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Hi Ken, You wrote that you meant MPC, not MRO so I took a look at it. It is down about 30% since December 1, 2015, steeper than MPC, but up almost that much from August 25, 2015. That is the kind of volatility AIM loves. The Beta is 1.5. But the dividend was cut from $0.5 to $0.32 ($1.64 for the year) which makes the dividend only ~4%, not 14.22%. So I went back to look what was going on.
It turns out that Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) has the 14.22% dividend and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) the ~4% dividend.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation was a spinoff from the original back in 2011.
"The first, which will keep the Marathon Oil Corporation name, will focus on exploration and productions, while the second, the Marathon Petroleum Corporation, will deal with refining, marketing and pipeline transportation. When the deal is complete, Marathon Petroleum will be the fifth largest refiner in the United States." (Source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/01/13/marathon-oil-to-split-into-two/)
Given this I'd probably go with MRO both for the higher dividend and for an even higher beta of 1.83846. Yeah, it is likely to drop more and be slow to go up in price given what is going on in the world of oil extraction.
It might actually be smart to AIM both, I'm not sure.
Best,
Allen
Hi Ken, MRO is in a hell of downward slide since September 2014, ~53%. I noticed that there has been a number of fake upward moves that failed the next day or so since last November. If oil continues to decline it looks like it will be a good buy down the road and the dividend will be quite nice.
What do you think about the long term survival of Marathon? Is it likely to be a possible buyout/merger candidate?
Thanks for your thoughts,
Allen
Hi Firebird400, What is CEFA?
Thanks Toofuzzy. I was not aware of the e-mail ability.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, The market kinda looks like 2007. Not exactly, of course, but it does seem to offer good buying opportunities.
In that vein, since 1970 there has been 8 "crashes". In each case the average return for the following 12 months following the day the market "hit bottom" was ~39% and 20% of that 39% occurred in the first 8 weeks!
Materials sector, as reported by Bloomberg, is down ~14.4% in the last three weeks. Other sectors are not down as much but all are down some.
Now that is what I call a buying opportunity, but second guessing where the "bottom" is, and how fast the sector will recover, is a fool's game.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, Yes, I've used it often in running various scenarios and seeing the end result. It would be nice if I could get the formulas to create a spreadsheet with. That way I could run multiple scenarios and not having to delete the prior version. I do this by creating multiple tabs, one for each scenario.
For the newer people on the board it is located at: http://web.archive.org/web/20120609073103id_/http://www.aim-users.com/calculator.htm
Best,
Allen
Hi Ken, you said:
Hi Tom, What is are "do not reduce" instructions"?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Alton, You said:
Hi Is7550,
Hi Toofuzzy, Most excellent thinking.
In fact it is so good I would strongly suspect that they are doing exactly what you suggest. There has to be at least one person in Saudi Arabia who is at least half as smart as you. I wonder if there is a way to see if they have done this. We might be able to take advantage of this if they are doing it by looking at whatever metric would reveal their actions by buying/selling at the appropriate times.
Best,
Allen
Hi Alton and gang, You may well be right about energy/oil might be a really good play for us at the bottom of the trading fraternity. My concern is that with oil currently at ~$30 getting to ~$20 is a hell of a long way to go, both as to price and time. I'd guess is that sitting on your hands for a while longer is the best move.
EGY is one of the reasons I say this as I sold it as a tax loss given that it went down ~50% from when I got in and it looks like it will be a fair while before it starts up. Holding it long enough to recover to where it was is almost a B&H move as it will likely be a while before it hits bottom and then how long will it take to get back to a profit level, even given that you averaged the price down as it headed down?
I think Orcroft is right, at least with the relative slow moving market oil prices. I think even some variation of Orcroft's will likely be better than buying in now.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, Recovering, no longer beet red!
In looking around for what ETFs I might want to AIM I came up with this list of low cost ones that have about 1.5 to 1 high to low or more and have enough volume.
Not much. In a day or so I'll do the same for all the ETFs.Symbol Name 52 Low Price 52 High Prev. % above 52 Week Change % Day Day
Close Low Range Change Dividend Yield Low High Volume
SCHE Schwab Emerging Markets Equity 18.37 18.93 26.85 19.51 3.05% 146.16% (0.580) (2.97)% 0 0.0 18.83 19.06 1384317
FENY Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF 16.54 17.08 24.99 17.09 3.26% 151.09% (0.010) (0.06)% 0.5 2.3 16.8 17.21 192620
DVYE iShares Emerging Markets Divide 28.72 29.38 46.73 30.11 2.30% 162.71% (0.730) (2.42)% 1 2.4 28.72 30 129455
USO United States Oil Fund 10.52 10.98 21.5 11 4.37% 204.37% (0.020) (0.18)% 0 0.0 10.82 11.42 36236708
Hi Gang, Did some tax loss harvesting with a couple of my mother's positions in both trust funds. Even though they lost basis they gave good return as a percentage of cost, just a smidgen over 9% so the total loss was under 1%.
So now I have cash to start new AIM positions. I don't really like energy given all that is going on even if it the biggest losing sector over the last 52+ weeks. The other two biggest losers over the last 52 weeks are materials at -9.8% and utilities at -9.4% according to Bloomberg's data that I see in the Sunday paper.
Given that only 3 of the 113 Sector ETFs are up today and that it has been a fairly volatile market, does it make sense to sit on my hands until it calms down and a clearer direction starts? Or are there possible positions that makes sense?
Thanks and a Very Merry New Year to all!
Allen
Hi K, Thanks for the detailed reply. My e-mail address is 60e20f21@opayq.com
BTW, gang, my reason for mentioning being sick is to remind us all that waiting for doctors to know every possible cause of why we are ill and waiting for them to be more assertive in following up when it is ongoing is not wise. Had I been more assertive in defense of my health and gone to the ER much sooner I would have saved myself 6 or more months of low grade misery.
It is not that my primary care doc was bad, she took excellent care of my mother in her last couple of years, it was that she was a "family" doctor. This has its excellent points with many aspects of aging as well as common issues from birth on, but with somewhat limited exposure to the less common problems such as male UTI, a quite uncommon event compared to female UTI, with quite different set of symptoms and much less obvious.
So, be alert and take charge of your health.
A joyous New Year to all.
All
Greetings K, Been sick so something in your Inverted-AIM has gone over my head. Sorry, but will you explain how the spreadsheet is laid out for this? Do I change the column headings, if so, what to?
Have had a low grade infection, probably since last March, and docs kept telling me allergies, not enough fiber, or some other thing that I was doing wrong and it wasn't until I went to the ER that the UTI was found. But then then they gave me Ciprofloxacin which I have apparently developed an allergy to so I broke out in massive hives and itching all over! I'm glad 2015 is almost over.
In any case, a belated Happy Christmas and a Very Merry New Year to All!
Allen
Hi Bolsaman, I loved Barcelona when I was there in 1990. Anyway, I suggest that you skip the first 35,000 or so as markets have changed and the economy of 2000 is quite different that today's.
I have found that backtesting more than about 3 years can be wrongheaded about what is good going forward.
Also I would look at http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html to see the history of business cycles. Placing today in the appropriate part of the business cycle seems to help in selecting what to trade.
In addition, take a peak at http://www.seasonalcharts.com/index.html to see what historical trends have been. Be aware that today's market does not always follow history. A prime example is the "Presidential Cycle." http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones_preelection.html
Of course this is referenced to the US so it is not likely to match up with Spain's cycles but it gives one a sense of how things have worked and might be what is happening today.
In any case, welcome to the board.
Best,
Allen
Hi JDerb, Thanks for the heads up. I called TDAmeritrade when I noticed this the other day. What they said is that the broker is going to be responsible for this going forward so, at least with them, nothing will change. I suggest you call your broker/dealer and see if they expect to make any changes.
Best,
Allen
Hi Ken, Yeah, ~0.1% expenses is about as good as one is going to get and better than almost all ETFs.
What concerns me about SPGCX is the 59%/year turnover and the high expenses relative to other funds, ~2000% higher.
But, given that Tom is the adviser for it that helps mitigate those concerns somewhat. However those elements are likely limit the potential return to less than inflation if my figures are correct.
Best,
Allen
Hi Ken, First let me thank you for posting the sells and buy you are making. It help see the market and the process from another's eyes, a very useful benefit.
Second, regarding SPGCX, why are you buying this? I looked at Yahoo's profile and see very high expenses:
Fees & Expenses
Expense SPGCX Category Avg
Annual Report Expense Ratio (net): 2.24% 1.15%
Prospectus Net Expense Ratio: 2.79% N/A
Prospectus Gross Expense Ratio 3.66% N/A
Max 12b1 Fee: 1.00% N/A
Max Front End Sales Load: N/A 5.32%
Max Deferred Sales Load: N/A 1.87%
3 Yr Expense Projection*: 1,040 474
5 Yr Expense Projection*: 1,819 774
10 Yr Expense Projection*: 3,859 1,597
Hi Tom, Please post the V-Wave stuff in the"locked" posts at the head of the list. I don't refer to the info all that often but when I do I can't quite remember the details so having a quick refresher would be most useful.
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Gang, Let's see if the Curse of Schaaf is still in effect. Take a peek at NLY, a REIT. See https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NLY+Key+Statistics for a quick overview. Dividend ~12%, low 52 week range of 9.17 - 11.65 and it has a beta of 0.361623 as well as a high volume of ~7-9 million shares per day. In addition it it has been on a down trend for quite a while.
With that low a 52 week range range one would need to adjust Buy/Sell Safe to get some action.
How about $9.00?
Best,
Allen
Hi JDerb, That is cheating! I saw the GRUB but was waiting till it got closer. Next time, watch out!
Allen
I swear, the minute I mention a position it loses a bunch! VNR is down $0.50 today. Will it bottom out and rally? Who knows, I sure don't!
Best,
Allen
Hi Ken, Speaking of nice dividends, take a peek at VNR. Currently it is ~15%. Granted it is an oil company and has lost ~2/3s of its value from its high in 2014, but doing a wild ass guess (WAG) it is not likely to lose all that much more over the next while. Of course there could be a disruptive event(s), like solar getting much cheaper, that could change this.
Over the last two and a half months the price has only moved from $9.69 to $6.41 and back up to around $8.50-$9.00. This might be enough range to do the sell high/buy low dance successfully with tighter parameters like you use.
Best,
Allen
Hi Ken, I was using the Yahoo quotes and basically got the same percentage results as you would have with your figures. 5.2% up, $8.84 to $9.30 or 4.95% from $9.30 down to $8.84.
You are absolutely correct about having to wait a looong time if you use the standard 10/10/5 figures. A while back I had a couple of posts about positions that have a narrow 52 week range such as iShares Core US Aggregate Bond (AGG) with a 52 week range of $108.04 - $112.52. Yet it is a reasonable dividend payer at ~2.44%, which beats inflation. There are many, especially ETFs, which are like this.
What is: "I set my live quotes to "montage" at my brokerage...?" I've not heard that term before. What broker are you using?
Best,
Allen
Hi, What Buy and Sell percentages are you using? The range for yesterday to today is less than 10% - low of $8.88 in the last 5 days and a high of $9.20, only about 5%.
Allen
Hi Tom, Yeah, had a buy for IRR today at $5.95.
Best,
Allen
Hi Ken, I'm not sure I agree as when rates rise so do mortgage rates and credit card rates, just for starters. So you may be getting more income but you will be paying more. Typically the rates you pay go higher than the rates you get so you wind up losers.
The interlocking nature of these type of things make them complex to understand the real results. Mostly we see the results in the rear view mirror years later. Look back at the period of super high inflation and interest rates in the 70's for one example.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy,
Yeah, I tend to agree, but that is not what I was asking about. What I wanted to know is what you thought the impact might be on the stock given that the suit alleges fraud, misrepresentation and accounting irregularities?
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, I'm curious what you think about the class action lawsuit that has started against Silver Wheaton over misstatements about taxes owed. The price has dropped from ~$15 range to ~$12 range since the lawsuit was announced.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, JCE might be a good deal for a short term trade as it has a dividend of $1.8/share with ex date of 9/11. Currently the price is $15.45 as of the close today, 9/9. However, the volume is low and the 52 week range is low, $13.13 - $18.34. Yahoo says beta is 1.12 but TDAmeritrade say 0.9. Who to believe?
I inherited it in the two trusts but I have not sold it, even though it was bought very near the high, given the excellent dividend history because the trusts both need income for current expenses for my daughter and my brother.
Best,
Allen
D$%^! I forgot to use my new favorite sign off quote on the last post so here it is.
Papageno: "What should we say now?"
Pamina: "The truth, the truth, ...even if it is a crime."
"The Magic Flute" Mozart with libretto by Schikaneder
I don't recall who did the English translation as I had used it years ago when God was a small child and Methuselah was in diapers.
Best,
Allen
Froggy's wild ride is right. For the first time ever, every single stock in the four accounts I manage are down. Not a lot but down.
Best,
Allen
Thanks Tom. Very clear now.
So the oscillator will be the place we see the volatility of of the last couple of weeks, right?
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, What do you think of VNR for a dividend producing stock for a tax protected investment? Current income is $0.1175/month, about 15% annualized on a current price ~$8.55.
Beta is only 0.81, loss in the last 52 weeks from peak price ~67% with revenue over the last 12 months of ~$5.98/share. Revenue is down ~40% over the last 12 months, cash on hand as of last quarter was only $4.13M or $0.05/share but the payout is a bit more than double that per month. They have been a steady payer of dividends but cut the dividend as of the first of 2014 by a bit less than half like many other stocks.
If one were a short term trader one could have gotten in at roughly $6.00 about a week ago and out now for a good profit but that seems much too risky for me.
My guess is that it is not likely to go out of business and it will struggle until oil goes up to $60 and then it will take several years to get to a lower debt/income ratio.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, Moving Average? Huh? What number of days/periods? Simple or exponential? And is applied to what data?
Best,
Allen
Hi OldAIMGuy, That almost covers it. The only thing is how is the "smooth" data smoothed?
On the current v-Wave, am I correct that it is not the smoothed figure?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi JDerb/OldAIMGuy; I don't understand the VWave Oscillator. Is there somewhere I can read up on it?
Thanks,
Allen