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Bowins- isn't it ironic with EGY % TGA
Bobwins- isn't it ironic that when EGY was over $5, TGA was only $2.50- and now EGY is $4 and TGA is almost $6- and yet EGY always looked to be the better choice from a valuation standpoint. Wade
SWTX- classic sell now, ask questions later
I've called the company several times, but haven't been able to talk with anyone. The CFO and CEO won't be back till monday. Thing is, like Hweb said last night, the 8K was not consistant with what they said in their last CC, and it also wasen't clear on what time period they were referring to when they said single digit growth "into 2005". I mean what does "into 2005" mean- this quarter, next quarter, or quarter over quarter(which could mean over 30% growth)- and are they talking single digit gowth year over year or starting from the latest quarter? Very ambiguous, and hence the big selloff this morning, of course assuming the worst. From my view, I'm not selling a stock which looks to make $.35 EPS or better for 2005 and is selling for $1.30-$1.40. Wade
biegledog-
Biegle- look right above the messages on the same page- Bobwins lists websites- I use Kitco-
beigledog-
Copper is going for $1.42 per pound right now, which is near a recent high, but many forecast it could go into the $1.70s yet this year. China still has huge demand, and overall world demand sould remain higher than overall world supply well into the secnond half of 2005 or maybe even into 2006. Wade
researcher-
Hi Re- Go to the TGB message board on Yahoo and read the posts from yesterday Part 1 and 2 about copper prices. Some pretty big names and companys are predicting that demand will outweigh supply all the way through 2005 regardless of additonal production, and that prices will likely even rise from here. Wade
RRainman- copper demand is more than supply
RRainman- copper demand will outweigh supply in 2005 according to every article I've read. I don't know why TGB isn't acting better, but I'm holding as I think copper prices will stay high all year and TGB will show some nice profits in the Mar qtr. Wade
DonsHub- "The Talking Heads" lyrics - that's funny
DonsHub- very funny. Wade
shmolton- here's what I don't get
shmolton- if you look at the gross profit % expectation for SWTX, it is actually higher than in the third qtr. Therefore, it makes no sense to me that they would project a lower Net Income % for 2005 than in the third qtr. Also, that's not even considering the one time charge of $.5M in the third qtr. If that were taken out, then net income would have been an even higher % in the third qtr. Too many inconsistancy's here- company must be contacted and these concerns should dealt with. I am not making any definite assumptions at this point. Wade
SWTX- panic has ensued- but I think $.35 EPS for 2005
I think the selloff of SWTX this morning puts the PE going forward at around 3. Even if people's assumptions are right and they are only growing in the single digits, they should still make $.30- $.40 for 2005 and here's why. They made $.07 for the last qtr, which included a one time charge of $.5M. If you take that charge out, they would have made $.087 for the quarter. Now, even if you only assume single digit growth over that, then they would average at least $.09 or so/qtr for 2005. That would be $.36 EPS for 2005. I think it's very important to see what the company says about all this. Hopefully we'll get back some info later today. In the meantime, this could be a good buying opportunity even if only for a short term pop. Wade
SWTX- important to get more info from the company
I think a lot of sellers could be jumping the gun a bit this morning. If they simply meant single digit revenue growth into the next quarter, then it has a totally different meaning than single digit growth for all of 2005. It is important to get the information from the company themselves and not make any definite assumptions here. Wade
Hweb- SWTX
Hweb- just reading gilead23's post about the presentation today of SWTX at the Needam conference. Apparently, they are only projecting single digit growth for 2005- now that sucks after they hinted of huge growth recently. I mean, even if they make $.08-$.10 per qtr, with just about no growth, they would only demand a PE of 5 or so. If that were the case the stock may not do anything from here. Am I wrong here? Wade
Shewww - one tough market lately!
Down 7% over the last 2 weeks. Seems like nothing I have wants to go up, and I'm diversified in many sectors to boot. Oh well, maybe things will turn back around. Come on CPTC with that China contract- or how about SWTX and PDGE both showing $.11-$.14 next earnings- yea, that's the ticket. Hope springs eternal. Wade
SWTX- anyone know when earnings are coming out?
thanks- Wade
Hweb- meant PIHC
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Hweb- PHIC
hweb- I like PIHC very much, but I'd like to ask you about the balance sheet. They show around $3.8M on the books for goodwill and intangables. If you take them out, then they have would $10.8M in assets and $8.45M in liablitites as of Sept 30.( most of which is current). Thing is Hweb, I always look at the balance sheet as being a measure of the probability of dilution, and I do see a good possibility of that here. The good part though, is that they only need another $6M or so to for the balance sheet to look healthy, and that would likely only amount to a 25% dilution- and maybe less if they continue to have growing earnings and pay down some of the debt with that. Hweb- the growth potential here looks very good, but wouldn't you figure in a probable few million shares dilution because of the balance sheet? thanks- Wade
Bobwins- DAAT
Bobwins- just wondering if you still have your DAAT, and what you think of the stock at present. Some say, they will make at least $.30 for 2005, but even so, they seem very fully valued to me. In fact, the stock seems valued to perfection. What chance do you give them of coming out with some new blockbuster less than lethal product that would hugely boost earnings? thanks- Wade
Researcher- thanks
Re- Thanks for your viewpoint. IPII does look tempting- wish I had more funds right now- I like what I have a lot too.
Researcher- meant between IPII & ACRG
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Reasearcher- let me ask you
Re- Just wondering what you think of the following: ERS,PIHC,ACRG,BSIC,TGCI,IPII. Also, since both are tied in to the housing sector, which would you pick between IPII and TCGI? thanks- Wade
Researcher- Re: PDGE
Re- I would have like to have seen at least some of the $3.5M awarded to mold removal. I mean, I'm pretty sure mold removal has much higher margins than asbestos removal- wade
It's all about timing- sorry, math was off
I didn't think through the math too well in my last post. Much more complicated than I thought. There are a huge amount of assumptions one has to make in order for it to work out the way I presented it. See ya tomorrow. Wade
It's all about timing
I don't care what the big boys say about timing a stock- I say that you can time stocks more than 50% of the time. I mean, all you have to do is be right 51% of the time and you can make money. However, I believe that with enough knowledge of a stock, one can be right more than 60%. Thing is, market conditions do matter. I mean, the saying that the market can make you look like a genius or a fool is true. Therefore I should qualify my statment to say, that as long as we are not in a bear market, you can time stocks 60% of the time or better. Another thing to point out is that timing a stock 55% of the time will only make you 10%, and if it takes a year to be right, then that's not that great. However, if you're right 60% of the time, then you can make 20%, and that's not a bad return for a year. I myself am shooting for 40% on my net per year, so I'll have to be right around 70% of the time. Hey, I can dream, can't I? good luck- Wade
Bowins- EGAM
Bob- here is one I used to own- lucked out and got out at $1.50. They had the misfortune of having one of their biggest retailers signifigantly decrease the shelf space of their $9.99 PC games. This hurt them bad last qtr. and into the forseeable future. However, I like the management over there, and EGAM is attempting to gain revenues in the online gaming arena, and with new PC games in the higher priced categories. I don't know if they can overcome the hit on revenues from their sharp decrease in sales of their least expensive PC games, but they are trying. I like the fact that they are buying back $500K of their own stock, and their balance sheet is excellent. Bob- what do you think of this one at $.58? Wade
oildesk-
oil- insider sales in general don't mean a lot if you see selling by that insider consistantly from lower to higher prices. When I looked at this particlar persons track record, it appears they've been selling from in the $1s into the $5s. Check out the CFO of NVR- he's been selling while the stock kept going up and up for as far back as Yahoo shows since 2003. Wade
Bobwins- thanks
I defer to your opinion Bob- you know much more than I about mining stocks. Hope you're right about holding off on buying the refinery till 2006. As you said, it gives a lot more time for share price appreciation and positive cash flow to help with things. I also think, when there is dilution, it would be taken easier if they prove themselves and build stockholder confidence in the meantime. Wade
Bobwins- Re: TGB
Bob- I can't remember whether it was for refinery equipment, but a figure of around $100M was being tossed around for purchasing something in the future. Sure hope you're right about that not happening till share price is higher, as dilution would be massive if it was done now. However, I do believe they'll be dilution by end of year, and it will likely be substantial even if share price goes to $3. I think we'll see at least 50M more shares by end of 2005. Even so though, if copper can stay at $1.40 and moly at $35, then TGB could still make around $.30 for 2005 assuming even assuming 175M shares fully diluted. Therefore, I do see a double here if prices hold. A little risky though, because the bet appears to be that both copper and moly prices hold, and everything else goes as planned at the mine. Wade
Bobwins- TGB
Bob- called the company. It appears they presently have 125M shares fully diluted. Also, they talked of buying more equipment. Sounds like a more dilution coming IMO, or a some kind of addtional debt to pay for equipment. Bob, to be on the safe side, I am going to assume some substantial dilution. I believe there could be 200M shares fully diluted during 2005. If I'm right, EPS would have to be revised to around $.25 fully diluted for 2005 based on $1.40 copper, and $35 moly. What do you think- Wade
Hweb- SVLF
Hweb- are you familiar with this one? Time share resorts- low PE, but slow growth. what do you think of this one? Wade
TCCO- anyone familiar
Hey, at least I can say that higher interest rates will likely not affect this company. Super low shares outstanding- around 1.4M total, and great balance sheet, but there is no consistancy with their earnings qtr over qtr. I wonder how much they can build the business from here. I'll tell you what, with this tiny float, if this company keeps growing nicely, katie bar the door. Anyone have any predictions for TCCO over the next year?
Bobwins- post 1208 correction- meant SVLF
Bobwins- SVLT & UCIA
Bob- just looked at these two. On SVLT, I guess it's hard to know whether the resorts business is growing or not. They did only increase business by 8% year over year, but low PE, and if they can even continue to grow at 8% the stock looks cheap . UCIA runs urgent care centers and they have their best qtrs in Dec and Mar. Worst qtr seems to be the June qtr. S eems to have grown revenues 9% this last year, and carries a low PE and ok balance sheet. What do you think of these two Bob- thanks-Wade
Bobwins- ACRG
Bobwins- are you familiar with this one. Wholesale distributor for heating, air conditioning, and refridgeration. They have been doing well, but I wonder how a continued downturn in new housing starts(and a continued upturn in interest rates) would affect them. Other than that concern, they are doing great- little bit of a weak balance sheet, but not too bad. Bob- what do you think of this one? thanks- Wade
Lentinman- Re: shrinking PE's
Len- I do agree that the major moves in the majority of BB we have been discussing here happened already in 2004. However, I do not agree that PEs will necessarily shrink in 2005. I feel that what is important to do at this point especially is to find stocks that are healthy and still growing, so a stagnant PE could still result in a decent return. Also, if many stocks that were below $1 are now $2-$3, then there could be a good chance of some of them getting on better exchnages and thus give an additional boost. Also, I could be wrong, but I feel that there are many stocks( like PDGE,SWTX,CPTC,GACF,CGNW,WIRX,CKCM,TGCI,ETEC,ASPN and others) that could still have a double in them even over the next 6 months. I don't know Len, but I'm still excited about the next year and am hoping to do really well. Wade
bobwins- MDF
Hi Bob- I bought in MDF at $.90 and sold off 40% in the $1.50-$2.25 area. I really like the announcement of them applying for seperate HMO status, and am planning on keeping my remaining shares as a core holding at this point. Just wondering- have you sold off many shares on the way up, and are you still excited about their long term prospects? thanks- Wade
MSGI- how's it goin
Hi MSGI- Just cuious- what 10 stocks do you like for 2005? wade
Any guesses on average natural gas price for 2005?
Just curious whether most think natual gas prices are on an increase or decrease. Wade
Rainman9999-
Hi Raninman- I understand that we can't beilieve all the stories of china slowing, but even so, what do you think of my last post about whether the additional risk of being in commodity stocks is worth it. Also- just wondering what your top 10 picks are for 2005. At present, mine are PDGE,SWTX,CPTC,EGY,CKCM,MDF,GACF, and WIRX.
Oil and Gas stocks- basic question
Oil and Natural Gas stocks have performed very well lately, however isn't future upside for these stocks largely dependent on the market prices of those commodities. Now what if oil goes to $30 and natural gas to $4.50- I mean that is possible, and it would put quite a damper on stocks in that sector, and many would go down IMO. Now lets say that oil stays at $40 and natural gas at $7- then I'll assume that many stocks in that sector would maybe double over the next year. Thing is, if you are looking for a double, aren't you better off in a solid company that is growing nicely with a low valuation that could also double over the next year as compared with a commodiity stock in which you have additional risk based on the huge uncertainty of commodity prices. Hey, I'm just asking, because right now I have 20% of my potfolio in commodity stocks( natural gas, oil, and copper), and am trying to be rational about my choices at this point. Also, now that China appears to be slowing a bit, I'm concerned that demand could have peaked and many oil and natural gas stocks may stay stagnent in price regardless of a low PE for the worry of future demand. Would apprecaite any thoughts on the subject. Wade
Hweb- meant PIHC
Hweb- PHIC
Hweb- PHIC seems to be very solid. Not real cheap here, but not bad. Seems like there is much growth potential- do you agree? Wade