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That price target is an error.
Though that value appears in the title, nothing anywhere near that is in the article.
Go back to that site and check it out again.
On a percentage basis ...
330,000 lives by 2050 is (on a linear basis) 11,000 lives per year.
China's current population is estimated at 1.4085-billion.
On a percentage basis, that life saving (which is questionable) would be 0.00078% of the population of China every year. That's pretty close to being negligible. Stated differently, that number is so low that it might not be correct.
But, ozone also saves lives when used in the right way. Bet you didn't know that.
Ozone disinfection of vegetables is different from general fungicides for vegetables. The general fungicide is a progressive and cumulative bactericidal effect, and the bactericidal effect of ozone is rapid. When the concentration exceeds a certain threshold, the disinfection and sterilization can be completed in an instant. It is with this powerful and rapid oxidizing power that ozone can kill insects and microorganisms.
So, what do you want for supper? Vegetables exposed to ozone, or vegetables exposed to chemical fungicides?
Commercial greenhouses that grow food increase both the CO2 and ozone levels in their greenhouses.
My opinion: the earth is already overpopulated with humans. Not that anyone wants to hear my opinion, but: my opinion is that every country on earth should adopt a policy that China once had, which was to limit birth rate to one child per family, and that should be continued till total earth population goes below 1-billion.
You shouldn't follow that analyst.
Why?
He wrote:
Lowered Loss expectations.
The work "Dominate" doesn't exist in that article.
My bet is that Tesla dominates in China, not NIO.
That doesn't mean that NIO wont get some sales of their products.
NIO only shows up once in that article.
In a picture.
The rest of the article, and many pictures, was about many other auto manufacturers located in China, but from other countries.
It appears that China's government doesn't care who makes the cars as long as they are electric.
NIO's ranking at that site:
0.71 out of 5 stars
Consensus Rating:
NIO has received a consensus rating of Hold. The company's average rating score is 1.88, and is based on 1 buy rating, 5 hold ratings, and 2 sell ratings.
That's from January, 2019.
Last time I checked, this is May 2020.
NIO wrote that article.
So of course NIO is calling itself a pioneer.
What do you expect? It's an advertisement published and payed for by NIO.
Daily Short Sale Volume
One day old on the upper chart (but may update after market close -- don't remember). The thin blue line (Short Vol Ratio) looks quite normal (common).
I just don't look at it very often.
Current day on bottom chart.
https://shortvolume.com/
There is a link
to another link to the video.
I watched a few seconds of it.
I usually don't watch any of them.
I guess you're one of those.
Wrong. I don't guess any particular person owns or does not own shares. I do guess that there is a lot of fiction about NIO trades on this message board.
Anyone bragging about trades or stock positions must follow standard procedure followed on all the other more worthwhile message boards, which is: Post the buy or sell price as soon as practical after entering each trade; and in that way everyone can see that the price is very near the stock's price at the time the trade was executed.
Anything other than that is fabrication of fiction.
All the posts about stock positions that I've seen on this board are fictional.
Given that process, I don't assume anyone on this message board owns or does not own shares; but I do assume all of a particular individual's combined trading of the stock has produced nothing more than a net loss; but they cheer themselves on because they have this dream of becoming very wealthy at some unknown time in the future.
Personally, I don't think NIO ever produces a net profit until there is new leadership at the top:
The current CEO's thinking is a helter-skelter process in which he spent a lot of NIO's money (and his personal time) building a personal NIO race car and driving that in races all over the place, while also trying to build a complete company with a manufacturing facility. Then he abandons the construction of a manufacturing facility in favor of subcontracting the manufacturing of NIO cars; but because of that, the company could never become profitable.
Finally realizing that NIO must manufacture their own cars to be profitable, I've recently read that William Li is going ahead with building a manufacturing facility. But where is he going to get the money for that without further diluting ownership of the company? -- as he spent a lot of the recent new money moving existing facilities to another part of the country as that was a requirement made by the source of NIO's most recent funding agreement.
There is a link. EOM
Very destructive period.
Tsunami waves are destructive.
They happen on only downward moving prices.
Perhaps you should wait for a more constructive wave.
Think of wave theory.
You know, Elliott Wave theory. Think of an abc declining wave when you are out shopping for entry points.
Don't load at the end of the a-wave down. Instead, load at the end of the c-wave down.
And don't forget to unload at the appropriate end of an up wave. If you don't do that right, and often, you lose your shorts (and maybe some key body parts).
Considering the size of this wee beastie called NIO, it's probably best if you do this while using 30-min time intervals.
Alternative, tighter fork:
Still down on breakout, tighter fit on the inclining fork.
I'm not very good with wave theory, but on the daily, one could count 5-waves up and now the beginning of a significant abc wave down.
Or, more likely, I don't know what I am doing with those wave thingies.
Or, add the fourth (lower) inclining tine.
Forks ...
I'm not very good with them but the white one worked for a couple weeks, though one could make the argument that it didn't because the bottom tine was never touched till today.
The gap down makes me think the upward trend is cooked. But that's happened before (such as eight days ago).
Could add a fourth inclining tine at the bottom.
Forgot to mention.
NIO's share trade today was a full gap lower.
Same was true for all major indices.
But it's a Friday, so ... maybe it's just short-term fear of the weekend.
Or the general inclining trend of the major indices is over, and one should be prepared for a multi-day trend lower.
Looks like ...
NIO's momentum stopped moving forward.
Take that back. Still lots of momentum, but going in reverse.
General market versus AAL
Hard to visualize AAL going higher when the market isn't willing to.
$SPX broke below upward trend as expressed by the fork. But support isn't far below.
Follow that lower blue line (at 2,800) off the left of this chart on your own charts, then you'll see where that support comes from. I think that is a critical level to hold.
$SPX SR Chart w. AAL
The top chart is today's $SPX Sup/Res chart. The resistance line (and circles) were drawn yesterday as I expected today (being a Friday) would likely be a Down Day as traders are more likely afraid of bad things happening over a weekend.
As for the AAL chart, after an upward breakout of the declining blue line two days ago, it would be normal (and expected) to backtest that declining blue line.
Should I buy to close the $11 AAL Calls I sold as they could trend toward zero today? That would allow me to sell next Friday's Calls today and possibly get a better price today than I would get next week. Too early in the day to tell. Still have some time value to get worked off, and don't want to waste that.
finally,
someone with coherency within that thing resting upon his shoulders.
Give a stock trader a number of tools to use, and see what he does with them.
Pick all of them, but only use them coherently.
To correct your perspective;
your "What happened..." was in response to my "What happened?"
My "What happened" was not a question of mine; rather, it was a response to another person's post which was: Nice bounce here. What changed?
In other words, I was not personally asking any question. I was merely echoing (and responding to) the other person's question.
I have purchased AAL once within the last two weeks, but I've sold weekly Calls against it twice -- once last week and once this week. If the shares are not assigned at the end of this week, I'll be selling Calls against my shares again next week, but I don't know on which day. The stock will decide what day I do that.
To sum up what I do: I buy stock then sell weekly CCs against all shares sometime afterward based on how the stock is moving. If the stock is trending upward, I won't sell the current week's CCs until I expect it to top out for a short period. If after selling CCs the stock drifts back down, I may buy those Calls back and sell them again later in the same day (or week) as the stock returns back to the mode of going higher. The whole idea is to ultimately gain from the stock itself; but in the process, trade in and out of CCs to bring in extra income, and thereby reduce overall risk.
Adding one more number, Total Recovered:
124,979
That is 11.87% of total cases.
Total Covid-19 Cases in the U.S.
Total Cases: 1,053,036
Total Deaths: 61,547
After posting, rechecked numbers:
New Total Cases: 1,054,261
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
It particularly made no sense for AAL.
Stocks rarely snap higher just before earnings release unless somebody has inside information that is bullish.
Now for the judgement: AAL missed significantly reduced earnings. So all those buyers paid too much to get in ahead of earnings.
Yep -- that happens once in a while.
I found that as being quite annoying (centered in the greed side of my brain) but I got over it pretty quick because it's a relatively rare occurrence, and the only way of avoiding that all the time is to never sell CCs any of the time. That's not happening.
That drip, drip, drip of money coming in every week from selling CCs on a properly chosen stock really adds up over a year because of the compounding (and that definitely happens as I reinvest 100% all of the time, only leaving enough cash on hand so I can trade in and out of the options during the week's rather short term price movements).
Your "I keep telling you guys" statement doesn't apply to me as I've been doing this buy-wait-write-rewrite thing for years so I have pretty good control over my emotions when I miss something great (like today). I'm guessing that type of thing happens maybe a half-dozen times every year.
The good thing is that AAL is showing a lot of spunk. That's the main thing I was worried about prior to today -- that AAL would roll over again and go even lower while other airlines did better.
What happened? ...
Market decided AAL correction down is over.
I decided that on 04/21, bought AAL stock then sold that Friday's Calls against all shares on 04/22.
Those Calls expired, so I sold Calls against all shares again on Monday of this week. Those expire this Friday (assuming I don't modify the trade). Wishing I waited till today to sell those Calls, but ... it is what it is.
I do that sort of thing 100% of the time. Reduces investment risk; produces steady stream of income.
Doing that: each week brings in a few percent.
It's a "pay your own dividend" system. You'd be surprised at how quickly it compounds.
Airlines may already do something similar.
The air in a passenger jet is recirculated. New air is also brought in from outside (to replenish oxygen and reduce CO2) and the mixture is pressurized to 8,000 ft
Since there are fans somewhere that pressurizes and distributes that air throughout the airplane, that system could be modified to pass that air through ultraviolet lights that would serve to kill any bacteria in the air. For all I know, that may already be done.
As for the passengers who enter the plane, they should not be allowed any carry-ons and they could pass single file through the boarding tunnel/bridge, and those could be modified to have ultraviolet lights and blowers as a sort of dry not-so-naked showering of the passengers as they board.
You'd be surprised at all the warped images going through my head as I write these things -- just one of them had naked people passing through the boarding tunnel, LOL. Judging from the majority of passengers I've flown with, I would not want to see that. But I think it's a grand idea for all of the stewardesses! That might also increase the number of people wanting to travel by air.
Top-down Strategies
For newcomers, managing stock trades is not much unlike managing the response to a flu pandemic caused by a new and untested virus, particularly one having no guaranteed cure.
In either arena newcomers of their management don't do very well -- they have no clear and effective plan for lack of experience. For a new species of virus everyone is a newcomer.
We all know that the stock market finally took its plunge; not just because it was getting overpriced under the best of conditions but also because of the virus and how it would adversely affect economic activity. I still wanted to trade stocks so I decided the best stocks to choose would have to be in the medical sector as some components of that sector ought to do very well as the virus pandemic took control. So I did that, traded healthcare stocks until the stocks I chose reached what I thought would be their high plateau at which gains would be harder to obtain. Reaching that, I needed a new plan.
Bingo! Would you like to get on a very large passenger jet where everybody sits in cramped quarters and breaths the same air? I wouldn't even want to go to the airport. Some airline stocks have fallen to 30% of what they were. That takes a 333% rise to just break even. I want some of that. I wont be a pig about it and would be happy with only a third of that this year.
If I was smarter I would have started earlier and selected an airline that only hauls cargo as they have already recovered quite a bit.
I'm more cautious on that subject.
Looking at Daily Cases (lower right) that app shows new cases in this country going up and down every few days but otherwise staying relatively flat for a few weeks; but on average over the longer period still climbing (primarily due to the early days which are part of the average but lower count).
Looking at Confirmed or Logarithmic case count, it's still in a steep climb in the US.
If you look around at the same type of data for other countries, there are some that have that average as being flat or in significant decline. That should happen here pretty soon as people start spending more time outside -- viruses are buck naked and don't do well in ultraviolet light (AKA sunny summer days). For anyone wanting more UV, go to the high altitude states. I've actually gotten sunburned on the high plains of Colorado at 4,700 ft. after spending the whole day under the clouds and even having snow fall on me. Go figure. Want more of that UV stuff? Go to the mountains and add a few more thousand feet of altitude.
Over the last few days, been looking around for sectors to trade (and trying them out) and thought I should look at the ugliest places -- eventually more upside.
Sort of decided the airlines would be a good place to go -- they're all beat up and bloodied. But we can't live without them. My early trades tend to last a week. Especially when trading flat or slightly declining stocks ... buy the stock, sell the Calls. That pretty much puts a collar on Risk -- a good name for a guard dog. Tame it down a bit, Risky. Once the stock starts to trend up, tweak the controls. Sort of like learning how to run a backhoe and make it look easy without tearing up the neighborhood.
COVID-19 Monitoring Application
Created and maintained by: Johns Hopkins University and Medicine
Coronavirus Resource Center
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The above link is online software, free for anyone to monitor the progress of COVID-19. I've been using it for weeks. It is regularly updated/improved.
Have questions?
Ask.
Doing fine.
Watching the monitor, and sometimes glancing out a pair of windows behind the monitor. Watching trees grow, leaves shuffling in the breeze on the side of a mountain 75-yards out; birds chirping; squirrels playing catch-me-if-you-can. Marco Polo, duh dog, sleeping and dreaming on the rug put there just for him a few feet to the left.
I usually start the garden from seed in the house in December, under a grow light designed for that purpose. But this year I decided to experiment and buy a portable greenhouse -- a good alternative to several cold frames.
Many of those plants will go in a garden I have near the house. The rest -- and things I haven't started such as corn -- will be planted or seeded directly into another, much larger, garden about a quarter mile up the hill toward Hell's Peak. That one has a fence to keep the bears and dear out; and a couple posts have to be replaced as they were burned out by the fire that came through here two summers ago.
I used to sun-dry tomatoes in a special box I made many years ago. It's large enough that it's best to tow it around with a riding mower; but I haven't used that for a few years as I haven't been getting the plants started early enough so that I would have a large crop early enough in the year. When tomatoes ripen late in the year, there's not enough sun to dry them properly, so I would can what I grew instead. Would prefer to do both, canning and drying. But my get-up-and-go got up and went, to where I don't know, it's time not well spent.
Speaking of Oil ...
especially as it relates to USO:
I was amazed at how low it went recently so I went all-in on USO trades a couple weeks ago -- one multi-leg trade in each of two accounts. Thought it was a no-brainer.
Got spanked right away and wiped out all my (substantial) gains of the previous several weeks. Gee, why was it so much more difficult than I remember it being several years ago?
Then over a few hours it all came back to me: The pricing of USO is based on oil futures contracts, and not the price of oil per barrel; then I remembered why I spent so much time studying futures way back then and studying things called contango and backwardation. And I recalled nearly making the decision to trade futures all the time instead stocks as it appeared to be relatively easy, but finally decided to leave it alone.
Last week, decided instead to trade airlines, as they've been hammered flat due to a thing called the flu. So far so good as they've dropped to about a third of what they were a couple months ago. They'll be back -- they're a necessary form of travel and delivery of products.
And it's easy: buy stock, sell CCs, replenish stock if needed, sell more CCs ... it's sort of like growing then harvesting your own vegetables. What's more, Uncle Sam is helping out by sprinkling green fertilizer everywhere.
Uh ...
China’s electric vehicle subsidy news
According to Reuters, China announced that it will extend the subsidies for buying new energy vehicles to 2022. However, China will lower subsidies by 10% this year. The country will gradually lower the subsidies over the next two years. Notably, the subsidies would only apply to vehicles that cost less than 300,000 yuan (approximately $42,376). Reuters also reported that Tesla raised the prices on two China-made Model 3 variants after the announcement. NIO cars won’t have any subsidies since they’re priced above the threshold.
Can China bailout NIO stock?
NIO has been fighting a survival battle. The company flagged concerns during its fourth-quarter earnings release. NIO raised almost $435 million through issuing convertible notes this year. The company also received a quasi-bailout from the municipal government of Hefei. A Reuters report said that China intends to “cultivate home-grown auto sector champions.” China will also encourage sales of cars with swappable batteries. Incidentally, NIO offers battery swapping technology.
Tesla and China
Tesla received a red carpet welcome in China—in contrast to other automakers. The company got permission to go solo in China, while other auto giants had to form joint ventures with local partners. Tesla secured permission for its China Gigafactory quickly. China exempted some Tesla models from the purchase tax last year. The country also granted a subsidy to Tesla’s China-made electric vehicles.
Tesla’s China Gigafactory has been ramping operations and gaining market share in China from local electric vehicle producers. Notably, NIO’s sales have fallen sharply this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://tinyurl.com/y8knwkd9
Is NIO Stock a Buy or Sell?
By:
Mohit Oberoi, CFA
Apr 13, 2020
So far, NIO’s stock price has fallen by 34% in 2020. The stock price has fallen even though the company raised capital. NIO’s first-quarter deliveries also beat the expectations.
Meanwhile, Tesla stock has recouped some of its March losses. Currently, the stock is trading with strong year-to-date gains. Tesla is also snatching market share from Chinese electric vehicle makers.
NIO stock
NIO stock has been on a roller coaster ride. The volatility in 2020 might be due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the stock was volatile last year as well. So far, NIO stock has fallen 34% year-to-date. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has outperformed the markets this year. The stock has risen by 37% in 2020. Tesla’s China Gigafactory is ramping up production fast. So far, Tesla is giving Chinese electric vehicle makers a run for their money.
China’s electric vehicle industry
China’s electric vehicle market was growing at a breathtaking pace before the government lowered subsidies in the middle of 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic dented Chinese electric vehicle makers’ sales. While NIO’s sales have fallen, it beat its first-quarter delivery forecast. In another encouraging move, NIO raised capital through issuing convertible notes. The company also signed a preliminary agreement with the municipal government of Hefei. The company will get almost $1.43 billion (over 5 years) as part of the deal. NIO stock rose after the preliminary agreement with Hefei. However, the stock fell after the company announced the issuance of convertible notes.
Is NIO stock a buy?
The bullish story for NIO stock is basically built around survival backed by the Chinese government. The electric vehicle industry forms part of China’s “Made in China 2025” program. NIO’s preliminary deal with the municipal government of Hefei could be seen in the same light. Meanwhile, China also supported Tesla, which became the first automotive company to have solo operations in China.
Survival
In China, several Tesla models were exempt from the purchase tax last year. Support from the Chinese government doesn’t guarantee that NIO will survive. The company needs to be a sustainable venture. Currently, NIO posts losses even on the gross profit level. By the end of the year, the company expects its gross margins to expand to double digits. However, the target looks like a tall task despite various cost-cutting measures. Right now, buying NIO stock is a bet on the company’s survival.
Should you sell NIO stock?
Wall Street analysts have a fairly bearish view of NIO stock. The stock doesn’t have any “strong buy” ratings. Only one analyst has given the stock a “buy” rating. Three analysts recommend a “sell,” while ten analysts polled by Thomson Reuters recommend a “hold.”
I think that NIO stock is a high-risk bet. Given the sell-off in some of the other high-quality stocks, investors could bet on a different automaker. Some of the mainstream automakers like Ford (NYSE:F) and General Motors (NYSE:GM) are down sharply amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They might be a relatively safe bet and also offer upside potential after the outbreak improves. If betting on survival, some of the beaten-down legacy automakers have a better risk-reward scenario compared to NIO stock
Read NIO Stock Still Faces Challenges, China Limps to Normalcy to learn more: https://tinyurl.com/y6vwzn2d
https://tinyurl.com/yclxjznw
Already read that.
But via a different rout.
NIO News everyone should have read:
Investor's Business Daily
Nio, Tesla Fall After China Cuts Electric Cars Subsidies
04:06 PM ET 04/23/2020
https://tinyurl.com/yaywzsme