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CVE & WTI & DEST 3 days into these watch stocks are positive. two are moving north toward top resistance. CVE has broken! Moved to strong watch for resistance break and possible flag pattern target runs.
MBVX & LQMT off watch patterns failed
CVE & WTI & DEST on watch for top resistance breaks
TGB good earnings quick dive? Guess investors are use to large earnings beat. Keep it on watch next week. This knee jerk may correct.
Heads UP
TGB Earnings OCT 27 they had large beats the last 4 Q's. Good margins says management team good, institutional interest size OK and adding, basically NO short position. (after long climb north) Entry/exit indicators at positive decision point, Support indicators positive and just showing accumulation.
This one could pop any day with the "buy the earning" boys and continue to flag target on another earnings beat. Estimate 6 cents
Play at your own risk.
https://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=tgb&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
Chart has a flag;
With the good Q, my guess is that 12.5% short position is getting smaller today. FYI $6.84 closes the gap below.(good place to add) Then the knee jerk should be done and climb should follow. Next week should be a nice entry point for those getting in new.
WOW couldn't pick a harder one. LOL
There are both good and bad signs for direction on this one.
Fundamentally company looks good. Management is doing a good job, institutional has a strong position, insiders are buying. BUT it has a large short position @ 12.5%. Anything over 10% shows negative investor sentiment. Normally a strong earning beat is needed to change sentiment for price direction to remain positive.
Technically the chart and indicators are pretty much in limbo. It has followed both short & mid term chart patterns well. Hitting each pattern target. The problem is there is no short term pattern at this time and the mid term is indicating a possible negative heads & shoulders pattern developing. Also on the negative there is a fairly large gap below. short term. I think by the old "buy the earning" tribe.
So basically there is no outright signal for direction until after investor get a chance to evaluate those earning. Fundamentally the short interest shows concern. but it is defiantly a good company & management team. Technically it show signs of accumulation in the support indicators. But the dame gap up makes it hard to see a move north before that gap is filled. Plus the mid term heads & shoulders causes some concern.
If your asking my opinion it would be "do nothing" BUY or SELL until after earning tomorrow and see how investors react. But act fast if there is a strong move in either direction right away. What I would like to see is, with this one, is a slow reaction so I could make a logical trade next week. Rather then having to jump in or out quick "as suggested" on a knee jerk reaction.
I always keep in mind there are many good companies with bad stocks and many bad companies with good stocks. This one seems to be a good company with an average stock. Hence the conflicting signals. I'm feeling with the large institutional positions @ 60% the main investors are longs and the technicals less important over all.
SPX gap chart;
A 3% market correction, as of today, hits @ 2478. If hit, could continue to last large gap @ 2462 fill on momentum.
Don't know when, just that when always happens. BE aware! I'm NOT a market BEAR, just logical. Completely expect a continuation after correction. That's just planning based on market history !!
Evaluate,your portfolio and prepare. All boats trend with markets.
Ps; FAZ 3X bear ETF
I've been noodling in FAZ big, as the S&P stalls on it's unsustainable climb. 235 days without, at least, a 3% correction.
(plus the S&P has several gaps below needing fill. IMO it can't run forever. But NO TALKING HEADS are talking about a NORMAL market correction? WHY???)
Adding another one to strong watch, with MBVX & FAZ.
LQMT has ascending triangle nearing resistance breakout decision point. The past 3 months volume has doubled the previous 3 months. So retail is hanging around this time.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p54112966679
Oh yea; MBVX also has a reverse split in the works, after all their funding deals are over. Oh yea; these funding deals have diluted the Aug 14; 10 mil OS 60%+
MBVX up 23% today. Should see more, play at own risk.
New offering today;
This time offering under a mill shares @ .65. The offer price keeps rising and number of shares lower.
Offerings;
4 mil @ .50 sold in pop (Sept 11 to 21)
2 mil @ .62 setting up to be sold
280k @ .65 next
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MBVX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p02778612564
IMO when all these offerings finish, you'll see a climb back to above the $1.00 delisting level. We'll see?
MBVX update already; Looks like the expected rally will be postponed until after SEPT 27, as the company has made another share offering @ .62, on a little over 2 mill new shares..
From under my tin foil hat I see NO problem this will close, as it seems the SEPT 14th first 4 mil share offering closed, was sold for over 50% profits the past 2 days. If correct; these big guys will be back for more, since the first round of fleas the retail, works so well.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MBVX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14440318562
Moved it to strong watch for a bit.
PS; the fall to 50 cents was because they made a 4 mill share offering @ .50 a share, which close was scheduled Sept 14.
Now they need to get the price back above a buck to keep from a delisting notice from the NAZ.
Another heads up;
MBVX just crossed 1st resistance @ 80 cents. Signaling entry for a single bottom bounce play.
Time to draw your support/resistance lines for play target steps. Check out single bottom bounce play @ my you tube vid.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=lowtrade+%40+you+tube&view=detail&mid=F8CB18A88969682ED9E1F8CB18A88969682ED9E1&FORM=VIRE
MBVX chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MBVX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p86119252172
IMO time to watch and pick up some FAZ again. As soon as the S&P has it's first red day. Play at your own risk! Would love an exhaustion spike to confirm reversal coming.
The S&P stalled with gaps below and FAZ has several gaps above. With FAS with gaps below also.
Remember my rule of thumb: 90% of emotion gaps fill.
My call S&P will see 2470 long before it sees 2510.
Been playing FAS/FAZ for a while, in the market flux, for nice profits.
S&P
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p33273118077
FAS
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p90316840246
FAZ
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p14714224139
Thanks for info. They have had a monthly 14 cent dividend for over 2 years. 18 cents the 2 years before that. That's kind of reliable for a high divvy REIT.
This website is great for dividend stock info.
https://www.dividendinvestor.com/dividend-paid-since/?no=611191
DRYS
Here's what happened. They did a major dilution, then reverse split. https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-shipping-companys-bizarre-stock-maneuvers-create-high-seas-intrigue-1499960367?mod=yahoo_hs&yptr=yahoo
That happened to me on another stock once. When they got done with me. My 1500 shares became 1 share, with a symbol change and major loss for me. LOL Still sitting in my portfolio, would cost more to sell it, in trade fees, then the 1 share is worth.
Another GREAT call. As usual. Thanks for continuing to post heads ups at the board.
I actually use to swing trade DRYS years ago. Made good profits on her. Have no idea what happened to the old trade chart, but it seems it stopped trading and just started up again?
Market flux;
Made 8% since the heads up; day trading FAS/FAZ.
Expect this flux to continue and soon create a heads & shoulders pattern that retraces to around 2350/60 at the S&P.
If correct once the pattern formation breaks down, Day trading FAS/FAZ will become swing trading FAZ.
TRKG
You see these stocks which flux huge daily with little volume often. Waste of time!
Total of $2500 traded the 17th. With 6 actual trades, seen in the time & sales, taking place. Just can't make any money there.
TIP: I just dumped my dividend stock NYMT for ORC. Both REITS. I plan to hold ORC long for the dividend in my portfolio and expect a run soon, on top of that great 17% divvy @ $9.50 basis area. If it gets back to $10, I see a 10% swing trade run soon.
OK it's started. The TA & chart of the S&P has been hinting & shown flux, since mid June. The last gap up and large run was unwarranted. The correction has started. All this will leave the S&P chart with a heads and shoulders chart pattern, which is negative.
Personally plan to take portfolio profits & losses and go to the sidelines. Then back to my old standby. Trading FAS/FAZ, during the time of coming market flux..
Thanks for the return visit. Glad I could help and happy you've found a successful approach to trading.
High candle spike / red day exit example;
You'll notice two where runs continued. Just buy back in once top resistance is broken. No Biggy, all you lost was trade frees. But if it continued down like the others you'd be holding a bag of continuing losses.
This hole thing is about capitol preservation and reducing risk!!
Just an update on my divvy play NYMT. Jumped out yesterday on the first red day of a run. Look what's happening today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NYMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p06088822613
These are Rules of Thumb to remember.
1 Exit a run on the first red day
2 A high candle spike day, in a run, signals exhaustion. Expect a reversal soon.
It's been a while. I'm Chuck; Glad to see your still in the game. Hope your out of the boring OTC (which use to be the wild west LOL)and trading big boards now.
5,10,20 SMA (simple moving averages) used for entry/exit decision assistance.
When the 5 is above the 10 and the 10 is above the 20 it indicates you should be in the stock. They are lined up in order 5,10,20 on bottom.
Reverse and with 20,10,5 on bottom and you should be out of the stock.
Thus crosses present entry and exit indications, that one can use for decisions, along with other TA indicators as support.
When the 5 crosses below the 10, that is an early exit signal. When the 10 crosses below the 20, that is a confirmed exit signal. 5 crossing above 10 early entry. 10 crossing above 20 confirmed entry signal.
This works well with a 3 month chart look. If your nailing down your decision to a 1 month chart, you can use 2,4,8 sma's to zero in better. And if your looking long on 6 month for investing more the swing trading keep them 5,10,20 but change to expediential moving averages from simple. This rounds out the moving average to present a better result.
Below is an example:
Just a note about LQMT's post a little while ago.
I just checked the chart again, as I do from time to time, looking for a new LQMT play. And, this time, it is presenting a Heads & Shoulders pattern. (Negative) Expect a strong retrace (ADX indicator is above 50) when/if the 26 cent neckline is reached. Could see another nickel down to the 21 cent area again. Mentioned this sort of thing happening at LQMT in last post. Well; I expect to see it again.
Take profits if you have them. IMO
Heads & Shoulders pattern;
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_top_reversal
LQMT chart;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92136303176
I think the action @ RDAR is over and was a 1 time thing. IMO the pop you saw was price driven to lower number of shares issued, during the settlement. Odds are NBF dumped as soon as they got them. Otherwise the price would not have fallen back to triple zero's.
???????
But I doubt you'll see more action here.
latest Q report; http://www.otcmarkets.com/financialReportViewer?symbol=RDAR&id=173546
The retail REIT area is not one of the high yield REIT areas. But for the type of investor that invests long term (large) with their a large part of their diversified portfolio, the likes of O is meat & potatoes. And IMO it has just given a huge buying opportunity, for those types. It has a 6 year history of increasing payouts. And that's what drives long term investors to buy and hold. We're talking Buffet types and institution managers.
I, on the other hand, invest long 1 to 3 years) in REITs with as high a ROI as possible, but I also keep a close eye on each, and manage my dividend plays more closely. I'm not a millionaire that's ecstatic with a 5% ROI and looks once a year on a 10 to 30 year hold. For those guys 5% is huge. And large cap stocks are pretty much mandatory.
https://www.dividendinvestor.com/dividend-paid-since/?no=30202
Someone brought USRM to my attention. I'm bringing it to yours.
I'd like to spend a little time about what you should be caring about and what shouldn't be cared about, when you find an OTC play that is interesting, because of a resent price increase.
Most penny players get involved with the PR story. In this case a OTC bio's drug trials. Bull chit! Your should be interested in the price climb. Let the company worry about business goals.
You should be concerned in WHY! Why did the price move higher. Follow the money. Not the story. Not one PR release synced with a price pop!
What caused trading in the stock to jump from dull to exciting. Where did all the volume come from? Research the latest 10Q for Dilution and where the company is getting funds to grow it's business!!!!
In this case the action came from managements dealings with a venture capital firm (VC) not the new action on the FDA's reinstatement for drug trials. The positive thing about this is the VC is not an angle investor, it is a mid tier secured investment firm. It bought part of the companies business, then leased it back. It also is supplying capital for expansion and eventually a large capital investment for stock.
This last part of the dealings is the key to the price action IMO. There is $5 mil @ 7.6 cents a share, at the end of the VC's reward stick. So while this firm is buying assets and supplying growth funding, It's needing share structure changes for the main business strategy to move in.
Thus a boring dull no volume stock, has seen large increases in price and volume. This is not a scam action, to buy the price higher to sell funding shares for profits. It's a business action. To invest into the self healing stem cell therapies industry, by GACP the VC.
I found all kinds of signs that the price action was manipulated by a large entity. There was pre accumulation, shorting, and no news price pop timing. But all this IMO was to reach the 8 cent funding level for future investment. Sure for each price pop there was profit taking. There was also shorting to hedge each price increase attempt from failure. This is why I feel the price action was driven, not generic. Thus I feel 8 cents will be maintained as a bottom, for some time, until the VC decides to actually fund for shares, in it's big $5 mil deal.
This is not a recommendation to buy. It's an educational post to learn to study where the money comes and goes from. Then sync those events to stock price action. To help determine future motives, for price direction, after a stock comes alive.
Will USRM run next week? No idea. Will it retrace? No idea. But I will be watching for volume increases more then anything. Because if you look at the chart. You'll see the big guys have left and it's all little guys volume now.
When you see volume increase the big guys will be coming back and the next play will start. Personally I'm not impressed with the volumes lately. I would think more little guys would be accumulating. And thus I do expect another run for more attention.
Worth a watch with a entry if the flag top resistance is broken on increased volume.
A post about dividend investing:
Actually I've been re-evaluating NYMT. I've held it for a little over a year and a half this time and feel there are more reliable REIT's out there now. Business performance has been luke warm and they lowered their divvy again, last Q payout. The last one was Sept of 2015.
I'm in the process of switching from NYMT to ORC. The trick is timing an exit when NYMT reverses it's retrace and tops out on a new climb while ORC's retrace bottoms.
With dividend stocks it's nice to sell at or above your basis. And enter your new choice at a buying opportunity. When a retrace bottom is seen. Not always in the cards. but that's the goal with a switch.
If your just entering for the first time. Find a good divvy stock at it's lowest price possible. Because this gives you a low basis point for the future returns of their dividend payouts.
Remember it's a different game then trading stocks where you get profits from price increases. Your after the largest divvy ROI and that comes from your basis point (the price you hold the stock) VS the historical payout. You don't care about price runs or walk downs, while holding long term. Because you profits come from the dividend payout vs. your basis.
Example: ORC; you bought in and hold at $10.39 (todays price) and the monthly payout is 14 cents. (has been since July 2015) Your gain is .0135 per monthly payout or 16.2% yearly. (.14 payout / 10.39 basis)
Now say the price runs to $11.50 with the same 14 cent payout. The return gain would be .012 x 12 or 14.6%. At that price level but you hold at $10.39; so while the gain lowers from your 16.2% yearly to 14.6% for new entries. Your still pulling in 16%.
If the price dives to say $8.00 the figures move to .0175 monthly or 21% yearly. Your still getting 16%.
This shows you want to get in as low as possible, as long as the stock has a stable history of payout over a long period of time. And when price dives it's an opportunity to add and lower your basis, thus increase you gain over time.
Every time a dividend plays price retraces below your Basis holding point. You should consider and workout how far adding will help lower your basis. Thus increasing you long term ROI.
The whole key is the longer the payout isn't lowered. The better the stocks reliability. And the more often the stock increases the payout the better also.
You can find this info here: https://www.dividendinvestor.com/
Enter the symbol, then scroll down to "dividends paid since" and click for history of payouts.
Here's ORC history; https://www.dividendinvestor.com/dividend-paid-since/?no=611191
To rap this up I'll say; everyone who intends to play the stock market game, should have a business plan including a portion of their investment cash in a known income factor. And holding a known 15% REIT will double your cash every 5 years using a DRIP (dividend reinvestment plan) That's why I shoot for 15% and switch only when my 15% seems in jeopardy. Knowing you'll double you cash investment every 5 years no matter what happens with your trading success is a comfort long term.
I've trade Liquid Metals many times over several years. It's a stable company & management, with spikes of news events. The way to play it is buy the news and take profits when they present. Because the price always walks down with lack of shareholder support between news events.
Right now IMO the chart is calling for profit taking.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92136303176
May will be a big month for Frontier. FTR
Should hear about Q1, Next divvy early in the month. And shareholder vote on reverse split.
Any one could impact stock price strongly. With the bleed in land line business Q1 may not be improving. But for the present they have enough capital to hold the dividend for a while. IMO the key to price direction will be a reverse split to remove the NAZ delisting concern. Either a 1 for 10 or 1 for 25 split has been authorized by the board. IMO odds are it will R/S into the $20 safe area, when shareholders vote in May.
Another thing to conceder is 70% of the OS is held by institutional. with a HUGE 24% short interest.
So all and all you own a keg of power; with these, I always recommend buying after; NOT before; any price action move. That's why my post called for a price move into the lower gap area before entry. If things go well, you'll see that 2.2 / 2.35 price which could be a 22 to 23.50 area eventually. If not your holding a loss.
LOW risk, buy after, get smaller gain. HIGH risk, buy before, get larger gain or loss. Note my way a loss is removed from the equation.
I've ALWAYS touted LOW RISK. And in this case with what's coming in MAY with an R/S the 20% extra gain from 1.83 (your hold) to my 2.20 entry; will only be 8% if the reverse split comes first. And any loss has plenty of room below after a R/S.
I'd be keeping the institutional involvement in the back of my head! They have positioned themselves with a strong hedge owning 70% and shorting 24% As usual the big guys always cover their ass well. Maybe little guys should also. IMO buy after a shareholder decision is made about all that's happening in MAY.
Good luck.
A buy @ $2.25 looking for $3.25. That's the gaps comeback play.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTR&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p65124381293
pay date for NYMT was Apr. 25th
you can check here;
https://www.dividendinvestor.com/dividend-quote-new/
enter the symbol, then click dividend paid since for all needed info
If anyone is interested in a 15% divvy stock. My old faithful NYMT just presented a buying opp. Down from 6.80 to 6.40.
Just checked BTO again and I still see retail accumulating. Keep an eye on it. I feel with the resent resistance challenge it may break north again soon.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BTG&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42411517270
Happy I took my 8% profits on the gap up peak, at EGO. It just dove -11% Friday. LOL
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EGO&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p81997317431
Price pull down to stock issue price, Feb 27?. On Jan 31 a VC reports 10% or 11 mil shares now owned. With a volume & price pop from Jan 30 to Feb 3. total traded volume about 110 mil. OS was 105 mil pre 11 mil dilution.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ICLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p92478746607
My guess the VC were issued around 1 to 1.5 cents and they already sold up to 3+ cents, in the out of the blue bottom surge. The entire OS doesn't trade over a few days without some darkside manipulation involved!
I think it's over.
There is a lot involved with something like this. There are basically 2 schools of thought, short term.
1. Retail will buy up the price because 20% of the OS being added is valued above todays price.
2. Retail will sell out because of the 20% dilution.
Now comes the variables for long term;
Will the cash raised empower the company growth desired?
Management performance is the main gauge for this. Seen in the EPS Y over Y, gross vs. profit margins, and institutional ownership @ at least 30%, should be over 50%.
A strong/good management can manage the cash to produce results financially! Not a bad long investment.
Weak management and odds are long term goals will not be achieved. Not a good long term investment.
I can't get the needed info for a personal evaluation at Finviz. No listing for EMX or the old symbol EMXX? But short term it's 50/50 up or down and long it's all in managements history of performance. Institutional would show if the big guys like management or not. With the size of their holding. And if big guys are ok with management, little guys should also. IMO 50% or better is a must for a long position with any stock.