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Haha great comparison!
I agree, although is EC not helping with this or am I incorrect? I think when companies are THIS undervalued, their market cap is too small and flies under institutional investor's radars, yet the actual market cap for this company which should be over a Billion, seems too large for retail investors to fill. Very interesting situation. Although like I've said 100 times, if you don't mind being patient like myself, (although I understand everyone has different situations), you can just keep dumping your savings and earned income into this stock and keep buying it for cents on the dollar.
Regarding Cash Flow Projections:
Solomon: "Well actually I was going to put out some forecasts but there are quite a number of positive events happening during the quarter that will give a number of variable for us to make any forecasts very accurately. So I am thinking just give it a few more months and let some of these opportunities mature, then we can forecast it more definitely. So it is not going to be far away but right this minute if we give any forecast with all these positive events that might happen and might not happen, that has certain elements of the forecast."
Regarding Senior Listing:
Solomon: "So my answer to you might not be straight forward but I can indicate to you, that we always seem to keep on what we have intended to do and put in motion so you can be assured, we are on that same direction. *confidently chuckles* except I can't give you more detail until it becomes apparent. But I can say this, we are working desperately hard and relentlessly on the subject and hopefully we will achieve something in the very near future, can I put it this way to you?"
So I'm curious, is everyone basically in agreement that we will get listed soon?
Numbers don't lie RD, I respect your technical perspective on this board (even though you tout it as being great and that people will eventually be begging you and kissing your boots, even though you completely missed last quarters earnings result)
Haha I just said DUMPAGE was an effect of DILUTION! It should have been understood or expected that dumpage would be a potential risk when you have dilution, which would have lead to even more dilution. I understand what you are saying, it is just that I credit the underlying problem in the first place to dilution, whereas dumpage was just a symptom. But we can both agree that dilution has stopped and we are at an incredible moment here. So let's stop arguing over trivial things.
Dumpage was happening BECAUSE of future dilution, so again the factor of dumpage was tied back to dilution, where dilution was in fact the underlying problem. Now that that is over, we will not likely see any more dumpage, and if we do see dumpage at this point, it is irrational and is an exciting time for new buyers.
RealDutch, thanks for clarifying on your comments towards dumpage. I agree that it is far better for people to have an explanation, however, it seemed to me like you viewed dumpage as a problem. And to me it is only a temporary opportunity. And I think the way dumpage is talked about on this board is as if it has the same effect dilution does in terms of the valuation of the company when it is not. Instead dumpage should be viewed as an exciting time for new buyers looking to get an incredible deal.
Buying before September was luck?!? Really? Listen to the previous conference call. If you listen to his tone and language you can see that he was basically telling shareholders they would get financing to end equity financing. And that is a complete game changer in terms of the valuation of this company. Like interest rates are to equity prices, the end of equity financing has that effect to valuations as well. And like I said before, a good investor is more concerned about dilution than dumpage because it is dilution that effects the value of the current ownership of the company, while dumpage simply the price. I have listened to your comments for many months and understand that you are the kind of investor that is very concerned about price and what drives share price. We are very different investors, because I welcome a drop in share price, especially as I am buying, and am only concerned with what drives value. I am commenting here lately to get people to understand that, because you guys are doing a terrible job at that, and that doesn't help with your share price either.
Trust me I have made my share of investing mistakes, I am not trying to sound condescending. Without the China Stigma effect that occurred, equity financing would have been possible without such a dilutive effect. I am just tired of the tone on this board, especially the effect it may have on new investors that have no idea about the situation of the company. What you guys should be saying is look, we went through a situation that was unfortunate and resulted in an insane decrease in share price and valuation of the company but that has completely changed now and only made the current buying opportunity better than it has ever been in the past! Some people recognized this right away which is why the stock has doubled after EC announcement, but doubling is only a fraction of where it should be.
If I could sum this message board up it would be several long term shareholders that were used and diluted to finance the growth of the company. That is not to say it was still not a good investment because the growth of the company was greater than the effect of dilution. However, because of the dilution and the China stigma effect had on the stock price, the price has been irrationally discounted at this point in time. So anybody buying today, has the benefit of the future growth of the company that has been financed through the dilution of PREVIOUS shareholders, and an overly discounted price due to this fact as well as China stigma. It is a double whammy, which will have a Lalapalooza effect that Charlie Munger refers to. Many of the posters on this board are those previous shareholders that were diluted and though I feel bad for them, they should have known the risk of dilution and seen that the CEO had no other means of financing growth besides equity financing and known that he would keep using this if there was no other option. If you could not recognize that risk years ago, that is your fault. That is no reason to remain bitter about the current state of this company. What I am talking about is anybody wondering about buying TODAY. And the fact remains that TODAY, anybody buying is buying a massively undervalued company. Everyone comments that it has been talked about for so long how cheap this company is but what previous shareholders were not pricing into the value of the company was the negative effect of dilution; this company was NOT this valuable years ago. Now that future growth will not have to be financed with equity financing, the value has just jumped in terms of valuation. So people buying today are buying a much more valuable company than you guys did years ago. Those are the facts. You can be angry/bitter about the past and the decisions you made but those are today's facts and should be accurately stated to potential new investors.
Haha if everyone was like me, they wouldn't have bought in while he was diluting with no hope of an alternative to equity financing like you guys were. That's why I didn't buy until there was a good chance he would stop..Which he did. Now I get the future growth that has been set in place through the financing of your guys' diluted shares + I picked up shares at a discount to what you guys paid for years ago! You guys were the one's that kept buying and holding while he was diluting like crazy and where if you looked into the future it was clear he was still going to have to use equity financing. So it made no sense to hold the stock 2-3 years ago but today is a completely different picture. You guys were buying when equity financing was the only option. I am buying when equity financing is no longer necessary. Trust me, we are two very different investors and I am getting a hell of a better deal on my shares than you did on yours.
Agree. If you look at the voting power that Solomon has, it should be obvious he runs the company. You may be part owner but by buying your shares you have said that you are okay with all the power going to Solomon to run the company, which he has done a great job at. So if you don't like the power he has why would you buy into this company? I am perfectly fine, sitting back as a shareholder reaping my eventual reward as Solomon continues to run the company. That's how this company is structured, and as a shareholder that's what I agree with by buying the shares. If I didn't like it, I wouldn't buy the shares... I wouldn't buy in and then complain about it, that doesn't make any sense to me. And everyone talks about having to feed their family and make a living etc. etc. but that is a PERSONAL problem that clearly shows you did not fully understand the risks and illiquidity associated with this type of investment. That misunderstanding of risk is no reason for management to change their business or even fire the CEO haha it's laughable, seriously.
Once again, I don't understand why you are showing me this... If you think I am not aware or haven't read that document, please rest assured that I have... I am not sure how much more clearly I can say this, but I was simply waiting for someone else (besides me) to mention the convertible B shares, not because I wasn't aware of them but because I saw someone post earlier about just the 7.4% ownership of common shares and wanted to see if anyone would correct him. In fact, viking86 did. Now if you still don't understand after this point I don't know what else to say.
To clarify, I wasn't waiting around for the answer. Like I said, I was waiting around for someone to correctly respond, and mention the convertible B shares he also owns.
Bingo! Haha I was waiting for someone to post the actual correct ownership percentage
Like I said before, the individual buying shares today is getting a much better deal than those who bought for the past 5 years.
And I just wanted to note that for all those who have been here for years, I understand your frustration sometimes because clearly the rapid business growth and earning power that is now in place with the Mega Farm etc. has come at a sacrifice to your price due to the dilutive effect, and subsequent overreaction by sellers.
HOWEVER, I think it is important to know that anybody choosing to create an investment position with Sino Agro Food AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS GETTING AN INCREDIBLE DEAL (what Charlie Munger refers to as a Lollapalooza Effect)! Because DILUTION IS NOW OVER, and because the stock has been discounted so severely and irrationally, the current investor looking to start a position has an incredible buying opportunity.
I am sorry to say it but those of you who had been invested the past three years did suffer from dilution (though the reaction in the stock price to the dilution was a complete overreaction). But it is this exact overreaction in the stock price, as well as the news for the ending of dilution, that has created such an incredible opportunity for the new buyers today. I think this needs to be clearly reiterated and explained to new buyers so they fully understand that their current situation differs greatly from previous shareholders. Once this information slowly but inevitably gets out and the market begins to understand this, the stock will explode.
Good work diving into the 10K RealDutch, that's what we pay you for! ;) But seriously, like he pointed out there are many signs that they are getting very serious about listing. And I am not completely convinced about a share buyback either, although I can completely understand arguments from both sides. At the moment I think capital is best deployed in Solomon's hands to run the business and continue his ridiculous growth tear, however with us becoming cash flow positive in 2015, and with the stock price at these equally ridiculous levels, I think a share buyback could make sense. The only reason I am not calling Solomon up to suggest a share buyback plan is because I personally wouldn't mind aggressively buying up these shares for another year, but I realize everyone has different patience levels and financial needs etc.
I completely agree. It is almost comical how uneducated some of these investors seem to be, constantly changing their minds from day to day. I actually enjoyed the conference call, and thought Solomon was pretty obviously on implicitly stating that we were going to get big news on listing soon. I noticed the exact same implicit statements right before they announced the big EC deal when everyone was angrily asking him when they were going to stop dilution. It was kind of like, "just chill out guys, I can't explicitly tell you, but you're going to be very happy soon" (then the stock more than doubled in a month after the announcement). Who is possibly selling at this point amazes me, and I think the shorts aren't playing with fire at this point they're playing with C4 because if the company lists, we will get real educated institutional investors who will blow the share price out of the water. And as much as I love hearing people argue about margins, competition from Australia, etc. it is arguing whether the stock price should be $10 or $20 dollars which might be a big deal if we were at $15, but we're not..We're at .83 cents! Kind of like arguing whether the BMW should be 30k or 60k when its selling for 2K.
Hello everyone, I've been following Sino Agro Food and this board since late 2013 early 2014 and have been a shareholder since around that time as well, continuously adding to my position since that period. There are obviously some bright individuals that contribute to this board (as well as some rather irrational/ascinine individuals who will go unmentioned..) but it is also very interesting watching how emotional individuals get from a month to month, week to week and even day to day basis on here. I know there are some who wish the stock price would move up immediately because of the certain cash positions they are in (which seems more like a personal risk/liquidity problem), or because it would just be fantastic to have the entire market simply wake up one day and realize the true value behind Sino Agro represented in the share price. However, as an investor we should know that more often than none, it takes patience from us to wait for the market to realize the true value. In the case of Sino Agro shareholders, however, we have even less to complain about because as opposed to sitting patiently and waiting for the market to see the true value, we now have a professional team actually going out and trying to educate the market and institutional investors about the value of our business! In addition, we should be comforted that as we are waiting, the underlying value of the business itself is continually increasing at impressive proportions especially now that there will no longer be any more dilution through equity financing.
As a side note: I would like people to keep in mind the massive asset/bond bubble central banks have caused, and when the extreme future growth that has been irrationally priced into these assets (financed by huge margin debt comparable to that of 2000 and 2008) is not realized, money will come flying out. Historically this money always finds its way into companies that have actual reasonable valuations (or extremely undervalued in our case) and companies that have an underlying business that has actual growth (not growth through financial tricks such as stock buybacks financed by cheap debt). I can guarantee in years, people will look back at the price levels of Sino Agro Food and be flabbergasted. And I know there are shareholders that have heard this type of optimism for 3 years but I would argue this type of optimism is justified by the game changing discontinuation of dilution through equity financing, not to mention the catalyst of having a professional team educating the market about the true value of our company. I would also like to note that those of you who are familiar with the macroecnomic environment in China should be familiar with the tight credit situation that had been taking place which may or may not have contributed to the inability of Sino Agro to have previously been able to acquire a significantly attractive loan. Regardless, this company is an amazing company, and you can currently buy it at an unbelievably attractive price. I have already written way more than I expected and apologize for those who had read this far. I'd say good luck to all, but we don't really need it!