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I wonder if physicians will tell their PDE5i users that are experiencing less than wonderful results to use both of the products. Less worry about 'overdosing' and side effects. What one product might not be able to accomplish on its own, the one-two regimen might just do the trick.
I'm sure there are the usual warnings about nitrate users, etc., but maybe a doctor would reduce the 100mg Viagra to 25mg and start the patient on Vitaros. I think the market may be bigger than we think.
After all these years of NOT finding Vitaros on ANYBODY'S website anywhere, I'd say this is a great improvement! I'll even go out on a limb and say that we're witnessing nothing less than the start of a whole new chapter in men's health. So far, that book has only been about the PDE5 inhibitors and the agonizingly invasive injections and suppositories (ouch!). With this dab of cream, a quick and easy way to 'virility' is at hand (no pun intended) without many of the nasty side effects of the pills.
I think the crew on this board is smart and knows how to do dd. I know that patience is a virtue- and many of us have it in spades when it comes to this little company.
The old saying says 'good things come to those who wait.' Well, we've waited and waited and waited some more. It now seems reasonable and plausible to say the wait is almost over.
I can hardly wait to see the full page advertisements for Vitaros in the same magazines that feature the ads for the PDE5i pills. It will happen.
I bet Pascoe and crew will put on a very informative meeting next week. Anyone who got in at $2.10 yesterday is going to be very happy.
I think the visibility of Vitaros in Europe has just come out of the closet. The mention of Vitaros will undoubtedly spark interest in the PDE5i user/potential user community. That interest will be in the form of phone calls to urologists and general practitioners, who, coincidentally, just came back from the huge urological symposium. Was all of this actually planned out by our execs? Maybe there really IS leadership in that exec team.
I think the upcoming quarterly meeting will have good news in many fronts.
Thanks for the link, Binchey. That's quite a bit of copy for Vitaros. Should spark some interest.
At least Recordati has Apricus/Vitaros listed in their partnerships page on their website:
http://www.recordati.com/part/selpartner.aspx?sc_lang=en
Exposure is exposure.
All Pascoe has to say is, "Look, I have to believe in the products I sell, so I took some home to try it out, and it works VERY well!" :) (I was going to say the little dab 'works long and hard' but I thought that was just a bit too gratuitous!)
Let's have a great day. Maybe the run that started yesterday will continue right up to the meeting.
From the SEC:
The federal securities laws do not define the term "quiet period," which is also referred to as the "waiting period." However, a quiet period extends from the time a company files a registration statement with the SEC until SEC staff declare the registration statement "effective." During that period, the federal securities laws limit what information a company and related parties can release to the public. The failure to comply with these restrictions generally is referred to as “gun-jumping.”
On June 29, 2005, the Commission voted to adopt modifications to the registration, communications, and offering processes under the Securities Act of 1933. Among many other provisions, the rules update and liberalize permitted offering activity and communications to allow more information to reach investors by revising the "gun-jumping" provisions under the Securities Act.
____________________________________
Now to make my point. The 'quiet period' is operative from between the time a registration statement is filed with the SEC and the time it is published and available to the public.
As far as we know, APRI isn't issuing any stock this week, so there really isn't a quiet period in effect that could be causing this news blackout.
With no quiet period, the silence is self-induced. Now why would Pascoe, et al., do this? Might they have nothing to say? It's possible, but we know the company had income the first quarter and the EU symposium was held where 10,000 physicians were entertained. We do know that Takeda has received product in commercial quantities (whatever that might mean).
I think the company is mum so that this quarterly release will have some bang for the buck to it.
I expect the execs to discuss the symposium, revenue, timelines for the Canada product source to be online, partner schedules for product sales, movement on Femprox (if any), etc.
If they aren't too specific, I would expect the professional analysts in on the call would ask some tough questions. One of which would be, 'Many of your shareholders hold more shares individually than all of the execs combined; could you please tell us why you take (many would say), inflated salaries, yet don't seem to have enough faith in the company to buy its common stock in any real quantity? You award yourselves tens of thousands of options to reward yourselves with stock appreciation when (and if)it happens, but have no risk whatsoever in case it doesn't. Do you think that is fair to the shareholders, the owners of the company?'
We can hope, right? (Yeah, I know they never will.)
Anyway, my gut tells me they just want to have some positive news for the meeting, nothing else. We shall see.
Mulhall has some videos on the MSKCC website.
http://www.mskcc.org/cancer-care/doctor/john-mulhall
He's brilliant and articulate. Watch them. I doubt a physician of his caliber would have done the symposium if he wasn't absolutely convinced that the trial showed efficacy and that this product would help many men.
I look at the current price as a buying opportunity. (Which I did yesterday at 2.15. A big chunk of that was me.) This 'quiet period' before the quarterly is annoying, but I'm hoping it will end with Pascoe announcing something definitive. Now to get some yard work done!
Roberta- I agree completely.
Gang, let's all agree to be civil to each other. Since we can't read Pascoe's mind, any discussion here is simply 'gentlemen, place your bets.'
All of us have our reasons for being in this stock. Whether it's strictly a for trade, an investment, or maybe a possible future user of the stuff, for one reason or another, our dd has brought all of us to be shareholders, at one price or another.
We all want the company to be successful. We all want the price to finally, after many years of false starts, to climb to its true value. I think we are close. If that comment about a June launch is accurate, we're all in for a great summer. If it takes a bit longer, then our ski trips to Aspen (or the Bahamas) will be paid for.
APRI has 3 arrows in its quiver. The first arrow, Vitaros, is in the bow and the bow string is being pulled back, about to fire. The second arrow, Femprox, is being honed. The third arrow, DDAIP, is waiting on deck, to be marketed and partnered with every drug, cream, lotion, etc, that is sold to humans. Who's to say that Oil of Olay or Clearasil might not be twice as effective with DDAIP?
With all that said, if a suitor comes offering $4 for this pipeline, with the stock price in the low $2, the BoD would have to very seriously consider it. A large stockholder who has a low cost basis, could bring action against the BoD for not doing its fiduciary duty by not accepting a price with such a large premium.
In any event, I'm holding and buying more. At these prices, I see maybe 15% downside risk against 200- 300% upside potential (or more). That's a risk/reward ratio I'll take any day.
I trust that Pascoe, Cox, Martin, and Morton have a plan. The next few weeks and months will show us if they have the tenacity, skill, and ambition to make it happen.
I mean, really, would you let a million options stay underwater when it was in your power to make them worth many millions of dollars?
Dave- your numbers are similar to what I came up with; a stock swap for 5 or 6 shares for 1 of AUXL. I'd prefer the company stay independent for a year or two to see what they can really do on their own, but having some deeper pockets and more experienced leadership could prove attractive to a quick takeover. Existing APRI execs would, I'm sure, be well taken care of, and might even stay on to run APRI as a separate division within AUXL.
Again, this is just thinking out loud. I'd really prefer the launches happen and the company shows what it can do.
Auxilium got hit hard yesterday- new target price of $15. They may be in need of a potential blockbuster to regain their heady valuation. And Morton just came from there. A $4 tender could put Vitaros and Femprox in their basket of goodies. It's a big jump from the current price but ignores huge future possibilities.
From a company perspective, an almost 100% premium to the stock price makes them look good, even though many shareholders would experience a loss. The exec team gets some real gravy on their options and they get to say they made the company ripe for a buyout on their resumes.
I hope they don't give up the ship too easily. I'd really like to see some recurring income get the pps up to the high single digits or more.
Isn't it strange, that with all the elected professional boards, companies still make terrible decisions? I would have to say that a run-of-the-mill shareholder representative added to the board couldn't possibly make the decision processes any worse!
I wonder if we can propose a resolution for next year's annual meeting that a Joe-average-stockholder should be appointed to the board?
He would need to be on the compensation committee as a voice of reason, even if his vote was in the minority.
Maybe the top 20-30 posters here hold a combined 10% of the company. If we all agreed to vote a certain way, we might just be able to pull it off.
It seems appropriate as many of us hold more purchased shares of the company than all of the executives combined. Just a thought...
A bit more info on current and future British pharmacology activity can be found at http://www.ukmi.nhs.uk/activities/newProducts/default.asp?pageRef=10
Take a look. Maybe a familiar name will show up very soon!
I think many of us here own more shares than some of the 'institutions' and funds. Some fund manager can take a few thousands dollars and take a miniscule position on a flyer; if it pans out, he looks smart, if not, not much damage.
Many of us have followed and invested in this company for years, after doing as much dd as we could. We believe this product has a segment of the ED market which nobody else is filling. There have been plenty of times we wanted to pull our hair out with the dumb moves the company has made over those years. And even more times we wanted to scream, "I'm mad as hell so stop wasting company money! Stop playing Monopoly with our company!"
With the replacement of the previous CEO, I believe the 'damage' (pun intended) was halted. The ducks are lining up.
It will be investors like us, those with thousands and tens of thousands of shares that move the stock that will attract new buyers. There's not a huge number of shares in the float, so buying pressure, when sales begin, will really move the stock.
After so many false starts, the show, to which we have all bought our tickets, is about to start.
KCF, I believe that $3 open will happen sooner than we think. With APRI being a 21 employee company, everyone knows everything about what's going on with the partners, delivery schedules, etc.
I'm not sure how any of the people could make an open market buy without it being challenged as an 'insider information' trade. Maybe they can set up monthly automatic buys, but even that would appear suspect if the next day Vitaros shows up on drug store shelves.
The generous option grants may be the only way they could allow the execs to participate in stock appreciation- after all, they still have to buy the stock when they exercise.
I totally agree, SB.
I think we can all agree that the previous CEO got carried away with playing 'company president' and some of his faults were internalized by the BoD; the pay packages, the option awards, the bonuses, etc. With the current ongoing vote, the Board knows that there are keenly interested stockholders watching their every move and that without real measurable progress, their tenure here may be short-lived.
The BoD and executive team are very well compensated- so much so that, unless retail sales are initiated in at least two countries this year, they should not be expecting any increases in compensation next year. Pay bonuses for exceptional performance, not for just 'meeting expectations' of their job descriptions.
I know several big pharma divisional managers that would jump to take over the CEO slot of APRI. Managers that have chaperoned their drug candidates from P1 to P3 and into commercial success in the time it has taken APRI to almost get Vitaros to market.
The handwriting is on the wall. As the owners of this company, we expect our elected officers and executives to act professionally and fiscally and fiduciarily responsibly.
That means next year's CEO comparator companies must be companies that truly resemble APRI in size, income, expenses, etc. If they are not, all members of the compensation committee should be removed from their positions for not performing their fiduciary duties. (Maybe we can claw-back their compensation, if necessary.) Next year's stock option awards, if any, must be based on exceptional performance and must have an exercise price of 125% of the stock price on the day of the award. No more low hanging fruit for executives that care not to reach higher.
I agree with JSB. I looked over the 'peer' companies and the board cherry picked some doozies. The word 'integrity' comes to mind in reviewing these comparators. (As in, the BoD doesn't have any integrity by selecting such mediocre companies to base fair compensation on.)
That said, Auxilium, where Morton just came from, is incorporated in Delaware. Might make it easier for AUXL to make a play for APRI. Just thinking out loud.
That's funny! I had last year's Nov 2.50 calls....and they expired as all the announcements amounted to nothing.
But I have to agree with you that, this time, they now look more attractive and, on a pullback, would be a decent trade to make. Seven months for Takeda to put something on the market with what we know about shelf life issues? I think they have to put it out for sale very soon. I'd hate to be the seller of the calls when the stock goes to $6 and all he got was 50 cents!
Of course, the 50 cent option premium, plus the .11 cap gain to 2.50 (from current price), would give a total return to the seller of 25.5%. Not bad for 7 months. Actually, as a safe income play, this would be a great idea. The 50 cent option premium would bring the cost basis down to about $1.89- which I really doubt we're going to see again. You give up 'unlimited' upside for a known 25.5% return. Is Monty Hall in the house?
Thanks to everyone for their comments. It was an interesting discussion. We'll just have to see how it plays out. Anybody live within an hour or two of the meeting site? Would be great to have a real shareholder 'representative' on site.
Anyone in (or near) San Diego on May 15th to attend the meeting in person? I wonder what 'Other business that may come before the Board' might entail?
Would be interesting to hear comments from a shareholder attending the meeting- body language, inflections, etc., of the speakers. I wonder if any of the institutions that have positions will have anything to say?
Hey SB, I wonder if they're calling all shareholders? Is there any intrigue going on? I don't believe anyone would have a problem with the new auditor. But maybe you're on to something- some really large holder is balking at one of the resolutions and the company wants to be sure it will be passed.
I just (3 minutes ago) got a phone call from Apricus asking me to vote for the annual meeting resolutions! She said that if I hadn't already voted, which I had through my brokerage, I could do it online and she'd facilitate it!
In all my years (35+) of owning many, many stocks, that has never happened to me. Has anyone else gotten this call today?
I wonder how they got my phone number?? I guess they want everything to pass on one vote- no extra expenses.
11,700 shares traded by 10:27. Wow! Nobody is selling and buyers are trying to limit in to save a penny or two. A couple months from now (or sooner), saving a penny or two today will look like the dumbest thing you ever did. "I missed a $1.20 run for 2 cents! Arrgh!" (Don't feel bad, we've all done it.) But the object of these boards is to learn from our collective experience. So if you are considering buying this stock, just put in a market order and put it under your belt for a few months. You'll pay the ask, but you'll be sure to own the stock. Can't make a double, triple, or home run if you never step to the plate and take a swing.
Hi GTP. You are correct that the option to abstain is available on the ballot. My concern is that it sends an "I don't care" message to the Board.
Would you abstain if the proposed auditors were Duwee, Cheetham, and Howe?
Given the opportunity to say Yes or No, we shouldn't abdicate our responsibility as the owners of this company to make the decisions. When we abstain, others will make the decision for us.
Happy Easter to all. (My wife will kill me for being on the computer today!)
We can't have anyone abstaining in the voting. It's our company and we need to make our desires known. It's up to us to have future items brought to a vote. We can offer up company-altering questions that get voted upon next year.
Such as:
1) Future option grants must have an exercise price of at least 125% of the share price on the day the option is granted.
2) Option grants shall be voted on by the shareholders.
3) Salary and bonuses shall be formulated by the Board and approved by shareholder vote.
Now the Board will, of course, recommend a vote 'against' these sort of items, because it limits their power. But a hefty show of 'for' votes would show them that we are watching them closely and expect performance for the remuneration they receive.
Let's face it, if Pascoe et al. can get the shares to $4, $5, $6, or $7 a share, nobody will be voting 'no' for anything. But it's good for us to show that we are actively paying attention to the executive team and the BoD.
Absolutely, SB. No worse feeling than having a stop get you out of a trade, only to see the shares recover and surge to new highs! (Been there, done that!)
This is not the stock for tight stops. There will be more ups and downs in the future, but ups will surely outgun the downs in the months to come. Good fortune to us all!
Anyone who got in today at 2.24-2.26 made a nice trade. Lot's of 2000, 3000, and 4000 shr trades. With the arrival of the good news, I think all the owners from $3 to $5 will stay the course to see if they can pull the rabbit out of the hat, and get back to even and then make some money. (That's how I'd play it. No reason to bail now with the first hurdle finally crossed.)
We may have some day traders bounce the price around, (7% return today for a few hours? I'd take it),but I'd look at that as just a great opportunity to add to a position.
I'm holding until there's a clear reason not to, and I don't see anything like that, not even on the horizon. To everyone who bought between $2.00 and 2.60, I think you can safely add to your position anywhere in this area. A year from now, we'll do a 'duh!' wondering why we didn't!
With a solid close today, it'll make everyone's 'Percentage Gainers' lists. That should make a lot of people take a good look at APRI. And once it's over $5, funds will be able to get involved.
With 'hard' news now published, investors (and traders) will see where this stock came from, what it did on 'soft' news (sorry, couldn't help myself!), and make future projections. As a short term trade, I think this will be a great play. But for anyone who wants to re-fund an IRA or make a 10-bagger, I think putting this away for a year or two will be the best trade some of us will ever make.
Those million and a half options dangling in front of Pascoe and the board suddenly look like low-hanging fruit, easily pushed way past their exercise prices.
At the symposium, I wonder if something was said, and Pascoe and partners asked for the attendees to keep it to themselves until an announcement was made?
Maybe the reason no insider buys have been made is that they knew what was on the schedule- so any buys could conceivably construed as insider trading and get them into trouble. No buys, no appearance of impropriety. So they hand out options as a way to participate in the stock action.
I'm happy. A year from now let's meet in Hawaii!
Ok, my friends, anyone make 'the best trade is the most difficult one to get into' trade yesterday? That $1.90-ish area may never be seen again!!
Ok, timeout. The "they-will" and the "they-won't" camps need to take a breather.
Let's look at a few obvious facts. The population of the country is getting older every minute. Those older folks (and semi-older folks, me included) will need and use more drugs than any previous cohort. Where will those drugs/biologicals come from? The biotechs. Does anyone really think that when CUR announces a cure for brain cancer the stock will stay at $3? (You can change that ticker to anyone you particularly like.)
We're looking at a chance to buy in at wholesale prices right now. No more 'retail' for those willing to pull the trigger.
A famous trader once said, "The best trades are always the most difficult to make." Sure, we're all a bit nervous about APRI going under $2. But look at it this way, the executive teams' options are useful only as toilet paper right now. They have the opportunity to turn that toilet paper into many many millions of dollars, just by helping the partners do what they do best- commercialize and sell product.
Maybe that's why they issued them with 10 year expirations, instead of the usual 3 or 5- they know this will be a slow rollout. But as the PDE5 users begin to understand that putting something directly on the pecker is more effective than using some systemic drug that has many side effects, the rollout will begin as a trickle and develop into a river.
As the trader said, "The best trades are the most difficult to take." Are we buying a falling knife? That's the difficulty here. But say, for the sake of argument, you do buy here, and a rollout is announced in the third or fourth quarter. Do you think it will remain below $2? I don't.
What happens if you see massive insider buying here? Would that reassure you? Probably. But it's been proven that insider buying and selling is only a mediocre predictor of future price movement.
So it comes down to the story. Do you believe the product has a valid use in the public domain? I say it does. Do you believe the company has all their ducks lined up in a row? I think we all can say, 'no' but that the picture is getting better. Maybe the exec team isn't up to the task. Morton was brought in to correct that.
We need to give the company another quarter or two or three to see what happens. I mean, really, would any partner willingly
go along with this company if they thought there was no chance of making money from it? Would they give them millions of dollars in up-front fees? Any one of the partners could have their B-Team legal dept destroy the company overnight, if they thought Apricus was a miniature version of Enron. They haven't.
So we have lots of willing partners who have paid APRI millions of dollars for contracted obligations. Physicians have put their reputations (and those of their institutions) on the line. We need to be patient. (And for those looking to make a great trade, buying in a frightening environment. The best trades are the hardest to make.)
10,000 urologists X 500 patients each = 5 million patients
5,000,000 X .10 (% of patients w/ED)= 500,000 patients w/ED
500,000 X .25 (% of patients wanting to try Vitaros)= 125,000
125,000 X $50 (total price of 1 prescription) = $6,250,000 sales
30,000 (repeat users) X $50 X 6 (refills per patient)= 9Mil rev
So,
6.25 mil + 9.0 mil annual rev = 15.25 mil rev to partners.
How much does APRI charge per script? Then they mention low double-digit royalties. 12% - 15% of sales?
These are just blue sky numbers- maybe the average urologist has a thousand patients. Maybe EU insurance plans suck and only pay $30 per script. Maybe a user will love it so much they'll have 10 refills a year. Lots of unknowns until the product has been out for 6 months.
In any case, the revenue numbers are in the tens of millions which means APRI should have some actual recurring income, also in the millions. (yeah, I have too much time on my hands today..)
Nobody has a brother-in-law urologist practicing overseas?
Anyway, here's a link to a the exhibition part of the symposium: http://www.eaustockholm2014.org/uploads/sto14.eau.code.nl/site_paragraph_downloads/34/file/41332_Stockholm_2014_Exhibition_Guide_HR.pdf
You'll see that most of the partners that APRI has deals with have booths in the exhibition hall. Does that mean they mentioned Vitaros? Who knows. One can only hope that APRI supported those partners. Maybe APRI should have had a booth themselves- especially since they were giving a separate talk on Vitaros.
It does seem that this was the opportunity of APRI's lifetime to make some grand announcement in concert with the partners that were there. Something has to come of it.
From the Symposium website:
The Annual EAU Congress
Regularly taking place since the 1970s, the EAU’s Annual Congress is one of the largest medical events in Europe. It brings together over 10,000 delegates from 80 countries for five days of informative discussion, education and presentation. Parallel to the regular congress, the EAU Nurses have their own programme. Highlighting the international nature of the EAU, the congress begins with a day devoted to “Urology beyond Europe”. This collection of joint sessions involves the EAU and all of its sister urological associations the world over.
__________
Hopefully SOME of those 10,000 stayed around for the Apricus discussion. Too bad there isn't a transcript of the session. Somebody MUST have given SOME indication of availability.
I wonder if any of the local press stopped in to see what the latest medical news had to offer?
I think the company needs to borrow Brylcreem's old marketing tag line: 'A little dab will do ya!' (For those of us old enough to remember our moms putting this goo in our hair before some church or family function!)
The miniscule volume is really something to watch. Looks like anyone who knows anything about the company is willing to hold on and see what the symposium has to offer. Maybe this is the calm before a 'storm' of good news. We can hope, right?
Please fellows, let's keep this forum professional. No talk about the erection of barriers that might keep this product from receiving firm orders from the various partners. No childish humor about the company's turgid position on discussing when the mythical product will actually have a climax of physician acceptance. We could discuss the handy job that our executive team is performing at this symposium. I'm sure their oral ability will stimulate the doctors into an orgy of intimate discussions. And if by chance there are samples to be handed out, we must restrain ourselves from talking about saluting the throbbing event, even though it would be a gusher of great news.
So like I said, let's keep this professional.
Does anyone really think these well-regarded MDs would voluntarily make themselves look like idiots in front of hundreds of their peers by promoting a product that doesn't exist or won't be available for another year?
"Hey, Dr. Joe, how's the boner cream coming along? You still in the foreplay stage?" What was that Carly Simon song? Anticipation? Do you really think that the physicians, when asked (and they will be asked), "So when is this miracle going to be available?" are going to say, "I don't really know, not a clue, nobody has told me..."
What ever credibility they create during the presentation will be destroyed, possibly for good, if they don't announce a real availability date, which is why I believe they will.
If they don't, they just become the Boner Cream Company that couldn't perform. Pascoe and crew have over a million and a half options dangling in front of them. They have every reason in the world to get this stock to $10/shr. At 2.17, those options are absolutely worthless. With a launch, Pascoe becomes a millionaire (maybe multi-millionaire)overnight. You think he's going to let that slip away?
Thanks. They can't take the slightest risk of looking like fools with this group of physicians, which is why I believe some announcement of a definitive launch date will be made.
They simply can't 'cry wolf' any longer, "It's going to launch today, er, next week, ah, next month, um, next quarter, uh, we don't know..." and expect to have any credibility with these doctors. Pascoe and crew know this. Everything has to come together this week.