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Closes at $1.34 below $1.40.
Its clearly Extremely Oversold now but can become even more O/S before the bounce.
The chart and its indicators turned negative as the stock now sits on the 50 day trend. R/S is negaive, Money Flow is negative ( more $$ coming out then going in .Must hold here or $1.25 is the next stop.
Chief Bull can spin the last 7 days but the chart can't be foolded.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=fcel&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F9%2F2024&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=50&uf=0&lf=256&lf2=512&lf3=2&type=2&style=320&size=2&x=17&y=9&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=10
Breaking below$1.40 on a closing basis get its next target top be $1.33-$1.35.
The rise is getting unwound and the stock is returning to its downtrends.
Caution is the watchword here.
Fundamentals are lacking and thus no reason to get excited. Avg px tgt among 4 analysts who follow the stock has again lowered to $1.48
Weakness persists in the early opeing. Now $1.35 as it continues to fall.
O/S bounce possible.
The market gives FCEL a vote of no confidence to the recent rally as it cannot sustain the gain.
Promotions will continue ; to no avail.
I suggested it looked weak and it contnued its fall. The break below $1.50 support and the $1.45 resulted in a quick drop to $1.40 .
BTW- the DJIA-S&P 500 -and the NASDAQ all were up. That tells me that the direction of FCEL stock is not related to the indicesbut rather a function of its own fundamentals.
The stock is getting near to Extremely O/S at which point a bounce should come.
I wouldn't expect to much from it as the drop created more resistance it has to get through.
Continue to Avoid the HOGWASH promotions as this contrary indicator continues to suggest to do exactly the opposite. That's been the record.
All that news over the last month gave no sustainable confidence to investors.
Indicators
O/B O/S- Enters O/S but not near extreme level where bounces occur
Money Flow- The last time more money moved in than out was midmarch. Fromthat point more money came out to current.
MACD- Moving Average convergence/divergence. A measue of the direction of sh/px over a rolling average overa pre-set period of time. MACD now has gone from barely positive to barely negative.
CONCLUSION- ACT WITH CAUTION
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=fcel&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F5%2F2024&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=512&lf2=256&lf3=4&type=2&style=320&size=2&x=45&y=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=
Stock below $1.45 a critical point in the $1.45 -$1.50 support. Closing under $1.45 will brug the $1.35 -$1.40 support into question .
The stock has now given back $.39/sh of its $1.82 intradaty high 6 days ago.
It's clear that the prior news releases have done little to sustain the up move as the stock reverts back to its weak fundamentals.
As we know, true fundamentals always prevail in the long run......... not promotions, assumptions or unsupported claims.
FCEL added debt plus interest charges to fund projects.
The debt payment started 5/23/2023 but the payoff for its use won't be for years to come as projects complete and begin to produce. Debt contributes to poor fundamentals.
See 8k for details.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173564800
Support was broken wen the stock fell below $1.50.
It's struggling to stay above the break of $1.50 but is having difficulty as it fell a tad further to $1.48.
$1.45should be tested quite soon . While anything goes, I must follow technicals.
When one continuous to be wrong for 2 1/2 years witnessing a stock drop 90% and doesn't re-examine the reasons and make adjustments, it not just being wrong, its being delusional.
To skip fundamentals, misinterpret technicals, call for exaggerate px tgts in short periods, make statements of news coming within days or weeks only to see none of it materialize should find any level headed rational thinker do some introspection.
When one continues on the wrong path for so long, one actually begins to believe what one is saying. The individual then blocks anything that differs from his delusion and refuses to allow any view differing from his own to enter into his thoughs. To allow contray views would disrupt the delusion.
Think of all the money followers have lost on his advice.
Two points which tend to misguide some Longs:
1) " Potential" equates to Fundamentals..
It does not. Fundamentals are shown in financials and quarterly reports. Not in "Potential".
Stock prices may take "potential" into account and the px reflects it. But in the case of FCEL $1.49 themarket has seen little value in the "potential" as it relates to sh/px. Only when "potential" becomes visible or turned into reality does it show in the fundamentals.
2) Shorts doplay an important factor in sh/ps direction. Recognize that shorts have become active in FCEL stock for good reason. They see the absence of fundamentals, the continued losses and the lack of expectations for a change.
They've been right for a very long time.
Longs have been led by false assumptions.
Now that the stock closed below $1.50 today, there's little to prevent it from a a quick move to $1.40.
The stock has lost $.33/sh from its intraday high of $1.82 in 5 days as Sellers and Shorts recognize that there is nothing to support a continued move higher.... fundamentals have worsened with the latest report and the news releases weren't enough to sustain the move.
I must back away now from giving a fair chance to the stock going to $2.00.
Technically weakness has appeared as confidence disappeared.
Longs would be best served if they pay attention to both technicals and fundamentals and avoid HOGWASH promotional statements.
FCEL stock continues its corrective trajectory. Based upomy view of a 3 month chart a close below will take it lower.
$1.45 coud provide some relief as it gets O/S. The chart implies $1.20 is quite possible on a break below $1.45.
I hope savvy Longs will sit on their hand and avoid all promotional statements.
They weren't right in the past, and history should be the guide.
Just remember he was the same HOGWASH that was saying it was on its way to a new 52 week high after it hit $1.70. The 52 week high is $4.56. Which way did it go??
The contrary indicator proves correct again.
Wonder what he'll say next?
There it is. The correction I called for.
Now comes the moment of truth..... $1.50.
Those that bought the call options at the high weren't listening... ignoring all the signs. They now are sitting with a loss and near worthless potential.
As to coming days, I give it fair chance the support will hold and one more attempt to go higher then comes.
If it doesn't, its not a good sign...... despite what you may read.
Quote "We" all know the reason for FCEL's decline was the macroeconomics."
No; "We" all don't know that nor do "We" agree with it.
No other stock declined from a high of $29.30 to a low of $.98 ie 90%+ in 2 years+.
What " We" do know is that the company has produced continuous losses, increaded Expenses reduced backloga and ongoing dilution in that time and past.
"We" is the market and not the few that follow your reasoning.
Own up to the facts
Furtherdownside in sh/px seen today. Support near $1.50.
Losers bought call options after O/B signals were given.
They'll sadly be wiped out.
Navaho news is old news, Out last month . Brown investment in Navaho also old newa. Both were accounted for in recent run. Now the correction which has already begun continues.
Don/t give up on $2.0 px target . A hold above $1.50could lead to it. But it must hold.
Beware of false promotions by delusionist.
Goodness gracious ! From whence did you come ? Its been awhile since you've graced us with such useful information ?
But no! It wasn't one of those 2 day graphs which provided so much value to the coversation. Nor the two worded enlighteners .......... "accumulation" and "manipulation" which alerted the board to what's really the cause of the huge 2 year drop.
Keep the Comedy coming .
Good catch Ig. Once again HOGWASH proves himself to be a complete flop a dop ! TheHOGWASH INDICATOR AT WORK AGAIN.
$1.50 is as you say the only meaningful support.
If there was support at $1.69 at all it wasn't present and it was broken.
A chart will show no meaningfull support between current px $1.68 and $1.50 although I don't believe it will be tested.
Downside should continue until the stock gets O/S at which point it regroups and tries again.
$2.00 does provide significant resistance and now $1.78 offers some as the volume there shows.
The stock needs game changing news to carry it beyond $2.00 and none of the existing poor fundamentals is sufficient.
FCEL could well be selling some of those 500,000,000 shares they authorized.
I expect more of the correction tomorrow.
The stock is following the expected retracement as provided by the technical signals outlined earlier.
The increase in volume signals a selling wave coming in near its $1.78 top. Notice the increase in volume there did not move the stock higher . That's the tell tale as sellers , shorts and possibly FCEL added to the downslide.putting the pressure on those who chased the move.
Both the O/B and the HOGWASH indicator showed true to form.
The O/B indicator went to extreme yesterday coincidentally at the same time the HOGWASH indicator predicted a 360% increase to a new 52 week high coming.
Both are quite reliable as history will show.
Perfect time for FCEL sells some of that 500,000,000 sh dilution to raise some cash for that plant they want to build.
What better opportunity then at higher prices.
I'm surethey thanked some Longs wo bought them as they sold to them.
Both the O/B indicator , the HOGWASH indicator proved themselves again as the stock retraces some of its gains.
The Extreme O/B status signal was given yesterday cautioning a correction was about to begin.
This was confirmed by the HOGWASH indicator which as I pointed out always is a signal rhat the upmove was about to reverse. It has!
It occurs when that which its named after issues an exaggerated px increase, usually after a big move up. The call made yesterday projected a new 52 week high some 360% higher than the then current $1.78 px.
The 200 day moving avg was not breached......... another signal a turn was coming.
The volume increased near the top of yesterdays range but the px didn't move higher signally distribution as sellers more than overcome buyers.
Don't rule out $2.00 as its still possible after some further digestion of past gains.
Respect the O/B and HOGWASH indicators. They're almost infallable signals.
The Pelosi purchase of FCEL is unsupported with fact. Even so, what would make that a wise purchase?
What's untrue in the article is the statement that " analysts have px tgts of $4 to $12.
The 4 analysts that report on the stock have px/tgts ranging from $1.00 to $2.00.
The article writer should show those analysts which he fails to do.
See rumors/lies start and spread! Notice who spreads them.
Yes; The huge volume is beginning and the stock is retracing. That was expected and all 3 indicators I listed earlier are proving out.
More downside is coming as the washout begins.
O/B indicator proving itself again.
Hogwash indicator proving to work again.
The 200 M/A could not be breached.
More downside s coming.
Its all explained in the prior post.
Watch for huge volume with little change in px. This usually occurs at or very near at top and signals selling pressure has me buying thrust and the stock becomes exhausted..
Huge volume now, with little or no change in price, further signals a retracement is coming.
3 iMPORTANT INDICATORS AT WORK.
1) TOUCHING THE UNDERSIDE OF $2.00 WHERE HEAVY RESISTANCE EXISTS. COINCIDENTALLY JUST UNDER THE 200 DAY MOVING AVG .( NEEDS TO EXCEED AND STAY ABOVE ITTO CHANGE THE TREND).
2) STOCK SHOWS TO BE EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT. STOCKS CAN BECOME MORE OVERBOUGHT BUT THIS ONE ALREADY HAD A HUGE RUN FROM THE LOW IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS SIGNALS A STRONG CLUE THAT A CORRECTION IS LOOMING.
3) HOGWASH INDICATOR IS AT WORK. EACH TIME A PREDICTION WAS MADE THE STOCK WENT LOWER. AS THIS IS AS RELIABLE AS THE O/B INDICATOR, AND PREDICTIONS FOR A NEW 52 WEEK HIGH, 3 1/2 X THE LOW HAVE NOW BEEN MADE, ONE SHOULD EXPECT THIS INDICATOR TO KICK IN AND A RETRACEMENT IS TO BE EXPECTED.
EVEN WITH ANY NEWS RELEASE, COUNT ON A CORRECTION VERY SHORTLY IF NOT ALREADY BEGUN AS SELLERS AND SHORTS ARE BEGINNING TO SALIVATE AND FCEL ITSELF WILL BE JOINING THEM.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=FCEL&x=38&y=7&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=12%2F27%2F2023&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=200&uf=0&lf=256&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=10
You can bet your bippy that FCEL will be selling into this move to raise needed cash.
Forget any hope for a new 52 week high. That's more than a double from here and its not going past $2.00 before a nice correction comes.
The 200 day moving average is right above the current px. Coincidentally it comes right at $2.00. How convenient for a retracement.
The stock is ahead of itself having no change in fundamentals.
Not one reputable analysts see it a different way..........not with the reports FCEL is giving investors.
BUYER BEWARE!!
With the underside of $2.00 the major resistance, the stock has fast approached its upper limit.
Look for the stopping point to come soon.
Buyer Beware! It's done most of its thing .
One tell tale will be hogwash start predicting huge px's like the $100 px he put 2+ years ago just before the stock broke down from $29.30 and never looked back.
Hogwash is a reliable contrary indicator. Watch his calls coming up.
On 12/21 Wells analyst reiterates Sell Rating on FCEL
and maintains px/tgt of $1.00.
2 other analysts have px tgts ranging from $1.40 to $2.00
NO BUYS !!!!!
Here's the base which gave way to the move.
Now at the 200day moving AVG and near the undeside of $2.00 as I called both the base and the tgt.
Watch the momentum and the retracement that follows. Shorts and Sellers will appear soon.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=fcel&x=15&y=11&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=12%2F26%2F2023&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=200&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=10
Exactly 90% higher in 1 month means what?
To me it means its the 1st solid rally its had in over 2 1/2 years.
It means its still down 60%from its 52 week high and down 86% from it 2+year high of $29.30
Momentum could carry it to the underside of $2.00 at which point the dancing in the street will come to an abrupt end.
Hogwash will double down on his promotions and the followers will beg for some happy talk. He may even throw out some number he says the stock is going too.
The Delusion will continue.
$2.00 is the highest px tgt of all the analysts. The rest is lower.One had $1.00 and that's been reached.
after a 1 for 300 reverse split.
R/S coming your way following some more company dilution.
LOL. "It's up 60% from the low"..... says the promoter.
That makes it 85% down from the high and 40% down frm the 52week high. .
They can't ignore or block that out..... but they do try.
You can run but you can't hide from the results.
You're way ahead of yourself.
What you label "naysayers" are folks who follow fundamentals , technicals, and professional analysts. What and who did you follow to get you to $1.70 from $29.30.
Talk to me when it convincingly breaks $2.00
For now you've had a very nice move in the stock.... which I called when I saw the base.Just remeber where it was and where it is.
All the salutations and congratulations and thank yous force me to repeatt:
"Stocks don't move on losses and hope".
That's whathappened to FCEL for decades and thats what happened not and for the future.
A red light is waiting near $2.00
With the loss records over decades and continuing to 2029 at least, what ( with all the announcements of trials ) can be expected?
Stocks don't run high on losses and hope.
This move has nothig to dowit existing or near/intermediate term fundamentals. Its mostly technical in nature after having been brutally beat down for 2 years.
Fundamentals remain lacking despite all the announcements but confidence is building that at some point much further out they may show improvement.
Analysts still have an avg/px tgt of $1.69 with the high being$2.00.
If Bulls of weak understanding of what the market is saying think fundamentals are the cause of this move, they simply do not understand how markets work. That's been the case from one Outside Source for years.
My post 58027 yesterday should be read.
I call 'em as I see 'em.
As stated yesterday, the sellers refused to take it lower the day folllowing the earnings report. That was the sign buyers were ready.
That suggested a willingness of buyers to take a position and drive it higher.
Theunderside is $2.00 with little if any resistance to hold it back appears likely.
$2.00 offers formidable resistance and I'm sure will be a stoping point or at least a delay in moving further.
Tecnicals are looking real good now and the long term trend looks to be challenged.
O/B in the extreme can provide a pause but the trend is improving.
You'llnotice the company has nothing about ever acheving a profit in its report. n effect investors see the losses continuing as do the analysts.
With a 43% drop in revenues and another loss, what then can be expected ?
DELUTIONIST on a paid program. $2.95 per. SHGAMELESS EXAMPLE OF A PAID PROMOTER.
That;s whats wrong.
Investors have scoffed at his record.