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oil has already lost well over half the bump from the close to the peak this morning. Someone is putting the math together.
Right there with ya. just added a few more
On the downside, oil could drop back to 47.40+- today.
I'll bite. JMO but...Looks like a good chance of testing 48.50-48.65 today. If that holds maybe 49.60+ tomorrow. Still believe D will win out over the next few days/weeks to come.
Good luck & good trading.
Give me about 71 minutes. I'll get back to you on that! LOL
Ive been wrong before, but it looks like a down close for U IMO. Based on lower indicators, I'm out of my U trading for the day.
One things for sure, it has been whippy and the brokers must be smiling.
You're braver than me. I just bailed a small position of U at 35.80. I did get a good price at 34.33.
Holding long in D.
On a shorter time frame chart, I'd say swapping might be a good decision. "D" is gapping up now. Nice time for a day trader to snag a profit and switch to "U" when it finds a bottom...
Based on the HOURLY chart..."D" is lookin' pretty good right now. Not so much for "U".
Good luck and good decision-making to everyone!
Totally respect your always being upfront on your plays, and your explanations. Good trading!
Does D continue to build from here today, or does U retrace some of the 12% it lost from yesterday's high until now?
As I stated a couple of days ago, I might trade U if it dips below 34 (which it has) and holds (which it hasn't)and then watch it carefully. Good luck and good tradin!
Sorry you seem to take it so hard. No one gets it right all the time. Tomorrow's another day. Best to you!
Probably meant it for someone else - Mostly newbies (My apologies).
I will say this is/has been a great vehicle for short-term trading.
Anyone thinks this is buy and hold long term needs to look elsewhere. Again JMO
Don't worry, you can always buy U when it comes back up through 34....or 32 or 29 or...
Who says averaging down isn't a legit trading strategy?
All I know is overall trend for oil is down (IMO). Although I do play U for short runs on occasion.
Almost the shortest I've ever been in. Sold the U..enough to cover dinner, and broker fees. Oils headin lower again..
Heck, I even joined the party here. Picked up a few at 35.70...
See how it plays out.
Been playing both, but yes my D could be doing better. No rush though. I'll keep making money on both.
NICE bump!...I'm guessing more to come?
I just want to thank whoever posted the two charts at the top of the page. I suggest everyone trading U or D take a good look at them both. Always good to have an short AND long term picture.
For those of you who use charts as part or all of your decisionmaking, take a look at the two new charts someone kindly posted at the start of the IHUB UWTI discussion board.
The second weekly chart shows the long term trend favoring those in D or those shorting oil.
The first chart, which seems to be more imminent shows the current level of resistance oil has to break through to change the overall downward trend for oil. We are at the level (IMO) where the odds favor oil struggling to establish a bullish foothold. My sense is that once the foothold fails, a lot of U bulls will come running to D. JMO
WTI is at resistance here at least in the range up to around 50.
Daily chart shows a pullback coming, but who knows how long it will take. My best analysis is it should get back to at least 38.
So far looking like a good decision to sell. I'll trade it as long as there is this much price action.
Exactly my thoughts. Might be a bit early, but I bailed here at 35.35, adding to D. Might switch back if U pulls below 34 and holds
In case no one has seen yet...(from Yahoo news)
By Simon Falush
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday as worries about supply disruptions resurfaced after Shell announced the closure of a key Nigerian pipeline.
Brent crude oil futures were up 27 cents at $45.79 per barrel at 1146 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 7 cents at $44.73 a barrel.
Royal Dutch Shell's Nigerian unit, Shell Petroleum Development Co (SPDC), said it had declared force majeure on Bonny Light exports following the closure of the Nembe Creek Trunk line (NCTL) for repairs after a leak.
This disruption to output will likely push Nigeria's production to its lowest in more than two decades, and follows a force majeure on the Forcados crude oil grade which is likely to last until June.
Production declines and disruptions in North America, Latin America, Asia, and elsewhere in Africa have also acted as a support to prices this week.
The latest developments in Nigeria reversed a slight fall in prices earlier in the day after oil sands production in Canada restarted after forced closures due to the wildfires.
Oil sands companies around the Canadian energy hub of Fort McMurray began to restart operations on Tuesday after an out-of-control wildfire forced a week-long shutdown. Provincial and industry officials said production in much of the region should ramp up soon.
The fires in Canada's oil sands field region have knocked out around 1.5 million barrels of daily crude production, leading to a significant tightening of global markets.
But a growing glut is back in the spotlight.
Record-high inventories especially in the United States also acted as a drag on prices.
Industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.45 million barrels to 543.1 million barrels during the week ended May 6, enough to meet global crude demand for almost a week.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release official weekly inventory data at 1430 GMT. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the EIA to report U.S. crude stockpiles likely rose for the fifth consecutive week.
In a sign of a fight for market share, Iran has set its June official selling prices (OSPs) for heavier crude grades it sells to Asia at the biggest discounts to Saudi and Iraqi oil since 2007-2008.
Iran on Tuesday set the June OSP for Iranian Heavy crude at $1.60 a barrel below the Oman/Dubai average in the latest sign that producers especially in the Middle East are willing to accept low prices in return for market share.
(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore; editing by Susan Thomas)
Nice chart! Looks just like mine.
Say, what do you all think of the inverse correlation of crude with the dollar index today? Either a lot of folks trade them off each other or there is a fundamental correlation there.
Next leg up could be 48.49, next leg down 41.97. but which way wins out? I suppose it doesn't matter if you're playing both.
"
Al-Falih spent his entire career at Aramco. He holds a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from Texas A&M University "
Been a long time ago, but I may have been his prof in an Engineering Graphics course or two. What a tiny world we live in.
I agree. This is nuts with the amount of oil out there already.
WTI daily chart is showing a selloff coming. MACD diverging from price, macd histogram in red, stochastics showing failed turn,and rsi is going down like Fraiser.
Good for YOU! Keep workin it.
No confusion on my part. Might stop by and join you when UWTI hits 23.50, 20.50 if it doesn't hold. Good trading!
Great call Kam. I had the week's top pegged at 44.89.
On a daily chart, yep. Not only do I think it will test the 200 day MA, I think it will dip below it. Look at the 12/26 MACD as well, it is diverging from the recent price move in oil.
I'm currently in DWTI, so take this for what it may be worth to you.
I see some support for UWTI at 23.50 and then a little better support around 20.50 .
Good luck trading!
Next level to test is support at 42.50 - 42.10 range (IMO)
Oil is headed lower, maybe test 45 today.
I agree Val. Looking at your chart, USD seems to be at a critical support level, perhaps it can move up from here and bring oil back down with it.
Its over. Doesn't always go to plan.