Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Hi Toofuzzy, I'm not sure what you are referring to. I was talking about what an "expert" said was an indicator for market top, 10 period simple moving average. What he says is that when the 10 SMA closes below the monthly close that is one of three indicators of market top being hit.
All moving averages, both SMA and EMA, depend on the chart one is looking at, daily, weekly or monthly. So a 10 SMA on a monthly chart is the average of the last 10 months compared to the closing of the month being looked at.
In my very brief looking at the possible indicators of the market bottom it appears that this approach does not work. I tried 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 SMA and the 4 was closest, taking 9 months after the bottom for SPY to close above the SMA.
Oh, well, I'll keep looking.
Best,
Allen
Thanks Tom.
On looking at the indicators I mentioned in my last post, the monthly close below the 10 simple moving average seems to work in most cases I have tried so far. We'll see going forward. Unfortunately StockCharts doesn't do monthly but Yahoo has added "Comparisons" and "Indicators" to their full sized charts and one can do monthly there.
Actually it is somewhat easier to play with than StockCharts but doesn't have as many possibilities to chose from.
Best,
Allen
Hi K, My cash is a bit over 40% and it is only that low because I bought BND and IJR. BND because of low volatility and IJR because it has outpaced the index it follows since inception and seems to have reasonable volatility.
Bizarre as it may seem I've made a hair over 52%/year in the last 6 weeks with it. That scares the s#$% out me as it seems too quick.
However, I have a small inherited IRA that is too small to use for an effective AIM position so I bought, sort of AIM style, MORL, partly because the price meant I could have a couple of hundred shares and partly because it pays a good dividend of around 17%/year. It went down from my original price so I added more and added more when it went down some more. This brought my price per share below what it was selling for about 6 weeks ago, so I sold it all for not all that much profit on the sale, but with the dividends I made about $1362 on an investment of $3500, or about 15%/year in 2.25 years. I sold it all and since I did not want hit the wash sale problem I bought SMHD and sold it 29 days later for a net of $360 plus $55 dividend, 10.04%, or about 233%/year! Yowser. The combo of the two added almost 22% to the total account. I don't expect that to happen ever again.
As to the market and where it is headed, one of the "experts" says to watch out for three things as potential clues for market top. The first on is that there is a period of small ups and downs on the daily chart for the S&P 500 before a jump up and then a combo up/down/up/down where the last down is below the start up point. The second is on the weekly chart where the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 SMA and the third is on the monthly chart where the monthly close is below the 10 SMA. Haven't seen all three yet and it may not even be real as we all know that "experts" are right only 47% of the time.
Looking at past grizzly bear markets it does seem true that there is a low volatility period before the final ramp up. I have noticed a couple of people commenting about low volatility recently.
I've not had time to gather the data about the other two signals.
Best,
Allen
Hi Karw, It was your comment, "...the cash part of the UBA is now at an all time high..." that twisted my alleged brain in a new direction, i.e., what am I going to do with my large cash reserves while waiting for the next grizzly bear market, and how am I going to know it is actually near bottom, as well as the media's bandwagon effect that often turns out wrong?
A great example of that is Tom Gentile predicted, "On September 18, the Markets Will Turn...", and later in his post, "Overall, we are looking at bullish moves the first two weeks of September. But After
September 18, the markets are going to reverse..." well, did they?
Looking at just one or two items is most likely to lead to a misfire as correlation between positions is not always that good. Think of the cycle pattern of what does well in what part of the economic cycle.
The other part that I thank you for is your listing of the ETFs you were trading and your discussion of the two different international ones and why you thought one might be better than the other. Those kinds of discussions are most useful as they provide different perspectives, in effect helping to remove the tunnel vision we all can tend to from time to time/
Anyway, PSEC is in my list and has been only so-so, but over time I think it will do better. I got into it in the wrong part of the cycle, which is part of the reason I looked back 3 years, not just 52 weeks in the spreadsheet.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, I got to thinking (dangerous) that it would be nice to have an easy way to see where prices were for a list of potential positions and be able to see where and in what direction the price is headed so I created a spreadsheet which looks like this:
The column tiles have been shortened.
https://finance.yahoo.com/d/quotes.csv?s=VOO+VTV+VBR+EFV+VYMI+PSCE&f=t1sd1l1pc1jj6vn
Symbol Date 3 Yr Low Inflated Cur. Date Price 52 W Low % Chg from 52 W. Low
VOO 9/1/2015 $175.71 $180.66 10/3/2017 $232.20 $191.32 21.4%
VTV 9/1/2015 $76.75 $78.91 10/3/2017 $100.68 $84.58 19.0%
VBR 1/1/2016 $92.48 $94.40 10/3/2017 $129.35 $104.94 23.3%
EFV 2/1/2016 $41.84 $42.71 10/3/2017 $54.63 $44.81 21.9%
VYMI 3/1/2016 $53.25 $54.35 10/3/2017 $65.90 $54.37 21.2%
PSCE 2/1/2016 $12.00 $12.25 10/3/2017 $14.78 $11.37 30.0%
Hi Toofuzzy,
Hi Tom, Yeah, Ford, and a lot of others as well, don't have all that much volatility to make them good positions for AIM.
What I have noticed, overall, that lower price positions tend to have better volatility, but, as always, there are ones like Ford that are cheap but you don't get much trading with them.
Currently I'm playing with doubling the actual share trade size compared to the 5% in the spreadsheet. This seems to create more trades but since you have to fake out the spreadsheet buy/sell prices I'm not sure as I've only tried a couple of positions so far.
Then there are the 2x ETFs such as MVV and 3x ETFs such as TQQQ which seem to be better overall. Personally the 3xs frighten me in this market as it seems to waffle up and down in a fairly narrow range. IJR has been doing quite well for me with a 42% annual rate. I know that won't keep up but it has been a nice ride since I started it a couple of months back. It is also one of the very few SPDRs that has returns since its inception that is better than the index it follows.
The next one I'm checking out is:1 Year 3 year 5 year 10 year Since Inception
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF IJR 22.42% 9.28% 15.44% 8.38% 10.10% 5/22/2000
S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index 21.79% 8.37% 15.44% 7.59% 9.92% 9/25/2000
Anyway, I keep digging.1 Year 3 year 5 year 10 year Since Inception
SPDR® S&P® 600 Small Cap Value ETF SLYV 21.76% 8.21% 15.23% 8.01% 11.55% 9/25/2000
S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index 21.79% 8.37% 15.44% 7.59% 9.92% 9/25/2000
Hi hrfanmike, Interesting list. One of them, IJR, is used by Jason Kelly in his 3% Signal system. There is a great deal of similarity to his approach and AIM overall.
The ones you have seem to have enough volatility to make them worthwhile for AIMing.
Best,
Allen
Hi Tom (Not really that old an AIM guy - Happy Birthday!) Most excellent suggestion but I'm finding two problems. The first is finding the best index to match it to and the second is that they don't have similar enough start dates to make the comparison likely to be accurate.
For example:
SPDR® S&P® Health Care Services ETF XHS Ten year N/A 19.28% 9/28/2011
Guggenheim S&P 500® Equal Weight Health Care ETF RYH Ten year 12.53% 13.13% 11/1/2006
S&P Health Care Services Select Industry Index Ten year N/A 19.73% 9/28/2011
Is RYH lower because it started before the 2008/9 crash which would bring the average down compared to XHS?
The opposite is true of:
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund XLP 6.39% 12/16/1998
Guggenheim S&P 500® Equal Weight Consumer Staples ETF RHS 11.46% 11/1/2006
Consumer Staples Select Sector Index 6.64% 12/16/1998
where XLP went through at the 2000/2 crash in addition to the 2008/9 one compared to RHS. Does this make a difference. I'm not sure, but I'm guessing it is so.
Of course, your insight to the issue is most welcome.
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, Alas, I do not know which of the 2030 ETFs/ETNs that are in the ETFdb.com list that follow indexes nor do I know how to find out that information, which is why I asked.
Yes, comparison is good, especially when one is looking at those that have been around through a down turn or two:
SPDR® S&P® 600 Small Cap ETF SLY 10.10% 11/8/2005
SPDR® S&P® 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF MDYG 10.20% 11/8/2005
SPDR® S&P® 600 Small Cap Value ETF SLYV 11.55% 9/25/2000
These three, which beat the index they follow, made 5.931%/year, 6.219%/year and 6.356%/year. However, because of the big dip in 2008/9 you had to be 50% cash with a minimum share sale of ~10%, 0% sell safe and a 5% buy safe in order to avoid running out of cash in early 2009.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, Thanks but I don't see where the ETFs are compared to the index they are following like the SPDRS do:
SPDR® S&P® 500 High Dividend ETF - SPYD 14.95% 10/21/2015
S&P 500 High Dividend Index 15.16% 10/21/2015
SPDR® S&P® Dividend ETF - SDY 8.74% 11/8/2005
S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index 9.04%11/8/2005
SPDR® S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF - EDIV -3.33% 2/23/2011
S&P Emerging Markets Dividend Opportunities Index -1.89% 2/23/2011
(I've deleted periodic return %s to simplify the display. The red %s are returns since inception compared to the index starting at the the date after the red %'s.)
What I am looking for is the return of the ETF versus the index since inception.
The following all beat the index they follow.
SPDR® MSCI World StrategicFactorsSM ETF QWLD 2.63% 1/10/2007
SPDR® MSCI ACWI IMI ETF ACIM 9.49% 2/27/2012
SPDR® S&P® International Small Cap ETF GWX 2.99% 4/20/2007
SPDR® EURO STOXX 50® Currency Hedged ETF HFEZ 4.00% 6/9/2015
SPDR® EURO STOXX 50® ETF FEZ 6.61% 10/15/2002
SPDR® S&P® International Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF IPD 7.28% 7/16/2008
SPDR® S&P® International Utilities Sector ETF IPU -2.09% 7/16/2008
SPDR® MFS Systematic Core Equity ETF SYE 12.42% 1/8/2014
SPDR Russell 2000® ETF TWOK 10.44% 7/8/2013
SPDR® S&P® 600 Small Cap ETF SLY 10.10% 11/8/2005
SPDR® MFS Systematic Growth Equity ETF SYG 13.54% 1/8/2014
SPDR® MFS Systematic Value Equity ETF SYV 10.25% 1/8/2014
SPDR® S&P® 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF MDYG 10.20% 11/8/2005
SPDR® S&P® 600 Small Cap Value ETF SLYV 11.55% 9/25/2000
SPDR® S&P® Metals & Mining ETF XME -2.09% 6/19/2006
SPDR® MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target ETF LOWC 5.97% 11/25/2014
SPDR® MSCI EAFE Fossil Fuel Reserves Free ETF EFAX 15.56% 10/24/2016
SPDR® Dow Jones® Global Real Estate ETF RWO 3.71% 5/7/2008
SPDR® S&P® Global Natural Resources ETF GNR -0.35% 9/13/2010
SPDR® DoubleLine® Short Duration Total Return Tactical ETF STOT 1.80% 4/13/2016
SPDR® DoubleLine® Total Return Tactical ETF TOTL 2.21% 2/23/2015
SPDR® SSGA Ultra Short Term Bond ETF ULST 0.76% 10/9/2013
SPDR® DoubleLine® Emerging Markets Fixed Income ETF EMTL 9.35% 4/13/2016
One hell of a range, -2.09% to +15.56%!
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Gang, I have a list of Index SPDRS (https://us.spdrs.com/product/) that compares the ETF to the index it is following. There are 151 on the list and only 25 beat the index they follow since inception, mostly by only a small amount - typically by 0.2%-0.7%. Not all that much but worth considering. The costs of them are all 0.10% or above, not as good as the lowest at around 0.05%-0.07% but the results are what counts.
Does anyone know if there is a similar list for index ETFs other than SPDRS? If so, where is it?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi hrfanmike, I appreciate your thanks, but the reality is that Tom and others have much more experience with AIM than I do. I just am the type of person who tries a variety of approaches to any method I come across. This is because of my background in information security analysis and attempting to see what might have been missed as a system was being set up.
One example was finding a very simple error in a UDP (User Datagram Protocol) device where, for 5 years they had not found the error, that they had used a C language program "long" instead of a "longlong" which was causing one of the client's machine to lock up every few months. How they missed it I have no clue and they did not believe me when I suggested that was the error because I am not a programmer, just an analyst who plays around with things.
The difference between a "long" and a "longlong" in the C language is that a "long" is a 32 bit size, ~4 gigabytes, (2 to the power of 31) whereas a "longlong" is 64 bit size, ~4 exabytes (2 to the power of 63).
Anyway, thanks again, and Best,
Allen
Hi hrfanmike, What you are missing is that the sale price is a combo of the minimum shares to sell plus the Sell Safe.
Ball park the $300 is about 6 shares. I don't know how many you have so I can't tell you what percentage that is of your total. I'd guess, given the sale price of $57.50 and an 8% sell safe, that you have roughly 85 shares, give or take a few. This would mean that your % minimum share sale of $300 would be about 7% of the number of shares. Add 7% plus 8% and you get a minimum move of about 15%. $57.5/$49.98 = 1.15 times or 15% up.
Tom, (OldAIMGuy), uses 0% Sell Safe, and, I think - correct me if I'm wrong Tom - 5% minimum share sale. This would mean a sale of around $52.50 or about 5% up from the purchase price of $49.98.
Personally I try to use a minimum dollar sale of $500 and a minimum dollar value of $10,000 of shares with a cash amount of $2000. This would be about 200 shares and 5% would be about 10 shares to get to $500. The Sale price would then be about $52.63 for 10 shares using the online calculator or Lou's spreadsheet version.
If you like I can send you the spreadsheet calculator to play with. I also have a couple of other calculators that are similar but give slightly different results.
Drop me a note at 60e20f21@opayq.com and I'll be happy to send it to you so you can see how the various elements work together.
Best,
Allen
Yeah Tom, what is that neat software you are using? How can we all get copies to use?
Best,
Allen
Hi Bob. Thanks, but I've never heard that reference before. Oh well, learn something new every day, hopefully.
What do you think are they going to call the next major crash?
Best,
Allen
Hi Bob, Thanks for the analysis. Quite helpful in understanding the (X)x positions. BTW, maybe my brain is still on vacation but, what is GRC?
As to 1.5x, 2x, or 2.5x being the best leverage position to trade, if you have 5 people in a room talking about this I'd bet there are at least 7 opinions being floated about.
As to timing, it is clear that that is critical. The issue is how to implement it. AIMs approach works, especially if one delays buys in a choppy market like we have now. Jason Kelly's 3% Signal is another variation and I have heard of one, can't recall who, which suggested setting targets and selling 1/4 or 1/3 at each target on the way up. I'm sure there are others as well.
What I don't see, except here, is what to do when the market starts to fall, as will always happen.
Using the split buying - 1/3 now, 1/3 later and 1/3 when you think the bottom is very near or just past is one good approach. In a 50% total down market, similar to the last two bear markets would result in, assuming $50 peak price, buying at ~15% off peak using standard AIM settings, with the next buy at roughly 25% off peak and the following at roughly 35% off peak because AIM has a tendency to shorten the spacing on both buy and sell trends. Your price would be about $37.50, a long ways from the $25 bottom.
However, if one broke it down 1/4 at each step you'd wind up at approximately $35, a bit better but still 40% above bottom.
I'm not sure how to fix the spreadsheet so it would repeat buy at the same ~15% drop each time.
Another approach could be if one combined the split buys with apportioning the amount bought at each step, say 15%, 20% 25% and 30% you'd wind up with 273 shares at a price of, assuming you were putting $10,000 into the trade, ~$32.76/share, a bit better, only ~31% above the bottom, and still have ~$1000 left in cash to put to use using Orcroft's measure.
The advantage of an approach like this is that one never knows when or where the bottom will be. It is is just a "market correction" of 20-30% you'd get some of the benefit.
A key potential problem with Orcroft's approach is how tightly do you monitor the prices to find the second up tick from the bottom. Given the common volatility of markets as they bounce back up, doing it monthly could cause you to miss a very big portion of the recovery. Quarterly would likely make you miss the bulk of the move up. So does one look at it daily? I don't think so as the day to day volatility would likely mask where the bottom was. Weekly? I'm not sure. On one test it worked well but on another id did not so I'm not sure.
Best,
Allen
Hi Firebird400, Have you looked at SDLP for your Pocket Change Portfolio? It looks volatile enough to make for a number of trades each year, both buy and sell.
Best,
Allen
Hi Clive,
Thanks for the rundown on all that. I wasn't saying it was better for all time to come, just they were making an interesting argument with their charts and such.
Yeah, rebalancing is key to survival because it helps you keep the percentage you have in riskier positions down to a "reasonable" level.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, I cam across a very interesting article that argues that 2X ETFs are a better deal than 3X.
http://ddnum.com/articles/leveragedETFs.php
I'll have to re-read it to see, but it doesn't seem to argue that volatility is the problem, but rather the add on fees that seem to be common on 3Xs.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, I switched from holding cash cash as my reserve to having 85-95% in BND as it is a commission free trade in TDAmeritrade. I'm keeping 5-15% still in cash cash so that if an AIM GTC trade hits while I'm not looking I won't have margin expense.
I'm going to look at Schwab's 231 commission free ETFs and see if I might be better off over there with a different ETF for cash holding.
Best,
Allen
Thanks Tom for the very clear explanation. It is greatly appreciated. I sort of know it but had forgotten that it was a ValueLine figure, what are the extremes as well a projection of what might be likely to happen over the next while.
One of the things we might consider are all the "experts" who are saying the market will tumble down. We know it will happen, after all what goes up must come down, right? But when is real question. Will it be after September 18th as one person says in his sales pitch for investment advice, or sometime in October as Harry Dent says, or next March as Ed Yardeni says, or next August as Kiplinger's Personal Finance article by Anne Kates Smith says in "When Will the Bull Market End?"
I was looking at ^GSPC and noticed the current very small tilt down as it is shown in a total history chart. The run up seems, overall, similar to the 2000 peak and the 2007 peak. Who knows, I sure don't.
Best,
Allen
Hi Tom, Could you please explain the
Hi Gang, Well, duh, I feel a bit stupid for not figuring this out before but just like in Word, if you put a URL in a cell it will go there once you double click and confirm you want to do it.
Yeah, Yahoo loads the data into a separate spreadsheet so you have to copy and paste to get the data where you want it. But you can have a connection like: https://finance.yahoo.com/d/quotes.csv?s=(StockSymbol)+(StockSymbol)+(StockSymbol)&f=sd1t1l1vc1pn and get all the data you might want. You just have to chose what is in the last part from the charts I posed before and it's all there for you.
One click and you've got all your positions, prices, etc..
Best,
Allen
Hi Jon, Livermore CA, about 40 miles from me, is supposed to hit 116 on Sunday, the hottest it's been since 1950!
Keep Cool,
Allen
Hi Gang, Have a great Labor Day Weekend and stay cool. It was 104 in the shade this afternoon, Yikes.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, There may well be a good reason to update to Excel 2013. There is a function called WEBSERVICE() that lets you create an auto loading spreadsheet. How to use it is at:
https://blogs.office.com/en-us/2013/03/21/use-webservice-functions-to-automatically-update-excel-2013-spreadsheets-with-online-data/
I have a spreadsheet that lets me look at things but I have to do it manually as I only have Excel 2010 and OpenOffice doesn't seem to take more than the root domain with the function HYPERLINK. I'm using it with a bunch of indexes that, hopefully, help understand where the market is at the moment. If you'd like a copy, drop me a note at 60e20f21@opayq.com.
Best,
Allen
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, here is another listing of the Yahoo API parameters, almost all overlapping but with better headings.
The ones I'm playing with are: sd1t1l1vc1pn
The downloaded CSV file does not have headings so it is best to set up a spreadsheet with the headings you are going to use and then copy and paste the downloaded data into it to make it easy to read.
Stock Pricing
a: Ask
b: Bid
b2: Ask (Real-time)
b3: Bid (Real-time)
p: Previous Close
o: Open
c1: Change
c: Change & Percent Change
c6: Change (Real-time)
k2: Change Percent (Real-time)
p2: Change in Percent
d1: Last Trade Date
d2: Trade Date
t1: Last Trade Time
Dividends
y: Dividend Yield
d: Dividend per Share
r1: Dividend Pay Date
q: Ex-Dividend Date
Averages
c8: After Hours Change (Real-time)
c3: Commission
g: Day’s Low
h: Day’s High
k1: Last Trade (Real-time) With Time
l: Last Trade (With Time)
l1: Last Trade (Price Only)
t8: 1-Year Target Price
m5: Change From 200 Day Moving Average
m6: % Change From 200 Day Moving Average
m7: Change From 50 Day Moving Average
m8: % Change From 50 Day Moving Average
m3: 50-Day Moving Average
m4: 200-Day Moving Average
Volume
v: Volume
a5: Ask Size
b6: Bid Size
k3: Last Trade Size
a2: Average Daily Volume
52-Week Pricing
k: 52-Week High
j: 52-Week Low
j5: Change From 52-Week Low
k4: Change From 52-Week High
j6: Percent Change From 52-Week Low
k5: Percent Change From 52-Week High
w: 52-Week Range
g1: Holdings Gain Percent
g3: Annualized Gain
g4: Holdings Gain
g5: Holdings Gain Percent (Real-time)
g6: Holdings Gain (Real-time)
Ticker Related Information
i: More Info
j1: Market Capitalization
j3: Market Cap (Real-time)
f6: Float Shares
n: Name
n4: Notes
s: Symbol
s1: Shares Owned
x: Stock Exchange
j2: Shares Outstanding
Financial Ratios
e: Earnings per Share
e7: EPS Estimate Current Year
e8: EPS Estimate Next Year
e9: EPS Estimate Next Quarter
b4: Book Value
j4: EBITDA
p5: Price / Sales
p6: Price / Book
r: P/E Ratio
r2: P/E Ratio (Real-time)
r5: PEG Ratio
r6: Price / EPS Estimate Current Year
r7: Price / EPS Estimate Next Year
s7: Short Ratio
Miscellaneous
t7: Ticker Trend
t6: Trade Links
i5: Order Book (Realtime)
l2: High Limit
l3: Low Limit
v1: Holdings Value
v7: Holdings Value (Realtime)
s6: Revenue
w1: Day’s Value Change
w4: Day’s Value Change (Realtime)
p1: Price Paid
m: Day’s Range
m2: Day’s Range (Realtime)
c4: Currency
Best,
Allen
Hi Tom, With a little more digging around I found a list of the parameters one can use with the Yahoo Finance API. You enter the stock symbol(s) and then just select the parameters you want and put them in the order you want them, submit the whole string and you'll get back a CSV spreadsheet.
Pricing
a: Ask
b: Bid
b2: Ask (Realtime)
b3: Bid (Realtime)
p: Previous Close
o: Open
Date
c1: Change
c: Change & Percent Change
c6: Change (Realtime)
k2: Change Percent (Realtime)
p2: Change in Percent
Averages
c8: After Hours Change (Realtime)
c3: Commission
g: Day’s Low
h: Day’s High
k1: Last Trade (Realtime) With Time
l: Last Trade (With Time)
l1: Last Trade (Price Only)
t8: 1 yr Target Price
Misc
w1: Day’s Value Change
w4: Day’s Value Change (Realtime)
p1: Price Paid
m: Day’s Range
m2: Day’s Range (Realtime)
52 Week Pricing
k: 52 Week High
j: 52 week Low
j5: Change From 52 Week Low
k4: Change From 52 week High
j6: Percent Change From 52 week Low
k5: Percent Change From 52 week High
w: 52 week Range
Volume
v: Volume
a5: Ask Size
b6: Bid Size
k3: Last Trade Size
a2: Average Daily Volume
Ratios
e: Earnings per Share
e7: EPS Estimate Current Year
e8: EPS Estimate Next Year
e9: EPS Estimate Next Quarter
b4: Book Value
j4: EBITDA
p5: Price / Sales
p6: Price / Book
r: P/E Ratio
r2: P/E Ratio (Realtime)
r5: PEG Ratio
r6: Price / EPS Estimate Current Year
r7: Price / EPS Estimate Next Year
s7: Short Ratio
Dividends
y: Dividend Yield
d: Dividend per Share
r1: Dividend Pay Date
q: Ex-Dividend Date
Date
d1: Last Trade Date
d2: Trade Date
t1: Last Trade Time
Averages
m3: 50 Day Moving Average
m4: 200 Day Moving Average
m5: Change From 200 Day Moving Average
m6: Percent Change From 200 Day Moving Average
m7: Change From 50 Day Moving Average
m8: Percent Change From 50 Day Moving Average
Misc
g1: Holdings Gain Percent
g3: Annualized Gain
g4: Holdings Gain
g5: Holdings Gain Percent (Realtime)
g6: Holdings Gain (Realtime)
Symbol Info
i: More Info
j1: Market Capitalization
j3: Market Cap (Realtime)
f6: Float Shares
n: Name
n4: Notes
s: Symbol
s1: Shares Owned
x: Stock Exchange
j2: Shares Outstanding Volume
Misc
t7: Ticker Trend
t6: Trade Links
i5: Order Book (Realtime)
l2: High Limit
l3: Low Limit
v1: Holdings Value
v7: Holdings Value (Realtime)
s6 Revenue
For Google's finance data, which apparently can be done in a Google Docs spreadsheet directly, read the following page:
https://support.google.com/docs/answer/3093281?hl=en
However, if I read it correctly, Yahoo provides more data but you do have to copy and paste.
Have fun,
Allen
Hi karw, I'm guessing the parameters are 10% buy safe, 0% sell safe, but are the stock value amounts 6% buy and 5% sell?
Thanks,
Allen
Thanks Tom, I did some fiddling and went back to August 14th to collect some closing prices of ETFs that looked like they might be going up and put them in a spreadsheet with the closing prices today just to see how it would work. Wow! Not a ton of money over the ten days, $105.38 after commissions, but annualized it came to ~15%/year. A capture of price about an hour before the market closed did much better, $217.95, ~35%/year.
This matches what I've seen many times, the prices tend to be at their lowest around 10 to 11:30 and at their highest around 2 to 3 EST.
Using this tool may help select buying/selling prices to get a bit more edge with GTC orders. Yeah, it may only be a few pennies but it might be enough to pay the commissions.
Anyone want a copy of the spreadsheet, drop me a line at 60e20f21@opayq.com
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, In digging through some old stuff I came across a potentially useful query.
https://finance.yahoo.com/d/quotes.csv?s=stock symbol+stock symbol+stock symbol+stock symbol+stock symbol+stock symbol+stock symbol&f=sd1t1l1ohgvwdyrc1pjkn
Just replace the red stock symbols with your choice that you want to check. As far as I can tell you can add as many stock symbols as you like. If you only want to check one, just delete the rest, but note that the last one has the ampersand (&) right after it.
The part in green is the following:
If you set up a spreadsheet with these headings in the first row you can copy the data from the downloaded spreadsheet under them to make it easier to follow what is happening.s Symbol
d Date
1t Time
1l Close
1o Open
h High
g Low
v Volume
w 52 Week Range Low to High
d Dividend
y Dividend Yield %
r ??? (I have not figured this one out)
c Price Change at the end of the day
1p Previous Close
j 52 Week Low
k 52 Week High
n Company Name
Hi Toofuzzy, TQQQ and QLD both are at 0.95% expenses, TQQQ is a bit over twice the volume at ~4 million a day and has a tighter bid/ask spread, TQQQ with a Bid: 104.50 Ask: 104.95, versus QLD with a Bid: 60.28 Ask: 61.45 spread.
The only real concern, given that GLD is a 2X ETF and TQQQ is a 3X ETF, is how much further down will TQQQ go compared to GLD.
Since both seem to run roughly in lockstep with SPY, one could use Orcroft's delayed buy approach to chose which one to get into. But, then again, if you have enough money you could do both, especially if you used LD-AIM.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, True, but TQQQ has not been around long enough for AAII to rate it for both bull and bear markets which is what I was basing my analysis on. Looking at the shorter term as listed it may well be better than QLD as every column it is listed in it beats QLD. I used QLD because it had the best bull market record and a bear market record.
TQQQ has hit ~2503% since it started in February 2010, so its return per year is higher than QLD, with a ~39%/year gain versus TQQQ at ~58%/year from low in July 2010 until the high in July of this year. It's down to ~$105 now so who knows.
Best,
Allen
.
Hi Gang, Talk about volatility! I was reviewing the AAII Journal ETF Guide and noticed QLD has a history of up 1965.5% as a bull market response and an 80.6% bear market drop according to their chart. Wow.
Taking SPY as a general indicator of the whole market, it hit end of day bottom on March 9th, 2009 at $68.11, down from October 9th, 2007 at $156.48. Currently SPY is at $242.71 or 355.45% up from market bottom.
QLD also end of day bottom on March 9th 2009 at $2.45, down from October, 31st, 2007 at $15.30875. Currently QLD is at $60.639999 as of yesterday. I'm not sure if that is accurate as there was a 2/1 split back on July 17th, 2017, but it might not have propagated yet. Anyway the price on the 14th was $61.49 so the range is close with it being up about 2475%. Double, triple WOW!
Given what the NBER says, taking the last three bull markets, the Peak to Peak was an average of 8.8 years and the Trough to Trough was 8.86 years. If we just take the last two the Peak to Peak was 8.7 years and the Trough to Trough was 9.125 years. Given these figures and the way the market is jumping around it seems that we are not far off the peak. They say the last Peak was December 2007 and the last Trough was June of 2009, about 19 months apart.
Okay, if we look at SPY as a single ETF that mimics the market as a whole, it hit bottom in March 2009. With that as a starting point and averaging the two figures above, you get 8.9925 years for Trough to Trough or the bottom would hit somewhere around February or March next year. My flip a coin guess it that it won't be then but some months later.
Taking the Peak to Peak, averaging the two above, you'd get 8.75 years, or October/November this year, give or take a bit. I've noticed that a number of "experts" (we all know about the CXO study about ~6600 forecasts by 68 experts, right?) are predicting October as the next peak. Given the "experts" in the study were right only 47% of the time, basically a coin toss, so it is not certain that it will happen but given the chaos around us, the coin might come up heads, but then again it is just a coin toss.
Given all this I'd check out QLD and have ample powder on hand and keep it very dry so when it comes time you won't misfire.
Just guessing, looking at the chart, I think it would out perform Buy & Hope even if B&H got in at market bottom.
Best,
Allen
Hi Lostcowboy, Thanks for the links, but, alsas, I'm not sure I'm up to it at the moment. Both time and energy are a bit in short supply at the moment, but I will keep it in mind.
The biggest problem is the differences between the way VBA is used in *.xls and *xlsm, the more recent version that runs VBA. Apparently *.xlsx does not run macros.
Best,
Allen
Hi SwampDude, Yep, just drop me a note and I'll send you what I have.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, Do any of you know anyone who knows the Excel Macro language? There is a great lit spreadsheet that the addition of the past year's dividends would be most useful.
Thanks,
Allen
Whoops, just noticed my typo in the last post. It should be: "I'm using ROUNDDOWN to avoid 50.51 shares becoming 52."
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, Yeah, I'm using ROUNDDOWN to avoid 50.51 shares becoming 56.
Best,
Allen