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Hi gang,
Well, as I go about learning as much as I can about the whole process of investing I came across:
[url]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares-and-stock-tips/11034663/Jim-Slater-50-years-on-my-formula-still-works-and-heres-some-new-share-tips.html
[/url][tag]UK Telegraph newspaper[/tag]
about a "legendary" investor, Jim Slater and his approach to investing.
So, there are a couple of tips in the article, one for Telford Homes (TEF.L) and I decided to do a backtest with BareS.xls which I have modified to make it easy to see what default AIM would do and what a Buy and Hold would do as a percentage. I can also easily change the % cash to see where the sweet spot would have been over the test period. I've been using the last 5 years, perhaps not the best as it does not include a major downdraft.
The quotes are in Lbs Sterling but AIM doesn't care. Anyway B&H wins with this one at 321.86% versus 198.62% for AIM.
For the other, Restore (RES.L), B%H wins, but not by all that much. 143.55% versus 126.95% but I had to go to 60% cash to avoid having to add money to the position. If I went 20% cash with a 10,000 GBlbs portfolio I would have had to add 11,359 GBlbs from 10/1/09 until 4/1/11 but the return - even calculating the added money over the entire 5 years rather than the 16 months it was needed - would have been much better at 192.76%
Slater's advice seems to be good on the whole given that his son runs an investment firm,
Hi AIM1979,
I would gather, given your nom-de-forum, that you've been using AIM since 1979, correct?
In which case can you give me a pointer to where one finds the Low Down AIM program/spreadsheet?
Thanks a bunch,
Allen
Crazy, man, crazy...
So here I am reading post in other AIM forums and I get to:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56538359
and start to look at the chart and am startled because the post is from 2010 but the chart is current! It shows 2012-2014, right up to August!!! It includes the ZigZag, and the rest of the stuff.
Best,
Allen
Hot tip for those just starting.
If you don't have enough money for a full AIM portfolio yet and need to DRIP using either Syncrovest of Twinvest there is an relatively easy way to do it with no broker fees and also use fractional shares by taking a look at:
https://www.loyal3.com/stocks/about-stocks
The key limitation is that when you need to sell, you must close that stock position completely. The solution is to follow the stock offline until a buy signal is given and then buy back in. This will get you back in at a lower price and increase your overall gain.
Warmest Regards,
Allen
Hi Orcoft,
Thanks for the pointer, but it does not meet my needs as it is limited in the number of months available. Do you know if the calculations are available for putting into a spreadsheet? I like to save my work and an online form does not make this easy. For me a spreadsheet with a gazillion tabs is easier.
Warmest Regards,
Allen
Hi Tom (OldAIMGuy),
Toofuzzy,
Somewhere in reading old posts I notice that you referenced a simplified spreadsheet version of AIM, not the more complete one, AIMBareS.xls, but I can't quite remember the name or which post of yours it was in. I think it was in the Q & A forum, but not sure. Do you recall it, and if so, where could I get a copy?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi OldAIMGuy,
Having painfully done a number of back tests with basic AIM by hand before I asked for good suggestions to try I couldn't quite see this. However, I just completed my second pass at ENPSX, 1/2007-12/2010, (Thanks for the suggestion!) I can sort of see this. I'm not real clear on the why of it, but I can see it. And I noticed that at the worst it lost about 30% whereas the market lost about 42%, if I recall correctly. ~7.5%/year gain annualized over the four years around the last bear market is quite good in my book.
Had I the chance and my mother would have let me help her I could have saved her a lot of grief in her final years. She was born in 1920 so the Depression was always on her horizon as something to fear. Alas, she panicked and took a big hit.
I've looked at a number of other systems and AIM seems the best overall, but even it requires some practice and tweaking to get it right.
Thanks for all the help. It is greatly appreciated.
Warmest Regards,
Allen
(ASIDE: I try to always do the same one a couple of times a couple days apart to see what errors I make doing it by hand.)
Toofuzzy wrote:
Hi PraveenP,
Which of the ~dozen books you put out in ~2012 about "Zen and..." investing, Wall Street, etc., is the best to get, covers the most ground as an advancement on "Stock Trading Riches"?
Thanks,
Allen
A general question...
Lichello and others (spreadsheets and discussions) refer to fractional shares but I don't see them as possible on my current broker's statements except for money market funds. Is this something that used to happen but no longer or is it just showing the math more precisely, not the reality of trading? It seems like the use of the short term 10, 8, 5, 4, 5, 8, 10 stock price cycle to demonstrate how it works but not the reality of the stock market. Is this correct?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Karw,
You say:
RE: Back to the market feeling 'Toppy'...
I agree, in general, with the referenced article and Grabber's commentary, with the caveat that in the past the market did strange and volatile things before a "correction" (crash). I have a copy of a book (can't put my hands on it at the moment) that was focused on business cycle investing and he commented on the "chaos at both the top and bottom of the cycle. Given this viewpoint, it seems that the events mentioned in the article fit right in.
However, because of the various bailouts and Fed prop up of business by keeping interest rates low, I suspect that it will be a while before the correction hits. In the mean time AIM should be able to take advantage of the volatility.
Best,
Allen
Hi karw,
Two questions. What version of VNG are you referring to? I found a half dozen variations at Yahoo and could not quite figure out which one it is.
The other is, what is UBA?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi TooFuzzy,
A looong time ago you said:
Hi OldAIMGuy,
(Aside - Just noticed that the book mark I've been using in the book is the receipt from the bookstore dated 4/8/2002. Wish I had read it then but life and wife got in the way.)
Another question. I assume you mean Closing Price, not Adjusted Closing Price, or does it matter?
Thanks
Allen
Thanks a WHOLE bunch. Just the ticket to practice. Also, thanks for the tip about time frame and hoe to get it easily. I've been using MarketWatch, entering each date and getting the number. Total pain.
Thanks,
Allen
When I asked...
Is the $100 a year for the added features of the message board worth the money?
Thanks,
Allen
For testing with paper trades...
I've tried a couple of stocks just because I thought I might get more volatility and therefore have more practice with the process. So far I have done IBM (too narrow a range for any action at all), Chevron (which only threw sell signals) and am struggling to find anything that has any real volatility among the Vanguard funds. Suggestions?
Also, in doing the paper trades on those two over two years I found that the description of how to in the book a bit simplistic. When I did what is in the book it seemed easy enough. However, he dealt in easy, round figures rather than the real numbers that stock of ETFs actually are, so I'm not certain I am doing it correctly. Is there an example floating around that is more real world so I can check that I'm doing it right?
Or is there a way I could have someone look over what my paperwork is?
Thanks a Bunch!
Allen
Great suggestion and method!
Thanks,
Allen
vWave calculation...
I suggest one minor correction to the description in #30219 of the vWave and one addition. You say:
Thanks Toofuzzy. Lots of help. Now how does one find the stocks types you suggest?
BTW, every time I see your name on a post I keep thinking of the kids limerick:
Fuzzy was a bear
Fuzzy had no hair
Fuzzy wasn't fuzzy
Was he?
A good friend of mine is named Fuzzy.
Hi Gang,
Thanks for your responses. They are most helpful.
I'm not totally clueless but I find it is better to not overrate my knowledge and skills. Given this I'm going to use the traditional method and do it on paper for a bit. I understand the steps (but he buried them in a bunch of verbiage) and can do a short paper trading familiarization run to confirm my understanding.
I need to get this in place sooner rather than later so my questions now boil down to these:
1) Would a paper trade on a daily basis for a month mimic a monthly close enough that this would suffice or should I do it for (x) months instead?
2) From the responses it seems that using the Vanguard approach for low cost makes the most sense, at least at first. Given the virtues of ETFs in avoiding the "single stock" risk which ones are a good place to start?
3) Does anyone besides myself think that we are nearing (6-12 months) a market peak? The reason I ask this is that if we are headed for a down slope it would seem to me to be wise to stay mostly in cash until some small signs of a turn around are seen. On the other hand what is the general feeling about trading on what is left of the current upswing?
4) Given that AIM (in its various forms and variations) is dependent on market volatility to generate a significant portion of its returns would it be a good idea to do mostly ETFs but add one or two stocks to grab some of their volatility? For example APPL is not likely to go out of business anytime soon but there a reasonable amount of volatility that would allow for profit capture. Does this make sense?
5) Should I start with just one ETF or several? I have the needed ready money to start 3 ($60k) with no problem and if I sold a few dogs (1-2% losses) I could do another 2 for one trust. The other has less ready cash so it seems to me that I should concentrate on the first to start with and gain the experience of reality there first. Does this make sense?
Thanks a whole bunch!
Allen
Hi Gang,
New kid on the block.
It's funny, but I had the 2001 edition on the shelf brand spanking new since then but never read it until this weekend. Too many life issues and take care of my mother before she died recently. Wound up with being trustee of two trusts and had to start sorting out all the issues, including the way my mother had her money set for income - but at 85+ that kinda made sense - but going forward, not wise.
Of all the stuff I've read, both books and on the net, AIM seems workable and relatively rational once you figure out what stocks to populate it with.
So, my questions are:
1) A pointer to a discussion on stock selection for AIM-HI?
2) Are there any pre-configured spreadsheets available?
3) Does any of the software like VORTEX make sense or should I just rely on my spreadsheet skills, which are fairly good?
4) Which is better, a spreadsheet per stock or all in one?
5) As a relative novice at stocks, would I be better off with individual stocks or a mutual fund of an ETF?
6) What seems to be the best return of value for time spent, daily (seems excessive to me but what do I know?), weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly? I have the time to do any of them with a limited list.
7) Where is the information about the v-wave? Pretty pictures but not at all clear about the parts and how they work together.
Enough questions for now. You can bet I'll have more as I used to be a technical writer.