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Just wait what happens when everyone realizes the FED can't raise interest rates or sell back all their bonds (gasp)! And may even need another round of QE4!
Same I am diverting some serious cash flow into acquiring these shares at these level! It's been amazing haha!
Don't scare him off I personally like him here even if it's purely for entertainment purposes haha. Plus I like hearing what he has to say every time the stock price goes up! It's like a live inside look at the mind of an irrational person and how they reason.
Must be a slow day if we're talking about mosquitoes haha. Was able to start buying again today! Got a bit under $9!
I predict during every huge surge up in share price Joe will be back claiming he "figured" the share price was going to go up and got in just before it went up even though the company is still worthless haha. In fact, didn't he claim that already back when the stock was at $4??
Yes and Joe knows this for a fact, because he knows things 100% just like how nobody was going to give Sino Agro financing, the stock was going to be shut down by the SEC by the end of last year, the share price was going to plummet back down etc. etc. His intentions on this board are very clear but I don't understand why he continues to post here since everyone already knows he doesn't know what he's talking about and nobody listens to him...Sometimes I wonder whether he actually believes the nonsense that comes out of his mouth.
Agree. I don't want to share RealDutch with the rest of the world yet I'm still buying here guys haha!!
Haha okay, we can argue about who's interests they have as a priority, however, we can all agree it is not the greater good of the country or middle class :)
This is such a fundamental discussion that it would take hours to explain either side but there is a quote that goes something like, "what cannot go on forever, wont." This is the case with government debt. Take the U.S. for example: roughly 20 trillion (not accounting for UNFUNDED LIABILITIES for future social security, medicare etc. which some say could easily be 200 trillion). But we'll stay conservative with about 20 trillion. Imagine if interest rates rose to just 5% which historically is not very high at all. You are talking about a trillion dollars in interest payments alone. The FED is not independent as stated by Alan Greenspan and has the interests of the U.S. government as a priority. The FED is very well aware of this situation and is why I strongly believe the FED will eventually continue another round of quantitative easing when the economy "forces" them to do so if prices (like oil or stocks or housing or CPI) begin to slide and we start to see the scary "deflation" every central banker is afraid of.
As entertaining as all this is, I like companies that can do well regardless of the marcoeconomics playing around the world, raising/lowering interest rates, currency appreciation/depreciation etc. and Sino Agro is that type of company. It is only a matter of time (and the company is continually moving in the right direction regardless of the pace some on here might prefer) before institutional investors notice this stock and blow it out of the water. That is why I don't think RealDutch's prediction of $200 is not unlikely in a few years at all.
Yes, there is no doubt Sino Agro will perform better especially during a down market. Most value investments do (refer to Berkshire's earlier letters for explanations). I am very excited for the future of this company, especially as people will begin looking for companies with actual growth.
If you are familiar with China you should know how much of their "infrastructure" investment particularly in real estate has not paid off and only possibly lead to a property bubble. The best example of this is Japan. Look at how much they invested in infrastructure through government spending (Their streets and airports are beautiful and clean) and look at where it has gotten them (dipping back into recession after 25 years and countless dollars spent). Free markets spend money more efficiently than governments, that should be a well known fact. Yet people and governments everywhere are convinced they can borrow from others and then spend themselves out of slow growth or recession. Yes, continually increasing your debt and spending it will stimulate growth in the short term, however, anyone who understands debt understands that they not only have to pay that back at some point but with interest as well. And when you have an economy and companies dependent on this credit expansion and it suddenly stops or worse, reverses, then you are in for quite some pain.
That being said, China still has so much money they can afford to be a little wasteful and not worry too much, however, but they have to be careful. And I think they are starting to learn their lesson and have said they are pushing for a more "innovation" economy now.
I know everyone was throwing guesses about a proper P/E ratio just for fun today but I always try to keep this quote in mind when performing valuations on companies.
I'd rather be approximately right than precisely wrong -Warren Buffett
I personally believe this company has very high and relatively predictable growth in the future particularly due to the Mega Farm. Whether the company is worth $100 or $250 a share, we are all in agreement it is worth multiples of the current $9/share. So we are all in for a fun ride this year for sure!
That is during more traditional periods. We are in/entering a time of extremely low interest rates where people will be searching for yield in a very deflationary period. 40 P/E may be on the high end of the estimate but it is by no means unreasonable or would surprise me.
Patience is priceless in investing, however I do not think we will have to wait much longer before we get guidance (as well as more good news). And and yes the growth story is definitely needed to be told and stressed much more but in the shareholder letter I like how he mentioned This long-term project is planned to become the largest indoor aquaculture facility in the world.. In my opinion this needs to be shouted to every institutional investor out there, who love "growth stories".
Even having the slight ability to read between the lines with this company can make you very wealthy. I agree with you emptyone, shareholders will have a great year this year.
In terms of price predictions, I could care less where it will be at the end of the year I just know where it should be, which is anywhere in the range of 10x the current valuation it currently is today. However, I think there is a very good chance your guess will be seen. I do not think there is a very likely chance we will see prices in the range of $20-50 for very long because at that point it means there is institutional investing, and when we get that they will blow this company's share price out of the water. Like Solomon said, this is a rare company with actual growth in a world that will be going through very slow growth or contraction. I take it many institutional investors will pay quite a premium for this type of growth and I know I personally will require a very hefty premium on my ownership of this company if others want to purchase it from me. I believe other's should have the same mentality.
No because they're always right don't you remember? Hahah
Haha leave it to this IHUB board to find bad news in yet another good press release.. It would be rational that the share price would go up tomorrow, and today was clearly insider trading, however, the market does all sorts of irrational things and if it goes down tomorrow you can guarantee that I will be buying. Some day you guys will look back and realize how many times this company gave you a chance to buy, literally telling you the good things that are coming in the future yet the public and people on this board are ignoring it and predicting that it will go down.. Half the people on this board are so irrational they don't deserve the outstanding results that they will get from this stock.
Seriously...Trading in and out of this stock is so risky and quite unintelligent. You can pat yourself on the back one day but really be kicking yourself another. It still amazes me how emotional people on this board get based on the week to week price fluctuations.
Wow today was a great day if you were a buyer! My oil stock ESV is up over 20% from when I bought it which I'm holding long term, and now I can load up on more Siaf before any big news comes out. And if you don't think big news is coming out you clearly can't read between the lines. Ho ho ho Merry Christmas everybody!
RealDutch, go take a walk outside or something seriously..Are you clinically bipolar?
I am in the exact same position! I am so happy it is coming down. I thought it was going to go up too. We're going to be rich!
You know how I was shouting these past two weeks about this stock price being ridiculously low..Yea I was buying then too. I had just planned on buying alot more shares the next months as well with the extra cash flow I am getting. I can't be greedy though, if it goes up that's a good thing too.
I agree, there are most likely many buyers lined up already. And it was previously asked about hedge funds not being able to buy into stocks under a certain price range and that is completely true. Many won't touch a stock under a dollar or listed OTC. Like I was saying weeks ago, we are in a whole different ball game once big money even decides to TOUCH this stock. Good luck everyone and hopefully in the short term we get a drop in price so I can buy more!
Haha I know, I was like, how exactly do you get to a zero percent chance of something happening....I would have even accepted 1%, but it's really funny having someone who is so passionately wrong about things put it in writing for us all to see haha. I just hope he sticks around when the price goes up or we eventually list so we can hear what he has to say. We should encourage him to be more vocal just so we have more entertainment material to read at our now eventual $100 party.
Joe! Please tell us more of your predictions! They are wildly entertaining and very funny to have them in writing haha
Dang it!! Haha if this is real buckle up everyone..I was hoping I would buy later this week before the price moved though........
Yea I've seem the rise at the end of the days but it recorded 90 cents on my phone app this morning and then I checked later and it had come back down. Haha I was just pissed because I plan on buying later this week and thought news had come up out or something.
What was with the spike in price this morning? Then immediately brought down?
I agree, on the conference call share buybacks did not seem likely at all. I've talked about this before where I don't mind acquiring more of this stock for the next year if prices remain low and they do decide to put the money into growth, however, I am aware most would like to see prices rise ASAP and that a share buyback would probably be the most effective. Next call I may jump on and try to explain to him that the only reason a share buy back is to be done, is if the money can't be put to better use anywhere else in the company. I think people need to understand that setting up a network, presence, and growth as quickly as possible is important in terms of competition and establishing/maintaining market share (so share buyback is not as obvious as some would point out), but in terms of pure return on investment, there IS NO HIGHER RETURN than the one he will get from buying his own stock right now.
Difference in opinions then. If these stocks are the same price or lower in a year you can come back and laugh at me. However, in those 12 months I will still have made a 10% dividend and believe there will be a significant increase in pps from these levels.
I am very familiar with the ineffectiveness of a once a year dividend payment you have been talking about RealDutch and totally agree with you. IF a dividend is to be paid it absolutely needs to be quarterly.
Hahahah I thought you were serious and died laughing when I watched it!
I agree with you Traderfan. I am not saying that is the case, and recognize that it is merely speculation, but it is a good guess nonetheless. Those who have some cash sitting on the sidelines could have picked up some of these oil stocks, but I am sure there are many who needed to liquidate from SIAF in order to free up some funds to take advantage of the oil situation. I am not saying that is a smart idea considering the potential news that could be coming out of Sino Agro literally any day now or that Sino Agro is still considered much more undervalued than oil stocks, however, I can understand that some may think that they can reap some short term benefits from this oil situation and return back into Sino Agro. In my opinion timing the markets like this is always risky and they are assuming they can quickly make some money on oil and then come back to the same prices in Sino Agro. If there's one thing I've learned about markets it is that trying to time things is impossible over a long term and extremely risky. Personally, I would rather just sit on the most undervalued investment and wait for it to go up. But like I said, other people do not invest the way I do and what you have proposed is a good explanation for the price of SIAF lately. Regardless, prices in the 70s right now are like an early Christmas present for me and I have enjoyed it quite a bit!
Seriously..I wonder this every time there's a sell off. Like who is stupid enough to sell me their stock for this low right now..I don't, however, lose too much sleep over it.
So you suggest not buying when someone is selling and pushing the price down..but rather, when it goes up? Haha please don't try to lecture us on what a smart investor would do. I remember you yelling that there was zero chance Sino Agro would get financing and they did. When the stock shot up you disappeared like Casper the friendly ghost and now that it has gone down a bit you have returned. I wish you would stay here when the price eventually sky rockets so we can all talk about how wrong you were..again.
You are one of the few other investors in the world that believe the Fed won't actually tighten, congratulations. Everyone seems so convinced the Fed has succeeded and saved the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy is anemic at best and even more loaded up on debt. Just imagine if they do begin to dump those bonds into the market and interest rates rise. You're right, the rational thing for stocks to do would be to come down, however, people are addicted to quantitative easing and love it now. And as long as they can't get a return in the bond market due to central banks, they will turn to equities. Just look at how the markets reacted when the Bank of Japan announced their new round of QE. We are in unprecedented times to say the least.
Haha sorry, Q1 call then! And yes, it does seem like everyone's waiting around to jump on the stock after official news, so we'll probably get a very large jump again if they do announce something significant.
I completely agree we will see another 40% drop if the Fed legitimately tries to tighten, however I am convinced they will use any type of deflationary excuse (drop in oil prices, strengthening dollar, weak economic data etc.) to rev up Q4 again. However, if there is a drop, there is no doubt Sino Agro will feel it at first especially with people just getting nervous as well as margin calls etc. However, the fundamentals of the company shouldn't change too much and that's IF the Fed begins to tighten, which everyone seems to be convinced of but I am very skeptical of. But when institutional money fleas, they will no longer bet on growth like NFLX, AMZN, TSLA etc. but pour their money into value like Sino Agro, so if at first Sino Agro drops, it will be a good buying opportunity for when it soars later.
Yes it is from the conference call. In my opinion, I believe everyone should listen to it, particularly this part. I remember listening to the Q2 conference call and thinking how revealing Solomon's tone was when talking about a financing deal when everyone was pissed at him haha. He was clearly in talks with EC at the time and had either closed the deal already and was just waiting for PR release or was very close. Either way he seemed very confident and I immediately thought back to that call when I heard him on this last call talking about positive events and uplisting. And I know older shareholders are paranoid about his promises but there are times when he says they are working on things and it seems very half a$$ and then there are times when he says they are very actively working on things wink wink. I was just curious what everyone else's opinion was.
How do you statistically get to a number like zero? Seriously, Joe, not being sarcastic. And are you still claiming that the company's numbers are actually fraudulent? Or was it just in the manner they sold their shares? Also is there an event or any evidence that would be able to convince you otherwise Joe?