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Hog, you may not have to worry, but at #10, I have 14 more trading days to worry about.
Tmcal
CHAR Value
I also hope the CHAR takeout is based on value of Reserves, but Reserves can be disputed. The more conservative approach is to look at the recent Nelson precedent.
Tmcal
CHAR
Company officers remain in place. I believe the news is exactly what was expected. I don't think the Lukoil Group will wait a long time to make a buyout. Supposedly, Nelson was priced at 25% above the six month average price. That six month average price is just over $4.40 right now, which would result in a $5.50 offer on the same lowball terms. If they wait until January, and the average price of CHAR averges $5.00 for the next month, the average six-month price will be approximately $4.84, and the 25% premium would result in an approximate $6.05 low-ball offer. Since the average price in July was approx. $3.50, waiting even longer could result in an even higher price.
Remember, in late January or early February, CHAR earnings and reserve updates will become available. I don't think they will wait that long. In any case, I think CHAR is a pretty safe hold with upside potential from here.
Tmcal
Mikes, good question, but i think that would have to open the door to some other favorites like DNO and PAR on the Oslo exchange.
Len and SSK:
Great new rules. Shorter contest will, as you say, allow 3 contests a year, with a break in between each, it may help HWEB (as if he needs any help), and I believe it will increase the overall interest.
Allowing one trade and one freeze should be manageable and add interest. The freeze is just like a sale order, except you don't have to go to cash, you can take time to evaluate a trade. It won't avoid the "whai" fiascos, but at least it lets those who have them continue on in the contest.
I can see where you need some timing rules as to when you communicate/announce a trade or a freeze, and what closing price date is applicable to that announcement.
Also, can you clarify up front how a merger or acquisition is handled, does one have to use a trade or freeze to move on, and what if they have already used their trade or freeze?
Just some thoughts. Good Job Guys.
Tmcal
MVCO awarded $18.5 million of new contracts. Moving up nicely.
Tmcal
DAAT They are good old boys, they can add and subtract, but they just don't like to divide. Seriously, the best months should be ahead for DAAT.
MVCO
Wade, MVCO has become my largest position in terms of market value and I can't see why the company can't have a number of consecutive quarters like the last one with at least a 10% growth rate. It is undervalued and that will be recognized over the next 6 months. The earnings PR gave indications of their strategy for both construction services and the construction materials sub it controls, and I like the Nevada and Arizona markets.
Tmcal
VPHM - Researcher
Yahoo post not accurate. There were only 6 cohorts. There were only 3 dropouts of 120, and they were explained. Next test is to be in combination with the other drug. Overall, report did not seem negative.
Tmcal
ERS Earnings at $.24 for quarter.
FORT LEE, N.J., Nov. 10 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Empire Resources, Inc. (Amex: ERS - News), a distributor of value added, semi-finished aluminum products, today announced net income for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2005 of $2,388,000 and $7,134,000 as compared to $1,415,000 and $3,614,000 for the same periods in 2004. Net income for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2005 increased to $0.24 and $0.72 per share on a fully diluted basis, as compared to $0.14 and $0.36 per share on a fully diluted basis for the same period in 2004.
ADVERTISEMENT
Net sales for the three and nine months were $90,777,000 and $260,237,000 as compared to $53,809,000 and $159,599,000 for the same periods in 2004. Net sales increased 69% for the three month period and 63% for the nine month period as compared to the prior year.
CHAR/NLG
The following is from the Reuters article of 9/30/05:
LUKOIL said it already had agreement from 65 percent of Nelson shareholders that they would sell their stakes. It would extend the offer to minority shareholders at the same price.
"This price represents a premium of 27.5 percent to the six-month average trading price of Nelson," said LUKOIL.
But some analysts were surprised at the level of the offer.
"It is 37 percent below our fair value, and the reasons for this discount are not clear," said Dmitry Lukashov of Aton brokerage, noting Nelson's young fields offered great potential.
"We will recommend to those of our clients who are shareholders in Nelson, to vote against
This was how they justified the takeunder price.
CHAR
Lukoil paid 27.5% above the 6-month average trading price for Nelson. The average trading price for CHAR for the past 6 months is about 3.9. A 27.5% premium would be approx. $5/share. Any price based upon proven reserves would be even higher. Seems like the firesale may be overdone.
Tmcal
DNO, PAR and CNR drop
Can't find news. Where is Researcher? I am guessing some sort of windfall profits tax in Norway, or something like that.
Tmcal
GSCP
Just hit 3.00 on 30,000 shares.
Tmcal
Hog-
Your DAAT and MCZ have a good chance of coming back before the end of the contest since they are usually recognized as having big Q4 performance. Whether the run starts early before earnings can be announced is the big question.
It is nice to have a little more distance between myself and Mr. Sheep.
Take care.
Tmcal
Mikes - DFC
Yes, I am still holding it. Had a large position back from the DLTO days also, but the decent sized position I still own has been the "dead" or laggard part of my portfolio for the past 18 months. I have gradually been selling/trading when it moves above 10, and I expect another move from here (8.5) toward 10 in the next month as we move toward earnings. Unfortuneately, I don't think we will see it stay in double digits for another 4 to 7 months, depending on how it performs as the mortgage market slows. I was disappointed when the company did not double the dividend this past quarter. I'll cross my fingers for the next dividend announcement.
Tmcal
RR Re:DNO
Thanks again for pounding the table on this one over the past 6 months. A while back I was able to find their English language web site and signed up for email updates. I was surprised to receive 3 separate emails from the company this morning. Looks like they are staying busy, and just like all E&Ps they are having their ups and downs. Fortuneately, more ups than downs to this point.
Thanks again.
Tmcal
SVLF
Len, good questions. In any case, I also wonder how much of today's volume came from this board. Also, Uriah, did you post your news on any other boards? If not, a large chunk of the initial volume came from here, then there was a lull and fallback, and the price meandered into the close.
You would think the company would have come out with a news release. Maybe they will get around to it tomorrow. In any case, I expect more action tomorrow.
Tmcal
Overtaken by Mr. Sheep:
Well I finally get to experience the joys of the back end of Mr. Sheep. Not a pleasant experience. Actually, I was expecting it sooner or later, since my Pick 6 is only operating on 5 cylinders since PKZ "agreed to be acquired".
Len, I was looking for the posts where we discussed the treatment of acquisitions in the contest. Thanks if you can refer me to them; I will look again.
CWS9, you are looking good. I like your picks since we share two (ASPN and CHAR), and despite recently selling AOB, I still own your other 3 picks. I will be surprised if my 3 remaining picks can outperform your other 4 picks. Good luck.
IPII
By the end of the day, over 100% of the total shares of IPII will have turned over, and I didn't sell any. I guess I should start trading the shares like everyone else.
Tmcal6
DFNS.ob
Gains for DFNS is probably due to reaction to the hit to DHB.
Tmcal6
CHAR.ob
Sold off to the $5.50 area in first 30 minutes this a.m. but has recovered already to the $5.90 area. CHAR is not "frothy", it is just beginning to approach fair value. Earnings increased from $.10 in Q1 to $.17 in Q2 and could be $.23 to $.25 in the current quarter. Even though the company has not indicated it is applying for an exchange listing, I think they could surprise everyone. CHAR could easily trade at $8-$10 by yearend.
Tmcal6
MVCO
Looks like a real value with the ASK at @ $9.66. Earned $.25 last quarter and had cash value of about $1.90/share and stockholder equity of about $3.70/share as of June 30 with only 3.6 million shares outstanding. IPO'd the construction materials business this week, and the $17+ million of proceeds will stay with RMX, the new company, to pay down debt and fund operations. MVCO held onto 2 million shares that at current price are worth $25.6 million, or $7/share. With the value of cash and the RMX shares approaching $9/share, the construction services business is being priced at less than $1/share. I think it is worth a lot more than that and could have strong earnings on its own.
Tmcal6
GMOS
Haven't bought the stock yet, but just this morning at about 5:30 a.m. on the way to work I saw a lady on a neat little motorbike and thought I may consider buying one for my commute to work. I am 55 and large (~250), but I live in San Francisco and commute across GG Bridge to Sausalito. Will check out toll situation for motorbikes on GG bridge. Parking in San Francisco would not be a problem like it is for second car. However, my wife may not like it unless I increase my insurance. LOL
Tmcal6
OT - VPHM
I feel conflicted regarding the positive news for one of my pick six stocks, vphm, which just announced a price hike on it's new drug Vancocin of @ 22%. It is a PSL1 pick for me, I own a decent size position, and I am happy the stock will be moving up tomorrow (it moved up @ $.87 aftermarket), but I felt the stock would do well without the drug price increase. The company announced strong earnings a week ago, it raised the price of the drug about 28% about 3-4 months ago, and the company seems to be only increasing the price because they can.
I guess that is the nature of our capitalist system and our health care system, but it is also indicative of the causes of ridiculous increases in the cost of health care over the last 10 years and one of the reasons more and more americans cannot afford health care insurance.
Sure, I can afford ridiculous health care costs, but somehow the system has to change.
Tmcal6
2morrowsgains: CHAR
Agree with comments. CHAR should have a great quarter coming up and it could continue into next year. I will be buying more if it dips again.
Tmcal6
Wade - GACF
Ditto on good news, just caution that aircraft maintenance is a competitive, slim margin business; it should help that this business will operate in Mexico with a separate subsidiary. Take a look at TMAS.ob for comparisons. It will be interesting to see market reaction to this news and rather diappointing $.02/share last quarter.
Tmcal6
IPII
Next quarter, gross revenues may be less, but net revenues will be up. The "division" and assets they sold will add to the bottom line, and it was a weak performing area of their business. Next quarter should improve over this quarter without the one-time item, which in itself could add $.40 to earnings. Too late to sale my small remaining position, will wait for next quarter.
Tmcal6
ipii
Fully diluted and after tax of $.40 verses $.40 last year. Net operating income up 26%, but tax rate increased from approx. 26% last year to 36% this quarter. Already dropped $6 premarket.
Tmcal6
Is the midweek discontinued? Is SSK working/travelling/vacationing, or just tired? Hope you are OK SSK. Miss your posts on this and the VM Main.
TVOC - It is one of the least expensive "U.S." oil companies. That is why the PE seems cheap.
IPII - May report earnings on Friday. I started to buy back in today. I still think it could report $.60 for the quarter.
Tmcal6
CHAR and EGY
CHAR.ob close at 4.80 on another high of the year with earnings coming out Friday or Monday.
EGY was also strong today (closed at 4.72) and presents tomorrow in Denver at an O&G conference, I belive the same one as FTK.
Tmcal6
Yield and RR99:
Like others, thanks Yield for RVP. I wish I bought more shortly after the open.
RR99 - Thanks for DNO. I took a flyer back in early March and bought DNO through the international desk at Schwab, with a $250 transaction fee. Counting the cash and share dividend, I now have a triple. With earnings coming out shortly, I hope they make many kroner.
Tmcal6
CHAR
up .32 to 4.65
STV
Wade, I think STV is fairly valued at this level. It does have a tax loss carryforward asset, but the company reports both pre-tax and post-tax (as if they were paying taxes) and in the first quarter that was $.13 and $.09 per diluted share. Large construction contracts take time to move earnings to the bottom line and it is one of the most litigious industries around. Yes, STV is winning contracts, but it is also completing contracts. The company does not report enough information on existing contracts to make any good determinations on earnings going forward.
Tmcal6
Wade--STV
While it is great that there is a new reauthorized $286B transportation bill, the bill covers 6 years and does not represent anywhere near that amount of new dollars for transportation. The federal flow of funds, i.e., our motor fuel taxes, have continued to flow from the feds to the states under the extensions of the prior transportation bill. Sure there are some new projects and new pork in the bill, but it will not significantly increase federal funding for transportation.
Tmcal6
Len & Knowledge:
Knowledge, Congratulations on taking the lead. I, like Len, hope you have all in your portfolio. I have small positions in both SMID and TMFZ. Good luck.
Len, did you notice that GFRP moved from $1.45 on 7/21 to $3.55 at the close on 8/5 on a monstrous total volume of 31,700 shares traded. I think I just recognized a possible winning strategy for the next contest. Pick low priced stocks that have large price changes with low volume that you are comfortable owning in your own portfolio. Accumulate a reasonably sized position in the stocks during the month before the start of the next contest. A day or two before the start, dump the shares and drive the price down. Buy back your position and more during the six month contest period. Win the contest!!! LOL
CHAR--
The past three quarters it has posted earnings on either a Friday or Monday, at mid-month. Could either be this coming Friday or the following Monday.
CHAR should have blowout earnings with a strong 05 to 04 quarterly comparison. I expect they will earn $.13 compared to $.03 last year, and $.10 last quarter, with expectations for growth going forward.
At $4.20, it is still a bargain.
Tmcal6
Disclosure: Recently sold ASPN, BSIC and PKZ and currently hold EGY, CHAR and DNO.
RR99
ASPN - I had the same thought as you regarding ASPN and PR marchine. I was only surprised to see you posting (talking) to yourself. LOL
What do I mean by that statement?
IPII
Moving up in anticipation of strong earnings possibly late next week. Price above $30. Earnings could be $.50 to $.60 and the momo crowd likes this low floater.
Tmcal6