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SMA(50) on 30-min Chart.
That SMA is at $2.50 near today's close.
You are looking at a daily interval chart.
Market's going red green red green ...
Like a frog in a blender.
What seems odd (to me) is that medical related stocks and sectors are also going down. I tend to think those would all do very well as more and more people become ill.
I'll guess it's not working that way because when investors run for the door they leave logic behind. They just want out. Then while going home they stop at CVS to pick up their flu meds and a few other things while there.
Much of China's pollution comes from coal.
China is by far the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, accounting for 46% of global coal production and 49% of global coal consumption—almost as much as the rest of the world combined. As a manufacturing country that has large electric power requirements, China's coal consumption fuels its economic growth.
And it is still increasing.
https://tinyurl.com/vscfggw
Forgot to emphasize:
"Though demand for electrified vehicles rose rapidly in recent years in China, they still only account for a about 5% of automobile sales in the country. And EV sales have now been dropping for four consecutive months after the government scaled back subsidies.
Translation: The electric car manufacturers have to do that on their own.
The government doesn't care who wins or loses as long as electric vehicles take over.
Do you water your lawn?
You know, to keep your grass green.
Global warming is caused by gases in the air which are denser than the air.
That includes water vapor homeowners introduce into the air when they water their lawns.
1) Both CO2 and water vapor (H2O) are denser than air. The ratio of water vapor density to CO2 density is 0.436 at Normal Temperature and Pressure (NTP).
2) That number (above) can be looked up in engineering converson tables for gases.
3) One gallon of gasoline will produce about 20 lbs of CO2, a global warming gas (which can be easily calculated from complete oxidation of gasoline molecules).
4) One gallon of water weighs 8.34 lbs. When that water evaporates into the air, it too will cause global warming.
5) The ratio between the two weights (from items 3 and 4 above), 20 lbs and 8.34 lbs, is 0.417 (almost equal to the 0.436 mentioned above -- that's a good thing as there is no disagreement).
Humans Initiate Global Warming -- 6,000 BC:
Irrigation (the diversion of water for the purpose of farming) began at about the same time in Egypt and Mesopotamia (present day Iraq and Iran) using the water of the flooding Nile or Tigris/Euphrates rivers. The flood waters, which occurred July through December, were diverted to fields for 40 to 60 days.
Conclusion: The person providing the daily water usage data at his typical city home (but having a somewhat larger than normal yard) caused as much global warming every day during a 6-month period on his medium-sized lot during 2016 as a person can produce by burning 254 gallons of gasoline every day.
In other words, it is the redistribution of water by humans that is causing global warming, not the burning of fossil fuels.
Now guess how much global warming the city parks and the farmers are causing with all their irrigation.
A gas-fired power plant ...
or gas-fired power station or natural gas power plant is a thermal power station which burns natural gas to generate electricity. Natural gas power stations generate a quarter of world electricity and a significant part of global greenhouse gas emissions and thus global warming.[1] However they can provide seasonal dispatchable generation to balance variable renewable energy where hydropower or interconnectors are not available.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas-fired_power_plant
Coal-fired plants produce electricity ...
Coal power in the United States accounted for 39% of the country's electricity production at utility-scale facilities in 2014, 33% in 2015, 30.4% in 2016, 30.0% in 2017, and 27.4% in 2018.[2] Coal supplied 12.6 quadrillion Btu (3,700 TWh) of primary energy to electric power plants in 2017, which made up 91% of coal's contribution to US energy supply.[3] Utilities buy more than 90% of the coal consumed in the United States.
Well,
I don't have to remember that, but I'm very sure there were many buys at much higher prices.
Hard to tell what price anybody paid for their NIO stock. They never post prices paid right after placing their trades, so there's no way to verify.
Because of that, nothing written here about trades should be taken seriously. It's all fiction.
Finally,
someone who knows the real NIO.
Everybody else here wishes they had saved their money so they could buy NIO now.
But, no, they paid all those bargain prices on the way down.
Well, of course, but it's a flu.
Of course the numbers for this new flu virus will go up. In my mind I insinuated that already. I don't think I should have to write that on the chalk board.
I also haven't heard or read that this new flu virus is any worse in terms of outcome per individual than any other flu viruses of which there are very many.
Twenty-two years ago I bought the property I live on now. It's very far away from any place I lived before, and it's remote country property wherein the distance to neighbors is measured in miles.
Prior to moving onto the property about 2-yrs after I purchased it, I hadn't gotten sick from a flu virus for so many years that I have no memory of it. I'm talking about decades. Then during those first two years I lived here I became ill from a flu virus (which I assumed existed here -- a place of rancher-farmer neighbors and very small towns -- but not where I lived before).
Since those two instances, I have not gotten ill from a flu virus again. In fact, I don't even remember becoming ill with a common cold since I moved to my present location.
Eventually I'll become ill from a flu or common cold again, but I'm certainly not going to obsess on that. The obsession itself has the potential to weaken the body. Homey don't do that.
Know all that.
Just gave the exchange-rate link for anyone who wants it at any time.
US/China Exchange rate:
https://tinyurl.com/rbfw76s
I have published a few things,
in rags that pay nothing. So there's exposure and nothing more.
My youngest son really likes to read and liked writing in school before entering college (if he was allowed to choose the subject), and some of his writings were praised by his high school teachers. My opinion is that teachers should not do that -- just grade the papers and leave it at that. There's nothing worse than encouraging somebody to do something that they can't discover for themselves.
Therefore ... skipping through the years ... he earned an advanced degree in creative writing, and taught that for a while at a junior college in Berkeley.
He quit that as he and his older brother inherited a good amount of money from their mother after she died of cancer. His intent was to concentrate a hundred percent on his writing and try to get it published. Some of his writing was published, but only as a shadow writer.
My sons and I email each other once in a while. Those are mostly for the purpose of making plans for visits, et cetera. Other than that, they don't write much and when they do they don't write much. That says it all.
When true writers start to write, they find it nearly impossible to stop as they pass through the infinite hallways and doorways of their mind's journey -- they write because they have to, not because they want to.
A NIO is not luxury, period.
Since you love NIO and are willing to throw money at it with the hope it sticks, then have at it!
Just remember, it's trading where it is for good reasons.
And while trading as low as it is, options strategies to either protect your position in the stock, or to help assure some income, are not applicable because options strike gaps of 50-cents are too high of a percentage of underlying value.
OK,
This was years ago and maybe you were writing about your son or where you were at that time. Or maybe it was where I was at that time. All I know for sure is that you told me where you were and that was so long ago that I forgot.
My only experience living south of the GGB was Tracy (which is maybe south but for sure waayyyy east) for a month in a motel right after graduating from college while I waited for my roommate to arrive 30-days later (as he repeats a class that he flunked in his last semester in college), then Pleasanton for a year, then Livermore for a few years, all adding up to 8-yrs, then off to Minnesota for 8-yrs, then back to California (north-bay in general). Then my country roots took me to Lake county country north-west of Upper Lake where I have to be careful about black bears, mountain lions, and rattle snakes; but that's far safer than walking the streets in the theater district of San Francisco at night while waiting to be allowed in the theater.
You know what? Over many years I've done so much mathematical study of the stock market, and done so many things within Excel that I've become sort of complacent and don't worry about it nearly as much as I used to or should.
So this morning starts off with the market not doing things I would like or wished for, so for better entertainment I go on a walkabout on the internet this morning. And then finally I think; "oh, I should check and see how my stocks are doing".
So I just went and did that and was totally surprised. Then I thought that; wee!, now I can go and do what I planned on doing last night, which was to write new Calls against my shares. Going off to do that, I found the door closed -- the damned market wouldn't let me in! It's a half-hour after the market closed and I missed the whole damned thing. Not sorry!
First you say ...
the buyers of these types of cars are not worried about money ...
and now you say the cars have to be competitively priced.
In the English language you can't have both without being fickle, which means they don't clearly understand what they want or should do.
I'll accept that, and that's why buyers of NIO cars would buy a car advertised as an SUV but in reality can't be driven as one because it has insufficient ground clearance.
Granted, Jeep has SUVs that have low ground clearance also (because they try to please everybody, even those who don't know what they are doing as they don't even think about ground clearance and its ramifications); but Jeep knows what it is doing (and what is right) so they also have SUVs that have high ground clearance as they all should.
I had a hunch but didn't know.
Some of the meters up here are read remotely also. Mine are now, but not when I first bought the property. In fact, the guy who designed the first RF circuits that does wireless meter reporting was a best-friend of mine when I worked in Minnesota and he worked for me (though I left there to come back to California before that era of wireless meters).
I also have a hunch that a judge ordered PG&E to not charge anybody who has property in last year's fire zone in Lake county -- and my property is in that zone.
My recollection is that you live somewhere in Marin county but I don't remember where. FWIW, one of my best friends lives in NW Novato. I also lived in Novato for one year a few decades ago when I returned to California from Minnesota.
Of course NIO is worried about money.
You wrote:
Re those 3 commodity symbols ...
Those are the ones. They were not green (and by a good amount) and that is very unusual, but the market is also in a very unusual situation -- and just claimed the title of Bear Market.
That table is one of two major tables I maintain in Excel every day and there is a lot of code that provides various unique indicators from that list for the purpose of better understanding the whole market.
The only problem with that just happens to be the biggest and most important problem: during huge downturns like we're currently in; these events happen so seldom, there's not enough statistical data available for effective analysis.
That which I wrote regarding those commodities used to also be true for utilities but doesn't seem to be so common anymore. I think part of that is due to California because it has such a large economy that it could be a separate country:
If it were a country, California would be the fifth-largest economy in the world (larger than the United Kingdom, France, or India), and the 36th-most populous as of 2017.
The California electrical utilities used to be highly regulated by the state but that is no longer the case. So I think that's why it doesn't behave the way it used to; and perhaps other states' electrical utilities were managed the same as California's -- I don't know.
Here's a really important question I have for you: have you gotten a PG&E bill over the last several months? I ask because there is a good chance that you have not as I think PG&E is planning to file (or already filed) for bankruptcy. Many properties where I live have not received PG&E bills for many months, but that could be related to the fact that PG&E turned off the power up here last year for relatively long periods of time (which really pissed everybody off in Lake county).
NIO's future:
I've looked at numerous brokerage (not analyst or dreamer) profit estimates for NEO going all the way out to the end of 2021: nothing but losses, the best being a quarterly loss of $0.81 at the end of 2021 posted by Nasdaq.
"cash now is so cheap"?
During a bear market, and workers are staying away from work, cash is not cheap. It's more precious than at any other time.
Or, look at it this way: if cash is cheap then you need more of it to do the same job.
But I don't really believe that either.
When there is a Bear stock market, and there is also a virus keeping people at home and away from work, and personal cash flow is negative, nobody is going car shopping.
What's more, when people do get back to work, they're going to have to put away funds to make up for the funds they lost while out of work.
So it could be many months after this financial downturn is over before the new-car market returns to normal health.
NIO Earnings Estimates
NIO Earnings Whisper: https://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks/nio
March 18, 6:40AM
4th Quarter December 2019
Consensus: -$0.37
-----------------------------------------------
Yahoo Estimate ______
Current Estimate: -1.84 ???
07 Days Ago: -1.84 ???
30 Days Ago: -0.26
60 Days Ago: -0.28
90 Days Ago: -0.30
??? Could there be a Yahoo error: Data provided by Thomson Reuters. Maybe not: Maybe it is flu adjusted.
Odds are that Yahoo is correct while Whisper numbers are a result of a poll and don't have recent new information. Otherwise, the Whisper numbers have always been very accurate.
Suggestion: check Whisper numbers every day leading up to the earnings release date.
Now let's assume it really is -1.84 (because of the flu, of course).
Then I would say that it would probably be a very good idea to be out of the stock at release of the earnings report.
Current after-hours trade has NIO going lower.
I totally agree.
Considering the percentages and the ages of those who have died of this new flu, I think people everywhere are grossly overreacting by putting themselves in a state of fear due to the natural evolution of a new flu.
I would give odds that the most common cause of death of the elderly or weak after heart disease or stroke is a common version of flu. It's just that we now have a new common version of flu. Cause? Evolution, dummy. Can't stop it, so get used to it!
And it sure doesn't help that humans are grossly overpopulating the earth, and we have developed ever more efficient and faster methods of traveling anywhere.
My personal opinion is that humans everywhere should adopt a policy which China had for many years and only recently ended: only one child per family. That wouldn't preclude some families from having more children because it is common that some families, for various natural reasons, can't have any children.
Estimates of current human population on earth are near 7.6 Billion. I remember when it was only 4 Billion. I would prefer an earth of 1-billion people or less. The farther apart we can develop our communities, the less likely we are to fight with each other over resources.
Replying to my own question:
Those three symbols are usually of little interest on good market days because traders are more interested in the the higher gain potential of everything else, so those three commodity symbols become undervalued during those good periods simply because of lack of interest by the majority of the trading public.
But today everybody hates everything.
I wonder if those three symbols will be the first to recover. If so, could they be an early signal that the market is on the brink of becoming more rational (instead of psychotic)?
Finally, the bear growls ...
If it's like the rest the major corrections on the chart there will be a short period of partial recovery followed by another dip.
In recognition of the root of the market's problems, and where its cure is, I'm fully invested in a medical stock which not everyone appreciates, but which Buffett liked well enough to purchase many millions of its shares.
Owning shares, my plan is (as usual) to write Calls against them week after week, often going from one strike to another every few days as the market fluctuates -- and in that way add cash to the accounts without having to liquidate the stock.
NIO introduces their first product, ever.
Then they have to recall it.
That makes NIO look really, really bad. It's what anyone would call a marketing nightmare.
Toyota was the world's first automobile manufacturer to produce more than 10 million vehicles per year, which it has done since 2012, when it also reported the production of its 200-millionth vehicle.
Edsel was a good car, too.
But it still died on the vine.
NIO has had recalls.
That's a good car?
It's not my opinion.
You have never posted the buy price right after making du "trade".
And everyone suggests they're loaded up.
Right ... 10 shares?
The design of the car is done.
The specifications are complete, and I've already posted them "along with wheel clearance" weeks ago.
The thing rides too close to the ground to be called an SUV. My point is, the Chinese probably don't have a clue what an SUV really is.
I'm pretty sure they called it an SUV because it's full of seats.
That's a lousy SUV,
It rides way too close to the ground.
Call it for what it is: a good commute or shopping car, but be sure you stay on surfaced roads.
Right,
probably at $3.53. $$$$$$$$Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Nah,
I grew up as a fisherboy ... fisherman ... whatever
I know the difference between carp and catfish.
Some fishermen consider them as trash fish. I don't. If you fry white-meat fresh-water fish with the right seasonings and brown them in the cooking, ya can't tell the difference in taste -- it's all good eats and just as healthy.
Well, I'm trading TEVA and have buy-writes for the week. I was smart enough to buy the stock yesterday and write this week's CCs on them first thing this morning, so I've got this week's gain locked in. Going to sell more Calls on Monday.
Forgot to mention ...
The trade as set up lasts three days. Then the stock may get assigned, or I get to write Calls again on Monday (and those would bring in more because expiration would be five days off instead of three days). And as I pointed out, those options prices are juicy because of the underlying volatility of the stock.
The gain for the trade at the end of this week will be $3.14%.
I'll take that all year long as that would make my annual gain well over 100% without accounting for compounding (as these are weekly trades). But since I always do go all in, compounding matters. And compounding 52 times a year reeeeaaaaally matters!
Bottomed out:
There's a fish that does that. It's called a carp, and it usually lives at the bottom of muddy waters, which has a negative influence on its flavor. That's its normal habitat so most fishermen aren't interested. They prefer to go after bass and lake trout and such: you know, sport fish.
And good morning to you too!
I hope you don't think my choice of subject is too far off topic for this message board.
You choose to increase the volatility of what you trade (which is essentially $SPX) by trading a derivative of $SPX (the 2X version), while I do more or less the same but by going in the opposite direction by first choosing a sector within $SPX then going even lower to choose a component of that sector. How's that for a logical stretch of imagination?
So I initially chose the medical sector (because it should benefit from the root cause of the world's problems right not) -- and then a stock within that sector -- because the problem with the whole market right now is a virus, and it seems to me that (in a weird and sad way) many parts of that sector will benefit. For those reasons I chose a drug company, TEVA. What's more, before the total market downturn started, TEVA was trading at a much higher level, but three days ago traded 41% below its recent high made on Feb 19. So I went really deep to find something that I could safely trade Long in this market, and which might even benefit from those problems.
The market will be the judge of that.
Now the problem with that: the market is rarely logical.
But I also accounted for that because my statistical studies show that dojis in the four largest indices do signal a bottom that has some legs; but it does not rule out another bottom farther down the road but that new bottom would also be a significant distance away. And, of course, that's a statistical truth but not a guarantee.
That last paragraph supports your idea that the market tags 3,000 again; and yes, it could turn and go lower from there. So I'll try to trade whatever inclining wave comes along and I'll go back to cash again when I feel I have to. I don't really want a trading style that jumps from going long the market to a trade that benefits from the market going down. If I'm not long the market, I'll cash out again and go on mental vacation (substituting intellectual work activities with physical work activities).
Market is obviously trading lower ...
but it's not making a new low (yet), and in my book it's a tradeable low.
So, as planned I went all-in with the stock I selected (TEVA) in both accounts, then I wrote CCs that expire this Friday against both accounts.
Average cost for stocks was $9.20 (within a penny for each account).
Average income on Calls was wider between accounts, as they move pretty fast, so the average amount received was $0.48 for the $9.00 strikes. Therefore, if assigned the total trade will have a gain at the end of the week.
Normally I would choose the $9.50 strike so I could also (ultimately) make a profit on the shares. but since I jumped into the middle of a bear market, I went for the lower strike which would give me a larger immediate income this Friday (as opposed to shooting for a larger income on following Fridays).