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$15???!!??? That's a serious wet dream... ;)
Joined you guys on this board. I fully expect the value gap to close. I first took a position yesterday and doubled it this morning.
My same post from Emerging Chinese Small Caps board
Recent Warrant Plays:
(current-exercise=expected intrinsic), (actual/expected)
TMI: ($13-$5.50=$7.50), ($5.5/$7.5)=73.33%
HOL: ($9.8-$7.5=$2.30), ($1.5/$2.3)=65.22%
CNDWF: ($7.35-$5.0=$2.35), ($1.15/$2.35)=48.94%
On a relative basis, CNDWF is a good bargain. My personal plays have been TMI, because I like the chances of the company meeting their growth targets. Not so hot on HOL. I actually put VERY little there due to a partial fill. Jumped into CNDWF due to the sizable difference in intrinsic value to actual market price. Overall, very happy. :D
CNDZF/CNDWF:
Look who are guests of honor to ring the bell tomorrow:
Chairman and CEO Ms. Ting Zheng Rings The Opening Bell
http://www.nyse.com/about/newsevents/1258542948676.html
TMI has already been good to me. I am here for the long haul. If they achieve the growth target of 3.93 in 2011, than $39 at a PE of 10 would be fairly inexpensive. But at $39 I certainly won't be complaining.
Recent Warrant Plays:
(current-exercise=expected intrinsic), (actual/expected)
TMI: ($13-$5.50=$7.50), ($5.5/$7.5)=73.33%
HOL: ($9.8-$7.5=$2.30), ($1.5/$2.3)=65.22%
CNDWF: ($7.35-$5.0=$2.35), ($1.15/$2.35)=48.94%
On a relative basis, CNDWF is a good bargain. My personal plays have been TMI, because I like the chances of the company meeting their growth targets. Not so hot on HOL. I actually put VERY little there due to a partial fill. Jumped into CNDWF due to the sizable difference in intrinsic value to actual market price. Overall, very happy. :D
Saw that 7.35 in the filing. Was looking to see if anyone knew if it was over/under subscribed and if they are adjusting the price.
Any knowledge on how the pricing of the IPO is going?
Couldn't resist and doubled my position this morning.
CNDZF: Any thoughts on the drop in revs for FYE09? 1Q10 seems to have recovered on to the path of growth, albeit at the FYE08 pace. Tried parsing through the prospectus, but didn't see anything. May have missed it, since I was reading it on the train on my PDA.
CNDWF: Joined you guys on this one. Like the price disparity w/ the warrants, better disparity than HOL warrants, which I chose not to play. Not as crazy about the company, China Cord. Unlike TMI, which is booking serious profits and growing, CNDWF hasn't shown that yet from the filings. They certainly have a moat, which is good, but hopefully that moat is protecting a valuable asset. I sized this accordingly, I put in 1/3rd less than I did to start with TMI. I'm also not planning to hold this as long term as TMI. TMI I can see holding through to end of next year, as long as the growth prospects continue. CNDWF I'll play by ear. Need to dig a little deeper, I've only looked briefly at the numbers.
Oh yes, I saw that. I didn't read between the lines where you stated that it would not be a simple PR stating the name change. I like your thoughts, but remain cautious on something I have no deep insight.
For ignorance sake, where was the 2 month time period mentioned?
Nice. Loaded to the gills and still adding. Would you divulge how large a position in terms of % of total investment EGMI has become for you? I know you said you like concentrated investing. This is probably a bit above 50% for me right now.
Wake me up at the end of March when they post the 10K. I guess investors don't get hot and bothered with 39% revenue growth and 45% comp income growth Q over Q and 78% gross margins. At a 11 FWD PE based on current Q, to me this is undervalued.
The company seems to have everything lined up to uplist, they just need the stock price to cooperate. There are certainly worse companies on the NASDAQ. I imagine right now they are off the radar for analysts covering strictly gaming or strictly marketing, but over time if growth continues EGMI will be discovered. I am firmly waiting for that day.
TMI: "being conservative". That's the equivalent of whispering sweet nothings into my ear. I love it! Company books 83% increase in earnings and 65% increase in revenues. I was actually at first skeptical of their growth objective, but less so now after seeing their ability to expand between 2Q to 3Q. I think that 32k of buses is a possibility now. Hitting the earn outs to get those additional shares, however could be interesting. That 2010 hurdle is HUGE.
Goldman or any other investment bank buying into TMI provides me little comfort. Makes me believe they are up to something, either to help their clients or to do some arbitrage.
If this thing opens up above $6, than this position has grown to be about 17% of my portfolio. Love it! If TMI achieves the growth multiple consistent with its actual growth this stock will have serious legs. I plan on holding and will not try to beat myself up too much for not doubling my position in the most recent drop to the low 2's.
TMI: I haven't tried, but I remember reading someone tried to short and they couldn't. If that is still the case, the only way to close the value gap is to buy the warrants.
Nice numbers.
I like how they described they are growing their network:
"As of today, our network includes 46 bus operator partners, up from 40 in mid-September, with whom we have entered agreements for terms ranging from five to eight years. The total number of buses equipped with our television systems is now over 20,000, increasing approximately by 2,000 buses since mid-September. In the fourth quarter, we plan to further expand our geographic coverage through the signing of several new agreements with the new bus operators. Our network now covers the municipality of Guangzhou, China's third largest city, after Beijing and Shanghai and also the province of Shanxi."
Drexion pointed out management intention was to get to 32k by end of 2010. That means they have to grow the network by about another 1k a month. Definitely an aggressive growth target. Though the management will be paid handsomely through the earn out if they can achieve their targets. Seems like they still may fall short considering 3rd qtr is in the bag and the earn out is $42mm. They still can carry that over into next year, but it just raises the hurdle. Growth prospects are confirmed so far by this qtrs numbers. Let's hope they keep it up. My only regret is not doubling when the warrants dipped into the low 2.0's, like I wanted. After tomorrow, probably won't get another chance.
I wouldn't mind helping on the board if you want to add me as a assistant.
Honestly I see less risk in TMI.
1) Acquisition already complete. No risk of investment going to zero immediately.
2) More intrinisic value in TMI ((11.63-5.50=6.13) 3.70/6.13=60.36% of intrinsic) vs HOL (8.75-7.50=1.25) 0.86/1.25=68.8% intrinsic).
3) Better company (subjective opinion).
If I had a choice right now I would put my eggs in the TMI basket.
Wonder if it will be the "American Idol" promotional that they keep showing in the presentations. That would be HUGE! I'm not sure how something like that would sell to the American Idol core market, but it sure is an eye catching title to have in the portfolio.
Are these guys going to report 3Q for CME soon?
I've been in this stock for a long time. Lost some money on it the first time about 3 1/2 years ago. Got out. Than got in on a bunch in the upper teen cents and bought more as it grew. About 57% of my portfolio now. I recently added in the 1.40's for some trading shares, but I think that may be it for now. I have no qualms holding it through the storm. I did so in Oct '08 and as we now see it has paid off handsomely.
The best thing is that you only need one of these to hit it big to make EGMI a home run. If more than one hit than EGMI becomes back to back home runs. I've been holding on to 2 1/2 years on my earliest shares. I'm strapping in for the ride in 2010.
Ok, I'm done for today. Wake me when we get to $3.
Not a lot of volume for such a news filled day. Guess we'll have to hit a 50% growth rate before anyone notices.
I'm not complaining, but with a concentrated portfolio I was hoping to get a few whhheeeeeeee's in today.
So if we're using Roth .20 guidance than 80% of their business is locked in for 2010? That sounds pretty good.
So if we're using Roth .20 guidance than 80% of their business is locked in for 2010?
So if we're using Roth .20 guidance than 80% of their business is locked in for 2010?
I am an idiot too. 57% of my portfolio in this stock.
Wow, still only 1.85. Shows you I have no innate feel about market sentiment and am a horrible trader. Thank god I just buy and hold. This stock should easily deserve a $3 price now based on their earnings and revenue growth.
It beat my expectations in terms of top line growth. I was looking for that as confirmation of growth and firmly provides support that the company deserves a higher growth type multiple.
We'll find out in 3 minutes. Let the games begin.
I would be disappointed if we don't take out the 52 week high of 2.24 and get to about 2.50. I'll give that until tomorrow.
I'm gonna be smiling all day.... :D
Love the fact that revenues came in higher. 38% is a solid number. I was happy with about 25%.
Today is the moment of truth. Is EGMI growing or not?
Thanks, 10bagger. I know its almost a month after, but that was a great morsel of advice. I just happened to come across this post while cruising for information. That's the great thing about these message boards. One month later and great information is still available. I agree with you on finding good illiquid stocks, but lots of patience is needed and you have to find something that will stand the test of time. Your time will certainly be tested. I've made some bad investments, but trying to learn from them all.
I'm looking for a run w/ any reported higher revenues considering they have been reporting fairly flat revenues over the past few quarters. That is the reason I picked some up during the recent drop. Too bad I only got a small fill.
I'm looking for a run w/ any reported higher revenues considering they have been reporting fairly flat revenues over the past few quarters. That is the reason I picked some up during the recent drop. Too bad I only got a small fill.
I thought it interesting that Merriman had lower 2010 prediction, while with a higher multiple.
Shows that Roth's target price is ridiculous. They predicted a higher 2010 earnings, but assigned the stock a lower multiple. What planet are they from?
Actually I was talking about today's volume. Measly 500 shares.
I'm also trading his college fund, so hope I can do a better job than the "pros".
My kids piggy bank has more money...