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Watch for a flag reversal @ VNR tomorrow.
Heads up on BAA flag re-entry play. Strong daily watch for bounce above .38.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p44602072405
With golds V bottom bounce today. May see a gold reversal and top resistance break @ BAA.
VNR closed today for 20% in 2 days, on flag break pattern play. If your playing along you better get out. IMO tomorrow the gaps below start to fill. Your looking at an exhaustion candle spike on emotional volume, in this chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VNR&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p30182269885
link back
Finding new funding at the OTC deserves a strong watch, NOT entry. IMO don't enter before, on expectations. Enter after, on knowledge breakout has happened.
33% divvy ???? REITs don't event have dividends that high. Made me look. I see LGCY offers NO dividend since 2015.
Where did you find it pays a 33% divvy? I'd check again;
https://www.dividendinvestor.com/dividend-paid-since/?no=21236
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LGCY
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=LGCY
New heads up on NYMT
Just picked up a 4th re-entry; small starter position, @ EOD. There was a ask close for 170k EOD and the last time that happened, the flag pattern broke for a 15% gain. Going large @ $6.60 top resistance for a 6.95 flag target.
Oil & Gas had an all boats thing today. I see your LGCY technicals are improving nicely. My standing order @ VNR closed @ $1.45 today, on a flag break, for $1.75 target.
With GOLD; I closed my re-entry @ BAA for 25%, on the 1st red day of a parabolic run; (Rule)
LGCY
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LGCY&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p52850503972
VNR
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VNR&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p75401150369
BAA
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p06803913762
Also been doing some FAS/FAZ day trading on the extreme exuberance in the market. Expect the max move for the S&P to be 2200 on the Brexit "V" bottom pattern target. Then back down toward 2100 to fill some gaps below.
The 3X FAS/FAZ trades during times of market emotion give strong trade gains. Been playing that strategy for years. FAS/FAZ during fast moving markets.
Normally I'd watch to see who is the AX market maker and who is the handle market maker.
These are the 2 which handle the most volume traded in the stock your interested in. The AX, or lead M&M and HANDLE, second M&M; often determine price direction by how they stack the bid / ask. And you also find them switch day by day. But there is always a first and second in the monthly figures. And they are the main ones to watch during the day.
You can find out who's involved with the stock you have interest in by entering the symbol here. Click ALL OTC, then rank, and look at MP volume or % volume.
http://otce.finra.org/MonthlyShareVolume
Expanding triangle pattern is the inverse of the symmetrical triangle. And as with either breakout direction odds are 50%/50%.
So now it's time to teach how I use this pattern. There are 2 things to look for. When watching to see which way to expect expanding triangle breakout.
Price reverses mid stream to next trend line. (upper or lower)
Price double taps trend line before reversal to next trend line. (upper or lower)
Notice the one chart shows a reversal mid way to next trend line. And the other shows a double tap before pattern continuation.
I found these differences are the key. Expect a reversal, if you see a mid term reversal in price direction. And expect a continuation, if you see a double tap at trend line.
Check my updated post. It has info video on the "V" bottom chart pattern.
And that's the pattern in both FEB and now at the S&P.
Take a look at the S&P chart back before FEB. See how the pattern then matches the pattern now. It's a coincidence as this exact same pattern happened twice. But it does show the gaps below may just be left behind again. And the future may continue as it did after the FEB lows.
The rule of thumb for gaps is; 90% of common gaps fill, but the first gaps in a new run, are often left behind.
As with all TA & charting, there is no black and white. But the odds for success is increased when technical knowledge is applied.
What I'm saying is; until a reversal occurs, expect the gaps below to act as the coincidence pattern did, back in FEB. Or don't be concerned about gaps below until reversal happens.
Study a typical "V" bottom pattern.
You found a great play now or strong watch stock.
CGRA has a channel pattern attempting to break out on the third top touch, of a channel pattern. The third touch is when resistance is usually broken with channels.
Channel plays in general;
The rule of thumb for channels is they can last from 3 to 5 touches then either break up or down. Rare to find a channel last more then 5 top or bottom touches. So if your watching one. Expect break up or down on 3rd top or bottom touch. And be confident it will break on the 4th or 5th for sure. The unknown with channels is which way will retail mindset change too.
For CGRA;
Both entry/exit indicators DMI & 5,10,20 MAs are at confirmed entry. Both support indicators are positive, but volume is not increasing. This causes concern there may not be enough sentiment to continue from break, as expected, by the chart & TA indicators.
The pattern target is .025 and since .0175 resistance has already been broke, one could enter the play. Personally volume would cause me to enter in 2 steps. Small @.018 and larger @ .02 say.
By doing this you acknowledge the sentiment concern, yet position yourself for continuation. If volume doesn't support continuation you loss on a retrace is smaller. But if volume comes, you just add when a little surer continuation to target is fact.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CGRA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58272921651
Completely forget the story!! Basing any stock trade on story expectations of retail actions, will only add confusion to ones trade plan.
The thing to keep in mind while trading on TA & charts is, over the decade's of chart patterns. There has been hundreds of reasons retail acts as it does. So one never actually KNOWS why patterns move as they have. But understanding every thought retail has, has been baked into the result.
You evaluate these thoughts with the TA indicators and volume. Mindset is the chart. Psychology is the indicators and sentiment is the volume. It takes all 3 to get the result you want.
Have no idea why you choose LGCY
Both TA & Chart looks bad and the talking heads don't like it either.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LGCY&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p95442655759
http://marketrealist.com/2016/05/legacy-reserves-highest-insolvency-risk/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&utm_content=main_permalink&utm_campaign=legacy-reserves-highest-insolvency-risk
I've got VNR on strong watch for flag play. Oil & gas
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VNR&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p04600633069
BIND
Yea I didn't know the story, only watched the chart. Today they agreed to sell assets. I'd only day trade it. As it may disappear in a blink of an eye.
Closed BBEPQ small starter position today for a small loss. Continuation didn't come!
A capital preservation move when trade plan was re-evaluated! This may be an error, as down day volume was only half the day before up volume.
This usually indicates retail sentiment is weak on a down continuation. But a gut feeling told me the down day should have not occurred in the first. So rather then speculate, I decided to look for the next one.
TEUFF presently offers a mixed bag or NULL. TA & chart wise.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TEUFF&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p00242419826
BIND /// HEADS UP /// WOW Today got breakout on volume needed to show possible continuation of gap fill trade!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIND&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p48365151741
Dividend investment isn't hard. Learning the ropes is a little involved though. By "ropes" I mean terminology and how the terms are used.
Here's good site link; click quote and enter your stock, in that area; click dividend paid since, to see history.
https://www.dividendinvestor.com
Also if you do get involved remember to research DRIPs. Some company stocks offer "dividend re-investment programs". That automatically put your dividend back into more shares for you. Some you need to re-invest yourself. By doing this you compound long term gain. But if your going to draw out the cash don't worry about DRIP info.
I could care less about the company or it's story.
Unless the TA & charts give me what I want to play; I DON'T play. It needs a positive chart pattern, positive TA indicators and increasing volumes.
TEUFF presently offers a mixed bag or NULL. On the other hand BBEPQ offers a gap above needing fill, has positive TA indicators and increasing volume.
IMO all your story research was a waste of time. All you needed to know about these fall from grace stocks is it was delisted and now trades in penntland. Then you watch the chart, to see what old & new shareholders do from now on.
TEUFF
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TEUFF&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p19481141966
BBEPQ
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBEPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p43222562627
That was an old post, wow, you doing homework!
With dividend stocks you are buying and holding them for the dividend income. NOT and price gain or loss. Gain isn't meaningful because you have no intension to sell. On the other hand when price falls it gives an opportunity to buy more and increase your overall ROI. Basically the lower the price the larger the dividend gain, with a steady distribution. Distribution is the declared dividend price.
Say you hold a divvy stock at $5.00 which is called your basis. And the Q dividend is $.25 or $1 per year. That works out to receiving a 20% ROI dividend. $1.00 /$5.00 = .20
Now say a year goes buy and the payout of $.25 remains the same but the price is now $2.50. If you just entered the ROI would be 40%.
In a case like that you can buy more low and lower your basis, thus increasing you return. It's just math.
Say you had 100 shares @ $5.00 basis. And you buy another 100 shares at $2.50. Your basis went from $5.00 to $3.75. The payout @ $.25 starts giving you 27% return, instead of your old basis gain of 20%.
If your business plan includes a steady income stream, I recommend buying a diversified or residential REIT. They give the highest return around. I've held CIM, TWO, and now NYMT over the years. And usually hold them until there is a new leader offering a much higher return then the one I'm in.
residential
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&f=ind_reitresidential&o=-dividendyield
diversified
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&f=ind_reitdiversified&o=-dividendyield
Island Reversal patterns usually last 3 to 6 months. And you want to see 1 day volume coming out of the bottom channel, equal to when it gapped down, to start the whole gap fill comeback thing.
I call this volume in / volume out. During the bottom channel you may see several attempted up moves creating the channel and a top resistance point to watch. You need the same large volume sentiment from retail to break that bottom channel top resistance and enter into the gap down area above.
The huge fall from grace, needs huge enthusiasm for a true comeback. Else the channel just continues.
Picked up some BBEPQ today. If .125 is broken, will get some more. TA good, chart looking for gap fill after delisting and BK of another, of many, billion dollar oil & gas companies.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBEPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p31288273086
The gold chart is for reference for trend. I traded miners. And used their individual charts. Always have and always will. I don't play commodities.
NVAX
Looks like time for the flag retrace. I'd worry some how far it retraces because it has a 24% short interest. Worth a watch for flag pattern reversal & resistance breaks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVAX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p57021084093
LQMT
I've got my gains in the bank and happy with what I got. Look at the gold chart. If it wasn't for todays emotion spike, where was gold going. It was retracing. I trade charts, not emotion. But now it's worth strong watching GOLD for continuation of the flag pattern break. On today's emotion break of the flag top resistance.
I may get back in the trade. But smooth continuation of gold remaining as a safe haven will be needed.
Back in LQMT and moved FDBL to strong watch for .014 break to ascending triangle target of .021
NO
IMO the main problem is boredom. People tend to leave when bored.
GALE
Flag chart & TA looks good.
On the negative side; black candle left gap below, there is a 12.5% short interest, weak buy pressure, and it's a Bio. All Bio's run on emotion. I hate emotion.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GALE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p16272376858
Good Luck Seems previous flags worked eventually.
HEADS UP @ NYMT
Afterhours over 156k traded above the close. Top resistance breached, ending at $6.55 from $6.39. That was nearly a million dollar buy!!!
Probably a attempt at a stealth intuitional entry. A buy the open trigger indication. On the afterhours .24 per share Q declaration date announcement.
Good decision IMO. Todays gap up, with high volume, says emotion exhaustion. (new blood is finishing entry) It's an emotion entry peak.
Also you noticing a fight to keep price going up, can be explained by the close to 10% short interest. Shorts with 10% of the OS, have strong power. And can and do, put up bid whacking, to stop run continuations .
The increasing volume is before the red day. Not increasing volume on the red day.
That's the difference between profit taking and change in trade psychology.
If volume is increasing, up to the red day, retail's mindset is the stock deserves a higher value. A red day under those circumstances would indicate profit taking and the volume could be small or large depending on retails trading gain requirements.
But if volume is decreasing, up to the red day, retail's mindset is the stock is reaching enough is enough. A red day under those circumstances would indicate a change in trade psychology. Top value was reached and selling takes place.
The way retail is trading the stock move or the psychology of their actions are for different reasons. Mindset isn't; it deserves higher value, it's sell now because value has been reached.
After profit taking, re-entry occurs, selling out, re-trace occurs.
That's why you can hold with increasing volume before the red day, but should exit with decreasing volume before the red day.
But no matter the volume before; a second red day; is the you must exit, not should exit, indication. Two red days happening would be a capital preservation indication. The profit takers are not coming back in. Nor is the selling out, going away.
How can you post that? It's had 1 thing and gave up developing that 1 thing !
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-can-happen-when-you-bet-on-biotech-2016-06-06?siteid=yhoof2
LOL S&P link back
My HUMM? corrected at EOD. Finished down a little. I expect continuation still, didn't feel todays pop was real though.
I'd like to give a heads up on swing trading a strong sector. I've been short term swing trading my, 3 year hold, divvy income stock NYMT several times in the last months. Last week I did a quick check of all residential & diversified REITS and I'd say 75% or more of them, are climbing.
IMO this sector "REIT's" has become the market's REAL safe haven. New money has been entering since last FEB.
If anyone is looking for a swing trade, check all the flag up channels here;
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_reitdiversified
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_reitresidential
Opportunities abound. But remember to stay away from any climbers with 10%+/- short interest. That indicates investors feel enough is enough. Their up channel may stall or end.
Took a 10% loss on re-entry play at LQMT today. Once again I found the first run on debit conversions. And the second run failed to draw the funders continuation support.
This happened at CDNL also and probably will happen at FDBL.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p22939939901
I see the S&P reversed positive as expected, today, on many bad economic reports. Humm ?
I'd like to call the dragonfly doji candle to readers attention, I posted about yesterday. I'm NOT a candle stick lover in general. There are too many variables, on too many setups, for my liking.
But when looking for possible trend reversals, the single individual gravestone & dragonfly candles work well. I do recommend studying them and using them for expecting a reversal in trend.
NYMT back on strong watch for re-entry on top resistance break. Looks like the next flag is setting up. FIBs retrace is very positive for new break north.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NYMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p47360546280
GEVO
I thought your reason to enter was the news hype with price spike. Happy your decision was based on logic, not emotion.
The very first thing I did, when I saw the chart, was look to see when the delisting notice was reported. Any NAZ stock under a buck, must get price back above $1.00 for 10 days, before 6 months of notice or delisting to the OTC is possible. The notice was JAN 26. So this price action could have been expected. It's cheaper to buy a buck in stock price, then fight delisting, without a major improvement in the last 2 Q's financials.
I can't say how many times I've seen under a buck big board stocks pop like GEVO did. What was different about GEVO was how quick it retraced. This was unusual and told me, event though the huge emotion gap was well timed with strong news. The existing poor financials and terrible management performance kept shareholders from changing their mindset.
Event though everything you posted was completely logical. What you missed was the real reason for the emotion gaps up. If it was because investors felt the news would turn the company around, the price would have remained above a buck for 10 days. Since it didn't, I don't see any change in shareholders mindset. And that mindset is still negative.
Take all this and IMO the odds for a emotion gap fill is way lower then normal emotion gaps. The thing I'd like to say to you and all readers is "When you see large emotion gaps to $1.00 at the big boards. You don't want to see emotion gaps down after." Because a REAL shareholders mindset change did not occur. They still don't like the companies odds for a comeback.
As for your trade, keep an eye on volume as price moves. Odds are the news may have delivered new blood to the stock. So it could climb for a while, while they buy in. But the minute you see volume decline, as price climbs. You are being told new blood interest is reaching it's entry end. Then expect a retrace and take any profits on the first red day. A red day with increasing volume doesn't require exit, but with decreasing volume does.
Look at EPS,ROI, Margins, and short interest and check news for delisting 6 months back here;
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=gevo