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Phoenike, why do you believe there will be a new agreement between FD and SIAF and what is your guess as to the what it would entail?
I forgot to ask. There was speculation about the selling coming from collateral shares and like I said, the company has not broken any contract terms and will get all shares returned back even if they have been sold onto the market. If they have been sold I expect they will have to buy them back for quite a premium since good news regarding the Tri-way loan is on the horizon.
Remember when you demanded a response to the articles about prawn production? Well it took some time but Solomon and Tony took the time to write out a 10 page response. This was in the middle of loan talks and traveling. I fully agree people have been hurt and management needs to do something, I am just telling you they are aware and I expect a PR soon. Regardless the company is not going anywhere just because people decide to sell shares at ridiculous prices. Buyers will show up once significant news hits and I am very confident it is coming.
They tend to believe a PR will not help that much until there is substance like the loan behind it but I let them know it will help especially based on other posters here who are asking for a response, so if anyone believes a PR will help, let PR know as well.
This has been brought up and they are aware of the suggestion.
Sorry, the company is not going anywhere. To take from what Garrett said, unless the Chinese stop eating fish or SIAF stops selling them profitably like we currently are, then the long term outlook for this company is very strong. There is a clear disconnect from the fundamentals of the company due to delays in important catalysts but as Tri-way grows, CA gets revenues restored and shareholder friendly actions like the company has already communicated such as buybacks and cash dividends begin, things will reverse very sharply. And I would expect the PR within the next few days, likely Monday.
To reiterate to everyone, and unlike rumors spread around here by other posters, SIAF has confirmed they have not broken any terms with the collateral share lenders and if any shares have been sold, they must be bought back and returned to the company.
Dan and Solomon are aware of the article and stock price decline as well as shareholder concerns with the collateral shares. They are figuring out what to officially do but Dan has reiterated that all collateral shares must be bought back from the market and returned if they have been sold. There may be a press release about this soon with the memo he mentioned on the CC. Based on the incorrect article that was released, I would bet this is a collaborated short selling attack.
Dan and Solomon are aware of the article and stock price decline as well as shareholder concerns with the collateral shares. Dan reiterated that all collateral shares must be bought back from the market and returned if they have been sold. There may be a press release about this soon with the memo he mentioned on the CC.
SIAF ownership in Tri-way is 36.6%. Dan specifically clarified this on the CC.
The U.S. Tax bill has officially been passed in both the House and Senate. Trump just needs to sign now. This will take SIAF's tax liability from $10M to $3-4M on the upcoming Tri-way dividend.
Solomon is a workaholic and a genuine man. Tony is well respected within the industry across both academia and industry. Solomon wouldn't even be capable of trying to pull off fooling anyone. Everything is real about this company, including their financing problems, first with pure equity dilution pre-2014 until ECAB stepped in with their convertible note loan (which lead to the stock soaring), and now with collateral shares that have likely been sold onto the market. This along with shorts, exhausted shareholders, and tax-selling has lead to this point. However, Dan stated all collateral shares will have to be bought back and returned and based on the CC the Tri-way loan is in the final approval stage which will finally resolve SIAF's long history of financing issues. I expect a bigger effect of when ECAB fixed the equity dilution financing issue back in 2014 when the stock shot up by multiples, especially since the company plans to implement a buyback program.
I just stated, he told me today he has not sold a single share, nor plans on and thinks this is a buying opportunity for long term investors.
Dan has personally invested a decent amount (correct me on the exact amount/cost basis) but I believe it was close to 1.5 Million USD bought in the $9 range? Garrett has stated he has not sold any shares nor does he plan on until selling unless people in China stop eating fish, or SIAF can't produce fish at a profit anymore. He still believes the fundamentals of the company are good long term and that smart long term investors should view this is a buying opportunity.
He's given cash before. There were the F-shares as well. The plan is to do buybacks followed up by cash dividends. As I said before, the PR about this being voted on at the AGM wasn't even supposed to be released at that time. It was a draft composed after management had their meeting about what to do in regards to the share price. They added a new 3rd party to release PR's etc once the good news starts rolling after the loan is officially closed and they were the ones who accidentally released this. I have spoken to Tony multiple times who deals with the operations daily and the production as well as the science is real. In fact I have also spoken to management at CibusDX who spoke very highly about the innovation going on at the MegaFarm as well as Tony and other managers at the farm. Talk to TS but I believe some investors plan on doing an investor tour this summer. Obviously there is the expectation that things (including the stock price) will have been resolved by then so it will be happy investors coming to visit. Ask Garret why he invests in this company. He has much more at risk here and has done his due diligence. As I said before, the problem with this company has always been a financing one, first with dilution to finance growth. That stopped with ECAB but then the collateral shares started. Very shortly we will have an announcement in regards to the Tri-way loan of $100M USD closing and then we will be able to get rid of these collateral shares from the market and allow the stock price to finally go up. Add share buybacks on top as well and Tri-way growth and this will be a very different story in a few months.
I bought more today. Until fundamentals change, I will be a buyer. The loan will be announced soon, followed with good PR's and buybacks. Dan said all collateral shares if hitting the market will be bought back and returned. It is very clear there are short sellers here and I feel comfortable buying from them.
Lots of baseless speculations going on and I want people to stick to facts so here is the quote from the CFO Dan on the last conference call in regards to collateral shares:
The PR that about the buyback and dividend plan at the annual general meeting was a draft that was accidentally released by a third party the company is working with. I have spoken to board members who have confirmed the plan is to still buyback shares and pay a cash dividend but they want to wait until the Tri-way loan is officially closed. The CFO said on the last conference call that the company is in the final approval/signing stage for this loan.
Listen to Dan on the last CC about the latest progress on the mega-loan. Very close to closing. Solomon has also said he wishes to pay off one of the collateral loans to prove to the market that he can. Once the loan closes though we will hear an official release about the buyback and cash dividend policy.
I still add. Potential collateral shares are the reason why the stock has continued to fall and that will be over very shortly once Tri-way financing is announced. And if it is indeed collateral shares that have been hitting the market they will be forced to buy back their shares aggressively since Dan again confirmed on the most recent conference call that they will have to return shares to the company when SIAF repays their debt. On top of this, there are of course short sellers/front runners and frustrated shareholders who have been selling as well but I expect quite a squeeze from shorts and essentially the collateral shares being bought back once things start rolling very soon, particularly with a new buyer in the market which will be SIAF with the buyback program. As I've said, the problem with the stock has always been a financing one and that is about to be resolved with the Tri-way loan.
My guess is that CANT has been shorting a massive amount of shares and is hoping to scare shareholders into selling to them so they can cover at $1.2. When the loan announcement comes out it will be quite the enjoyable short squeeze to watch.
For everyone who does not follow what's going on in the U.S., the final tax plan is to be released today and voted on as early as next week.
As Dan said, this could drastically affect SIAF's tax liability on the Tri-way dividend shares which would be a big positive.
I think your H1 18 expectations are reasonable, however, I strongly believe you will be surprised with a share buy back program implemented after the loan is announced.
I too, prefer cash dividends over buybacks, however a combination should be beneficial as well. Regardless of what we think, I believe the company is leaning towards buybacks, though like I said are open to a combination of both. How much, in your opinion, would SIAF be able to pay as a quarterly cash dividend, and where would most of the cash flow come from, CA?
When it comes to quality of information I will defer to Dan over RD. RD was the one saying I was wrong about Q3 not reflecting our share of 36.6% and that it wouldn't occur until Q4, even when this was coming straight from the company. I will try to get a straight answer though because like I said, I do not expect future profits of Tri-way to be paid to SIAF in cash, however, the $5M apparently will. I believe someone at the Oslo meeting mentioned that a Pre-IPO may not even be needed because of the loan size. I am sure the loan will help with Pre-IPO valuations, and if attractive enough I am sure they will do it. Keep in mind we also have contractors who have agreed to building out the MegaFarm in phases with 6-month deferred payments. I would like to hear more information about this after the loan is closed as well.
Snow, I do not expect much of Triway profits to be used as cash dividends as you say, however, Solomon himself has stated that Triway will be able to grow and pay cash dividends through operations.
Dan has said that there is the share of post-acquisition accumulated profits of TRW owed to SIAF of $5,262,524 that eventually will be paid in cash. I probably jumped to a wishful conclusion but I do wonder why this $5M will be paid to us as cash. That seems like good cash flow news no? In addition to the $14M in debt from Tri-way, also to be settled in cash.
Regardless the company is very serious about buying back shares once they get the loan so this will create a big shift in sentiment and go right after the short sellers.
We just closed higher today...There is nothing mystical about where the selling is coming from. It is from exhausted shareholders. I am not the only buyer at these levels, in fact there was quite a deal of support today, it actually surprised me.
I agree, I have never been more bullish about the stock based on the actual evidence I have heard from the company. But as you saw from someone who posted earlier, there are shareholders who simply do not believe Dan or other facts they have been told and have just been in too long and cannot handle waiting for the loan at these prices any longer and are frustration selling, even with the positive news that was provided on the CC in regards to the loan being in the final stage of closing. It's unfortunate but I'm sure they'll be back once news starts coming out, though at much higher prices.
I do believe the profits will likely be used for expansion in the MegaFarm, but why did Dan say the $5.26M will be paid in cash to SIAF? Solomon did say that Tri-way will be able to both expand and pay cash dividends from operational profits. You probably know more about this than I. I assume cash flow for SIAF dividends will come from CA.
Tri-way has outstanding loans payable to SIAF of $14,438,797 to be paid in cash.
Tri-way also owes $5,262,524 to SIAF that is considered the share of post-acquisition accumulated profits that will also be paid in cash.
This comes from Dan.
This is close to $20M in cash that is owed to SIAF. Once SIAF has this cash, they can do whatever they please with it and have already stated that, "the Company believes a best use of funds likely to be a meaningful share buyback plan". Remember the loan is for Tri-way not SIAF. That is the beauty of having Tri-way now being an independent Hong Kong corporation. Keep in mind those post-acquisition accumulated profits that will be paid in cash, will continue to flow to SIAF at an ever increasing rate as the MegaFarm expands and provide nice cash flow to SIAF that they have never enjoyed before. This will give them the ability to do the shareholder friendly actions they are planning. Just need to wait for the loan announcement.
I'm sorry for your loss and hope after the loan is announced you can still get back in to make some money. Did you think the ABC loan of $15M USD did not count as delivering anything, or the successful carve-out of Tri-way? The carve out of Tri-way was so important because it allowed Tri-way to obtain big financing deals like this independently, which has already been proved with the ABC loan. As I've said before, Solomon talked about the ABC loan potentially closing in May and it did not until July, but that was simply Solomon not being able to exactly time when a loan will close. However, the important part is that it did. The same thing happened when Solomon spoke about private financing in 2014. No one believed him and called him a liar and then Fredrik showed up providing the $25M note.
Speak with Peter or Erik if you get a chance. I have, as well as confirmed with board members that they do plan on doing cash dividends and buybacks to support the stock once the loan is closed, and are already preparing for this. I have also recently spoken to KCSA as well who spoke to Dan and Solomon just last week who again reiterated a great deal of confidence in closing the loan soon. The company is preparing in many ways to properly go about releasing the string of good news they are expecting to be able to release soon. If Dan's explicit comments on the CC were not enough to convince you of the loan I don't think anything but an official announcement will so I would just recommend keeping an eye on news from the company so when things do get announced you will be able to get back in.
I have the same timeline <30 days. Because of the amount of people sitting on the sidelines until an official PR + short sellers, I think the announcement will be quite an event. I have also confirmed again, that there are indeed several institutional investors waiting for loan announcement news. This is not including retail investors who I am sure also have a significant amount of assets to buy once they are 100% certain.
According to Dan, the lead bank and other 4 banks have already performed their due diligence which has been very positive so far. And the lead bank has already submitted their proposal (to give Tri-way around $100M USD loan from 5 banks, around $20M each) to their board of directors. The board of directors submitted a follow up request for Tri-way's 2017 audit (Tri-way's fiscal year ends September 30th). The independent audit has already been completed and submitted for review two weeks ago.
Dan has said that the final proposal that is under consideration by the lead bank's board of directors has already met whatever conditions each of the other 4 banks require to approve final sign off of the loan since they worked in concert throughout the process.
As I've said before, the hard part is agreeing on terms and approving a final proposal. This has already been done and is simply being signed off on by the board of directors at the lead bank. I personally expect this would not take very long, but the important point is that the loan sounds like it is a done deal. Once they PR that, the company can finally focus on share buybacks and cash dividends, as board members have already said before.
You're welcome. I believe the loan will likely be announced before the end of the year but can obviously take longer. The point is that at this stage the loan is almost certain. And we all know the positive news that will follow after the loan announcement (which is why Dan may have stated the price has bottomed) As stated on the CC by Dan:
He was talking about paying a $3-4M tax liability if US tax law is passed as opposed to $10M for the Tri-way dividend. They are working on other options to potentially reduce or completely eliminate the tax liability as well.
This was in regards to the Tri-way dividend, not cash dividends. Cash dividends can come from SIAF with no problem. In fact they've paid a cash dividend for 3 years before already.
Transcript from Dan's comment on the loan:
"Tri-way has submitted all relevant documents now to 5 lending institutions which have formed a syndicated bank facility, probably better known as a syndicated loan. And Tri-way’s principles have met with each of the bank’s CEOs, they’ve settled on a lending structure consisting of X number of dollars per each vehicle and the vehicles namely are stand by letter of credit, trust receipt, and a line of credit. Which all total just under $100M USD as of right now. And again this is based on what the 5 bank’s willingness to spread the risk are willing to accept. Now the reason why Tri-way has taken this approach is because of the size of the loan and by allowing lenders to spread their risk allows Tri-way the opportunity to secure the higher dollar amount especially in light of the fact that Tri-way’s collateral resources are very limited. Our assets are primarily on Chinese owned land. In the U.S. that is obviously different but with respect to what the company has built, unfortunately much of that is not available to be used as collateral against these loans but we still have a lot going on which is providing the security needed by these 5 institutions to take this process further. The lead bank in coordination with each of the 4 bank creditors has already performed their due diligence, as you’ve seen we’ve had the D&B review and other due diligence, legal and otherwise. And they’ve already submitted their proposal to their board of directors which has deliberated the proposal and submitted a follow-up request for Tri-way’s 2017 audit. Now remember Tri-way’s fiscal year ends September 30th. And the independent audit, just to let you know, has been completed, it was completed this past week. And now it’s been submitted to the lead bank for further review. Since all creditors are working in conjunction with the lead bank, the proposal once having met the conditions and approval of the lead bank’s board of directors, it is then taken to the other 4 creditors for final consideration. That for all intents and purposes is to review and endorse the lead bank’s recommendation on the loan. Considering again that since all 5 banks have been working in concert throughout the process, the final proposal under consideration by the lead bank has already met whatever conditions each of the other 4 banks require to approve final sign off on the loan. This is the most recent update that I can provide so far and as usual we’ll provide details of the debt financing once the funding is secured and closing is in place.