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Well at least we know the official conversion has taken place now and that the 36.6% stake will be reflected in Q4 and going forward, thus increasing profits going forward compared to our previous 24% stake. Also, TRW owes us post acquisition accumulated profits of $5,262,524 ( in addition to $14,438,797 debt from Tri-way to also be paid in cash) that will be paid in cash. The company should simply pay out this cash as a quarterly cash dividend to SIAF shareholders. Solomon has already mentioned cash dividends can come from Tri-way operation profits even when expanding. If they did that we would currently be close to a 14% dividend yield at this price with the expectation that they could increase it going forward.
You can email me and I can probably answer some questions you have. Tony has told me in regards to financing that, "Once that [loan closing] happens, we can add to our team and take the ball and run with it". You believe the loan will be closed soon as well so once that happens you will get more information on management going forward.
Dan said if the U.S. tax law passes (potentially this month) the repatriation rate would go from 35% to 10-14% which would make the tax liability $3-4M as opposed to $10M since half ownership in Tri-way that SIAF shareholders would get as the share dividend is currently (Dan alluded to the value of Tri-way going up and adding to tax liability) at $57M USD.
Dan also said the company is currently working on a way to potentially reduce or completely eliminate the tax liability.
Are you listening to Tony again? He literally said all testing is to improve upon their solid and proven techniques, and financing is again what has prevented accelerated production. (Listen to Dan's comments on whether you think the financing will occur soon. I think he was as clear and confident as could be about the loan closing soon)
Great response about the loan Dan! Very confident and good details regarding the progress so far. Does anyone believe they won't close the loan at this point now?
In May 2017, regarding financing they said:
"At the same time, apart from equity financing, Tri-Way is working with several other reputable investment banks to secure alternative or complementary debt financing. One bank completed its due diligence last month presenting the possibility of securing a loan facility in May; others have started the process in May."
The possible loan they were talking about was with the Agricultural Bank of China. The official announcement came out two months later about this loan closing.
The "others [that] have started the process in May" are the 5 syndicate banks. According to Solomon, the ABC loan took a total of 7 months before the announcement was PR'd starting from initial due diligence to announcement. It's been 7 months since the bank syndicate started in May. I would have loved for a PR two months ago but that is not how a major loan with multiple banks works. The company has already publicly said they've made "significant progress, the details of which will be made public once the funding is secured and its closing in place." I expect a PR very soon.
He is not the only one who speaks with the company. I have done my due diligence and am very confident buying shares at this price. I believe the loan is already unofficially closed, soon to be officially announced. Every question I have ever had has been answered and explained by the company. Because of the short sellers on this board who post nonsense constantly, I am very skeptical of individuals who continuously bring up speculative "questions" that they have. If they truly wanted to get answers they could get them; this company has been very transparent with me. I strongly believe there is a string of good news to be announced that no one is expecting. In SIAF's past they have paid a cash dividend for three years, so once shareholder friendly actions return, shareholders will want to get back in.
No. Agricultural Bank of China loan for $15M USD was for working capital. The recent loan $100M USD with the group of banks is for development capital. They've already said this multiple times.
Not to start a debate on idioms within the English language but I am sure you know examples of when you use the phrase "if and when" vs. just "if" or "when".
Usually when you are certain of something taking place but it is technically not 100% done or you legally can't say it is done you use "if and when". I only bolded the "when expected" part because that is obviously the most revealing/important to me.
P.S. I legitimately can't edit it anymore but if you really want me to I'll post it again with the IF bolded as well. I changed it for Em more as a joke, and everyone can clearly read the whole PR themselves.
Just fixed it, just for you.
Just fixed it, just for you.
From the recent PR:
Both Tony and Solomon contributed to the memo but Solomon added most of the length/detail, which I am grateful for, even if the average investor doesn't care. The average investor will pay attention shortly when dividends/buybacks/loan announcements show up but at the point they will have to pay multiples higher to get their hands on shares.
Well they told KCSA they would. Many have committees and they have to vote on establishing a position since it is in many cases millions of dollars they will have to move into the market. The milestones include the Tri-way loan and the F-1 filing. There is an institutional investor that has already filed for SIAF that is currently adding by the way.
I wish you were still in contact with management, particularly Solomon, so you could understand the amount of extensive work that has already been put into finally closing Tri-way financing that is not just talk or "non results" as you say... I would advise you try to reach out respectfully to Solomon again. He has been flying back and forth to Hong Kong the past two weeks and still found the time to put out a 10 page response in regards to the articles about SIAF, which I appreciated. The reason for the delay in this response release was because of his recent trips and focus on wrapping up funding. The efforts of months of work goes completely unseen until the end when they can officially announce the financing closed so I am not sure what you expect in the interim.
Read between the lines of Solomon's comments on the ABC loan:
"Tri-way continues to make meaningful progress toward securing this financing to develop its infrastructure and grow the business. Recent achievements include the granting of a credit facility of RMB 100 million with the Agricultural Bank of China (“ABC”), the world’s third largest bank based on reported assets, and being assigned the strongest credit rating, 5A-1, from Dun & Bradstreet, a reputable business services company headquartered in the U.S.A. These milestones confirm Tri-way’s credit worthiness, clean balance sheet, and its risk averse approach, all of which support our confidence in Tri-way’s ability to secure additional financing to complete the build out of Aquafarm 4 and to commence the construction of Aquafarm 5."
In regards to Tri-way loan for $100M USD recently:
"The process to secure this funding has made significant progress, the details of which will be made public once the funding is secured and its closing in place."
ABC loan granted = meaningful progress
Tri-way $100M loan status = significant progress, the details which will be made public...
Strong support here:
NITE 1.38 1,500 14:23
CANT 1.37 100 10:34
CSTI 1.36 7,500 14:25
CDEL 1.35 8,300 14:23
ETRF 1.33 5,000 13:43
Different buyers.
10 page response from the company is now out! Looks great.
"The primary issue is and always has been the lack of funds to complete the facility"
Never been more bullish going forward. And to those who are so critical of Solomon, be aware he was the one who took the time to add the incredible detail provided. And it is indeed incredible detail for those who take the time to read through. This is in the middle of quite a busy schedule with dealing with the loan. I am very certain he is aware of SIAF problems and is doing his best/will fix them.
Truly sorry you feel that way, but I am very confident the price will be back to where you entered fairly quickly once things get going. I think people constantly forget how quickly the price moves once it moves and shorts cover. Just like Nef, I think being on this board every day is having a negative impact on yourself.
Why did you invest in the first place? Because of SJAP or CA and Tri-way? For me it has always been aquaculture, particularly the MegaFarm. Tri-way is already very profitable with good margins. And not only have they been talking with a group of banks (that alone should be very bullish since banks wouldn't spend resources to perform extensive due diligence on anyone asking for $100M USD) but from my conclusions, the company is already aware they have been approved for the loan, the banks just need to each go through their approval and signing process which does takes time. So when this is complete and officially announced, which could be any day now, the MegaFarm is back on, CA revenues are back, and they will have finally proven they can finance growth through debt as opposed to equity, as well as convinced highly intelligent bankers that there is indeed enormous and profitable growth in Tri-way. Not everyone can be like Elon Musk and have the share price continue to go up as you continue to sell shares.
This combined with Solomon already putting a hold on capex and announcing a vote on the buyback/cash dividend policy is what has me so bullish going forward.
I'm sorry for the loss you currently have. My own opinion is that they expected to get financing for the MegaFarm much earlier and the delay has caused a delay in the explosive growth originally expected in Tri-way as well as temporarily halted revenues for CA. Now, the reason I am very bullish going forward is because Tri-way has already proved they can secure financing as a newly independent Hong-Kong based corporation with the loan from the Agricultural Bank of China which was for $15 million as well as the very high credit rating from Dun & Bradstreet. I have also spoken to management, and it has been publicly stated in conference calls that they are very excited to reveal some of the due diligence reports from the recent talks with the syndicate banks that paint a very positive picture for Tri-way going forward as well as when compared to other competitors. There are many things that lead me to believe the financing with the syndicate banks for $100-$150 million is already "unofficially" closed. At least it seems logical to me. Now if you calculate how much Tri-way will be making in two years with the financing provided to ramp up production, the earning power greatly increases, CA revenues are restored potentially higher than before and SJAP has likely made somewhat of a turnaround by then. At that point, I believe any investor who has sold out over the past two years will have returned (and shorts covered) since the expected growth from the MegaFarm will be back on.
And on top of all of this, I have never heard Solomon discuss actually implementing a buyback or cash dividend policy (all talk has been in the distant future when cash flow allows). So with proper financing from several banks at a great rate, this will be THE game changer for this company because it not only legitimizes their growth potential but proves the company can from here on out acquire financing like a normal company as opposed to having to turn to equity dilution (pre-2014) or collateral shares recently that the market has voted against. If the market hated increasing shares, they should love decreasing shares.
This company has always had growth and value, they have just been unable to unleash value due to lack of debt financing, and lack of shareholder friendly actions such as buybacks and cash dividends to unleash value. With the financing announcement that I am confident is coming (though most are waiting until it is actually announced), the company will have finally proved it can raise financing without costing shareholders as well as take tangible actions (buybacks/dividends) to prove it is a shareholder friendly company.
I believe this will send a shock to the market, which will be reflected in terms of a much higher price, particularly because KCSA has stated there are institutional investors waiting for such milestones to occur. That's why I'm invested and bullish but to each their own. Good luck.
This is the email I received from Tony Ostrowski about a week ago in regards to the articles.
"XXXX,
Solomon wants the opportunity to address the articles directly in detail and with facts and figures for all. I will defer to his initial reply and then address any further questions you may have afterwards. I appreciate your patience in advance.
Best regards,
Tony
Anthony C. Ostrowski, Ph.D.
Chief Scientific Officer
Sino Agro Food, Inc."
I have told you before, Solomon is supposed to be addressing the articles shortly with detailed "facts and figures"
They originally wanted to do the meeting in mid December, not sure if that is still the case. I think they are waiting until they officially close the loan so that they can provide more details within the agenda announcement in regards to buybacks but I would expect the agenda announcement any time now, at least by end of next week regardless of loan news.
I know you're probably just the coffee boy but tell your team to cover quickly. They can make their money back going long this stock than trying to short again. You're playing with fire with upcoming news expected.
Heavier day today. Looks like we've hit a double bottom here. If we can move through $1.5 and get a short squeeze before any news is even released that will be very bullish.
They expected to have debt financing earlier. The Tri-way loan (which I believe they've unofficially closed now), will essentially increase the Tri-way revenue/income projections and allow them to get significantly better terms for the pre-IPO, if they even need to do a pre-IPO since someone from the meeting with Solomon commented it might not even be needed depending on the amount of Tri-way financing granted.
I am not sure if we have to wait for the F-1 to get Tri-way projections or if we can get some after the loan announcement, but it will be interesting to hear just how quickly things can potentially ramp up, both at Tri-way and CA as well.
I wouldn't have suspected anything based on the first two articles but after this latest one, which seems to call out SIAF with very little evidence, it does seem suspicious. If anything I felt like it showed how Tri-way is far superior to its competitors, being very profitable already, as well as the need for Capital Award within the industry. Regardless, the sellers that have brought the price down seem to be gone, leaving just the shorters so it will not take much good news to create a short squeeze; and I'm expecting a string of good news to be hitting once the loan announcement comes out, as well as major buyers to follow.
There will be a public response from SIAF addressing the articles.
In my opinion, they want to wait until the loan is 100% a done deal, not 90% or 95% and then whatever statements they make will carry much more weight in regards to Tri-way projections, buybacks, dividends, etc.
With exhausted retail sellers gone, and short sellers the only sellers, any new buyers will push the price up fairly significantly, especially if the shorts have to cover. I'm expecting a string of PR's within the next few weeks, including the loan announcement.
Shorters trying to patiently cover in the 1.30's here but no sellers...If Tri-way loan announcement hits this week we'll see quite the short squeeze. There should be other PR's released from the company as well, perhaps waiting on the loan announcement though.
Well then let's at least pay CA cashflow as a cash dividend through SIAF up until CA is spun off and listed at a premium valuation. This will very quickly get SIAF to a $500M market cap (within months) depending on the yield and size of Tri-way loan yet to be announced. I think SIAF wants to wait to pay a cash dividend until Tri-way starts ramping up next year, but from what I can see there is no reason a cash dividend can't come from CA's cash flow as soon as Triway starts ramping up. Am I wrong?
The advantage of listing CA is they own 100% of it so it would be simpler/faster, but why list CA in the first place? I'm skeptical about any CA listing in the near future. I would much prefer they simply pay out the cashflow from CA as a quarterly cash dividend through SIAF. I assume if they retain half the ownership like with Tri-way, SIAF could still pay out a dividend through CA cashflow but still..
Great to hear they're already talking to the CEO about this. Thanks for sharing. Seems like closing funding is just the last step before scaling up. And those of you know everything I've gathered leads me to believe it is now a matter of signing/getting final official approvals before sending out the official PR. Once this is out, there needs to be a collaborated, civil, push to ensure management is paying out/buying back as much as free cash flow allows, which should be significant from the free cash flow we'll receive from CA? ($30 mil/year)?
CA net income was around $26 Mil in 2016? Assuming Tri-way rampup begins again very soon pending the announcement of the loan, can we expect the same net income for them on a yearly basis or will it be higher? Also if it is say $26 Mil, we should push management to pay out at least 25% or more of this cash flow which would be around $6.5M USD a year given as a quarterly dividend. At current prices it would be close to an 18% dividend yield (though I assume the stock price won't be at this level once the loan or dividend/buyback policy is announced). CapEx is on halt so when this cash flow comes back it should just be free cash flow and paid out to shareholders.
Go get a job and find an investment advisor to manage your money.
It's higher now. I think shorts are trying to calmly cover. I hope the Tri-way loan news hits Monday morning or soon afterwards!
CDEL 1.35 32,500 13:37