you to buy back your shares again?
Am I wrong to assume this must be a new loan he provided to Sino Agro Food recently? I wonder how much he loaned them, and if the funds will be used for paying off collateral shares? Anyone's guess I suppose?
I would assume most people, particularly the board who is giving final approval/signatures were on vacation for the second half of December and just got back this week.
People forget how quickly this stock rises in the short term when it does move (which I would assume is due to short covering). I would guess several short sellers jumped on when this broke below $1.00, and Garrett picked up a majority of those shares so if they have to cover and the collateral shares stop for a period we could get another short squeeze here.
I smell another short squeeze here..
The company has repeatedly stated they will get the shares returned back to them when they pay back the debt, and has clarified they are not in any contract breach regarding the collateral debt, which means the lenders will have to buy them back on the open market. The lenders aren't market speculators and in my opinion they may not understand how difficult it could possibly be to buy back shares in the market (they are probably not aware of some of the catalysts and triggers like the Tri-way loan or conventional alternative financing) or that they've been selling into strong hands like Garrett, or that they were the reason the stock price has been moving down. If they try to go into the market and buy back these shares within a few days, however, I think it will be very enjoyable to watch to say the least..
That's true, I guess I was surprised by the amount he was able to get in such a short period of time. I wonder if he was able to pick up either collateral or end of year tax-loss selling shares. Both will have to be bought back regardless (I guess there's uncertainty around the collateral shares but according to the company they will be) and won't be getting their shares from him.
I do not think he has any intentions on buying out the company, but obviously feels strongly about the future of both the company and stock price. To answer someone else's questions earlier, he also has no plan on being on the board of SIAF either. Too time consuming. I am not sure why this came as a surprise to some people since he had been saying he had been buying recently. I mean did people actually buy today based off of this filing?
Regardless, I expect an enormous rally once the Tri-way loan is announced and shareholder friendly actions start finally taking place, particularly getting rid of these collateral shares. It seems there is so much distrust in the company everyone is waiting until things are actually filed or announced.
So based on your talks with FD recently, do you have any idea what kind of change he is proposing in terms of wanting more influence within SIAF with some kind of new loan? Personally, I would love individuals like FD and Garrett to have more influence on this company because they understand how to unleash shareholder value. FD has done it before and I strongly believe he can do it again.
Also based on Solomon's language it seems like he has more leverage here (likely because of the Tri-way loan or some other conventional financing?)
Sorry, I just want to clarify that I am understanding everything correctly since there are lots of "loans" being talked about.
Sorry I was enjoying my vacation. I will be buying more on Tuesday. I just read through this board over the past few days and a majority of the posts are the short sellers and long time shareholders saying they have sold out, and people wonder why the stock price is down... Management has confirmed to me once again that no contract has been breached with the collateral shares and if the lenders do not plan on giving back shares, SIAF can simply not pay back the debt. I believe DougS or someone else posted a more plausible theory not to mention that all the short sellers will have to buy back shares as well.
Since Phoenike already posted Solomon's comment, I'll highlight the fact that Solomon views collateral share debt being repaid through more conventional means in the "not too distant future". I believe collateral shares will be gone very shortly here and the Tri-way loan will be announced as well. This stock price historically rises much faster than it takes to go down.
As I've said before, management is aware and wants the best for shareholders regardless of what people think. They just believe waiting for very substantial news such as the Tri-way loan or alternative conventional financing is the best way to fix the problems. I agree and am confident they are very close.
This was stated by Solomon not Dan just FYI, I know someone was asking you earlier who wrote it.