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So the meeting is 5 months from now. Seems about right for a quiet period. Z
We've just had a 49% jump on the price on a "demand" of 200 shares. Does anyone have enough money to buy 1000 shares? We could be at a dollar in a heartbeat. Z
I think the first sentence of SULAX message pretty much nails it----never sold anything to anybody. When I think of the money squandered on the FTV it almost makes me ill---A bunch of children in a candy store with our credit card. The main culprits in this ongoing fiasco were IMO Jim G and Keith G. Jim was the front man and Keith the enabler. Keith was the only one who had the voting power to stop Jim and he didn't do it---for years on end. And here we are.
I would hope it's waaaaay more than that. But you can't eat hope. A few years ago we had at least a half dozen world changing technologies. How the mighty have fallen.
I seem to remember reading, years ago, that a "block"of stock was 10k shares and a "big block" was 100,000. Never thought I'd have the ability to join the "big block" club for a relatively modest $13k. This stock has rocketed me into the upper echelons of wall street finance. Z
http://paramaxcorp.com/
I just took a quick scan. It looks like they specialize in selling existing companies (or possibly pieces of companies?).
There is one Google Review that should be read. This does not appear to be a high level operation but then why would Goldman Sachs want to talk to us? Somewhere in there it says they have an office in Rochester so I'm assuming someone on our Board knows someone. That approach has worked real well so far.
On another front---does anyone know how much we paid that marketing outfit from Florida (I think)?
Leitrim: As to the "revolutionary technology" I think there was another one with even greater punch---"disruptive" technology. And at one time, about 10 years ago, we had a half dozen or so products that were "production ready".
I believe there was also an indication that success was inevitable since OEMs HAD to come to us or be left in the dust by those who curried our favor. We were, in some delusional world, in the catbird seat.
We are now down to one potential product which is apparently incrementally better than current technology but not enough better to engender a serious offer.
Thank You for some interesting hard data. Z
Leitrim: I appreciate the thought. When I joked with you a couple of months ago I think you pretty much nailed what just happened---the endless feedback loop that is this company.
How can it possibly take six months to fail at a negotiation regarding a single item? Failure should have taken a month, max. I repeat---Pathetic.
Operating on the charitable inclinations of one individual is tough. Someone built the prototypes. How much money would it take to build 50? I understand that our negotiating position is weak because we are broke and everybody knows it but we shouldn't allow ourselves to be played. I think this latest fiasco is inexcusable. We need a new marketer/negotiator. Z
Absolutely pathetic update. Basically says the same thing Jim told us for countless years----several very interested parties, etc. Just be patient. It took six months for management to puke out this mess? Pathetic.
I agree with the last two posts. If I remember correctly the worldwide market for these types of pumps is about $10 billion annually. If, over time, "our" pump captured 10% of that market and if, since it's protected tech, the margins were at least 20% you'd be talking about a lot of money.
The problem (IMO) is the same as it's always been---finding a buyer---and hopefully a buyer who "believes" and would aggressively push the tech. Z
Ah Leitrim, such a dark view. Most likely information is being withheld for your (our) own good. Those in power have unstintingly and without complaint carried a very heavy load these last 20 years. They have kept most of us in the stock through a combination of misrepresentations, outright lies, cajoling, and clever enticements. The purpose of all that was, obviously, to protect us from our impulsive selves (i.e. dis-investiture). Thus the stock has held value that it otherwise would not have. Have faith my friend.
JUST A LITTLE LONGER. Z
Thank You for making this effort. If I cut him a little slack I would still expect some information before the end of the month. Let's hope there is something positive, with substance. Z
As of tomorrow we will enter March and the final month of my "hope zone". It has now been about 5 months since the demo and the beginning of negotiations. Even allowing for glitches and possibly some additional minor tweaks to the hardware we should be there. I still maintain that if we don't hear anything by the end of March, it's very likely over.
In my mind there is no hope for CURA and never was. Very low probability of anything good happening there.
Aside: I saw an article somewhere recently about diesel buses. Is that Chicago thing still in the works along with the deicer etc.? "Several very interested parties"?
Z
Do you know when the 10ks are due? Thanks.
If there is no deal I fear we are toast. We're trading @ $.25 on a good day and there still has to be some hope out there. If not for the company's history I would not be too upset by the delay. However, I think six months is the outside limit. I think we are in a little more than three months now so by sometime in March is drop dead time, to me.
As far as the watch---I have no clue.
If there is a "shake up" it will probably be to liquidate and the common shareholders will get nothing. IMO.
Some time ago I asked if anyone knew what the time limits were on the "quiet period". I don't think anyone had an answer.
I found the following on Google:
Third, an exclusivity period sets a clear deadline for negotiations. As such, it forces one or both parties to put their best and final offer on the table before the exclusivity period runs out. In effect, an exclusive negotiation period is the dealmaking equivalent of the “courthouse steps” bargaining that often produces a last-minute settlement in the litigation environment.
While these factors increase the likelihood of a deal, exclusive negotiating periods have their drawbacks. Exclusivity is quite valuable for the buyer with few options but correspondingly costly to the seller who has many alternatives. As the seller in this instance, you should make sure you’ve fully exploited the benefits of nonexclusivity – negotiating with multiple parties and playing them off one another, for example – before committing to exclusive negotiations.
I don't know the terms of our exclusivity period or even if we had one. I think it's been a little over three months now since CRGS went quiet. There has to be some end point. I wouldn't think it would be eternity. What is it Mr. Kaplan?
Easily, I think. One method of valuation is price to earnings ration or P/E. If the company had earnings in a given year of a dollar a share and a very modest P/E of 10x then the price should be, using that metric, $10/share. Please, those who are better at valuation,check me on this.
So the question is: Is it reasonable to project earnings of $150 million in one year? I seem to remember someone posting that the worldwide market for the pump is about $10 billion/year. If we had 10% of that market and a profit margin of 20% then the earnings would be $200 million. That doesn't seem at all unreasonable for a product that is a significantly better performer at a significantly lower price than current tech.
These are pretty rough projections. I invite anyone to comment. I have also ignored the watch.
Someone mentioned reasonably good recent volume with the price creeping up. You're welcome---I'm doing what I can with limited resources. I also hope for some kind of year end encouragement from the CEO. Given the potential size of "the deal" I'm not yet concerned that it's taking some time.
Does anyone know a reasonable approximation of how many shares, including options, are outstanding? If we have that number and assume a conservative 10x P/E we could play around with the numbers and see what the earnings potential of the pump would need to be to achieve the sugar plum dream of $2/share.
Agree---and the stock buying public also seems to agree.
SELL SOMETHING.
Leitrim/Others: I'm not too concerned, thus far, over the pace of the pump negotiations. It could get pretty complicated. When did anything involving lawyers ever happen fast? Keep that clock ticking and the billable hours mounting. To be fair the lawyers also have to be very careful to cover their client's butt---that's what they are paid for. I am concerned over who has the negotiating advantage---I don't think it's us. I hope our guys are working in the background, to the extent that it is legal, to tee up another potential customer if this one goes south.
Question: How long can a quiet period last? Indefinitely?
The watch thing is very concerning. It looks like a significant amount of time and money was squandered on a long shot Hail Mary. The fact that no explanation has been forthcoming makes it worse. I doubt that TG is going to be willing to sink much more money into this "venture". We need a deal or it's lights out IMO. If the company goes down, and I'm certainly no expert here, I think the common shareholders are pretty close to the bottom of the list to get any money back. Z
Anyone who fails to get rich off this stock certainly cannot blame a lack of "buying opportunities". The lengths to which this company has gone in order to afford us an opportunity to add to our positions at bargain basement prices have been truly heroic. Z
I never did understand why an automotive company thought it could compete in the software app space. My ignorance in that field is monumental but---there are literally millions of code writers out there? It always smelled like a Hail Mary with 4 seconds on the clock. And then we double down by buying $1.7 million worth of parts that will eventually have to be paid for and scrapped. Give me the name of the individual behind this brainstorm and the size of his exit package.
As to the pump: we have a verbal agreement to talk!!!! And the guy sitting on the other side of the table knows we are desperate. Not a real strong negotiating position.
Just when you think it can't get any worse----. Should be a bang up day for the stock. Z
So Oakie: What was it that Donnelly said? Just playing.
I know nothing about electronic devices---I don't own a cell phone. I, however, have always wondered how CRGS was going to blow, e.g. Apple, out of the water on a smart watch or any consumer electronic device? I still don't get it. That is why I, and I suspect others, are focusing on the pump. That product seems, by far, to be more in our wheelhouse. Z
A few have suggested a call to the office to get an update on the watch. My guess would be that if they had anything good to say they would say it. The silence is the message.
I'm afraid I agree with Leitrim that odds of an announcement of a pump deal this year are less than 50-50. Lots of lawyers and accountants---holidays, etc. I do think that a good deal is preferable to a fast deal but given the history the patience of long term investors is non-existent. Z
As a pleasant? diversion: I think Leitrim's recent post estimated the pump market at about $10 billion/annum.
I'm going to assume that we have one pump of a specific size (displacement?) more or less ready to be hard tooled and put into production. I know a deal can be structured in an infinite number of ways--- e.g. more up front and less in the out years or vice versa. Anyone want to hazard a guess as to what kind of pop the stock might get if/when a contract is announced? I don't see how it could be less than $2.50 and maybe $5. Z
Will someone please buy 100 shares at the ask of .44? Think of the money we would "make'. Thanks in advance. Z
4th: I can't recall when I first got in but it was a loooooong time ago. FTV, the ice remover, Cherry, letters of intent, a previous quiet period, dozens of "very interested" parties, etc. I have since been out for a while and got back in, I think, about 3 years ago. I am in a loss position right now but not bad, easily within reach. I've been pecking away off and on when a few spare shekels surfaced for me.
As far as today: I had a few extra dollars and decided to nibble. I think that the company is in the best place I've ever seen it in, but six times bitten, etc. I'm expecting something this year. As someone else recently noted this thing can (or has) moved really fast based on nothing. What would an actual contract with cash flow do? I'm a cynical dreamer if that makes any sense. Z
The last 500 filled at .40 and the ask is now .38. My computer privileges should probably be taken away. It looks like they only charged me for one trade. Z
I fully admit that I'm pretty much a novice. As a bit of an experiment I just placed a "market" order for 3k shares. I'm with Schwab. The message was that it would be filled at the ask of .40 which is what you told me. Thanks. The last I looked I had a partial fill of 2500 shares. I guess the rest is just going to hang out there until another 500 becomes available at .40?
Years ago, probably also with Schwab, I ordered a bunch of something at a fixed price. The b******s filled it with about 4 separate buys and charged me commission every time. After that there was an option of "all or none". I don't think they do that anymore. I wonder if and when they fill my last 500 shares they will charge me another commission? Z
"All OTC stocks must have limit orders." I'm afraid I don't know what this means. Do you mean that anyone placing an order for an OTC stock should make it a limit order? What is the purpose of the "ask" if it isn't honored?
I've certainly never placed an order for 50k shares but I thought an order would be filled at the ask. Someone please explain. Z
I've been told that the product, when properly administered, will soothe one's anxiety while waiting for price appreciation. What ya gonna do with the pump thingee. Z
It does help. Thank You.
I would like to focus on the pump for the purposes of this email. If I recall correctly, and if I'm wrong please correct me, the current perceived buyer has a thirty day window in which no other interested parties will be in the mix.
So we have about a month---and then I assume the window could be expanded if an agreement was close?
As Mr. Kaplan said: "the devil is in the details". Does it seem unreasonable, that if a "good" deal is struck, the stock could go to 3 dollars fairly quickly? If that is reasonable then an investor could 10X any new money money by the end of the year. Very tempting---but we have a long ugly history in the background. And then there's the mystery of no movement in the stock since the quiet period was announced. What to do??????????????
Has nothing appeared in any of the local media including Business Weekly or Daily or what ever the name of it is? Z
Don't know Leitrim. That is why I asked if it's possible that the company itself is selling at around $.30 to raise funds for continuing operations. I know virtually nothing about electronic sensors but it seems like the pump should at least move the dial. If the world believes Mr. Kaplan is credible we now have serious interest from a deep pockets player? Even if that were to fail they can't be the only option. I don't get it. Z
Is it possible that the company is selling into any strength in the $.30 range to raise operating funds pending a deal?
All:
"As we previously announced, a major hydraulics manufacturer would come to Rochester the week of September 24 th to evaluate our pump and motor technology. Our MOU with them stated that they would let us know if they wanted to proceed to negotiations within 30 days from the testing. Last week a group of their senior management and engineers from the US and Europe came to our headquarters in Rochester, NY. They informed us after the meeting that they want to start negotiations immediately for an agreement to form a relationship with us.
I want to make it clear that this is not a done deal and the “devil is in the details” of an agreement. However, that being said, we are very excited about the potential that this could create for Curaegis."
I think the above is excellent news. IMO the best thing about it is the mature reasoned statement. Mr. Kaplan has credibility. The way I read his statement: "We are very pleased and excited, but not so pleased and excited that we will give away the farm just to get a deal. The deal has to be in the best interests of the stockholders."
I have never felt better about this investment---grown-ups in the room. I'd be surprised if the stock stayed at $.30 much longer. Best to all and to me. Zendo
We are all speculating at this point. In my experience there is a path to production: Engineering model, Prototype(s), B-1 (etc) build, Pre-production build on soft tools, Production build on hard tools. At each stage there are design modifications. Generally the larger functionality related changes are in the earlier stages and the later changes are more on the order of tweaks. As an example, when the product is "ready" tooling must be purchased. Let's say the containment case is to be injection molded. Those molds have to be designed by a tool designer and he will ask for such things as larger radius fillets, tolerance relief, etc. Once the tooling is built we have to do a pre-production run and 100% dimensional inspection to insure the part is to spec----every part. It is a long tortuous process. That is not to say that the principals in a deal cannot strike a deal at any point when the buyer is confident in the design and functionality, including the durability, of the product. I'm just saying that, IMO, we are a long way from volume production so if any deal was based, in part, on units sold, that cash flow is a ways off. Zendo
For many years a couple of us kept pounding on the need for bench testing. It looks like they finally did some but the extent of what has been done is unknown. This crew seems to have realized that no one was going to buy a set of drawings with no testing. Hopefully we have a lot of life testing data to go along with the stress testing.
There will certainly be design changes: thicken a wall here, give us a little shallower radius there---manufacturing convenience.
What are the tolerance requirements? Are they known. Probably need a run of a dozen or so on soft tooling and then hard tool it for volume manufacturing.
I was out of this once with a small profit but got back in in the last 18 months or so. I kind of agree with whoever has been saying that the watch was a distraction and the pump is the product. Hope I'm wrong and they both pop.
Zendo
Does anyone know how many people actually show up for work at Torvec every day? And what their functions are? I'm assuming two or three engineers and the CEO. Who else? Z