The dark side
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1 billion makes no sense, that would value each of their 6 production facilities at 160 million. I'd day just Tweed and Tweed farms would justify a billion evaluation. SL for example with no sales licence has an evaluation of 265 million. So I don't agree.
Also I believe a huge bonus in the Mettrum deal is having some more experienced people to help in the coming market. As well as more infrastructure. I still think they have 50% of the patients but more than 50% of the new patients with the newly formed company. Bruce is only one man with many hats now. He needs help from experienced management.
Don't like to see this go below the bought deal price today. No one knows where this is going for the time being.
4% Dilution is not a bad deal for 60-70 million funds. Every deal Bruce has done has created value. Bedrocan for 60 million? Probably 10x investors money. Tweed farms for 20 million - probably 30x return on investment. Vert medical? 2 million will be worth 70-100 million when they receive their licence. Mettrum at 400 million would only need to make 16-20 million, doesn't sound overvalued in the market opening I bet they do that in medical sale the next 2 years. So just take a chill pill there with all the gloomy gloomy
What a schuetty post
I agree and hope it works out I put some new money to work through MT today. Seems like a good deal and Canopy most likely has a bottom in. MT has Canopy priced at $10 right now. Why take the bought deal when you can buy Canopy at $10 through MT
Just another thought I had was if they're confident enough to raise money before the MT deal has been voted on either they think that deal is in the bag or they believe the stock price is going up in the new year because I'm sure MT shareholders are not pleased at the current premium
Bullish analysis, finally some research on the sector and guess what? They're bullish.
http://www.bnn.ca/video/canada-s-high-growth-cannabis-industry~1009543
Special report on BNN today on the marijuana industries "massive potential"
At 10:10 I'll be watching a link later on when they post it usually 20-30 minutes later.
Jordan Sinclair interview on Legalization :
https://www.marijuanatimes.org/will-canada-end-marijuana-prohibition-in-2017/
Will Canada End Marijuana Prohibition in 2017?
By Joe Klare - Dec 4, 2016 1917 0
preparing-for-legalization-in-canada
AP
A little over a year ago voters in Canada went to the polls and tossed the Conservative Party from power after a 10-year reign. In their place they elected the Liberal Party, led by the charismatic Justin Trudeau, son of former Canadian Prime Minister, Pierre Trudeau.
One of the major platforms the Liberals ran on was the legalization of marijuana for all adults, aka recreational legalization or adult-use legalization. Now many eyes are on the new government in Canada as everyone waits to see what the Liberals will do.
To get down to the bottom of where we currently stand in the process, we spoke with Jordan Sinclair, Director of Communications for Canopy Growth Corporation.
Where does the Legislation Stand?
The federal government is going to table the legislation in the spring of 2017. There will be a period where they have to debate it. And then it will have to go to the Senate and then they will have to receive something called Royal Assent before it can actually become law.
“That process can take some time,“ says Sinclair. “Even though the rules will start to become clear in the spring it is more likely it will be the winter of 2018 before we start to see recreational sales.”
Although anything is possible with legislation in a country like Canada, Jordan sees little chance of some form of marijuana legalization failing to get through the Canadian Parliament.
“It is a piece of political legislation so there’s always a chance [that it could fail],” Jordan said. “Now the Senate currently has more conservative members in it than liberal members but I still think it has a pretty clear path.”
Getting Prepared
Canopy, the parent company of Tweed – which serves medical marijuana patients throughout Canada – is doing what they can to prepare for eventual recreational legalization. We asked Justin what that actually entails.
“We are trying to actively participate in all of the consultation that is going on,” Jordan told us. “They had an open call for submissions to be able to give your say as to what you think the law should look like. Should you be allowed to advertise? How should we distribute it? So, we were very happy to put in our submission in that way.”
Jordan said that Canopy is looking to scale up as fast as possible, maxing out their available production facilities and looking for new ones as they prepare for the coming adult use legalization.
“We recently announced that we are in a memorandum of understanding with a construction company to build us some more [production facilities] at a favorable rate. I think what that will allow us to do is expand quite quickly and have another avenue to do so that isn’t just purely equity based. What I mean by that is, to date we’ve funded our expansion through issuing shares. So this way I think we can do it in a more creative way that has a lot more ROI [Return on Investment] for our shareholders.”
United Nations Treaties
Many have speculated on the impact cannabis legalization will have on Canada’s participation in three United Nations drug control treaties.
“I think it was a really smart, strategic political move for the Canadians to make the original announcement about legalization at the U.N.,” Jordan said. “I think what that did was make it very clear this was the direction we are going in. We had people on the ground in New York the day the announcement was made and it really didn’t blow any people’s hair back. I think that the international community has a clear line of sight to what the liberal party was planning during the campaign process.”
It’s more likely that the international treaties in question will be renegotiated to reflect the new realities in Canada and that the international community has more important things to worry about in the long run than whether or not Canada is legalizing cannabis, according to Jordan.
What’s to Come?
As the first major country to federally legalize, Canada will face many regulatory challenges. As the rest of the world sits on the sidelines and policy makers break new ground, we asked what form could legalization take? What will the regulations be like? Will legal marijuana in Canada be dominated by the government, or will the free market get a chance to reign?
Jordan said Canopy is looking at the possibility that regulations could be relatively tight when the final rules for legalization shake out.
“For example, let’s say the government only allowed licensed producers to produce dried cannabis flowers and they wouldn’t allow us to produce other things. What that would do is open up the market opportunity back to the existing black market. We have got to be really clear with policy makers on that and if one of the policy objectives is to stop the black market from growing or to shrink it then what we should do is allow for legal forms of access to as many forms of cannabis as they can.”
According to Jordan, it’s a matter of balancing priorities against public safety and public health. Will there be marijuana gummy bears in Canada? Perhaps not, but it’s important to companies like Canopy to present the industry’s side of the arguments.
You can be sure that the Trudeau government is getting a lot of feedback from the companies that will inhabit the future legal adult marijuana market.
For a company like Canopy, which is already established in the Canadian medical cannabis market, the future is bright. Jordan thinks the coming of recreational legalization will enhance things on the medical side as well, spurring more understanding and innovation.
“Now we still basically ask people to go through their own trial and error process to find the right cannabis strain or the ingestion model that works best for them,” he said. “I think that a lot of this can be uncovered by research. Once there is legal access and real substantial tax revenue coming from that it would make a lot of sense for the federal government to provide some framework for research that would allow for medical cannabis patients to treat themselves a lot better. Hopefully that would put a dent into the use of opioid prescriptions by being able to define what and when and how we can treat other forms of pain with cannabis.”
Canopy will continue to pursue things on the medical side and everyone is excited about what will be possible in the future.
On the recreational side, thanks to the built-in customer base that is already familiar with many of the products on the market, Jordan sees legality letting those customers come out from the shadows, spurring further product improvements.
“We are going to start to see products get refined like in other recreational product markets,” Jordan said.
Canada Vs. the States
People in the United States are used to the state-by-state approach that is inherent in our traditions and political system. In Canada, legalization will be at the federal level, which means people in each province will see the same rules and regulations as everyone else. This also means that while the process may seem slow to some, once it’s completed it will be nationwide.
“I think that in the states you can see how a bunch of other people do things so the people who come on board later can pick and choose the best practices. For us the federal approach is fantastic for business, it’s consistent and it has been good for Canopy Growth. The other side of it is that the rules that you have are the rules that you have.” In other words, if you don’t like the rules that the Canadian government settles on you can’t just go to somewhere else in Canada to find rules that might be more beneficial to your business. With consistency also comes a certain amount of rigidity.
No matter what, Canada’s legalization – if and when it comes – will have a major impact not only on the Canadian economy and culture, but it will also send reverberations throughout North America and the rest of the world.
It’s an exciting time to be part of the marijuana law reform movement and Canada will get started on pioneering the federal approach next year.
Germany would be nice. I hope they shine some light on the plans moving forward soon. It's would be nice to have an idea of where the money was going.
At least it's only 5 million shares. Whoever was lucky enough to get in on that deal and plans to sell and re buy at 10.60 with the volume now will be gone in one or 2 days. See what happens. Smart move in front of a positive task force announcement in a few weeks. They have combined 120 million plus in funds now. Let's see what they do with it. Get another massive greenhouse that would make me happy.
Trudeau takes shots at the illegal dispensaries :
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/12/03/trudeau-urges-police-to-enforce-the-law-on-marijuana.html
Thank you for this nice to have the info easily accessible. The thing I was interested in especially with the Mettrum deal was the amount of patients signing up for the program. The past 6 months average just under 4000 per month. Now with 50% of the market Canopy will be adding 2000 patients per month. To put that in perspective.
Canopy should be adding $450,000-500,000 in revenue every month. Just under the medical model that is a very good business. They seemed to have grown this much without Mettrum though. So the question I have is they may have 50% of the patients but what percentage will they be adding those new patients now with Bedrocan Mettrum Tweed combination? It seems Canopy had 50% of that new revenue last quarter without Mettrum. Mettrum has a very good on boarding program so I read.
Every month that goes by the company continues to grow. Then we hit the recreational market and we'll see what type of growth comes.
Some rediculous fun math for us day dreamers.
Two quarters ago an average user spent $680 on cannabis per quarter.
With an expected 3 million heavy users in Canada
A 50% Market share would be 1,020,000,000 billion per quarter.
LMAO,
I think people might spend $80 per month 8 grams a month, smaller amount
That would still be 360,000,000 per quarter.
Give Canopy a 10-12% market share
That's $90,000,000 million per quarter at 8 grams a month.
Let's see what happens.
Yea, I've been nibbling at Mettrum stock the past 2 days.
If this article is the truth, my dreams are coming true. Enjoy!
https://www.civilized.life/articles/heres-a-sneak-peak-at-canadas-proposed-regulations/
Naaaa Mettrum brings a 50% revenue boost 20 something million cash. Plus broken into it's parts the company is undervalued. If 430 million is the value of Mettrum I truse Bruce wouldn't make a bad deal he's earned that trust. Then think about Canopy as a whole.
Tweed farms 600-800 million
Tweed smith falls 600-800
Bedrocan 430 million
Mettrum 430 million
Vert once licensed 70-100
International deals ???
2.1 - 2.4 Billion company and growing every quarter. Buyout of Canopy would take 4-5 billion.
MT'S stock is headed down which is puzzling. Being minipulated with one large bid that keeps moving down. Mt is an easy stock to minipulate. I wonder of a shirt position could move Canopy down by hitting MT's stock. MT stock moving down is quite puzzling to me right now. I wouldn't move any more cash until I see what's going on with it.
I did yesterday pull a little bit and throw it into MT. I've been contemplating throwing in some fresh money into MT if Canopy stays stable there's money to be made with fresh cash. I was just saying when the deal is immenant and about to close you could make a quick buck if people start selling at the 8.40 level and Canopy is above 11.80. I saw Mettrum's CEO on BNN he was acting like it's a done deal and said he will be holding on to his Canopy shares the words he used was "of coarse" 2 million shares.
I think it was always the plan of Mettrum to be bought out. The barely raised fund ever and had huge insider holdings as well as a low share count.
I agree with you the opportunity is there, I think it is too small for large guys to take the risk right now but as we move closer to the date the gap will close. Imo
MT should be trading at $8.15 things should even up soon. Reach a balance between the 2 closer to the deal finalizing. If Canopy goes above the 11.80 mark MT shares will be worth more than the stated 8.41. For example if Canopy reaches the $13-15 of analyst predictions apparently we were upgraded to buy by two brokerages yesterday Mettrum should be selling for $9.25 - 10.70. On the other hand if Canopy goes down so does MT. Currently Mettrum is pricing Canopy at 10.90 given the current environment I don't see Canopy going down much but I could be wrong of coarse. I like watching how these deals play out.
If this reaches closer to the closing date and Canopy is above 11.80 and people are selling a wall at 8.41 because of the news release and don't understand the deal fully, someone with deep pockets could make a killing eating up those shares. I'm going to be watching out for that with new money. If I'm fast enough to beat the big boys.
I think we're all going to be alright.
Task Force new info (mail order recommended!)
below are excerpts from the full article at http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-marijuana-report-to-urge-liberals-to-strike-at-the-black-market
The key recommendation of the panel charged with outlining the framework for Canada’s legal marijuana regime is that the system should be geared toward getting rid of the $7-billion-a year black market.
Sources familiar with the report, which is expected to be made public Dec. 21, say all the other recommendations flow from that guiding principle.
To ensure consumers receive a Health Canada-approved product, the report is expected to recommend the existing mail-order distribution network be maintained.
Allowing Canada Post a monopoly in mail distribution would also boost business for a Crown corporation that saw mail volumes fall by 14 per cent in the most recent quarter.
On production, it is expected the report will recommend that the 36 existing licensed producers continue to produce Health Canada-approved pot, while new producers will be encouraged to apply for production permits
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=v.cgc&postid=25543250#ul2ThhAzpCzQBAaZ.99
Yea, I think you're right. May take a few days to find a level balance between the 2. The market hated the Bedrocan deal I think though. The Mettrum deal seems better timed. Look back at the Bedrocan deal now paying 60 million was the deal of the century and I imagine in 1 year time the Mettrum deal will look similar.
Canopy always was an interesting company but now they have so many arms reaching into many different pockets. It's only a matter of time to when they can be tapped and cash starts to flow. Mettrum is a nice addition and if they help me increase my position in Canopy I love them even more.
Market is a strange place I saw a dollar on the table a took a chance at it as well. I wasn't serious sorry to send shivers down investors spine OG I think the deal will go through Mettrum management has already signed off their shares 15% of the company and the shareholders of MT would be crazy not to take the deal. It's just funny MT is still unproforming lol
Is the deal not going through? MT is selling off sitting here scratching my head?
Looks like it. I have two 5000 share buys left if it decided to drop more. I'll take the free Canopy shares if it works out.
As for the deal, excellent. I can see the healthy lifestyle brand fitting in here well. The price they paid it good as well. Mettrum was the most undervalued in the space and Bruce picked up on it and pulled the trigger.
The price per sq footage I have at $580 engage. That is highly debatable though and no idea if the sq footage includes isles walkways ect... It's based on 750 grams per plant too which is high side and also based on a 9 sq foot per plant which I estimated looking at Tweed farms.
Bought 10,000 MT shares this morning too when it dropped well below $8 for a short time. Hoping it was the right move. Where the stock prices are now it seems like a good idea. Praying now!
Wow what a finish, not too bad indeed.
Leaked information?....It was the force.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/conservatives-call-for-probe-into-marijuana-stock-surge-1.3182748
Just sitting patiently waiting loving life. I like the deal, they pretty much bought their ticket to access the German market. At today's prices 10 million to garentee your seat at the table of 80 million Germans well worth it. Bring on the task force report.
GL all
I think so. Shoppers would be a good match for Bedrocan. I think Bruce grabbed up Bedrocan not for their production or for revenue but for their strains for medical research and development of standardized drugs. That part of the business has me as excited as the recreational side. If you hit it big in pharma it's usually a home run. That being said the guy in the 7-11 is selling more dollars than Bedrocan.
Bruce said for the past two conference calls he was surprised that no one was paying attention to Brazil. He even went as far to say he's more excited about Brazil than Australia. I can see why the market should pick up on this soon imo.
Canopy the next gw pharmaceuticals : Canopy exports to Brazil
http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aCGC-2424263&symbol=CGC®ion=C
Entourage will now begin clinical study drug preparation and stable pharmaceutical formulations needed for the development of a whole plant drug candidate targeting epilepsy and pain management for registration before the Brazilian health authority ANVISA anticipated in 2018.
Things are looking up!
If by clowns you mean Dundee GMP ect. They or their clients were buying pretty large yesterday a day early they under estimated the panic the short sellers created.
For the other longs here if the short attack is truly over (Fingers crossed) that was the ultimate test right there $9 or $10 dollars down from the high in 4 days good god!
If Canopy doesn't make 300 million annual by 2019 I'll retire my lightsaber
Excellent, an exemption is an easy way to legalize cannabis fast and easy. Looks like they did it with Hemp, let's hope for a quick exemption for Cannabis. Just read that Washington cannabis out sold alcohol already. We're golden here just gotta hold on through the ups and downs
That reminds me of something Bruce said on the conference call.
Each plant in the greenhouse yeilds 750 grams average. 10,000 15,000 plants. 3 harvests. They might have 50-78 million on their books next quarter and it looks like Tweed farms is capable of 150- 200 million per year. Even at 5000 plants that 80 million. Smith falls had 16 million on the books this quarter they harvest 4 times a year and expect to double production by 2017.
32 million per quarter 120 million per year. They're capable of hitting 200 or 300 million already.
God knows we could use some good news right about now and the short squeeze would be a quick turnaround.
Good job you deserve it! For our sake I hope the short sellers are gone. Looks to be the case but they're a sneaky bunch. They're no Jedi master though UP Canopy UP
I'm currently using the force to guide this stock price back up. Like a surfing jedi my mantra is, Bedrocanisapieceofcrap ommmmmmmmm
Eating up shares like the cookie monster today. I may need some of that bakerstreet after this.
That first run was just the test run like a fire drill. Come one Justin get that weed selling buddy.
holy crap full blown panic has taken place relax out there world.
Net House showing Institutional Buying
and retail selling. The hallmark of the end of the last three corrections so the bottom is more than likely in here. Saw this all the analyst brokers are buying today. Not my analysis but interesting
Largest net buyers:
Anonymous +395,000 shs
Dundee +301,000 shs
GMP +295,000 shs
Clarus +252,000 shs
Largest net sellers
RBC -229,000 shs
Scotia -202,000shs
Questrade -161,000
BMO -155,000
So unless Retail has all of the sudden got smarter than Institutional money, I think it is pretty safe to say the correction is ending today on massive volume the way it should.
$1.30-1.40 my fingers were slow that day
I think next quarter will be a nice one, just based on the way they handle their accounting. we'll be reporting the Croptober greenhouse at full capacity on our books. This quarter with biological gains we were .05 cent per share I forget the exact amount harvested in the quarter but a full greenhouse may be 4x that amount I'm guessing. They also have Germany showing on the books as you said and also the Bedrocan price raise and shipping costs gone. They may report .15 EPS which will make quite the headline. It's seemed last quarter people only read the headline.
let's try to put together a realistic view of the possibilities of revenue in 2017. On a wild day like today may put things into perspective. I am in no way always right so chime in if you disagree.
Germany early 2017 opens up to medical. Our first year of sales were close to 10 million I believe in Canada. Germany is more than double the populations but let's use double than minus 20% in case it grows slower.
Germany: 16 million 2017
Canada revenue : Conservative Dundee at 67 million
I think Canopy will be closer to the 80 million mark next year.
80 - 100 million in revenue 2017 before we even sell a gram of legal buds. The medical market is becoming an interesting market in itself.
Then enter the legal market: 5% of the market of around 300 million. I think we could be looking at selling half our market cap per year, in under 2 years. I think we can rest easy even on volatile days such as today. Just watch that political game. Although I don't see any other way the government can turn at this point. LP's are their life line at this point.